8 iita pim - gfsf meeting 25-28 may 15 - iita progress
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Global Futures & Strategic ForesightOverview of Progress in 2015
Arega AleneAgricultural Economist, IITA-Malawi
GFSF Extended Team Meeting, 25-28 May 2015, Rome, Italy
Ex-ante evaluation of promising cowpea and soybean technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa
Activity
A foresight modeller has been recruited—will join in June 2015
The DSSAT model has been used to assess the yield effects of promising soybean technologies in Nigeria, but the ex-ante economic impact evaluation has yet to be done using the IMPACT model Geospatial & virtual crop model development and simulations Refine technology scenarios based on the key traits and combination of
traits for addressing major production constraints (biotic and abiotic stresses) Model improvement based on the socioeconomic & technology database
Sub-national production datasets are being assembled from the ministries of agriculture to fill possible data gaps in IMPACT 3 (e.g. cowpea in Mozambique) for improved ex-ante evaluation of technologies
Progress
Expert estimation of varietal adoption of cowpea and soybean has been done for better characterization and ex-ante evaluation of promising technologies
Experimental cowpea and soybean yield data have been obtained from breeders for a range of released as well as promising varieties
Ex-ante impact assessment of cowpea and soybean technologies is under way using the economic surplus model – value proposition for Phase 2 of CRP-Legumes
Much of the work planned for 2015 will be done from June/July 2015 with the leadership of the new foresight modeller
Ex-ante evaluation of promising soybean technologies (e.g. yield potential, rust/drought, enhanced nitrogen fixation, etc.) using the IMPACT model
Progress
For soybean in Africa, there is a lot of interest in understanding the scope and the technology & policy options for import substitution through increased domestic production—e.g. Nigeria and Malawi
20152017
20192021
20232025
20272029
20312033
20352037
20392041
20432045
20472049
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00
Mill
ion
tons
IMPACT Model Baseline Projections
Demand @ 2.7% / year
Production @ 0.2% / year
Progress
Thank You
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