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The Adult Social Care Workforce: the numbers we all need to know

Dave Griffiths, Skills for Care

The Next Steps in Reforming the Adult Social Care and Support System Conference

Overview• Size and structure

• Recent trends

• Current workforce challenges

• Future workforce challenges

• Adding value to the data

Skills for Care – workforce models• National Minimum Data Set for Social Care (NMDS-SC) soon to

become The Adult Social Care Workforce Data Set (ASC-WDS)

• 100% local authority coverage

• 55% CQC coverage

• Dedicated survey for Personal Assistants

• Peer reviewed by the London School of Economics

The adult social care workforce

Occupational StructureJob groups in adult social care - NMDS-SC

The adult social care workforce

The adult social care workforce

The adult social care workforce

The adult social care workforce

The adult social care workforceReplacement Demand

• Skills for Care estimate that around 390,000 workers leave their role each year.

• 390,000 recruitments at £1,500 per recruitment = £585,000,000 (£585m) per annum.

• Of these an estimated two thirds (260,000) are moving within the sector

• As such we need to find 130,000 new workers each year just to stand still.

The adult social care workforce

110,00076,000

5,1003,000

Vacancy rates

Age profile

Nationality

Jobs

England 104,000

Eastern 14,500

East Midlands 6,000

London 26,000

North East 1,100

North West 5,500

South East 26,000

South West 14,000

West Midlands 6,800

Yorkshire and the Humber 3,900

EU jobs by regionWorkforce nationality by region

Nationality

The adult social care workforce

The adult social care workforceIndependent sector care worker hourly rates by region, NMDS-SC March 2018

Care worker pay vs. Supermarket payCare worker hourly rate – NMDS-SC March 2018, How pay stacks up at the supermarkets - The Grocer

Adding value to the data• Leeds University / National Institute for Health Research (Care homes /

CQC outcomes)

• Personal Social Services Research Unit (Retention and Sustainability of the care workforce)

• Predicting CQC scores using machine learning

• Identifying ‘at risk of leaving’ workers using machine learning

• We are open and want to collaborate on Tableau, Machine Learning, Python, ‘R’, etc.

The adult social care workforce

The adult social care workforce

The adult social care workforce

1,600,000

1,600,000

650,000

950,000

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

65+ model

75+ model

Jobs 2017 Extra jobs by 2035

Total 2.55m

Total 2.25m

Do your own analysis

The adult social care workforce

See more at:

https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/Home.aspx

https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/NMDS-SC-intelligence/Workforce-intelligence/Home.aspx