a tool for urban air pollution analysis -...
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IInteractive nteractive DDatabase for atabase for EEmission mission AAnalysisnalysis-- IDEAIDEA --
Eri SaikawaEri SaikawaEast Asia RegionEast Asia RegionThe World BankThe World Bank
School of Public and Env ironmental AffairsSchool of Public and Env ironmental AffairsIndiana UniversityIndiana University
August 11, 2004August 11, 2004
A Tool for Urban Air A Tool for Urban Air Pollution AnalysisPollution Analysis
OutlineOutline
�� Context of Integrated Air Quality Context of Integrated Air Quality Management (IAQM)Management (IAQM)
�� Critical Need for Information in IAQMCritical Need for Information in IAQM�� Interactive Database for Emission Analysis Interactive Database for Emission Analysis
(IDEA)(IDEA)�� Case StudiesCase Studies�� IDEA IDEA –– Potential Uses and LimitationsPotential Uses and Limitations�� Future DirectionsFuture Directions
22
Air PollutionAir Pollution�� Environmental degradation is a priority issue Environmental degradation is a priority issue
in the developing worldin the developing world�� Air pollution is a problem which has significant Air pollution is a problem which has significant
socialsocial, , economiceconomic and and environmentalenvironmental impactsimpacts�� Key factors:Key factors:
•• Increasing Urban Population/IndustrializationIncreasing Urban Population/Industrialization•• Growing Vehicular Demand/Domestic NeedsGrowing Vehicular Demand/Domestic Needs
Urbanization is increasingUrbanization is increasing……
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Including in East AsiaIncluding in East Asia……
Health Risks of Air PollutionHealth Risks of Air Pollution
PMPM -- premature mortality, lung, potential effects premature mortality, lung, potential effects on hearton heart
SOSO22 -- respiratory, possibly mortality effectsrespiratory, possibly mortality effectsCOCO -- circulatory system, Heartcirculatory system, Heart
OO33 -- respiratory system, lungrespiratory system, lungNONOxx -- respiratory, precursor of Orespiratory, precursor of O33
PbPb -- nerv ous system, brainnerv ous system, brain
44
Air pollution impacts Air pollution impacts many urban areas in Asiamany urban areas in Asia
00
5050
100100
150150
200200
250250
300300
350350
400400
Bangko
k
Bangko
k
BusanBusan
Chongqi n
g
Chongqi n
g
Colombo
Colombo
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Jaka rta
Jaka rta
Kolkata
Kolkata
Manila
Manila
Mumbai
Mumbai
New D
elhi
New D
elhi
Osaka
Osaka
PunePune
Singapore
Singapore
Seoul
Seoul
Shangh
ai
Shangh
ai
TokyoTokyo
conc
entra
tion
in
conc
entra
tion
in µµ
g/m
g/m
Source: Information collected from national and local governmentSource: Information collected from national and local governmentagencies through CAIagencies through CAI--Asia network, 2003, detailed sources available from CAIAsia network, 2003, detailed sources available from CAI--Asia Secretariat Asia Secretariat
SO2 Limit = 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
NO2 Limit = 40 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
SPM Limit = 90 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
PM10 Limit = 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
How can this be How can this be addressed effectively?addressed effectively?
�� Recognition of problem and management Recognition of problem and management optionsoptions
�� An integrated air quality management An integrated air quality management (IAQM) approach(IAQM) approach
�� Adequate knowledge base and analytical Adequate knowledge base and analytical toolstools
�� Effective collaboration across stakeholders Effective collaboration across stakeholders towards a shared goaltowards a shared goal
55
Key elements of IAQMKey elements of IAQM
SourcesSources
Air QualityAir Quality
ImpactsImpacts
Integrated Integrated Air Quality Air Quality ManagementManagementPolicy Policy
OptionsOptionsTechnical Technical OptionsOptions
OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES�� Focus on key Focus on key
pollutants (e.g. finepollutants (e.g. fineparticulates)particulates)
�� Improv e Improv e understanding of understanding of key pollution key pollution sourcessources
�� Assess impactsAssess impacts�� Analysis of Analysis of
alternative alternative management management strategies/optionsstrategies/options
Economic Economic OptionsOptions
Typical constraints for IAQMTypical constraints for IAQM
�� Systematic Systematic collationcollation of existing data and of existing data and informationinformation
�� UpUp--toto--date and consistent date and consistent database database (on (on pollution sources and ambient levels, pollution sources and ambient levels, impacts, and responses) and effective impacts, and responses) and effective integrative integrative analytical toolsanalytical tools
�� Stakeholder interactionStakeholder interaction and and institutional institutional capacitycapacity
66
Conceptual framework for Conceptual framework for this initiativethis initiative
�� Collation:Collation: Systematically organize existing Systematically organize existing information on selected cities to aid IAQMinformation on selected cities to aid IAQM
�� Database & Tools:Database & Tools: Development of Development of IDEA IDEA –– an Interactive Database for Emissions an Interactive Database for Emissions AnalysisAnalysis
�� Stakeholders:Stakeholders: Building partnerships to Building partnerships to develop a shared knowledge basedevelop a shared knowledge base
Case Study CitiesCase Study Cities
JakartaJakarta
HanoiHanoi
ShanghaiShanghaiBeijingBeijing
BangkokBangkok
77
What is IDEA?What is IDEA?Ambient Air Quality LevelAmbient Air Quality Level
Dispersi
on
Dispersi
onM
odeling
Modeli
ngMeteoro
logy
Meteoro
logy
EmissionsEmissions
Management OptionsManagement Options
••EconomicEconomic••AdministrativeAdministrative••PolicyPolicy••TechnicalTechnical
Economic & PolicyEconomic & PolicyAssessmentAssessment
Integrated Modeling/Integrated Modeling/Stakeholder FeedbackStakeholder Feedback
ExposureExposure
DamageDamageAssessmentAssessment
DoseDose--Response/Response/ValuationValuation
Populat ion
Populat ion
Dist ribution & Activity
Dist ribution & Activity
Exposure
ExposureAs sessment
As sessmentIDEAIDEA
•• Systematic Knowledge Systematic Knowledge Base (sources, ambient Base (sources, ambient levels, impacts, options)levels, impacts, options)
••Use in impact assessment Use in impact assessment and analysis of alternativesand analysis of alternatives
What Types of Information What Types of Information does IDEA focus on?does IDEA focus on?
�� GeneralGeneral�� Sources & EmissionsSources & Emissions�� Ambient LevelsAmbient Levels�� ImpactsImpacts�� OptionsOptions
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GeneralGeneral�� Ongoing ProjectsOngoing Projects�� Policies, LegislationPolicies, Legislation�� PopulationPopulation�� GIS DatabasesGIS Databases�� MapsMaps�� StudiesStudies
Jakarta Beijing Shanghai HanoiPopulation (2000) 11,018,000 13,820,000 16,740,000 3,751,000 Area (km2) 661.52 16800 6340.5 918Monitoring data
TSP (µg/m3) 11.6-189.2 370 162
PM10 (µg/m3) 45-146
NOx (µg/m3) 45-187 71 62SO2 (µg/m
3) 9.5-40.5 64 43 1-98
Pollutants and SourcesPollutants and Sources
Industrial and Power SectorIndustrial and Power SectorCoal, Fuel Oil, NGCoal, Fuel Oil, NG
Domestic SectorDomestic SectorCoal, Biofuels, NG/LPGCoal, Biofuels, NG/LPG
Transportation SectorTransportation SectorGasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPGGasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPG
Anthropogenic SourcesAnthropogenic Sources
99
Pollutants and SourcesPollutants and Sources
Biomass Burning Biomass Burning Controlled and uncontrolled Controlled and uncontrolled
combustioncombustion
VolcanoesVolcanoes
Dust OutbreaksDust Outbreaks
Natural SourcesNatural Sources
EmissionsEmissions
EmissionsEmissions
Inputs Inputs •• Total Fuel Use Total Fuel Use –– Coal, oil, gas, natural gas, Coal, oil, gas, natural gas,
alternativesalternatives
•• Industrial Fuel UseIndustrial Fuel Use
•• Electricity DemandElectricity Demand
•• Vehicle N umber by Age/T ypeVehicle N umber by Age/T ype
•• Vehicle Km Travel edVehicle Km Travel ed
•• TrendsTrends
•• Road N etwor kRoad N etwor k
Outputs Outputs • Emissions apportionment Emissions apportionment
by sourceby source
•• Spatial distributionSpatial distribution
•• Projections under v arious Projections under v arious scenariosscenarios
•• Control Control vsvs Cost estimates Cost estimates f or key pollutantsf or key pollutants
……input into input into Dispersion Dispersion ModelsModels
Emission Estimation Emission Estimation f or Key Pollutantsf or Key Pollutants
BMR Regions
Road Network
EmissionCharacteristics
•••
•••
•• Emission Factors for key Emission Factors for key pollutants pollutants –– PMPM1010, SO, SO22, , NONOxx, CO, CO22
•• Point Source Locations & Point Source Locations & EmissionsEmissions
•• Emission Control Emission Control Scenarios/OptionsScenarios/Options
1010
DispersionDispersion
Inputs Inputs •• Emission InventoryEmission Inventory
•• MeteorologyMeteorology
•• Ambient Concentration Ambient Concentration DataData
•• Scenarios/OptionsScenarios/Options
•• Maps/GIS informationMaps/GIS information
Outputs Outputs
•• Ambient ConcentrationsAmbient Concentrations
•• Projections under v arious Projections under v arious scenariosscenarios
•• Spatial patternsSpatial patterns
•• Exposure levelsExposure levels
……input into input into Exposure ModelsExposure Models
Units: mg/m3 PM10
120. 8 121 121. 2 121.4 12 1.6 121. 8 122
30. 8
31
31. 2
31. 4
31. 6
31. 8
32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emissions
Spatial DistributionSpatial Distributionof Ambient Concentrationsof Ambient Concentrations
BMR Regions
Road Network
EmissionsCharacteristics
•••
•••
Meteorology
DispersionModeling
ExposureExposure
Inputs Inputs
•• Ambient ConcentrationsAmbient Concentrations
•• Population DistributionPopulation Distribution
•• Distribution of other Distribution of other sensitive receptorssensitive receptors
•• Scenarios/OptionsScenarios/Options
Outputs Outputs
•• Health EstimateHealth Estimate
•• Projections under v arious Projections under v arious scenariosscenarios
……input into input into Economic Economic Analysis ModelsAnalysis Models
Units: µg/m3 PM10
120. 8 121 121. 2 121.4 121. 6 121.8 122
30.8
31
31.2
31.4
31.6
31.8
32
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
Impact/ExposureImpact/ExposureAssessmentAssessment
1111
Typical Options for IAQMTypical Options for IAQM�� EconomicEconomic: taxes, subsidies, pricing, charges, : taxes, subsidies, pricing, charges,
fines, tradable permitsfines, tradable permits�� AdministrativeAdministrative: emission, energy efficiency : emission, energy efficiency
and fuel quality standards, restrictions on and fuel quality standards, restrictions on operation, inspection and maintenance, operation, inspection and maintenance, industrial complianceindustrial compliance
�� PolicyPolicy: monitoring, compliance, transport : monitoring, compliance, transport systems, traffic management, public transport, systems, traffic management, public transport, NMT, industry, zoning, landNMT, industry, zoning, land--useuse
�� TechnologicalTechnological: fuel improvements, cleaner : fuel improvements, cleaner technologies, endtechnologies, end--ofof--pipe control devices, pipe control devices, cleaner production cleaner production
Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis
Inputs Inputs •• Health and Other Health and Other
Damages and Damages and Valuation under Valuation under v arious v arious scenarios/optionsscenarios/options
•• Costs of various Costs of various optionsoptions
Outputs Outputs
•• CostCost--Effectiv eness of Effectiv eness of v arious optionsv arious options
•• Net Benef its of v arious Net Benef its of v arious optionsoptions
……input for input for Decision Decision SupportSupport
Economic Analysis Economic Analysis of Various of Various
Management OptionsManagement Options
$$$
Cost-Effectiveness Graph (for Selected Component)
- 505
1 0
1 52 02 5
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Emission R eduction (tons/day)
Incr
emen
tal C
os($
/ton)
1212
IDEA: An ExcelIDEA: An Excel--based Toolbased Tool
JakartaJakarta
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
µg
/m3
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1991
Year
TSP concentration
Pulo GadungKayu Manis
CiledugHalim P.MonasGlodok
BandenganAncolBMG
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
PJ
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Energy Consumption by Fuel in Jakarta
Heat/Steam
Electr icity
Nuc lear
Renew ables
Natural Gas
Light Frac tionsMiddle Dis tillates
Heavy Fuel Oil
Biof uels
Coal
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Po
pu
latio
n
195 0 19 55 1960 1965 19 70 1 975 1 980 198 5 19 90 1995 200 0
Ye ar
Populat ion i n Jakarta 1950-2000
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Potential Uses of IDEAPotential Uses of IDEA
�� CityCity--level air quality databaseslevel air quality databases�� Selection and Analysis of Options/ScenariosSelection and Analysis of Options/Scenarios
�� Useful for environmental assessment (baseline, Useful for environmental assessment (baseline, impacts, analysis of alternatives)impacts, analysis of alternatives)
�� Modeling Framework Development and Modeling Framework Development and ApplicationApplication
�� Common platform for collaboration at cityCommon platform for collaboration at city--levellevel
DIESELDIESEL--IDEAS programIDEAS programDDeveloping eveloping IIntegrated ntegrated EEmission mission SStrategies trategies for for EExisting xisting LLand transport and transport ––
IInformed nformed DDecisionecision--support support for for EEvaluating valuating AAlternative lternative SStrategiestrategies
1414
LimitationsLimitations�� Results are only as good as the databases Results are only as good as the databases ––
coverage, quality, consistency and access coverage, quality, consistency and access problemsproblems
�� Consensus on types of options to be consideredConsensus on types of options to be considered�� Evolving methodologies and tools for Evolving methodologies and tools for
assessmentassessment�� Involvement of multiple stakeholders and Involvement of multiple stakeholders and
disciplinesdisciplines�� Adequate reflection of political economyAdequate reflection of political economy�� Actual Actual USEUSE and continuous updating of the and continuous updating of the
systems developedsystems developed
Next StepsNext Steps
�� Going deeperGoing deeper�� Better Quality and Updated DataBetter Quality and Updated Data�� Interface with Modeling Tools/Decision Interface with Modeling Tools/Decision
Support SystemsSupport Systems�� Better Impact Assessment and Analysis of Better Impact Assessment and Analysis of
Alternative Strategies/OptionsAlternative Strategies/Options�� Going broader: More CitiesGoing broader: More Cities�� Dissemination: WebDissemination: Web--based Systemsbased Systems�� Institutional: Stakeholder collaboration for Institutional: Stakeholder collaboration for
Shared knowledge base; Institutional Shared knowledge base; Institutional ““homehome””
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GovernmentGovernmentIndustry groupsIndustry groups
JudiciaryJudiciary
Research institutesResearch institutes
International International organizationsorganizations
Community groupsCommunity groups
Clean airClean air
NGOsNGOs
In ConclusionIn Conclusion……
�� Organized information is essential for IAQM Organized information is essential for IAQM in urban areasin urban areas
�� IDEA is one approach to piloting the userIDEA is one approach to piloting the user--friendly organization of such informationfriendly organization of such information
�� It could have many uses despite limitationsIt could have many uses despite limitations
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Thank You!Thank You!
Questions?Questions?Comments?Comments?
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