a rapid assessment of climate change vulnerability for conservation & management in new mexico
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A Rapid Assessment of Climate A Rapid Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Change Vulnerability for
Conservation & Conservation & Management in New MexicoManagement in New Mexico
Carolyn EnquistCarolyn EnquistGeorge Wright Society ConferenceGeorge Wright Society Conference
March 14, 2011March 14, 2011
Carolyn EnquistCarolyn EnquistGeorge Wright Society ConferenceGeorge Wright Society Conference
March 14, 2011March 14, 2011
I. Background
II. The Approach
III. Closing remarks & future research
Source: C. AllenOctober 2002 May 2004
Photos: C.D. Allen, USGSPhotos: C.D. Allen, USGS
(PNAS 2005)
Map Source: Hoerling & Eischeid 2007, “Dust Bowl” forecast by Seager et al. 2007, Science.
Future climate projections for the SouthwestFuture climate projections for the Southwest
Graphic: J. Kastner
What does this mean for my
system?
How do I deal with the
uncertainty ANDcomplexity?
Will I be able to meet my goals?
WHERE DO I BEGIN???
Slide: Molly Cross, WCS
The Challenge of Climate ChangeThe Challenge of Climate Change
Graphic: J. Kastner
What are implications for conservation
priorities in NM & Southwest?
How do we reduce
vulnerability & increase
resilience?
How do we prioritize action?
How do we identify
adaptation strategies?
Slide: Molly Cross, WCS
Indentified Framing QuestionsIndentified Framing Questions
Questions: TNC & University of Arizona Workshop for Resource Managers (McCarthy, Enquist & Garfin, Eos 2008)
How do we work together & exchange knowledge?
Approach: An Integrated Assessment Framework
Approach: An Integrated Assessment Framework
1. Rapid regional assessment of climate exposure (Girvetz et al. PLoS One)
Identify observed physical & ecological impacts Analyze recent & future climate exposure
2. Determine implications for conservation priorities (Enquist et al. in review)
Evaluate exposure relative to ‘surrogates of sensitivity’
Develop ‘hypotheses of vulnerability’ Prioritize action at regional level
3. Landscape-scale conservation adaptation planning (Cross et al. in review)
Identifying adaptation options in high priority landscapes
Identify observed physical impactsIdentify observed physical impacts
1. Identify climate-linked physical changes in the West:
• Increased aridity• More rain than snow• Declines in snowpack• Changes in the timing
of peak stream flows
2. Look for evidence of this across the state:
Declines in snowpack (green dots)
(NRCS SNOTEL) Earlier peak streamflows
(blue)(Stewart et al. 2004)
Lines: USGS HUC-8
Population changesMortality & recruitmentShifts in distributions
# Cases: 40
Changes in phenology# Cases: 2
Invasive speciesNon-native & native
# Cases: 5
Altered disturbance regimes Fire, erosion, etc.
# Cases: 2
Identify observed ecological impactsIdentify observed ecological impacts
1991-2005
Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994)
2000-2005
Evaluate recent climate exposureEvaluate recent climate exposure
Composite of T & PPT departures (relative to 1961-1990)
1991-2005
Source: Enquist & Gori 2008, TNC report, www.nmconservation.org
2000-2005
Evaluate exposure + sensitivityEvaluate exposure + sensitivity
Sensitivity Proxies:
• Conservation areas (from ecoregional assessments)
• Drought-sensitive species (across taxa)
Potential vulnerability to climate change
1991-2005
Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994)
Enquist, Girvetz & Gori, TNC report, ms in prep.
winter spring
summer fallannual
Evaluate recent climate exposureEvaluate recent climate exposure
Trend in moisture stress (1970-2006)
Evaluate future climate exposureEvaluate future climate exposure
Base data source: IPCC-AR4, downscaled to 12km by Maurer et al. (2007, Green Data Oasis), http://www.engr.scu.edu/~emaurer/data.shtml
2020-2039 2080-2099
Implications for watersheds & species of concern
Implications for watersheds & species of concern
annual
Less exposure
More exposure
Source: SWreGAP
Select Landscape for Adaptation Planning Select Landscape for Adaptation PlanningGoat Peak pika
Catastrophic Fire (2000)
Post-fire Erosion
Jemez Mountains salamander
Forest dieback
The Jemez Mountains: Bandelier National Monument, Santa Fe National Forest,
Valles Caldera National Preserve, Los Alamos National Lab
Select conservation targetand
Define management objective
Select conservation targetand
Define management objective
Identify intervention pointsand management actions
Identify intervention pointsand management actions
Evaluate actionsEvaluate actionsDevelop
action plan
Implementaction plan
Monitor and evaluate action
plan efficacy
Repeat for:• more targets• more
objectives• more
information
ID info. needs
ID info. needs
Build conceptual
model
Build conceptual
model
Identify future
climate scenarios
Identify future
climate scenarios
Assessclimate change impacts
Assessclimate change impacts
Adap
tatio
n pl
anni
ng p
hase
Implem
entation & evaluation phase
Cross et al, Cross et al, in reviewin review
Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) FrameworkAdaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework
• Identification of adaptation strategies: – local managers & scientists worked
together to break down uncertainty paralysis.
• Transparent process:– Assumptions and logic documented,
justifying specific actions.
• Identified future information/research needs.
• Provided impetus for landscape management:– collaboration and continued dialogue via
formation of informal CC learning network.
Workshop outcomesWorkshop outcomes
Four Corners assessment & workshopsFour Corners assessment & workshops
2. Gunnison Basin
3. Four Forest Restoration Initiative (“4-FRI”)
4. Bear River Basin
1. Jemez Mountains
Robles & Enquist 2011
Glick et al. 2011
Closing remarks & current researchClosing remarks & current research
How do we track the fingerprints of climate change impacts? V= (E + S – AC)
Vulnerability assessment needs to be a dynamic process
“Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007)
Closing remarks & current researchClosing remarks & current research
ScienceAdaptationMitigationCommunication
Acknowledgments Acknowledgments
Dr. Dave Gori (TNC-NM)
Dr. Evan Girvetz (TNC, UW)
Dr. Molly Cross (WCS)
Dr. Gregg Garfin (U Arizona)
Anne Bradley (TNC-NM)
Patrick McCarthy (TNC-NM)
carolyn@usanpn.org
www.usanpn.org
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