a work plan for the washington silver jackets team · citation: mauger, g.s., kennard, h.m. (2017)....
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IntegratingClimateResilienceinFloodRiskManagement:
AWorkPlanfortheWashingtonSilverJacketsTeam
SnoqualmieRiverValley,Dec.2010
GuillaumeMauger,UWClimateImpactsGroup
HaleyKennard,UWSchoolofMarineandEnvironmentalAffairs
September29,2017
Acknowledgements:TheauthorswouldliketothankFEMAforgenerouslyfundingthisresearch.WewouldalsoliketoexpressourappreciationfortheWashingtonSilverJacketsTeamfortheirparticipationinthisresearch,andspecificallythosememberswhocontributedtheirtimeandexpertiseasintervieweesinthisproject.ThisprojectissupportedbyFEMAviaGrantNo.EMS-2016-CA-00009
Citation:Mauger,G.S.,Kennard,H.M.(2017).IntegratingClimateResilienceinFloodRiskManagement:AWorkplanfortheWashingtonSilverJackets.ReportpreparedforFEMA.ClimateImpactsGroup,UniversityofWashington,Seattle.doi:10.7915/CIG7MP4WZ
CoverPhotoSource:KingCountyviathePugetSoundInstitute:http://www.pugetsoundinstitute.org/tag/floodplains/
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1 TableofContents
1 Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... 5
2 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... 7
3 Purpose of this Report ................................................................................................ 10
4 Background ................................................................................................................ 11 4.1 The Washington State Silver Jackets (WA SJ) ............................................................... 11 4.2 Causes of Flooding in Washington ................................................................................. 13 4.3 The Challenge: Balancing Protection with Risk Reduction ............................................ 14 4.4 Climate Change Impacts on Flooding ............................................................................. 14
4.4.1 Observed Trends .................................................................................................................................... 14 4.4.2 Projected Changes .................................................................................................................................. 16
5 Methods ..................................................................................................................... 19
6 Flood Risk Management Priorities ............................................................................. 21
7 Benefits and Opportunities ........................................................................................ 23
8 Existing Resources ..................................................................................................... 25 8.1 Policy and Guidance ....................................................................................................... 25
8.1.1 Policy ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 8.1.2 Guidance .................................................................................................................................................. 26
8.2 Science Resources ........................................................................................................... 29 8.2.1 Synthesis Reports ................................................................................................................................... 29 8.2.2 Future Sea Level, Climate, and Streamflow Datasets .................................................................... 29
9 Climate Resilient Flood Risk Management: Challenges ............................................. 33 9.1 Uncertainty in existing climate change projections and agency lack of knowledge on how to use them: ................................................................................................................................ 33 9.2 Gaps in existing science and data resources .................................................................... 34 9.3 Limits to local capacity ................................................................................................... 34 9.4 Actions and guidance sometimes contradict goals .......................................................... 35 9.5 Coordination .................................................................................................................. 36
10 Climate Resilient Flood Risk Management Goals: Framing the Work plan: .......... 38 10.1 Goal 1: The public understands and appreciates flood risk ............................................ 39 10.2 Goal 2: Local planners have the resources to incorporate climate change considerations into flood risk planning .............................................................................................................. 41 10.3 Goal 3: Agencies consistently use climate information in risk management, planning, and project design ............................................................................................................................. 43 10.4 Goal 4: Agency roles are clear and do not conflict; agencies coordinate and leverage
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resources accordingly ................................................................................................................. 45 10.5 Goal 5: Flood risk management increases floodplain resilience over time ...................... 47
11 Solutions: Washington Silver Jackets Work plan ................................................... 49 11.1 Work plan Item A: Develop improved estimates of future flood impacts ....................... 50
11.1.1 A.1. Precipitation Extremes ............................................................................................................ 50 11.1.2 A.2: Streamflow Extremes .............................................................................................................. 52 11.1.3 A.3. Coastal Flood Risk ................................................................................................................... 54 11.1.4 A.4: Future Flood Maps ................................................................................................................... 56
11.2 Work plan Item B: Develop resources for local planners ............................................... 58 11.2.1 B.1: Flood Risk “Bible” ................................................................................................................... 58 11.2.2 B.2: Centralized Resources ............................................................................................................. 58 11.2.3 B.3: Case Studies .............................................................................................................................. 59
11.3 Work plan Item C: Build capacity and coordination on resilient floodplain management 61
11.3.1 C.1: Seminar series ........................................................................................................................... 61 11.3.2 C.2: Local Interviews ....................................................................................................................... 61 11.3.3 C.3: Learning Network .................................................................................................................... 62
11.4 Work plan Item D: Improve public engagement ............................................................ 64 11.4.1 D.1: Outreach Materials .................................................................................................................. 64 11.4.2 D.2: Coordinated Engagement ....................................................................................................... 65
11.5 Work plan Item E: Coordinate floodplain management goals and planning .................. 67 11.5.1 E.1: Goals Statement ........................................................................................................................ 67 11.5.2 E.2: Planning Checklist ................................................................................................................... 67
12 Priorities for Near-term Action .............................................................................. 70 12.1 Near Term Priority A1: Precipitation Extremes ............................................................ 72 12.2 Near Term Priority D1: Outreach Materials .................................................................. 74 12.3 Near Term Priority E2: Create a Planning Checklist ..................................................... 76
13 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 78
14 References .............................................................................................................. 79
15 Appendix ................................................................................................................ 84 15.1 Washington Silver Jackets Roster .................................................................................. 84 15.2 Workshop Attendee List ................................................................................................. 86 15.3 Interview Guide .............................................................................................................. 87 15.4 Analytical Codes List ...................................................................................................... 89
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2 ExecutiveSummary
ThepurposeofthisworkwastodevelopaworkplanforintegratingclimatechangeimpactsinfloodriskmanagementinWashingtonState.Climatechangeisprojectedtoexacerbateexistingchallengesassociatedwithflooding.Communitiesandagenciesneedtoaccountfortheimpactsofclimatechangetoensurethatpublicresourcesareusedefficientlyandthatlocalcommunitiesarepreparedtodealwithfuturechangesinfloodrisk.
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OuranalysiswasfocusedontheWashingtonStateSilverJackets(WASJ),aninter-agencygroupaimedatcoordinatingamongfloodriskmanagementagencies.WASJagencyrolesandexpertiserangefromtechnicaltoengagementtopolicyaspectsoffloodriskmanagement.BoththeexpertiseoftheWASJgroupandtheexplicitemphasisoncoordinationmeanthatitisuniquelypositionedtoprovideinsightintoagencypriorities,practices,andchallengesassociatedwithincorporatingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.
WeconductedinterviewswithWASJmembersinordertodocumentcurrentpractices,opportunities,andbarrierstotheuseandintegrationofclimatechangeinformation.Basedonthediscussionsweidentifiedasetofgoalsforclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagementandusedthesetodevelopaworkplanorientedaroundfivekeyrecommendations.Eachrecommendationhasanumberofsub-actionsdiscussedingreaterdetailinthereport.
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PrioritiesforNear-TermActionfortheWASJTeam:WASJmembersevaluatedtherecommendedactionsbasedontheirfeasibility,impactonexistingagency-definedfloodriskmanagementpriorities,andimpactonachievingclimateresilientfloodriskmanagement,andidentifiedthreeprioritiesfornear-termwork:
1. Improveestimatesofprecipitationextremes
2. Developcoordinatedoutreachmaterials
3. Createaplanningchecklistforaligningdisparateplanningprocesses
Twootheractionsemergedaspriorities:improvedfuturefloodmapsandthecultivationofalearningnetworkamongfloodriskagencies,localmanagers,andscientists.Althoughimportant,thesewerenotaddressedduetothelimitedstafftimeavailableforadditionalwork.
TheWASJteamisalreadytakingactiononthesepriorities,andtheintentisfortheworkplantoserveasaframeworkforprioritizingongoingcollaborationonclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement.
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3 PurposeofthisReport
Climatechangeisprojectedtoexacerbateexistingchallengesassociatedwithflooding.Floodmanagementdecisionsthataremadetodaywillhaveimplicationsforfloodriskextendingwellintothe21stcentury,ifnotbeyond.Thismeansthatcommunitiesandagenciesneedtoplanfortheimpactsofclimatechangeinordertoensurethatpublicresourcesareusedeffectively.
Theimplicationsofclimatechangeaffectawiderangeofinstitutions,decision-makers,andstakeholders.ThisreportisspecificallyfocusedontheWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteam(WASJ,https://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/State-Teams/Washington),aninter-agencygroupthatisintendedtofacilitatecollaborationonWashingtonstatefloodriskpriorities.Thestudyhasthreegoals:
1. DocumenthowandtowhatdegreeclimatechangescienceresourcesarebeingusedtodaybyWASJagencies,
2. Identifyexistingbarrierstotheintegrationofclimatescienceinfloodriskmanagement,and
3. CreateaworkplanfortheWASJteamtofurtherincorporateclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagementwithintheStateofWashington.
ResultsarebasedonaseriesofinterviewsanddiscussionsaimedatidentifyingopportunitiesforintegratingclimatechangeamongWASJagencies.Theresearchassessedbothscienceandnon-sciencefactorsthatcouldaffecttheintegrationofclimatechangeconsiderationsinfloodriskmanagement.TheintentisthatthisworkplancanserveasaninitialroadmapfortheWASJteam,foruseinidentifyingprioritiesforongoingcollaborationonclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement.
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4 Background
4.1 TheWashingtonStateSilverJackets(WASJ)
WASJisaninter-agencygroupconvenedbytheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)tofacilitatecollaborationonstatefloodriskpriorities.Formedin2010,thefollowingagenciesarecurrentlyinvolvedintheWASJgroup:USACE,FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA),theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration’s(NOAA)NationalWeatherService(NWS),theU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture’s(USDA)NaturalResourcesConservationService(NRCS),theU.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS),theWashingtonStateEmergencyManagementDivision(EMD),theWashingtonStateDepartmentofEcology(ECY),andtheWashingtonStateDepartmentofTransportation(arosterisincludedintheappendix).Collectively,thisgrouppossessesmulti-disciplinaryexpertiseonfloodriskmanagement,andplaysanimportantrole–bothindividuallyandasaninter-agencyteam–infloodriskmanagementinWashingtonState.
ThisreportfocusesontheWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteamasitsmembersareuniquelypositionedtoprovideinsightintoagencypriorities,practices,andchallengesassociatedwithincorporatingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.Collectively,thegrouphasexpertiserangingfromtechnicaltoengagementtopolicyaspectsoffloodriskmanagement,andplaysanimportantrole–bothindividuallyandasaninter-agencyteam–inmanagingfloodriskwithinWashingtonState(seeTable1formoreinformation).
Table1:Summaryofagencyfloodriskplanningandmanagementactivities
Agency PrimaryFloodRiskPlanningandManagementActivities
USACE • ConvenesSilverJacketsTeams• Constructionoffloodcontrolstructures(e.g.,levees,dams,floodwalls)• Ongoingmaintenanceoffloodcontrolstructures• Occasionalnon-structuralfloodriskmanagement(e.g.,buyouts)• Provisionoftechnicalassistancetocities,counties,communities• Immediatedisasterresponse• Conductsfloodriskplanning(GeneralInvestigations,SystemWide
ImprovementFramework)• Providesfundsforlocalfloodprotection projects
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FEMA • ManagestheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP)• Generates“FloodRiskProducts”includingmaps,reports,databasesto
informlocalfloodriskplanningandmanagement• Engagesinfloodriskoutreachwithlocalcommunities• Immediatedisasterresponseandrebuildingefforts• Fundsrebuildingandfloodmitigationefforts(structuralandnon-
structural)
USGS • Observationaldatacollection(e.g.,rivergauges,sedimentmonitoring)• Researchonfloodrisk
NWS • WeatherandFloodforecasts• Communicationofimmediate/short-termfloodriskthroughweather
predictionsandfloodwarnings• Monitorsriversandrainfalltosupportfloodwarnings
ECY • StatecoordinatingagencyforFEMA’sNFIP• Engageswithlocaldecision-makersandtrainsfloodplainmanagers• ReviewslocalfloodplainordinancesrequiredbyNFIP• Balancesfloodriskmanagementwithagencymissionofenvironmental
protection.• Providesgrantstolocalcommunitiesforprojectsthatintegrateflood
riskmanagementwithotherbenefits,includingenvironmentalprotection.
NRCS • Providestechnicalandfinancialassistancetoindividuallandowners(primarilytofarmers,ranchers)forfloodpreventionandmanagement
• DisasterresponsethroughEmergencyWatershedProtectionprogram
EMD • AdministersFEMA’sHazardMitigationGrantProgram(HMGP)• AdministersPre-disasterplanningthroughPre-DisasterMitigationGrant
program(PDM)• Immediatedisasterresponseandrebuildingefforts• Fundsdisaster-preparedness,response,andlong-termrecovery
WSDOT • Managestransportationinfrastructureforthestateincludingroadsthatareaffectedbyfloodingormayaffectfloodrisk
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4.2 CausesofFloodinginWashington
FloodinginWashingtoniscausedbyanumberofdifferentphenomena,withimportantdifferencesbetweentheWesternandEasternpartsofthestate.AtmosphericRivers(ARs)areacommoncauseoffloodingacrossthestate,andaretheprimarycauseoffloodinginwesternWashington.ThedistributionofrainfallduringAReventsisoftenrelativelylocalized,sothatonewatershedmayexperiencefloodingwhileothersdonot.WhereaswesternWashingtontendstoreceivemostoftheprecipitationduringARevents,theseeventscanalsocausefloodingineasternWashington,particularlywhenanARapproachestheregionfromamoresoutherlydirection.AlthoughAReventstendtobringwarmertemperaturesandrainonsnoweventsareoftencitedasamajorcauseofflooding,snowmeltrarelycontributesmorethan10%ofrunoffduringtheseevents(BrentBower,personalcommunication).IneasternWashington,thunderstormscanalsoresultinflooding,althoughtheseeventstendtoonlyaffectverylocalizedareas.
Thespring“freshet”–theincreaseinspringstreamflowsduetosnowmelt–canresultinflooding,particularlyincoldwatershedswhereasubstantialfractionofwinterprecipitationiscapturedassnow.Floodingduetosnowmelttendstopersistformuchlongerthanfloodingduringrainevents,risingandfallingovermanydaysasopposedtoseveralhoursasduringarainevent.FloodingassociatedwithsnowmeltismoreimportantforriversineasternWashington.InwesternWashington,riverflowsresultingfromsnowmeltrarelyexceedflowsresultingfromAtmosphericRiverevents.
Firesandotherchangesinforestcovercanaffectfloodriskbydecreasingtheamountofwaterthatisretainedandincreasingsedimentanddebristransportedduringstormevents.Althoughsuchchangeswouldhaveimportantimplicationsanywhereintheregion,itisamuchmorecommonproblemforeasternWashington.
Floodingcanalsooccurduetochangesinthepositionandshapeoftheriverchannel.Inthegeologically-activePacificNorthwest,riverchannelscanmigrate,changecourse,orevencreateentirelynewchannels(avulsions)insomelocations,drasticallyalteringfloodriskasaresult.Inaddition,riversintheregiontendtocarryhighamountsofsediment.Wherethissedimentisdepositedthecapacityoftheriverchanneltoaccommodatefloodsisdecreased,whichcausesfloodingtooccuratlowerflowrates.
Finally,coastalareascanalsoexperiencefloodingduetoacombinationofhightides,stormsurge,andwaves.Theseeventstendnottoco-occurwithriverflooding,andsocanbeconsideredindependentofthefloodingthatresultsfromhighriverflows.Highintensityprecipitationevents,incontrast,maysometimesco-occurwithstormsurge.
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4.3 TheChallenge:BalancingProtectionwithRiskReduction
InWashingtonState,damagesduetofloodingaremorecostlythananyothernaturalhazard(Ecology2017).Managementoffloodriskischallengingduetothefactthatpeopleandbusinesseshavehistoricallysettledinfloodplainsduetotheflatland,higherqualitysoils,andproximitytowater.Althoughengineeredfloodprotections(e.g.:levees,floodwalls)havegreatlyreducedfloodriskinmanyinstances,theseprotectionsalsooftenresultingreaterexposuretorisk.Forexample,byprotectingcertainflood-proneareasleveesincentivizedevelopmentinthepartsofthefloodplainthattheyprotect,therebyresultingingreaterdamageswhenleveesfailorareovertopped.Similarly,floodinsurancecanencouragedevelopmentinthefloodplainbydistributingtheburdenofdamagesamongallpolicy-holdersandthenation’staxpayers.Thisisfurthercomplicatedbythehighvalueoffloodplainareasformultiplesectorsandinterests--agriculture,habitat,recreation,development--andthestrongpersonaltiesthatmanylandholdershavetotheirproperties.Asaresult,manyregionsexperienceaviciouscycleofincreasedprotectionsfollowedbyincreaseddevelopment,whichinturndrivesincreasedprotections,andsoon.Thishaslongbeenrecognizedasacentralchallengeinfloodriskmanagement(e.g.,Galloway1994),andisanongoingchallengebothintheStateofWashingtonandbeyond.
4.4 ClimateChangeImpactsonFlooding
Climatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbateexistingfloodchallengesduetoincreasingtemperatures,decreasingsnowpack,higherintensityrainevents,andsealevelrise(Snoveretal.2013).InwesternWashington,thecombinationofheavierraineventsandahighersnowlinewillresultinhigherflowsduringrainevents.Coastalfloodplainsareexpectedtoseethegreatestincreasesinfloodriskduetothecombinedinfluencesofsealevelrise,heavyrains,andpeakriverflows.IneasternWashington,decreasedsnowpackcouldreducespringfloodingduetosnowmelt,butcouldalsocontributetohigherpeakriverflowsinwinterandincreasedwildfireriskinsummer,bothofwhichcouldresultinincreasedfloodrisk.VerylittleresearchhasbeendonetoquantifychangesinsedimentaccumulationinriversortoevaluatechangesinhighintensityraineventsineasternWashington.
Thefollowingtwosectionssummarizetheobservedandprojectedchangesinsealevel,climate,andhydrology,obtainedfromavarietyofdifferentstudiesandapproaches.TheseresultsarediscussedingreaterdetailbySnoveretal.(2013)andMaugeretal.(2015).
4.4.1 Observed Trends
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Animportantnoteaboutinterpretationofthesetrends:Trendsareaffectedbyavarietyoffactorsthatareunrelatedtoclimatechange,includinglandusechange,long-termclimatevariability,measurementbiases,andavarietyofotherfactors.Thetrendsreportedherearesimplytheobservedtrends,andarenotseparatedintotheproportionthatcanbeattributedtoclimatechangevs.otherfactors.
• SealevelisrisingatmostlocationsinornearPugetSound.AttheSeattletidegauge,oneofthelongest-runninggaugesinPugetSound,sealevelroseby+8.6inchesfrom1900to2008(+0.8in./decade,NRC2012).Althoughsealevelisrisingatmostlocations,recordsshowadeclineinsealevelforthenorthwestOlympicpeninsula,aregionexperiencinguplift.AttheNeahBaytidegauge,forexample,relativesealeveldroppedby−5.2inchesfrom1934to2008(−0.7in./decade,NRC2012).
• Airtemperaturesarerising.ThePacificNorthwestwarmedabout+1.3°Fbetween1895and2011,withstatistically-significant(95%confidence)warmingoccurringinallseasonsexceptforspring(Kunkeletal.2013).Thistrendisrobust:similar20thcenturytrendsareobtainedusingdifferentanalyticalapproaches(Mote2003).Allbutfiveoftheyearsfrom1980to2011werewarmerthanthe1901-1960average(Moteetal.2013).
• Nocleartrendinheavyrainfall.TrendsinheavyprecipitationeventsareambiguousforthePacificNorthwest.Moststudiesfindmodestincreasingtrends,butonlyafewarestatistically-significantandresultsdependonthedatesandmethodsoftheanalysis(Kunkeletal.2012,MadsenandFigdor2007,Massetal.2011,Rosenbergetal.2010).
• Springsnowpackisdeclining.Springsnowpackfluctuatessubstantiallyfromyear-to-year,butdeclinedoverallintheWashingtonCascadesfromthemid-20thcenturyto2006(Moteetal.2008,Stoelingaetal.2009).Thistrendisdueprimarilytoincreasingregionaltemperatureandreflectstheinfluenceofbothclimatevariabilityandclimatechange(Hamletetal.2005,Pierceetal.2008).Naturalvariabilitycandominateovershortertimescales,resulting(forexample)inanincreaseinspringsnowaccumulationinrecentdecades(Stoelingaetal.2009).
• Earlierpeakinstreamflow.Thespringpeakinstreamflowisoccurringearlierintheyearformanysnowmelt-influencedriversinthePacificNorthwest(observedovertheperiod1948-2002)asaresultofdecreasedsnowaccumulationandearlierspringmelt(Stewartetal.2005).
• Nocleartrendsinpeakstreamflow.OnlyasmallfractionofungaugedstreamflowsitesinWashingtonStatehaveastatisticallysignificant(95%confidenceorgreater)longterm
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trendinpeakflows.Similarly,thereisnostatisticallysignificantchangeinthefrequencyofpeakfloweventsoccurringacrossWashingtonState(Mastinetal.2016).
4.4.2 Projected Changes
Localandregional-scaleprojectionsofchangingfloodriskincludeestimatedincreasesinprecipitationintensity,risingseas,changesinhydrology,aswellasstudiesevaluatingthespecificimplicationsformanagement.
• CoastalareasinWashingtonwillexperiencesealevelrise,althoughsomeareasmaycontinuetoexperiencedecreasesduetotrendsinverticallandmovement.AccordingtoarecentreportbytheNationalResearchCouncil,sealevelisprojectedtoriseanadditional+24in.(range:+4to+56inches)inWashingtonby2100(relativeto2000,NRC2012).Locally,however,sealevelwillincreasebydifferentamountsindifferentplaces.AlthoughmostglobalprojectionswouldresultinsealevelriseforthenorthwestOlympicPeninsula,itisnotyetpossibletoconclusivelyruleoutacontinueddeclineinsealevelforthatregion.
• Continuedriseinannualaveragetemperature.Warmingisprojectedtocontinuethroughoutthe21stcentury(Figure5-1).Forthe2050s(2041-2070)relativeto1950-1999,temperatureisprojectedtorise+5.8°F(range:+3.1to+8.5°F,Moteetal.2013)forahighgreenhousegasscenario(RCP8.5,VanVuurenetal.2011).Muchhigherwarmingispossibleaftermid-century.Loweremissionsofgreenhousegaseswillresultinlesswarming.Theprojectedchangesarelargecomparedtovariability:Bymid-century,thePacificNorthwestislikelytoregularlyexperienceaverageannualtemperaturesthatexceedwhatwasobservedinthe20thcentury
• Winterprecipitationextremesareprojectedtoincrease.Heavyrainfallevents–so-called“AtmosphericRiver”events–areexpectedtobecomemoresevere.Globalmodelsprojectthatdayswiththetop1%(99thpercentile)indailywatervaportransport,theprincipaldriverofheavyraineventsinthePacificNorthwest,willintensifyby+22%(range:+5to+34%),onaverage,bythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999,forahighgreenhousegasscenario:RCP8.5,Warneretal.2015).Thesehighintensityeventsarealsoprojectedtooccurmorefrequently:occurringaboutsevendaysperyear(range:fourtoninedaysperyear)bythe2080sincomparisontotwodaysperyearhistorically.AnotherstudyevaluatingextremerainfallprojectionsfortheSea-Tacweatherstationreportedsimilarresults(Rosenbergetal.2010).
• Substantialdeclinesinsnowpack.Averagespringsnowpack(April1stSnowWater
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Equivalent,orSWE)inWashingtonisprojectedtodeclineby−56to−70%bythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999;basedonanaverageof10globalmodelprojectionsforalow(B1)toamedium(A1B)greenhousegasscenario,respectively;Elsneretal.2010,Nakicenovicetal.2000).
• Annualareaburnedisprojectedtoincrease.ComparedtothemedianannualareaburnedintheNorthwestduring1916-2006(0.5millionacres),onesetoffiremodelsprojectsanincreaseto0.8millionacresinthe2020s,1.1millionacresinthe2040s,and2millionacresinthe2080s(relativeto1970-1999,basedontwoglobalclimatemodelsandamedium(A1B)greenhousegasscenario,Littelletal.2010,Nakicenovicetal.2000).Anothersetofmodelsprojects+76%to+310%increasesinannualareaburnedfortheNorthwestfrom1971-2000to2070-2099underahigh(A2)greenhousegasscenario(Rogersetal.2011,Nakicenovicetal.2000).
• Earlierpeakinstreamflow.Thespringpeakinstreamflowisprojectedtooccurearlierinsnow-influencedwatersheds.Forinstance,peakstreamflowisprojectedtooccur4to9weeksearlierbythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1917-2006)infourPugetSoundwatersheds(Sultan,Cedar,Green,Tolt)andtheYakimabasin(basedonanaverageof10globalmodelprojectionsforalow(B1)toamedium(A1B)greenhousegasscenario,respectively;Elsneretal.2010,Nakicenovicetal.2000).
• Projectedchangesrangefrommodestdecreasestolargeincreasesinextremeriverflowsdependingonlocationandwatershedtype.Thehighestriverflowsaregenerallyexpectedtoincreaseinrain-dominantandinmixedrainandsnowwatersheds.Somesnowdominantwatershedswillseefloodincreases,whileothersexperiencedecreases.ProjectionsforspecificWashingtonlocationscanbefoundhere:http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/.
• Changesinflowregulationmaynotalwaysbesufficienttomitigateincreasesinfloodrisk.IntheSkagitRiver,forinstance,withcurrentfloodmanagementpractices,themagnitudeofthe100-yearpeakstreamfloweventisprojectedtoincreaseby+49%onaveragebythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999).Simulationsindicatethatevenwithchangesinwatermanagementdesignedtodecreasepeakflows,the100-yearfloodflowwillstillincreaseby+42%(only7%lessthanwithcurrentpractices).TheriskoffloodingremainshighbecausethedamsontheSkagitonlyaffectaportionofthewatershed–othermajoruncontrolledtributariescontributesubstantiallytodownstreamflooding(basedonanaverageoffiveglobalclimatemodelsandamoderate(A1B)greenhousegasscenario;Leeetal.2016).
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• Theextent,depth,anddurationoffloodingareexpectedtoincrease.IntheSkagitRiverfloodplain,theareafloodedduringa100-yeareventisprojectedtoincreaseby+74%onaveragebythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999,assumingallleveesremainintact),whenaccountingforthecombinedeffectsofsealevelriseandhigherpeakflows(Hammanetal.2016).Asimilarstudyfoundthatthe10-yeareventwouldflood+19%to+69%moreareainthelowerSnohomishRiverfloodplainbythe2080s(2070-2099,relativeto1970-1999;basedontheaverageof10globalclimatemodelsimulationsandamoderate(A1B)greenhousegasscenario;Maugeretal.2014).
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5 Methods
Dataforthisresearchwascollectedthroughaseriesofsemi-structuredkeyinformantinterviews(EdwardsandHolland2013)ofWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteammembers.Interviewslastedbetweenoneandthreehours,withthemajoritylastingbetween90-120minutes.Theresearchteamutilizedaninterviewguideinalloftheseinterviews(AppendixB),butallowedkeyinformantstoguideresponsesandadditionallinesofdiscussionbasedontherecognitionthatintervieweespossessdeepcontextualknowledgeonthesubjectoffloodriskmanagement(EdwardsandHolland2013,Tuleretal.2002).
IntervieweeswereselectedtoroughlyreflectthecompositionoftheSilverJacketsgroupintermsofagencyrepresentationandgeographicfocus(Table2).IntervieweeswereselectedinconsultationwithWASJmembers,withpreferencegiventothosewhoaremostengagedinSilverJacketsactivities.SeveralintervieweeswerealsoselectedfrombeyondtheWASJteam,inordertoensurethatdifferentperspectivesfromwithinkeyagencieswereadequatelyrepresented.Intotal,thirteeninterviewswereconductedbythetwo-personresearchteam.Ninewereconductedinperson,twoviavideo-conference,andtwooverthephoneduetothefactthatsomeintervieweesweretoofarawaytojustifythetravelexpenses.
Table2.NumberofinterviewsconductedforeachparticipatingSilverJacketsagency.Atthetimeoftheproject,WSDOTdidnothaveanystaffparticipatingintheWASJteam.
Agency NumberofInterviews
USArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE) 3
FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA) 2
NationalWeatherService(NWS) 2
USGeologicalSurvey(USGS) 1
WAEmergencyManagementDivision(EMD) 2
WADepartmentofEcology(ECY) 2
NaturalResourceConservationService(NRCS) 1
WADepartmentofTransportation(WSDOT) 0
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Interviewswererecorded,transcribed,thencodedintheirentiretyusingAtlas.tisoftware(http://atlasti.com).Atlas.tiisasocialscienceanalysisprogramwhichallowstheresearchertosystematicallyorganizeandcategorizelargeamountsofqualitativedatausing“codes”(Milesetal.2014,Saldaña2015).Codesaresimplecategoriesorlabelsfororganizingthestatementsmadebyinterviewees(Milesetal.2014).Thecodingapproachusedcanbedescribedas“topiccoding”(Saldaña2015),whichfocusesonidentifyingandcategorizingthecontentofthequalitativedata.Inthisprojectweused17distinctcodes(seeAppendixforfulllistofcodes)someofwhichwerepre-identifiedtocorrespondwithresearchquestionswhileothersemergedthroughtheinitialanalysis.Theinterviewswerethenfurtheranalyzedthrough“theoreticalmemoing”.Thisprocessallowstheresearchertoreflectanddeveloptheirconceptualideasaboutthedata(Milesetal.2014),whileprovidingadditionalcredibilityandtraceabilitybycreatingarecordoftheresearcher’sanalyticalprocess(Groenewald2014).
Inparallelwiththeinterviews,theresearchteamcontinuedtoengagewiththeWASJteaminordertofacilitatecontinuedinformationexchange.TheWashingtonSilverJacketscurrentlyhasanannualmeetinginDecemberaswellasmonthlycalls.Theresearchteamparticipatedinthesemeetingsandcalls,presentingonexistingclimatechangescienceandresourceswhilealsolearningaboutagencyconcerns,issues,andinterests.
Finally,researchershostedtheWASJgroupforafinalprojectworkshop.Attheworkshop,researcherspresentedadraftworkplan,basedonthebarriers,needs,andprioritiesidentifiedintheinterviewsandotherdiscussionswiththeWASJteam.Theworkshopwasdesignedtoprovideparticipantswithachancetoprovidefeedbackontheseinitialconclusions,whilealsoengagingthegroupinaprioritizationexercisetoidentifyspecificfocusareasfornear-termwork.Theworkshopalsoincludedtimeforparticipantstobeginscopingspecifictasksforthethreefocusareasthatrankedhighest:clarifyinggoals,assigningaprojectlead,identifyingfundingopportunities.
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6 FloodRiskManagementPriorities
Theinterviewsincludedanexplorationofcurrentprioritiesforfloodriskmanagement.Understandinghowparticipantsviewtheirprioritiesanddefinetheirownsuccesshelpedtheresearchteamensurethattheworkplanwasdesignedtoaddressagencyneeds.Althoughindividualagencieshavetheirownspecificpriorities,therewerethreegeneralthemesthatwerecommontomanyoftheresponses.
1.Protectionoflifeandproperty:
IntervieweesidentifiedtheprotectionofthelivesandpropertyofWashingtonresidentsasatoppriorityintheirfloodriskmanagementactivities:“Ournumberoneparamountgoalinfloodriskmanagement[…]istheprotectionoflifeandproperty.Lifebeingparamountforsurebutproperty[also].”(USACE2017).Akeyaspectofthispriorityisthecommunicationandminimizationofrisk.Manyagenciesaredirectlyinvolvedwiththecommunitiesandlocalcityorcountygovernment.Theyviewinformingthepublicabouttheirriskandappropriateactionstominimizeitasanimportantpieceofprotectinglifeandproperty:“ultimatelywhatwe’retryingtodoiswe’retryingtohelpthecommunitiesunderstandtheirriskandtakeactionontherisktominimizetheirexposure”(FEMA2017).
2.Environmentalconsiderations:
Second,manyintervieweespointedtoenvironmentalconcernsasapriorityformanagingfloodriskinWashingtonState.Someoftheseconcernswererelatedtosalmonandsalmonhabitat,partlyaresultofthe2013BiologicalOpinion(BiOp)requiringfloodplaindevelopmenttoaccountforsalmonrecovery.Oneintervieweecommented:“It’srecognizedthatfisherieshabitatrestorationhastobepartofthepackagealongwithfloodsafety”(ECY2017).However,someintervieweesaddressedtheissueofenvironmentalconcernsmorebroadly,referringtotherestorationofnaturalprocessesasafloodriskpriority:“We’retryingtomoveasmuchaswecantowardsasustainabilityforthenaturalprocesses,consistencyofthenaturalprocessapproachsowe’renotputtingthingsinthelandscapethatareclearlynotdesignedtobethere.”(USACE2017).Therecognitionthatother(environmental)prioritiesmustbeaccountedforinfloodriskmanagementintheregionshapesthewayintervieweesframetheirownpriorities.
3.Landuseplanningtoreduceexposureandrisk:
Carefulplanningandmanagementofcurrentandpotentialfutureusesofthefloodplainwasidentifiedasanadditionalpriority.Thispriorityisinmanywaysacombinationofthefirsttwointhatitaddressestheneedforcomprehensiveandmulti-facetedfloodplainplanningasawayof
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managingfloodrisk.Intervieweesrecognizethatfundamentally,developmentinthefloodplainwillfloodandthereforeexistingandfuturestructuresshouldbecarefullyconsidered:“we’realsolookingatmorepreventativemeasures,elevatinghousesthathavebeenbuiltonthefloodplain,lookingatwhatdevelopmentshouldgowhereinthefloodplain.”(ECY2017).Removingexistinginfrastructurefromthefloodplainorpreventingfuturedevelopmentisachallengingandhighlypoliticalissue,onethatagenciesrecognizeasimportantbutarecurrentlygrapplingwithhowtoeffectivelyrealize.Oneintervieweecommented:“Iwouldstillsay99percentor95percentofourmoneyisstilljustputtingthingsbackexactlythewaytheywere.Theymaygetsomeelevation,butthey’renotreallygettingoutofthefootprintofthefloodplainandthey’renotthinkingaboutthebiggerpictureofthings:shouldthecriticalstructureevenbeputbackinthatfloodplain.”(FEMA2017).
Thesethreeoverarchingprioritiesguidedthecreationoftheworkplanandinformedtheframingclimateresilientfloodriskmanagementgoalsandrecommendationsoftheproposedactionitems.Whileachievingtheseprioritieswouldbechallengingunderanycircumstances,intervieweesnotedthatclimatechangeaddsanadditionallayerofcomplexitytotheirwork.Incorporatingpreparationsforuncertainfutureconditions(bothintermsofclimatechangeandland-usechanges)intotheseguidingprioritiesisanongoingandincreasinglypressingneed.
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7 BenefitsandOpportunities
Whiletherearemanychallengestoincorporatingclimatechangeconsiderationsintofloodriskmanagement,intervieweesalsoidentifiedanumberofimportantbenefitstoincreasingtheresilienceofFRMtoachangingclimate.Manyofthesebenefitsrelatedirectlytotheprioritiesforfloodriskmanagementcitedintheprevioussection.Aprimarybenefitidentifiedwasreducingthelong-termeconomiccostsoffloodriskmanagement,particularlyaroundfloodinfrastructure(i.e.levees).Thesestructuralfloodriskmanagementelementsareexpensivetoplanandbuild,buttheycanalsobeexpensivetomaintain,especiallyiftheyarenotbuiltwithclimatechangeinmind.Oneintervieweenotedthat“structuresaregoingtobeunder-designedandmoneyisgoingtobeoverspentwithoutaneyeforclimatechange”(USACE2017),whichanotherintervieweecharacterizedas“awasteofpublicdollars”(NWS2017).Intervieweesemphasizedtheimportanceofincorporatingclimatechangeinordertoreducethelong-termcostsofsignificantprojects.Thisbenefitisseenasparticularlyimportantbecauselocalcommunities,asprojectsponsors,areoftenresponsibleforlong-termmaintenancecosts:“totheextentwecanmakethesethingsresilienttoclimatechange,right,thelessburdenwe’reputtingon[thelocalsponsor]inthefuture.[...]WestrivetobuildthingsthatareleastburdensomefromanO&M[Operations&Maintenance]perspectiveaswecan.”(USACE2017).
Intervieweesalsodiscussedclimateresilienceintermsofitspotentialtoinformland-useplanning.Climate-resilientFRMisseenasessentialtowell-planneddevelopment,successfulagriculture,andthelocationofcriticalinfrastructure.Understandinghowandwherefloodriskislikelytochangeisimportantforlocalplanners:“Thinkaboutthelocalofficialsandtheirfloodzoningordinances.Ifyouknowthatthisareaisgoingtobefloodingmorefrequently,it’sprobablynotaplacetheywanttoputalotmorehousesorsubdivisions.Knowingthat,Ithink,iscriticalforlocalplanning”(NWS2017).FRMisconnectedtoavarietyofplanningprocessesandtouchesawidevarietyofsectors,offices,andagenciesacrossmultiplescales.IncreasingtheresilienceofFRMtoachangingclimatewouldpositivelyaffecttheresilienceofthesevariousplanningprocesses,helpingensurethesafetyoflocalcommunitiesandimprovingtheirabilitytorespondtoachangingclimateandchangingfloodrisk.
Similarly,intervieweeshighlightedthatincorporatingclimatechangeintotheirFRMworkwouldimprovetheaccuracyoftheirmaps,models,predictions,andrecommendations.Moreaccuratemodelsandbetterinformationonfutureconditionswouldleadtobetterunderstandingof–andabilitytomanagefor–floodrisk.Becausethesemodels,maps,andrecommendationsdriveFRMactionatmultiplescales,itisparticularlyimportantthattheyaccuratelyreflectrisks:“theadvantage[ofincreasedclimateresilience]wouldbethatitwould
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bemoreaccurate.Ifsomethingischangingfromwhatwehavebeenexpectingorusedtoexpect,inordertogetthatright,ourinformationisgoingtohavetotakethatintoaccount[...]keepingourscienceupwithchanges.”(NWS2017).
AsdiscussedintheFRMprioritiessection,WASJagenciesprioritizereductionsinrisktocommunitiesandtheenvironment.Improvementsinthewaytheyincorporateclimateintotheirworkwillenhancetheirabilitytoaccuratelypredictandmanagerisk.Oneintervieweecommented:“IfocusonhumanvulnerabilityandIthinkthat[weneed]toplanforthekindsofdamageswe’regoingtoseeinthefutureratherthanfromthekindsofdamagewe’veseeninthepast”(EMD2017).AclearbenefitofincorporatingclimatechangeintoFRMisthatitimprovestheaccuracyofriskmanagement,whichhasdirectandsignificantimpactsonhumansafety.
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8 ExistingResources
8.1 PolicyandGuidance
8.1.1 Policy
Bothfederalandagencyguidanceareclearabouttheinclusionofclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.ExecutiveOrder13690,theFederalFloodRiskManagementStandard(FFRMS)specificallyrequiresagenciestoconsiderclimatechangeimpactsonfloodriskwhenfederaltaxdollarsareusedinthefloodplain.Undertheorder,agenciesaregiventhreeoptions:
1. Usethebestavailablescience,2. Add3feetoffreeboardforcriticalinfrastructureand2feetforeverythingelse.3. Designtothe500-year(0.2%annualchance)floodplain
AlthoughtheFFRMShassincebeenrescindedbythecurrentadministration,itisanexampleofahigh-levelpolicychangewiththepotentialtosignificantlyreduceexposuretofloodriskoverthelongterm.
Individualagencieshavealsoestablishedclimatechangepolicies.TheU.S.ArmyCorpshasdevelopedaclimatechangeadaptationplanwhichstatesthat“ItisthepolicyofUSACEtointegrateclimatechangeadaptationplanningandactionsintoourAgency’smissions,operations,programs,andprojects”(USACE2015).In2012,FEMAissuedapolicystatementthatemphasizedtheimportanceofincorporatingclimatechangeintotheirprogramsandoperationsandlistedsevenactionsthattheagencywouldtaketoplanforclimatechange(FEMA2012).
Existingagreementsandpoliciesalsohaveimplicationsforclimate-informedFRM.Forexample,aBiologicalOpinion(BiOP)hasbeenissuedforPugetSound,basedontheconclusionthatFEMA’sNationalFloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP),asimplemented,wasatoddswithsalmonrecovery(NWFv.FEMA2004).AlthoughtheBiOpdoesnotcurrentlyconcernclimatechange,giventhelargeimpactofclimatechangeonfloodriskandtheEndangeredSpeciesAct(ESA)mandatetousethe“bestavailablescience”,itispossiblethatthiscouldbearequiredconsiderationinthefuture.Inaseparatedecision,the“CulvertCase”(USv.Washington2007),mandatedtheremovalofanestimated40,000culvertsandotherbarrierstofishpassage(WDFWFishBarrierRemovalBoard2016).ThecasehighlightsonewayinwhichFRMpractices–culvertdesignforfloodandstormwatercontrol–canhavesignificantnegativeconsequencesonenvironmentalhealth.Bothofthesedecisionswouldcorrectmaladaptivepractices,improve
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habitatconditions,andreducesalmonvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.
8.1.2 Guidance
Itcanbedifficultforevenawell-acquaintedusertoknowhowtointerpretclimatechangeprojections,selectappropriatescenarios,andevaluatedifferentapproachestoassessingimpacts.Numerousresourcesexisttosupportimpactsassessmentandadaptationefforts.
TheClimateResilienceToolkit(https://toolkit.climate.gov/)bringstogethertools,data,guidance,andalibraryofcasestudies,allcompiledintoonelocationtomakeiteasiertousetheseresources.Anotherrecentpublication,Snoveretal.(2013),decomposesthedecision-makingprocessintophasesthatrequireclimateinformationandexpertise,andotherphasesthatrelyonlocalknowledgeandcontext-specificinformationaboutthetimelineandacceptablelevelofrisk.Althoughthepaperisfocusedonassessingclimatechangeimpactsonbiologicalsystems,theideasapplymoregenerallytoanyefforttouseclimateprojectionsindecision-making.Forexample,Table3below(Table3inSnoveretal.2013)listscommonmisconceptionsaboutclimatechangeprojections,alongwiththerealityassociatedwitheach.
Severalagencieshavealsodevelopedguidance.USACEhasissuedseveralguidancedocuments,includingaseriesonincorporatingsealevelriseinplanningandanotheroninlandhydrology.Thesealevelriseguidanceincludesquantitativesealevelprojectionsthataretobeusedinplanning,andanonlinetoolthatallowsuserstoextractprojectionsfortheirsiteofinterest(EngineeringRegulation,ER#1100-2-8162).SealevelriseisnowarequiredelementofUSACEplanninganddesignstudies.Inlandhydrologyisnotcurrentlyrequiredanddoesnotincludespecificprojections,asisthecaseforsealevelrise.However,itdoesprovideguidanceonconductingaqualitativeassessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonstreamflow(EngineeringConstructionBulletin,ECB2016-25).Boththeinlandandsealevelriseguidanceincludestep-by-stepinstructionsandcasestudiesthatdescribehowtoincorporateclimatechangeindesignandplanning.
AlthoughFEMAdoesnotcurrentlyincorporatefuturefloodrisksinitsregulatorystandards,ithasinitiatedtheRiskMappingAssessmentandPlanning(RiskMAP)program,inwhichnon-regulatoryinformationonfuturefloodriskisprovidedtointerestedcommunities.FEMA’sTechnicalMappingAdvisoryCouncil(TMAC)hasalsoissuedasetofspecificrecommendationsforincorporatingclimatechangeintheNFIP(TMAC2015).Inaddition,severalindependentorganizationshavebegundevelopingguidancethatmaysupporttheintegrationofclimatechangeinFEMAprograms:
1. theCommunityRatingSystem(CRS)“GreenGuide”,developedbytheAssociationof
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StateFloodplainManagers(ASFPM,ASFPM2017),and
2. theNatureConservancy’s(TNC)“NaturallyResilientCommunities”website(TNC2017).
Althoughneitherwebsiteisspecificallyfocusedonclimatechange,bothincludeguidanceandrecommendationsthatarerelevanttoaddressingclimatechangeimpactsonflooding.
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Table3.Commonmisconceptionsabouttheutilityofclimatescenarios.Copied,withpermission,fromTable3inSnoveretal.2013
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8.2 ScienceResources
8.2.1 Synthesis Reports
International,national,andregionalreportssummarizethecurrentstateofclimatescienceandimpacts(Table4).Forexample,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereport(IPCC2013)includesthewell-knownclimatesciencesynthesisaswellasanentireseparatereportonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptation.TheNationalClimateAssessmentprovidesasimilarhigh-leveloverviewofclimatescienceandimpactsthatisfocusedontheU.S.(Melliloetal.2014).ItincludesachaptersummarizingtheimplicationsforthePacificNorthwest.Finally,thereareanincreasingnumberofreportsthataddressthescienceandimpactsatamorelocallevel.ThetwomostrecentofthesefocusonWashingtonState(Snoveretal.2014)andPugetSound(Maugeretal.2015).Thesereportsallincludehigh-leveloverviewstatementsaswellasdetaileddiscussionsoftheresearchandlinkstothekeystudiesintheprimaryliterature.
Table4.Synthesisreports.Thesespanfromglobaltolocalscales,andprovidebothsynthesisprojectionsandareviewofkeystudiesintheprimaryliterature.
Report Domain Citations NextUpdate
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
Global IPCC2013,
IPCC2014a,IPCC2014b
2021
NationalClimateAssessment National Melliloetal.2014,Moteetal.2014
2018
GlobalandRegionalSeaLevelRiseScenariosfortheUnitedStates
National Sweetetal.2017 Unknown
CIGStateofKnowledgeReports WAState,PugetSound
Snoveretal.2014,Maugeretal.2015
Unknown
8.2.2 Future Sea Level, Climate, and Streamflow Datasets
InthePacificNorthwest,climatechangeisexpectedtoimpactfloodingviachangesinsealevel,extremeprecipitation,peakriverflows,andsedimentdeposition.Maugeretal.(2015)synthesizedthestateofthescienceonthesetopicsasof2015.
Numerousclimatechangedatasetsexistthatcanbeusedtoquantifychangesinfloodrisk.All
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projectionsstemfromgreenhousegasscenariosandglobalclimatemodel(GCM)projectionsusedinrecentIPCCreports.Downscalingmethodsareoftencategorizedaseither“statistical”(meaningthatitisbasedonempiricalrelationshipsobtainedfromobservations)or“dynamical”(meaningthatthedownscalingisperformedusingaphysically-basedclimatemodel).Theseareproducedusingcoarse-scaleGCMprojectionsobtainedfromoneoftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProjects(CMIP),eitherthepreviousCMIP3(Meehletal.2007)orthemorerecentCMIP5archive(Tayloretal.2012;seeMaugeretal.2015foradditionaldescriptions).Mostclimatedatasetsincludean“ensemble”ofmultipleclimatemodelprojections,inordertoprovideanestimateoftheuncertaintyinprojections.
Aselectionofcurrently-availablesealevelrise,downscaledclimate,andhydrologicprojectionsarelistedinTables5-7.Eachtablealsolistsongoingprojectsthatwillupdatethescienceoneachtopic.Therearethreeprincipalchallengestousingtheseprojections:
1. Mostclimatechangedatasetsrequiresomedegreeofadditionalpost-processingtouse.
2. Projectionsdifferamongdatasets,andthebestapproachmaynotbethesameforeachapplication.
3. Thescienceandprojectionsarecontinuallyevolving,meaningthatthebestavailabledatasettodaywilleventuallybesupersededbynewerprojections.
Inotherwords,thechallengewithclimatechangeprojectionsisnotsomuchtheavailabilityofdata,buttheuseandinterpretationofwhatalreadyexists.Guidancedocuments,suchasthoseoutlinedabove,providehelpfulcriteriaforselectingandapplyingclimatechangeprojections.Additionalworkisneededtominimizetheadditionaleffortneededtousetheseprojectionsandprovidebetterinformationontherelativemeritsandpitfallsofvariousapproaches.Theseareaddressedintheworkplanitemsbelow.
Finally,thesedatasetsareexclusivelyconcernedwiththedriversoffloodrisk.Veryfewstudieshavetakentheadditionalstepofquantifyingtheimplicationsforthedepthandareaofinundationasaresultofclimatechange.ExamplesthatdoexistcoververyspecificriverreacheswithinWashingtonState(Hammanetal.2016,Maugeretal.2014),anddifferencesinmethodologiesdonotallowforapples-to-applescomparisonsofrisk.Thisgapisalsoaddressedintheworkplan.
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Table5.Aselectionofdownscaledclimateprojections
GreenhouseGasScenario
ClimateModels
Down-scaling Resolution Citation
Low
Mod
erate
High
New
(CMIP5)
Old(C
MIP3)
Statistical
Dyna
mical
PacificNorthwestHydroclimateScenariosProject
ü ü 10 ü 6km Hamletetal.2013
NASA-NEXDownscaledClimateProjections
ü ü ü 33 ü 800m Thrasheretal.2012,2013
BiasCorrectedandSpatiallyDownscaledCMIP5(BCSD5)
ü ü 39 ü 6km Reclamation2014
MultivariateAdaptiveConstructedAnalogs(MACA)
ü ü 10 ü 4km AbatzoglouandBrown2012
LocalizedConstructedAnalogs(LOCA)
ü ü 32 ü 6km Pierceetal.2015
NorthAmericanRegionalClimateChangeAssessmentProgram(NARCCAP)
ü 4 ü 50km Mearnsetal.2017
NorthAmericanCoordinatedRegionalDownscalingExperiment(NA-CORDEX)
ü ü 7 ü 25-50km Bukovskyetal.2017
Ongoing:UWWeatherResearchandForecastModelProjections(UWWRF)
ü ü ü 2 2 ü 12km
Salathéetal.2010,LeadInvestigators:GuillaumeMauger,EricSalathé(UW)
Ongoing:RegionalClimatePredictiondotNet(RegCPDN)
ü ü 1 ü 25km
Moteetal.2016.LeadInvestigators:DavidRupp,PhilMote(OSU)
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Table6.Aselectionofhydrologicchangeprojections.HydrologicmodelsusedintheseprojectionsaretheVariableInfiltrationCapacity(VIC,Liangetal.1994)andthePrecipitationRunoffModelingSystem(PRMS,Markstrometal.2015).
Name Downscaling HydrologicModel
Citation
PacificNorthwestHydroclimateScenariosProject
Statistical VIC Hamletetal.2013
WesternU.S.HydroclimateScenariosProject
Statistical VIC Salathéetal.2013
IntegratedScenariosoftheFutureNorthwestEnvironment
Statistical VIC Moteetal.2014
RiverManagementJointOperatingCommitteeProjections,Part2(RMJOC-II)
Statistical,Dynamical
VIC,PRMS Leadinvestigator:BartNijssen,UW
Ongoing:StructureforUnifyingMultipleModelingApproaches(SUMMA)
Statistical,Dynamical
SUMMA Clarketal.2015a,2015b
Table7.Aselectionofsealevelriseprojections.
Title Citation
Sea-LevelRisefortheCoastsofCalifornia,Oregon,andWashington
NRC2012
Probabilistic21stand22ndcenturysea-levelprojectionsataglobalnetworkoftide-gaugesites
Koppetal.2014
GlobalandRegionalSeaLevelRisescenariosfortheUnitedStates
Sweetetal.2017
Ongoing:WACoastalResilienceProject(WCRP) LeadAuthor:IanMiller,WASeaGrant
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9 ClimateResilientFloodRiskManagement:Challenges
Anumberofchallengeswereidentifiedbyinterviewees.Theyfallintofivebroadcategories,eachofwhichisdiscussedbrieflyinthesectionsbelow.
9.1 Uncertaintyinexistingclimatechangeprojectionsandagencylackofknowledgeonhowtousethem:
Intervieweesexpressedthatuncertaintyinclimateprojectionsisanongoingbarriertotheintegrationofclimatescienceintofloodriskmanagement.Therearetwomainaspectstothischallenge.Thefirstisthatclimatepredictionsinherentlycontainadegreeofuncertainty,presentingrangesratherasingledefinitivenumber.Particularlyforprecipitationandriverinefloodpredictions,intervieweesfeltthattheserangesarebroadenoughtoseriouslycomplicatefloodriskplanning:“Thetemperaturewehavehighconfidencein,butprecipitation,whichisimportantforrainfall-runoffmodelsiskindofallovertheplace,differentmodels[give]differentresults.”(USGS2017).Anothercommented:“Iguessthedifficultythereistakingthesciencewhichrightnow[has]afairlylargerangeofprobabilitiesandconvertingthattoarangewherepeoplefeelcomfortable[…]havingmodelingwherewecanatleastgetsomekindofconfidencelevelandsayhere’stherangewecanworkwith[…tobeabletosay]youwillmostlikelyseeincreasedfloodsofthislevel.”(ECY2017).
Thesecondchallengeassociatedwithuncertaintyisthatagenciesdon’tknowhowtouseordon’tfeelcomfortableusingdatawithsuchrangesofuncertainty.Uncertaintymakesagencyplanningdifficultandcomplicatescommunicationtolocalplannersandcommunities:“Theotherrealdifficultyhereisuncertainty.We[…]arelargelypastthequestionaboutwhetherclimatechangeexistsornotbutwhattheeffectsarestillwe’rereallyworkingtofigureout.Sothatuncertaintyisalltooofteneasyforpeopletoturnthisoffwhentheyseeokaywedon’tknowwhattheriskreallyis[…]They’llsaywellI’lldealwiththatwhenIhavebetterinformation(ECY2017).
Therewillalwaysbearangeamongprojectionssinceitisnotpossibletopredictthefutureofhumanbehavior,technology,andgeopolitics;climatemodelsareimperfect,andtheclimateitselfisachaoticsystemwithrandomnaturalvariationssuper-imposedonlongtermchangesduetogreenhousegases.However,thereisarichliteratureondecision-makingwithuncertainty,andresourcesexisttoassistinmakingplansthatarerobusttoarangeoffutureoutcomes.Althoughadditionalresearchmayreduceuncertainties,theprimaryneedistobuild
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agencycapacitytodealwithandunderstandhowtouseclimateprojectionsinformationinspiteofuncertainty.
9.2 Gapsinexistingscienceanddataresources
Intervieweesidentifiedanumberofbroadscienceanddatadeficiencieswhichtheyfeltposedachallengetosuccessfulintegrationofclimatescienceinfloodriskmanagement.Gapsincludedfloodmodelingthatdoesnotadequatelyaccountforachangingclimate,alackoflocal-scaleclimateandfloodriskinformation,andlimitedinformationonthespecificmechanismsdrivingfloodriskindifferentlocations.
Anotherchallengewastheuseofhistoricalinformationonfloodriskasopposedtoprojectedfuturechanges.Intervieweesnotedthatthisisparticularlyproblematicwhenparticulardatasetsthatlackfuturechangesaremandatedbyagencies,essentiallyreinforcingtheomission.“It’skindofhardwhenclimatechangeisnotgoingtobestaticandsoinfiftyyearsit’sgoingtobedifferentthanitistoday.[…]ThefederalgovernmentingeneralandFEMAspecificallyisnotafastadaptingagency.Sogenerallywearetentofifteenyearsbehindthebigchangesthathappen[...]andifittakesustentofifteenyearstogetitimplementedintoourstudiesandouranalysisthat’skindoftoolate.”(FEMA2017).Anotherintervieweecommented:“Ithinkthebigquestionthatyou’llprobablygettoatsomepointisstationarityandallthefloodstatisticsarebasedonthisconceptofstationarity.Weknowthat’snotexactlytrue”(USGS2017).
Inadditiontomapsandresourcesthatdonotaccountforachangingclimate,agenciesareoftenattemptingtosupportlocalplanningwithmapsthataren’tscaledtothelocallevel.Oneintervieweestatedtheneedfor“cleartoolsforplanninglevelfolkstogoinandgookayinthislocationinthissite[…]howaremyconditionslikelygoingtochangeovermyplanninghorizon?”(USACE2017).Otherspointedtocountyorwatershed-levelclimatechangeandfloodriskmodellinginordertosupportlocalplanningprocesses.
9.3 Limitstolocalcapacity
Inadditiontoagencycapacity,intervieweesexpressedtheneedtobuildlocalcapacityonclimatechangeandfloodriskmanagement.Thislocalcapacitycanbethoughtofinthreegeneralstages:
1. localmanagersareawareofrisk,
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2. localmanagersareawareofresponseoptionsandresourcestoaddressrisk,and
3. localmanagershavethemotivation,knowledge,andresourcestoacttoreducerisk.
Thefirst,anawarenessoftherisksassociatedwithclimatechange-relatedflooding,isatleastpartlyachievedviaeffectiveagencycommunicationoftherisk.Oneintervieweestated:“Itwouldreallybeniceifthepublicwasmoreinformed[…]Theyhavethismisconceptionthatwellthey’veneverhadwaterinthisareabeforeandmaybethey’velivedtherefor20[years…]Sotheyhavethismisconceptionthatwe’renottellingthemthetruth,thatthere’snotreallyanyrisktothem”(NRCS2017).Intervieweesexpressedthataccuratelyandclearlycommunicatingrisksassociatedwithclimatechangecanbechallengingbothbecausetheinformationiscomplexandbecauseofotherfactors,includingpolitics.
Publicawarenessofoptionsformitigatingfloodriskisanadditionalchallenge.Currentresourcesincludefundingopportunitiesfromvariousagencies,assistanceandtraininginfloodriskmanagement,andguidanceoncoordinatingwithagenciesonfloodriskmanagementprojects.Forexample,attheCorps“Thereareparts[ofaproject]intherewherethelocalscancometousandgowe’dreallyliketoknowhowthisseawallmightbeaffectedbyclimatechangeinthenext50years.Canyoustudythatforus?We’dbelikeyeah.Surewecandothat.Butwe’dbehandlingitonsomeotherauthority,notcallitclimatechangestudies”(USACE2017).Intervieweesnotedthatlocalplannersandfloodriskmanagersaregenerallyunawareoftheseopportunitiestodirectagencyefforts.
Thethirdstepisreachedwhenlocalplannersandcommunitiesaremotivatedtotakeactiontoaddresstheirfloodrisk.Thisisfacilitatedbysupportandcommunicationfromagenciesbutisalsorelatedtoabeliefinandpoliticalinclinationtodealwithclimatechange(amorechallengingaspectfortheWASJtoaddress).Theideathatagenciescanprovideresources,outreach,andcommunicationinawaythatmotivateslocalcommunitiestoactionwascommonlyexpressed:“Weneedtodothingsinsuchwaysaspeopleknowhowtotakeaction,whatactiontotakeandwilltakeaction.”(NWS2017).Althoughlimitedlocalcapacityisanongoingchallengeinfloodriskmanagement,theWASJiswell-positionedtoaugmentthiscapacityviaimprovedengagement,tailoredclimateprojections,andbyallocatingstafftimetoaddresslocalconcernsaboutclimatechange.
9.4 Actionsandguidancesometimescontradictgoals
Intervieweesnotedthatcommonapproachestakenwithineachagencycouldsometimesbeinconflictwiththeirstatedgoalsofprotectinglife,property,andtheenvironment.Somefeltthat
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theiractionsdidnotcomprehensivelyoreffectivelyaddressfloodriskorcontributetoclimate-resilientfloodplainmanagementandcould,infact,beexacerbatingexistingandfuturefloodrisk.FEMA,forexample,oftenrebuildshousesinthesamelocationswheretheyweredamagedbyfloodsintheabsenceofanexistingplanatthecommunitylevel:“Iwouldstillsay99percentor95percentofourmoneyisstilljustputtingthingsbackexactlythewaytheywere.Theymaygetsomeelevation,butthey’renotreallygettingoutofthefootprintofthefloodplain”(FEMA2017).Thisrebuildingdoeslittlefortheoverallresilienceandsafetyofthefloodplain.Similarly,therewasageneralconsensusthattheArmyCorpstendstofundstructuralapproachestofloodriskmanagement(e.g.,levees)evenwherenon-structuralapproach(e.g.,buyouts)mightbethemoreflood-andclimate-resilientoption:“It’snotthatwecouldn’tbuttheeffortandcostinvolvedwithgettingtherealestate,purchasingthem,therequirementsatthetimeforplacingtheirhousesomewhereelseanditwasjustverycumbersome”(USACE2017).Ingeneral,culturalandinstitutionalissueswithineachagencycansometimesleadtoactionsthatarenotoptimallyeffectiveatreducingfloodrisk.
Anadditionalchallengeisthatguidanceanddatausedbyagenciesareroutinelyoutdatedanddonotaccountforclimatechangeorincreasesindevelopmentovertime,bothofwhichcanincreasefloodrisk.Oneintervieweenoted:“Ourcurves,ourguidance,ourhistoricaloperationsdonotapplytotheWhiteRiverrightnowandhaven’tforacoupleyears.Notonlyhasthechannelchanged,thegeometryhaschangedsothere’snotthecapacitydownstreambutalsothelandscape,theeconomiclandscapehaschangedinthevalleyaswell.Sowhatmayhavebeennuisancefloodingin1995orwhatevernowyouknowisafootofwaterin50industrialbuildings.”(USACE2017).Whereguidancedoesexist,SilverJacketsmembersaresometimesunawareofitordonotuseitregularlyintheirwork.NumerousintervieweesthroughouttheSilverJacketsTeamdiscussedthattheuseofoutdatedfloodplainmapsandmodellingbasedonhistoricaldataarenotprovidingaccurateinformation–thereforeunderminingstatedagencypriorities.
9.5 Coordination
WhiletheSilverJacketsisseenasanimportantnexusforinformationsharingandcollaboration,intervieweesidentifiedalackofcoordinationamongagenciesasachallengetocomprehensivelyincorporatingclimateconsiderationsintofloodriskmanagement.Intheinterviews,theWashingtonSJTeamwaswidelyseenashavingthepotentialtodomorewithmorecommunicationandbettercoordination.Oneintervieweecommentedthat“weweretryingtostillfigureoutwhattheprogramwasandhowitcouldbestbeutilized[...]butweweren’tdoingthecoordinationverywell.Soitwasalmostweweredoingitwithinabubble,
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whichisnotidealfortheSilverJackets.”(USACE2017).
InadditiontocoordinationinternallyamongtheSJTeam,intervieweessuggestedthatthischallengeextendstocoordinatingprocessesandcommunicationwiththelocalofficialsandthepublic:“iftherewasmoreconsensusacrossagenciesthatitwouldhelp[...]they[thepublic]askafewdifferentpeopleandiftheygettwotothreedifferentanswerssuddenlytheykindofshutdown.Theyfigurewellthisisjustcomplicatedandwedon’tknowyet.Iftherearethingsthatwereallydoknowthengettingeverybodyonthesamepage”(FEMA2017).Alackofcoordinationandalignment,particularlyregardingengagementefforts,leadstoconfusionandmixedmessages,andisahindrancetoclimate-resilientplanningandmanagement.
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10 ClimateResilientFloodRiskManagementGoals:FramingtheWorkplan:
Throughanalysisoftheinterviews,theresearchteamidentifiedfiveoverarchinggoalswhichtheworkplanactionitemsaddress.Thesegoalsalignwithexistingfloodriskmanagementpriorities,addressthechallengesidentifiedbytheinterviewees,andwereframedforthepurposeofidentifyingfeasiblenear-termactionsfortheWASJTeam.Thegoalsareasfollows:
1. Thepublicunderstandsandappreciatesfloodrisk
2. Localplannershavetheresourcestoincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintofloodriskplanning.
3. Agenciesconsistentlyuseclimateinformationinriskmanagement,planning,andprojectdesign.
4. Agencyrolesareclearanddonotconflict;agenciescoordinateandleverageresourcesaccordingly.
5. Floodriskmanagementincreasesfloodplainresilienceovertime
Goalsarediscussedindividuallyinmoredetailbelow.
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10.1 Goal1:Thepublicunderstandsandappreciatesfloodrisk
ExistingProblem:Thepublicasawholedoesnotunderstandand/orappreciatethefloodingassociatedrisksfromclimatechangefortwoprimaryreasons:
• Politicizationofclimatechange:portionsofthepublicdonotacceptclimatechangescienceasrealandsomefederalagencieshavebeentoldnottoaddressit/usetheterm
• Lackofappropriateresourcesandtoolsforcommunities:existingclimatechangeandfloodriskinformationisnotwrittenforapublicaudienceandisnotatascalethatisrelevanttothecommunity-level,wheremostagencyoutreachoccurs.
Description:Theintervieweeshighlightedthatalackofpublicawarenessoftheincreasedfloodriskassociatedwithclimatechangeisachallengetheyfaceinaddressingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.Intervieweesidentifiedtwodistinct,ifinterrelatedcomponentsofthisissuewhichshouldinformtheapproachinaddressingit.Thefirstisthatclimatechangeremainsapoliticalissueformanypeople,andthosethatquestionthesciencemaynotbemotivatedtoaddresstheassociatedimplicationsforfloodrisk:“Ifpeopledon’tbelieveitthenpeopledon’ttakeactiononit[…]It’sthecommunity;it’stheindividuallandowner.[…]Thereisacertainelementofshuttingdown.”(FEMA2017).Manyintervieweeshighlightedthepoliticalchallengeofevencommunicatingaboutclimatechange:“Infactwewererecentlytoldthatwe’renottousethetermclimatechangeanymore.We’resupposedtobeusingclimateresilience”(NRCS2017).Communicatingaboutclimatechangeisparticularlyfraughtintheseinstances,giventheneedformanySilverJacketsmemberstoremaincredibleinothercircumstances–forexample,whenissuingemergencyfloodwarnings.
Thesecondaspectofthischallengethatintervieweesnotedwasafailuretoprovidetheappropriatetoolsandresourcestoindividuallandownersandcommunitiesaboutchangesinfloodrisk.Thegeneralsentimentwasthatexistingresourcesaboutclimatechangeandfloodriskare(a)notwrittenforageneral/laymanaudience,and(b)notproducedataspatialscalethatisseenasapplicabletocommunity-scaleplanning.Intervieweesinvolvedindirectoutreachatthecommunitylevelalsostressedtheneedtoexpandandimprovetheiractivitiesandresourcesforthiswork,whichisoftenresource-constrained:“ifIhadtheresourcesevennowIwouldwanttomakeitapointtogetouttoeverycommunity[…]andatleastmeetwiththeirstaff,offertoattendacitycouncilmeetingandtalktothecitycouncilandsayhereisyourriskandherearesomepossibleremedies;werecommendyouincorporatethefollowingthings.I’d
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liketodothatnow.Don’thavetheinformation,don’thavetheresources.”(ECY2017).Thereisalsoanelementofthinkingabouttheframingandmessagingofthisinformation.Forexample,theNWShasconductedsocialscienceresearchtoidentifycommunicationapproachesthataremoreeffectiveatmotivatingaction,andanumberofintervieweeshighlightedtheneedforclimatechangeinformationtobecommunicatedviaasourcethatthecommunitytrusts.
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10.2 Goal2:Localplannershavetheresourcestoincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintofloodriskplanning
ExistingProblem:Localplannerslacktheinformationandagencysupporttoincorporateclimatechangeintofloodriskplanningandmanagementonthelocallevel.Becauseofthis,local-levelfloodriskplanningisoftennarrowlyfocusedonprotectionoflifeandproperty,andrarelyaccountsforthelong-termcostsandimpactsofclimatechange.
Description:Intervieweesexpressedthatlocalplannersareoftencentralinaddressingandplanningforfloodriskonthelocallevel.Inmanycaseshowever,localplannersdonothaveadequateandaccessibleinformation,agencysupport,orlocalcommunityinterestinincorporatingclimatechangeconsiderationsintotheirfloodriskplanningefforts.Oneintervieweesaid“Communityplannersaredoingsomuch.I’mjustinaweofallthethingstheydo.Theycanonlydosomuchatonetime.Theycan’tstartmakinguptheirownprograms.”(ECY2017).Whilethisproblemisexacerbatedbyagenerallackofresourcesforplanninginsmallcommunities,inmanycasesitisalsorelatedtoalackofstraightforwardandaccessibleinformationandagencysupporttoeffectivelyutilizethatinformation.Oneintervieweestated:“there’sdefinitely[…]asensethatwehaven’tbeenprovidingthetoolstocommunitiesthattheyneedtomakethesedecisions”(ECY2017).Intervieweesagreedthatclimatechangeeffectsonfloodriskarecomplicated–tomodel,tounderstand,andtouseeffectively–particularlyforalocalplannerwithnobackgroundinhydrologyorclimatescience.
Whilesomeofthischallengecanbeaddressedattheleveloftheplanners,intervieweesidentifiedanumberofmechanismsbywhichtheirownagenciesdonotadequatelysupporttheuseofclimatechangescienceinlocalfloodriskmanagement(beyondasimplelackofresources).USACE,forexample,wasseenasroutinelyprioritizingstructural(levees,dams,etc.)overnon-structuralapproaches(e.g.,acquisitions)toreducingfloodrisk.“Atonepoint,unlessthingshavechanged,wewereexpectedforfloodriskreductiontolookatastructuralalternativeandlookatanon-structuralalternativeandcomparethem.Generallyspeaking,thestructuralalternativeistypicallycheaper[...]Soyouknowbutifyoursystemissetupwhereitjustturnsoutthatyou’resetuptomoreoftengotoastructuralresponsethananon-structuralresponseandyougetreallygoodatenactingstructuralresponses”(USACE2017).Insomeinstances,structuraloptionscouldresultinhighercostsaswellasgreaterrisktolifeandproperty.Whetherthecauseisduetoassumptionsintheirbenefit-costanalysis,amore
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streamlinedadministrativeprocessforstructuralfloodprotections,orsomeotherreason–intervieweesagreedthattheremaybemoreofatendencytoadoptstructuralsolutionsevenwhenotheralternativeswouldmoreeffectivelyreducerisk.
Similarly,FEMAintervieweeshighlightedtheroletheirmapsplayinconstrainingcomprehensivefloodriskplanning.Specifically,thebinaryapproachtodefiningwhatisinsidevs.outsidethefloodplainmeansthatonlythosecommunities/individualswithinaFEMA-definedfloodplainengageinplanningactivities.“Rightnowwedoaonepercentchancefloodandwecreatethemapbasedoffofthat;that’swhatyouhavetobuildto;that’swhattheirinsuranceisbasedonandIthinkitwouldbebettertohaveakindofagraduatedriskintheunderstandingofthefullrangeoffrequenciesandsothepolicieswillbereflectiveof[that]”(FEMA2017).
Intervieweesalsohighlightedthatmuchofthecurrentfloodriskplanningoccursatthe(limited)projectscaleandthatawatershedorreach-scaleperspectiveisoftenneeded.Onemainareawhereamoreholisticperspectivecouldhelpisindevelopmentinthefloodplain.Thereiswideagreementthatbothpresentandfuturefloodplaindevelopmentshouldbeevaluatedclosely.“Reallylookingatcommunitiesandlookingatthelargerfloodriskandlookingaheadofit,notjustlookingatthedevelopmentpermitinsomeofthemrightnow,butaskingwhereshoulddevelopmentgorelatedtothefloodplain?Whatsortoffloodplain[…]approachesareneeded?[...]Wewouldverymuchliketoreinvigoratethefloodplainplanningprogramontheplanningsideandgetresourcesouttocountiesparticularlytodofloodplainplanning”(ECY2017).Thelackofthiskindofplanningnotonlyputspeopleandpropertyatrisk,butitisalsocostlyandfrustratingtofederalagenciesinvolvedindisasterreliefandrebuildingactivities.FEMAandEMDintervieweesreferredspecificallytotheneedforpre-existingandcomprehensivefloodresponseplans.
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10.3 Goal3:Agenciesconsistentlyuseclimateinformationinriskmanagement,planning,andprojectdesign
ExistingProblem:Thelackofclearguidancetoagenciesonhowtoincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintotheirworkleadstopiecemealincorporationor,morecommonly,noincorporationatall.Theproblemistwofoldinnature:
• Lackofknowledgeofandconfidenceinexistingclimateresourcesthatmightbeused
• Lackofclearinstitutionalprocesstofacilitateincorporationofclimatechangescienceintofloodriskplanning,management,andprojectdesign
Description:Intervieweesexpressedthattheydonotknowhowtouseexistingclimateresourcesintheirworkandthatthereisnoformalagencyprocessorguidancefordoingso.Thelackofknowledgeofandconfidenceinexistingclimatechangesciencewasdiscussedinanumberofways,butmostsuggestedtheneedforcapacitybuildingandpossiblysomeadditionalresearch.Forsome,theissuewasaroundbetterunderstandingthemethodsandmodelsusedtoformulateclimateprojections:“Iwanttoengagewiththosepeoplethataredeveloping[climate&floodriskprojections]andtalkthroughitsothatIreallyunderstanditandI’mnotjustcommunicatingsomebulletpointthatIread.”(NWS2017).Forothers,thebarriertousingclimateinformationwasthelargerangesofimpactsthatthemodelspredict:“havingmodelingwherewecanatleastgetsomekindofconfidencelevelandsayhere’stherangewecanworkwithwithinacertainconfidencelevelandbeingabletopresentthat”(ECY2017).Otherintervieweesfeltthattheydidnotknowhowto“asktherightquestions”andnavigatingtheexistingresourceswas“toomysterious.”
Ontheotherhand,evenwhenpractitionerswouldliketoincorporateclimateconsiderationsintotheirworkandhaveidentifiedusefulresources,theyareoftennotpermittedtoincorporateitintoplanning/design/managementworkbecausethereisnoexistinginstitutionalframeworkorprocessforusingthatinformation.Thisisawidespreadchallengethatmanyintervieweesidentified:
• “currentlyrightnow,noneofouragencypoliciesrequirethatweaccountforclimatechangeinthedesignofcertainfloodcontrolstructures”(NRCS2017)
• “[theframework]hasn’tbeeninterpretedtomakeaddressingclimatechangesomethingthathastobedone,amandatoryelementlikeaminimumfloodplainstandard.[…]
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Thereisnoequivalentforclimatechange”(ECY2017)
• “somesortoffairlyprescriptiveguidancethatmadeiteasyforustoimplementclimatescienceintoourplanningprocess.Ifit’snotinourplanningprocess,it’snotgoingtogetused”(USACE2017)
Intheabsenceofapolicy,apushtoincorporateclimateconsiderationsmustcomefromalocalsponsororpartner,oragencystaffwhoarelikelytobetoldthattheprojectbudgetwillnotcovertheadditionalcost:“Ithinkthat’sreallythecruxofit[…]whatI’mseeingnowwithoureffortstotryandaccountforclimatechangeinourdesignsandplanningistotheextentthatcostsmoretodonowtosaveussomeproblemsdowntheroad,I’mseeingareluctancefromthefundingfolkstoallowforthattohappen.”(USACE2017).
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10.4 Goal4:Agencyrolesareclearanddonotconflict;agenciescoordinateandleverageresourcesaccordingly
ExistingProblem:ThereisalackofcoordinationbetweenagenciesandtheSilverJacketshavenotyetrealizedtheirpotentialasanexusofcoordinatedaction.Thereisanincreasingneedtocoordinateandforagenciestoexaminetheirownmandatesandactionstoensurethattheyarenotimpedinglong-termfloodriskgoals.
Description:AfewintervieweesexpressedthatthereisalackofcoordinationbetweenagenciesandthatSilverJacketshasnotyetrealizeditspotentialasacoordinatingbody.Oneintervieweecommentedthatalackofagencyconsensuscancomplicatecommunicationwiththepublic“iftherewasmoreconsensusacrossagenciesthatwouldhelp[…]they[thepublic]askafewdifferentpeopleandiftheygettwotothreedifferentanswerssotheykindofshutdown.Theyfigurewellthisisjustcomplicatedandwedon’tknowyet.Ifthere’sthingsthatwereallydoknowthengettingeverybodyonthesamepage.”(FEMA2017).IntervieweesidentifiedtheSilverJacketsasapotentialnexusofcommunicationandcoordination,aswellasanaturalavenueforpartnerships.WhileintervieweeswereoverwhelminglypositiveabouttheSilverJacketsprogram,itismainlyseenasaresourceforinformationexchangeandsharingprojectupdates.TheWashingtonStateSilverJacketsteamisrelativelynewandstilldefiningitsrole:“Ithinkweweretryingtostillfigureoutwhattheprogramwasandhowitcouldbestbeutilizedandweweren’tdoingaverygoodjob.WewereactuallyfundedforsomeoftheseinteragencyprojectswheretheygaveusapotofmoneytodoastudywiththeSilverJackets.But[…]weweren’tdoingthecoordinationverywell.ItwasalmostlikeweweredoingitwithinabubblewithintheCorps,whichisnotidealfortheSilverJackets”(USACE2017).ThoseinvolvedinSilverJacketsarehighlypositiveaboutitasaneducationandinformationsharingresource,particularlyaroundclimatechangeissues,andfeelthatitcouldbedoingmore“Formebeing[…]aplanner,aregulatoryperson,thetechnicalperspective[ofSilverJackets]becausethereareanumberofclimatologiststhatattendthemeetings.That’sbeenaneducationforme.[...]InthefutureIthinktheycouldbeabighelpis[...to]helpustomovetowardsacommonvisionofhowtoapproachtheseproblems.Thatmightbehelpful.”(ECY2017).
Intervieweesexpressedsomeconcernthatcoordinationcanbechallengingattimesbecauseagencymandatesandprocessesmayactuallyunderminethelong-termfloodriskmanagementgoals.Forexample,intervieweesfromtheCorpsnotedthatultimatelycontinuingtobuildleveesmaynotbethebestlong-termsolutiontomanagingriskinthefloodplain.However,due
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toexistingprocessesandconstraints,largestructuralprojectsarethemostcommonapproachtofloodriskmanagement.“Asalwaysisthecaseyou’vegotthisconflictortensionbetweentryingtogivetheriverspacetobreathe,youknowandfolksthatwanttomaximizeuseofthelandwhetheritisfarmingordevelopment”(USACE2017).AnNRCSintervieweealsoexpressedthatsomeoftheiractivitiesinthefloodplainmaybecontrarytolong-termgoals,particularlyaroundclimate-relatedchangesinfloodrisk.Ensuringthatfloodriskmanagementactionsdonotconflictwithoverarchingpriorities(ofprotectionoflifeandpropertyandtheenvironment)orwiththeactionsofotheragencies,particularlywhenfacingachangingclimate,isanimportantcomponentofclimateresilientfloodriskmanagement.
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10.5 Goal5:Floodriskmanagementincreasesfloodplainresilienceovertime
ExistingProblem:Currentpracticesinfloodriskmanagementdonotincludeconsiderationofclimatechange.Furthermore,existingpracticescansometimesleadtoincreasedexposuretoriskoverthelongterm.Ultimately,climate-resilientfloodriskmanagementshouldresultinlowerlong-termcosts.
Description:Floodriskmanagementisgenerallyfocusedoncurrentasopposedtofuturerisk,andfloodprotectionsareoftenplannedasareactiontohighimpactevents.Anintervieweecommentedonthecurrentapproach:“weareworkingkindofinthiscircularpatternofconstructingfloodcontrolstructures[...]Ifweareconstructingthosewithoutrecognitionofclimatesciencewe’regoingtobeinacircularpatternofrepairorreconstruction”(USACE2017).Thispatternofrepairandreconstructionindicatesalackoflong-termvisionorresiliencefortheregion:“We’llhelppayfortheprotectionof[infrastructurefromflood].Andthenyou[...]setupasituationwherenowit’sincentivizing[development].You’venowsetupasituationwherethingscanthenbechangedonalandscapeandmakeitevenmoreimperativethatthingsdon’tgetwet.”(USACE2017).Allowingcontinueddevelopmentinthefloodplainwithoutacoordinatedlong-termvisionincentivizestheconstructionofinfrastructureinflood-proneareas.Inaddition,incorporatingadditionalfreeboardorbuildinghigherleveesmayprovidegreaterprotectionbutdoesnotnecessarilyincreaseresilience.Thischallengeisexacerbatedbythefactthat“resilience”offloodplainsisnotanagreedupongoaloreventerm:“Howdoyouactuallydefineresilienceinthatsense?[...]Itcouldbethatatsomepointwedecidethere’sapossiblepopulationofwhat’sgoingtohappenwithclimatechange.Dowedesignsothatiftheworstthingoccurswe’restillataminimumforlifesafetyorfordamage,casualtiesorsomething[else]?Anythingthat’slessthanthatweshoulddobetteron.”(USACE2017).
Thisgoalrequireslookingbeyondtheprocessesdiscussedinpreviousgoalstothedesiredoutcomeofachievingamoreclimateresilientstate.ExistingfloodriskmanagementsystemsinWashingtonStatearecomplicatedandmulti-layered.Aswithanycomplexsystem,thereistheriskthatcapacitydevotedtoprocessmaylimitthecapacityavailabletoachievedesiredoutcomes.Thisgoalwasincludedtoensurethatsuccessismeasuredintermsofoutcomesaswellasprocess:“Ithinkit’dbeverydifficulttoreactorproactivelymakeadjustmentsorinfluencepeople’sdesiresbasedonsomethingthatmayhappen40yearsfromnow.Ithinkthat’sreallythecruxofitintermsofwhatI’mseeingnowwithoureffortstotryandaccountforclimatechangeinourdesignsandplanning:theextentthatwhileitcostsmoretodonow[it
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11 Solutions:WashingtonSilverJacketsWorkplan
Thefollowingrecommendedactionsarebasedonthegoalsandchallengesdiscussedabove,aswellastheknowledgeoftheresearchteamandtheirestimatesastofeasibility.Theresearchteamhasattemptedtoprovideconcrete,descriptive,andactionableworkplanitemsthataregroundedintheneedsandprioritiesdiscussedintheinterviews.TheactionspresentedbelowaretobereviewedandprioritizedbytheSilverJacketsteammembersattheWorkshoponJune1.Theyareinnoparticularordernowandwillbere-ordered,updated,andaddedtoaftertheWorkshoptoreflecttheprioritiesidentifiedatthatevent.Broadly,theworkplanrecommendationsareasfollows:
A. Developimprovedestimatesoffuturefloodimpacts
B. Developresourcesforlocalplanners
C. Buildcapacityandcoordinationonresilientfloodplainmanagement
D. Improvepublicengagement
Coordinatefloodplainmanagementgoalsandplanning
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11.1 WorkplanItemA:Developimprovedestimatesoffuturefloodimpacts
• GoalsAddressed:(1)Publicunderstanding,(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices
• Rationale:Estimatingfuturefloodimpactswillallowagenciesandcommunitiestobetterunderstand,planfor,andmanagetheirrisk.Currentinformationdoesnotadequatelyportrayrisk
• Intervieweeperspectives:
o “Soherearetheareasatriskandbeingabletolayitoutforcommunitiessayinghere’stherisk,here’sthedollaramountyou’retalkingabout,here’sthepublicinfrastructure,thecity’sinfrastructureatrisk;here’syourrisk.Sotoreducethathere’ssomethingswesuggestandthenwemoveintothat.”(ECY2017)
o “Ifsomethingischangingfromwhatwehavebeenexpectingorusedtoexpectinordertogetthatrightourinformationisgoingtohavetotakethatintoaccountandportraythataswell”(NWS2017)
11.1.1 A.1. Precipitation Extremes
HeavyprecipitationeventsareakeydriveroffloodriskacrossWashingtonState.Althoughmuchisknownaboutthekeydriversofprecipitationextremes,additionalworkisneededto(1)bettercharacterizecurrentextremestatisticsandtheirspatialdistribution,and(2)improveestimatesoffutureprecipitationextremesandtheirimpactsacrossthestate.SpecifictasksrangefromupdatingtheNOAAAtlastooptimizingregionalclimatemodelsimulationsoffutureprecipitationevents.
Examples:
• UpdatingtheNOAAAtlas.TheNOAAAtlas14“Precipitation-FrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates”servesasthestandardforengineeringdesignandplanningforprecipitationextremes.Thecurrentanalysisisbothoutofdateandpremisedontheassumptionthatthestatisticsofprecipitationarestationary.Thistaskcouldincludepreliminaryworkintendedtoeithercomplementand/ormotivatefutureupdatestotheAtlas,orcouldinvolvecoordinatingstatesamongtheNWregiontoprovidefundingforNOAA’supdateoftheatlas.
• DoPMFestimateschangewithclimate?Resamplethehistoricalrecordtoestimateprobablemaximumflood(PMF),orotherdesignstorms,andevaluatehowthesechangeasafunctionoftemperatureandprecipitation.Usethesensitivitiesto
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estimatepossiblefuturechanges.Arehistoricaldesignstormssufficientlyconservative?Thiscouldbecoupledwithananalysisofregionalclimatemodelprojectionstoevaluatethepotentialforchangesinthefuture.
• Whatarethelarge-scaledriversofAtmosphericRiver(AR)events?ThegeneralconditionsthatdetermineAReventsareknown:theserequirehighvaporconvergencedrivenbyalargesoutherlyswingofthejetstream.Incontrast,thespecificconditionsthataffectthespatialdistributionprecipitationwithintheregionarenotwellknown.Thisworkwouldseektoidentifylarge-scaleconditionsthatarelinkedwithhigh-intensityprecipitationinspecificpartsofthestate(e.g.,EasternCascades,PugetSoundlowlands,PalouseHills).ThisworkwouldleverageexistingworkbytheClimateImpactsGrouptoidentifydiagnosticsthatcanbedevelopedfromglobalmodelprojectionsandusedtoestimatechangesinprecipitationonsub-regionalscales.
• Validationandintercomparisonofexistingclimatechangedatasets.Numerousdownscaledclimateprojectiondatasetsarenowavailable,butverylittleinformationexistsabouttherelativemeritsofeach.Forexample,mostexistingprojectionsarederivedfromstatisticaldownscaling,yetseveralrecentstudieshaveshownthataphysically-basedapproach–dynamicaldownscaling–isneededtocapturetheeffectsofclimatechangeonextremeprecipitation(e.g.,Salathéetal.2014).Thisprojectwouldcompareaselectionofexistingdatasetstoobservationsforaselectionofflood-relevantmetrics.Thiswouldprovideinformationontheperformanceofeachapproachasafunctionofmetricandlocation.
• Updatedhistoricalsimulationsofprecipitation.Observationally-basedhistoricaldatasetsareusedtodrivehydrologicmodelsinordertoreproducepastfloodevents.Currentdatasetsarelimitedintheircharacterizationofhistoricalweatherevents:resultsarelimitedtoa6-hourlyordailytimeresolution;existingrecordsendin2010or2013;andmanyexhibitareaswhereobservationsarelacking,particularlyinhighelevationareaswheresnowaccumulationisimportant.Newhistoricalsimulations,usingaregionalclimatemodel,couldbedevelopedinordertoprovideabetterbaselineforestimatinghistoricalfloodrisks.Inadditiontosimulationsoftherecentpast(1950-2017,1979-2017),long-termcontrolsimulationscouldbeusedtobettercharacterizeveryrareextremes(e.g.,the500-yearevent).
• Morefutureprecipitationsimulations.Futureprecipitationisbestassessedusingregionalclimatemodelsimulations(Salathéetal.2014).Existingsimulationsare
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limitedinnumber,makingitdifficulttoassessuncertaintyintheprojectionsandarriveatrobustestimatesoffutureconditions.Thisworkwouldaugmenttheexistingprojectionswithnewregionalclimatemodelsimulationsalongwiththepost-processingneededtodevelopdatasetsthatcaneasilybeincorporatedintofloodstudies.
• Optimizationofprecipitationsimulations.ExistingworkbytheUWRegionalModelingConsortium,underthedirectionofCliffMass,hasalreadyoptimizedthe12-kmimplementationofWRFforweatherforecasting.However,someprocessesthatareimportantforfloodrisk(e.g.,thunderstorms)maynotbeadequatelyrepresentedininthecurrentmodelconfiguration.Inaddition,thecurrentmodelisoptimizedforweatherforecasting,andmaynotbeadequatelyoptimizedforclimatesimulations.Thisresearchwouldtestdifferentmodelconfigurations,evaluatingthesensitivitytomodelresolution,parameterizations,andupdatestonewerversionsofthemodel.Existingperformanceevaluationsoftheforecastingsystemwouldbeleveragedbyfocusingonlyonmetricsforwhichstatisticsdonotalreadyexist.
11.1.2 A.2: Streamflow Extremes
Theprimaryclimatedriversofpeakstreamfloweventsaretheintensificationofraineventsandthereductioninsnowpackathigherelevations.Thesechangesareconfoundedbychangesinlandcoverandlandusethatarenotrelatedtoclimate--suchasloggingordevelopment.Pastandongoingworkhasquantifiedclimatechangeimpactsonpeakflowevents.Additionalworkisneededtobothassesstheimplicationsofexistingprojectionsandimproveonthosedatasets.Specifically,existingworkhasprimarilybeenappliedatrelativelycoarsespatialscales(5x7kmgridcells),andrelativelylittleworkhasbeendonetoaccountforthecombinedinfluencesofclimatechange,landuse,andreservoirmanagement.Inaddition,modelevaluationmetricshavegenerallyemphasizedthehistoricalaveragesinstreamflowasopposedtothesensitivityofstreamflowtowarming.Thistaskshouldincludeanyproject--modelingorempirical--thatimprovesthecharacterizationoffuturechangesinpeakstreamflow.
• Influenceoflanduseandlandcoverchangeonstreamflowandstreamtemperature.Linkobservedchangesinbothstreamflowandstreamtemperaturetochangesinlanduseovertime,acrossarangeofwatershedsandconditions.Theassessmentwouldincludebothfloodriskandsalmon-relevantmetrics(lowflows,streamtemperature)inordertohighlighttheinterplaybetweenimpactsonfloodriskandsalmonrecovery.Identifyareaswhereimprovedlandcoverorsoilsinformationisneeded.Ifdesired,thiscouldbecombinedwithamodeling
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assessmentoffuturefloodriskthatincorporatesprojectedchangesinlanduseundervariouspolicyordevelopmentscenarios.Althoughanalyseslikethesehavebeenperformedforsomecommunitiesandwatersheds,amajoradvantageofthisanalysiswouldbeastandardizedassessmentforallofWashingtonState.
• Whatisthemaximumrunoffratio?Relateprecipitationandpeakflowmeasurementstoidentifyanupperlimittothepeakflowsexpectedforagivenprecipitationtotal.Usethisasaconstraintonhydrologicmodelprojectionsbycomparingwhatwouldbeobtainedfromprecipitationchangesalone.SimilarworkisinprogressatUSGSbyChrisKonradandMikeDettinger.Thisprojectwouldexpandontheirwork.
• Bettercalibrationmetricsforhydrologicmodeling.Hydrologicmodelcalibrationtypicallyemphasizesstaticmeasuresofstreamflowsuchasthelong-termaveragemonthlyandannualflows.Inanon-stationaryclimate,thisdoesnotguaranteethatsimulationswillbehaveaccuratelyinfuturesimulations.Thistaskwouldidentifyandtestnewmetricsthataimtoensurethatthesensitivityofhydrologicmodelsimulationsiswellcalibrated.
• Small-streammonitoring.Floodriskassessments,alongwithmajorfloodprotections,areoftenlimitedtolargermainstemsites.Yetfloodsremainanissueonmanysmallertributaries.Alackofmeasurementscanoftenhinderfloodriskassessmentsandinfrastructuredesigndecisions.Thiseffortwouldidentifyasubsetofsmallstreamsformonitoring,selectedbasedonexposuretofloodingandtocoverarangeofconditions.
• HistoricalandPaleohydrology:Bettercharacterizationofpastfloodrisk.Recentandpaleoevidenceofpastfloodextentscandrasticallyalterestimatesofpeakfloodevents.Thistaskwouldcompileexistinginformationfrombothhistoricalaccountsandgeologicevidence,highlightingareaswheretheserecordsleadtoadifferentestimateofflowextremesthanwouldbederivedfromgageobservationsalone.Iffeasible,additionalworkcouldbedonetosearchhistoricalrecordsorevaluatethegeologicevidenceoflargefloods.Inadditiontothecentralestimatesforspecificexceedancevalues,specialattentionwouldbegiventoquantifyingtheuncertaintyintheseestimates.
• Whichtrendsaresignificant?MarkMastin’srecentreport(Mastinetal.2017)providesanassessmentoftrendsinpeakflowsinWashingtonState.Thisworkcouldbeexpandedtoincludeothermetricsrelatedtofloodrisk(e.g.,precipitation
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extremes,stormsurge,windintensity,andsnowpack).Thesecouldbeintegratedintoanonlinetoolthatuserscanusetobrowsetrendsintheregion(e.g.,theClimateImpactsGrouprecentlyproducedasimilartoolforSeattleCityLight.
• Validationandintercomparisonsofexistinghydrologicchangedatasets.Inthepastdecade,manydatasetshavebecomeavailablethatquantifyfuturechangesinstreamflow.TheongoingStructureforModelingMultipleAlternativesproject(SUMMA)isaimedatmoreaccuratelyquantifyingtheuncertaintyinfutureclimatechangeprojections.ThisworkwouldcomplementtheSUMMAworkbyevaluatingexistinghydrologicprojections,incomparisonwithobservations,forasuiteoflocationsandpeakflowmetrics.Thiswouldshedlightontherelativemeritsofeachapproach,andhowtheperformancediffersasafunctionofmetricandlocation.
• Canexistingreservoirsmitigatechangingfloodrisk?Existingprojectionsofchangingstreamflow,withtheexceptionofonestudyontheSkagitRiver(Leeetal.2016),donotaccountfortheeffectsofreservoiroperations.Inwatershedswithmajorreservoirs,thiscouldmeanthatexistingprojectionsoverestimatethechangeinfloodrisk.Thistaskwouldprovidesurvey-levelinformationonexistingdamsandthepotentialformitigatingfuturefloodriskinWashingtonState.Thiswouldincludebothaninventoryofdamsandasetofsummaryproductsthatillustratethepotentialforflowmodificationateachlocation(e.g.,mapsshowingthepercentoftheupstreamcatchmentthatiscapturedbyreservoirsandthecapacityofeachdamrelativetoanticipatedpeakflowvolumes).Iffeasible,thiscouldbeaugmentedbyusingexistingstreamflowprojectionsandreservoirmodelstoestimatefuturechangesinregulatedflows.
11.1.3 A.3. Coastal Flood Risk
Substantialworkhasalreadybeendonetodevelopsealevelriseprojectionsandguidancethatclarifieshowthisinformationcanbeusedinplanninganddesign(e.g.,NRC2012,USACEEngineeringRegulation:ER#1100-2-8162).Ongoingworkisalreadyfundedandunderwaytoupdatesealevelriseprojectionsusingaprobabilisticframeworkanddevelopnewcommunity-scaleestimatesofverticallandmotion.However,currentprojectsarelimitedintheirassessmentofbothcurrentandfuturerisksduetostormsurgeandwaves.
• CoSMoS(CoastalStormMonitoringSystem).USGSiscurrentlyinitiatinganefforttodevelopanintegratedmodelthatiscapableofcapturinginteractionsamongsealevelchange,tides,stormsurge,andwaveswithriverflow,aswellastheassociated
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implicationsforcoastalfloodrisk.ThisfollowsotherCoSMoSeffortsthathavebeencompletedinotherpartsofthecountry.Initialdevelopmentofthemodelandsupportingdatasetsisalreadyunderway,includingpreliminarywaveforecastsandanevaluationofexistingwindproducts.Ultimately,themodelwillcoupleforecastingcapabilitieswithlong-termclimatesimulations.Inadditiontoprovidingdirectestimatesofcoastalfloodrisk,themodelcanprovideinformationonthepotentialforshorelinechangeduetowaveenergydissipationandotherprocesses.
• Observedwindsanalysis:trendsandextremes.Thistaskwouldundertakeasystematicassessmentofobservedwindextremes,quantifyingdifferencesamongextremequantiles,winddirections,andseasonality.Thesewouldbeevaluatedtoquantifycurrentconditionsaswellasthesignificanceanddirectionoftrends.Previouseffortshavequantifiedhistoricalextremestatistics;theproposedanalysiswouldexpandonpreviouseffortsbyassessingthepresenceorabsenceoftrends.
• Whatarethelarge-scaledriversofwindstorms?Theconditionsthatdrivehighwindeventsaregenerallywellknown.However,thespecificsofhowthesearelinkedtohigh-intensitywindsinspecificpartsofthestatearenotwelldefined(e.g.,outercoast,EasternCascades,PugetSoundlowlands).Thisprojectwouldidentifylinksbetweenlarge-scaleconditionsandwindeventsandusethesetoevaluatethepotentialforchangesinwindintensityinthefuture.
• Validationandintercomparisonofexistinghigh-resolutionwinddatasets.Althoughseveralhigh-resolutionwinddatasetsareavailableforuseinsurgeandwavemodeling,littleisknownabouthowtheseperformrelativetoobservations,inparticularforthepurposeofsurgeandwavemodelinginWashingtonState.ThiseffortwouldbuildoncurrenteffortsbyUSGStoevaluateexistingwindforecastsbyexpandingtheirvalidationeffortsandevaluatingregionalmodelsimulationsofhistoricalwinds(theiranalysisiscurrentlyfocusedonforecastproducts).Thiswouldprovideinformationontheperformanceofvariouswinddatasetsasafunctionofmetricandlocation.
• Updatedhistoricalsimulationsofwinds.Observationally-basedhistoricaldatasetsareusedtodrivesurgeandwavemodelstoestimatecoastalfloodrisk.Currentdatasetsarelimitedintheircharacterizationofhistoricalweatherevents:resultsarelimitedtoa6-hourlyordailytimeresolution;existingrecordsendin2010or2013;andmanyexhibitareaswhereobservationsarelacking,particularlyalongthecoastswherewindscanchangedramaticallyfromonelocationtothenext.Newhistorical
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simulations,usingaregionalclimatemodel,couldbedevelopedinordertoprovideabetterbaselineforestimatingpeakwindevents.Inadditiontosimulationsoftherecentpast(1950-2017,1979-2017),long-termcontrolsimulationscouldbeusedtobettercharacterizeveryrareextremes(e.g.,the500-yearevent).
• Morefuturewindsimulations.Globalmodelsaretoocoarsetoestimatefuturewinds,andnocurrentapproachallowsforstatisticaldownscalingofwinds.Existingsimulationsarelimitedinnumber,makingitdifficulttoassessuncertaintyintheprojectionsandarriveatrobustestimatesoffutureconditions.Thisworkwouldaugmenttheexistingprojectionswithnewregionalclimatemodelsimulations,alongwiththepost-processingneededtodevelopdatasetsthatcaneasilybeincorporatedintosurgeandwavemodeling.
• Optimizationofwindsimulations.ExistingworkbytheUWRegionalModelingConsortium,underthedirectionofCliffMass,hasalreadyoptimizedthe12-kmimplementationofWRFforweatherforecasting.However,windextremesmaynotbeadequatelyrepresentedgiventhecomplexcoastlineofWashingtonState.Inaddition,thecurrentmodelisoptimizedforweatherforecasting,andmaynotbeadequatelyoptimizedforclimatesimulations.Thisresearchwouldtestdifferentmodelconfigurations,evaluatingthesensitivitytomodelresolution,parameterizations,andupdatestonewerversionsofthemodel.Existingperformanceevaluationsoftheforecastingsystemwouldbeleveragedbyfocusingonlyonmetricsforwhichstatisticsdonotalreadyexist.
11.1.4 A.4: Future Flood Maps
Todate,moststudieshaveevaluatedfuturefloodriskintermsofchangesinpeakflowsinrivers,ortheextentofsealevelriseexpectedinthefuture.Yetfloodriskmanagementistypicallypremisedonanunderstandingofthecombinedinfluenceofpeakflowsandsealevelonthedepthandextentofflooding.Manyfloodplainshavebeenmappedforfloodinsurance,butthesestudieshaveemphasizedthe100-yearfloodandfewstudieshaveevaluatedtheeffectsofclimatechange.Inaddition,fewstudiesexistforsmallertributaries,especiallyinareaswithrelativelylittledevelopment.ThepurposeofthistaskistoassessfuturechangesinthedepthandextentoffloodingacrossWashingtonState.Thesecouldbeapplieddirectlytoplanningoradditionaleconomicmodelingcouldbeconductedtoestimatethecostoffutureflooding.
• Refinedtopographicfloodplainanalysis.Thisworkwouldrefineandimproveupon
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thetopographically-basedestimatesoffloodplainextentdevelopedbyKonrad(2014).Thesehavegreatpotentialforuseinresilientfloodplainmanagementsincetheyillustratethegeomorphicfloodplainasopposedtotheregulatoryfloodplain,whichmayberestrictedbyhumanmodificationstothelandscape.However,thecurrentdatasetrequiresadditionalrefinementtocorrectforinaccuraciesandidentifyarobustbest-estimateoffloodplainextent.Inaddition,thedatasetcouldbeaugmentedtoincludesmallertributaries,coastalfloodplains,andareasatriskofcoastalerosionandchannelmigration.
• Pilotstudiesleveragingexistingefforts.Thistaskwouldpilottheintegrationofclimateandhydrologicprojectionsinhydrodynamicmodelingstudies.Leveragingexistingfloodstudies(e.g.,RiskMAP,USACE,etc.),researcherswouldtailorexistingprojectionsforuseasinputstothehydrodynamicmodelingwiththegoalofobtainingmapsoffuturefloodriskwhilecreatinglittletonoadditionalworkforthehydrodynamicstudyleads.Resultsoftheseeffortswouldbecompiledintoasetofcasestudiesdetailinglessonslearnedandthepotentialforexpansiontofacilitateincorporationofclimatechangeinfuturestudies.
• Statewidehydrodynamicmodeling.Recentadvancesincomputingpowerandmodelingapproacheshavemadeitpossibletorunhydrodynamicsimulationsoverlargeareasatonce(e.g.,Sampsonetal.2015).Ongoingworkaimedatquantifyingclimatechangeimpactsonstreamflow,precipitationextremes,andsealevelrisecanbeusedasinputtofloodmodels,resultinginregionalmapsofchangingfloodrisk.Giventhescopeofthecurrentmodel,anydomainuptoandincludingthecoterminousU.S.ispossible.Smallerscalesmayallowforbetterhydrologicprojectionsandamorecompletecensusofleveesandotherflowrestrictions.Resultswouldservetwoprimarypurposes:(1)awarenessraisingabouttheseverityoffuturefloodrisks,and(2)asabasisforregionalplanningandprioritization.
• Economicimpactsofflooding.Usehydrodynamicmodelingresultstoestimatethefuturecostsofflooding.ThiscouldbeaccomplishedusingFEMA’sstatewideHAZUSmodel,orusinglocalimplementationsofHAZUSorHEC-FDA.Theeconomicmodelingcouldbefurtherexpandedtocapturetherippleeffectsthatextendbeyondthedirectdamagetoinfrastructure(e.g.,lostproductivity,transportationdelays)usingacomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)model.
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11.2 WorkplanItemB:Developresourcesforlocalplanners
• GoalsAddressed:(2)Localplanning,(4)Publicengagement
• Rationale:Developingusefulandappropriateresourcesforlocalplannerswillhelpensurethattheyhavethetoolstheyneedtobothunderstandandcommunicaterisktotheircommunities,butalsoeffectivelyplanwithinthefloodplain
• Intervieweeperspectives:
o “Communityplannersaredoingsomuch.I’mjustinaweofallthethingstheydo.Theycanonlydosomuchatonetime.Theycan’tstartmakinguptheirownprograms.Theyreallyneedguidanceandsomeonewiththeinformedopinionandamonetaryreasonwhytheyshouldbedoingthesethings”(ECY2017)
o “Weneedtodothingsinsuchwaysaspeopleknowhowtotakeaction,whatactiontotakeandwilltakeaction.”(NWS2017)
11.2.1 B.1: Flood Risk “Bible”
IndividualSilverJacketsagenciesalreadyhavesomeguidanceonintegratingclimatechangeinfloodriskmanagement.Thisprojectwoulddevelopguidancethatwouldenableconsistentapplicationamonglocalsandacrossagencies.Designedtofunctionsimilarlytothefishpassage“bible”developedbyWDFW(Barnardetal.2013),thisguidancewouldbeintendedtosupportincorporationofclimatechangeinformationinprojectdesignandimplementation(planningguidanceisdescribedunderworkplanitemE.2).AlthoughtheguidancedocumentwouldnothavethesameauthorityasWDFWholdswithfishpassage,itwouldincludeinformationonassessingthesensitivitytoclimatechange,useandinterpretationofclimatechangeprojections,andapproachestomitigatingfuturerisks.Thedocumentwillbedesignedtobeconsistentwithexistingagencyguidance,notingareaswheretherequirementsdifferamongagencies.
11.2.2 B.2: Centralized Resources
Numerousresourcesexist--rangingfromdatasetstoguidancetofundingopportunities--foruseinpreparingfortheeffectsofclimatechange.Yetintervieweesindicatedthatagencystaffandlocalmanagersarefrequentlyunawareofexistingdata,guidance,andopportunitiesforresilientfloodplainmanagement(e.g.,existinghydrologicprojections,USACEguidanceoninlandhydrology,EMDfundingforHMPdevelopment,etc.),nordotheyalwaysknowhowbesttomakeuseofwhatisavailable.Thisprojectwouldcreateacentralizedresource,orsetof
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resources,forexistingdata,guidance,andfundingresources.Thiscouldbeawebsite,asetoffactsheetsorinfographics,orboth.Thenewresourcewouldbedesignedtobea“one-stop”destinationforexistingresources,combinedwithguidancetohelpusersnavigatetheoptionsandselecttheinformationthatbestappliestotheirparticularneeds.
Climatechangedatasetsonsealevelrise,streamflow,andprecipitationwouldbecompiledalongwithinformationabouthowtousethedata,howitcomparestootherdataresources,andwhatmethodswereusedtocreateit.Ideally,thisresourcewouldbesearchablebylocation,projecttype,etc.Ratherthanduplicatingexistingarchives,thesitewoulddirectuserstoexistingrepositoriescontainingoriginalsourcedata.Whenadditionalpost-processingisnecessary,productscouldbecreatedtominimizetheadditionalworkforusers.Finally,sincethescienceandprojectionsarecontinuallychanging,thesitewouldbedesignedtobescalablesothatnewprojectionscaneasilybeincorporated.
Similarly,thesitewouldcatalogexistingplanningprocessesandfundingresourcesthatarerelevanttofloodplainmanagement.Asabove,theemphasiswouldbeonexistingmaterialsandresources,butthesitewouldincludeinformationtohelpusersidentifytheguidanceandresourcesthatbestapplytotheirsituation.IfthecasestudiesprojectinB2ispursued,thesecouldbeaddedtothesite.
Thisprojectcouldbedesignedtoberelativelysimple(e.g.,augmentingtheSalishSeaWiki)ormorecomplex(e.g.,searchabledatabase,usertools,etc.).Thescopeofworkshouldincludeaplanforupdatingtheresourceasnecessary.
11.2.3 B.3: Case Studies
Thepurposeofthisworkistohighlightreal-worldexamplesofresilientfloodriskmanagementwiththegoalofillustratingwaysinwhichsimilarsuccessescouldbeachievedelsewhere.Casestudiesfocusedonsuccessfulfloodriskmanagementprovideapracticalcomplementtobetterinformationresources.AnexampleistheCRSGreenGuide,whichincludessuccessstoriesfromcommunitiesthathaveimplementedtheCRSprogram.AsacomplementtotheGreenGuide,whichprovidesaveryhigh-leveloverview,thistaskwouldbedesignedtoidentifyspecificactionsandapproachesthatfacilitateresilientfloodriskmanagementineachexample.Examplescouldrangefromsingleprojects(e.g.,theMt.Vernonfloodwall)towatershedplanningefforts(e.g.,thefloodelementsoftheYakimaIntegratedWaterPlan).Examplesneednotbeuniquelyfocusedonsuccesses,norwouldtheyneedtohaveincorporatedclimatechange.Instead,casestudieswouldbepickedtoillustrateelementsthatleadtogreaterresilienceoverallandhighlighttheprosandconsofvariousdecisions.Summarieswouldincludeinformationonthecontext(social,political,institutional,etc.)withinwhichtheprocessoccurred,dataonthefloodrisksfaced,theplanningprocess,obstaclesencounteredand
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overcome,fundingsources,theoutcomesandapproachesconsidered,andtheroleofdifferentagenciesincontributingtotheprocess.Lessonsdrawnfromthecasestudieswouldhighlightactionsthatcouldbetakenatthelocalaswellastheagencylevel.Materialscouldbedesignedtobemodularandincludebothhigh-levelanddetailedinformation,allowingforavarietyofaudiences.Thesecouldalsobeincorporatedinbothinternalandexternaltrainingefforts.
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11.3 WorkplanItemC:Buildcapacityandcoordinationonresilientfloodplainmanagement
• GoalsAddressed:(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices,(4)Publicengagement
• Rationale:Alloftheeffortsbelowinvolveconveningprofessionalsinterestedinresilientfloodplainmanagement(theSJTeam,scientists,andlocalfloodplainleaders,etc.),withtheultimateaimofcultivatinganetworkforsharedlearningandinformationexchange.Learningnetworkshavebeenshowntoincreasecapacitythroughinformationsharingandrelationshipbuilding.Theyhavebeenshowntoincreasecapacityofallinvolvedthroughleadershipcreation,informationsharing,andinnovation(Christieetal.2016).
• IntervieweePerspectives:
o “Iwanttoengagewiththosepeoplethataredevelopingthat[climatemodels]andtalkthroughitsothatIreallyunderstanditandI’mnotjustcommunicatingsomebulletpointthatIread.Thatatthispointisabarrier."(NWS2017)
o “Ithinkyouwouldn’twanttolimit[educationresources]toaspecificgroup.Ithinkthatyouwouldwanttotrytogettheinformationouttoasmanypeopleaspossible.”(NRCS2017)
11.3.1 C.1: Seminar series
Intervieweesnotedalackofcapacityfordealingwithclimatechangeinfloodplainmanagement.TheresearchteamiscurrentlypresentingbrieflyateachmonthlySilverJacketscalltobuildcapacityandawarenessonexistingresources.Thisprojectwouldcontinueandexpandonthosepresentationsasamechanismforsharinginformationinternallyandhearingfromotherspecialistsoutsideofthegroup(e.g.,JeffArnoldfromUSACEheadquarters,AnnBostromfromtheUWCommunicationsdepartment,PaulaHarrisfromWhatcomCounty).Whileoneobjectiveofthiseffortwouldbetoprovideinformationandanopportunitytoanswerspecificquestions,itisalsofocusedonrelationshipbuilding.Thenetworkingaspectcouldbeenhancedbyconveninganin-personspeakerseries,asopposedtowebinars,alongwithtimefornetworkingbeforeoraftereachtalk.Or,occasionaltalkscouldbecoupledwithexistingmeetingsconvenedbyWASJ,FloodplainsbyDesign,NORFMA,etc.Regardlessofformat,attendeescouldbeinvitedfrombeyondWASJtoincludeotheragenciesandlocalswhomaybenefitfromtheexchange.
11.3.2 C.2: Local Interviews
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ThecurrentprojectinvolvesinterviewingWASJagenciesabouttheneeds,challenges,andopportunitiesassociatedwithclimateresilientfloodplainmanagement.Manyintervieweecommentsconcernedtheneedsoflocals.Animportantcomplementtothecurrentinterviewswouldbetorepeatthesamediscussionswithlocalfloodplainmanagers.Thiswouldbothserveasawayto“groundtruth”thefindingsofthecurrentprojectwhilealsohighlightinggapsinthecurrentworkplan.
Inadditiontoanupdatedandmorecomprehensiveworkplan,resultscouldhighlightopportunitiesforalteringagencypoliciesandpracticestobettersupportresilientfloodplainmanagement.Sharedrecommendations,comingfromfloodplainmanagersacrossthestate,wouldlendmorestrengthandimpactthaniftheyweremadeindividually.Thisfeedbackcouldbesynthesizedintheformofletterstospecificagencies,presentationsonsuggestedchanges,orthecreationofspecifictrainingmodulesforagencystaff.Ingeneral,asynthesisoftheneedsofboththeWASJagenciesandlocalmanagerswouldhelpclarifywhichbarriersandopportunitiesshouldbethefocusofcontinuedeffortstoincreasetheresilienceofWashington’sfloodplains.
SubstantialeffortshavealreadybeenundertakenbyWASJandotherstoengagewithlocalfloodplainmanagers.Thisprojectwouldbeginbygatheringinformationaboutthoseeffortsandidentifyingwaystobuildonpreviousfindingswithoutburdeninglocalswithduplicativeprocesses.
11.3.3 C.3: Learning Network
TheSilverJacketsteamsinvolvecoordinationamongstateandfederalagenciesconcernedwithfloodriskmanagement.Thisdoesnotincludelocalfloodplainmanagersanddoesnotincludeotheragencieswhosepoliciesandpracticesaffectfloodplainmanagement(and,byextension,floodriskmanagement).Inparticular,giventhescopeoftheissuesimplicatedinaccountingforclimatechangeimpacts,itwouldbehelpfultoincreasecoordinationandinformationamonganetworkofagencyandlocalstaffinvolvedinresilientfloodplainmanagement.Thispurposeofthiseffortwouldbetoconveneanetworkamonginterestedfloodplainprofessionalsandcreateopportunitiesforsharedlearningandrelationshipbuilding.Ratherthancreatinganentirelynewnetwork,thiseffortwouldleverageexistinggroups,suchas:
• WASJ.TheSilverJacketsteamcouldbeexpandedtoincludenon-agencyfloodplainleaders.
• “FloodplainLeaders”group,convenedbyTheNatureConservancy(TNC)undertheFloodplainsbyDesignprogram.
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• TheCoastalHazardsResilienceNetwork(CHRN),convenedbytheWashingtondepartmentofEcologyandSeaGrant.
• NorthwestRegionalFloodplainManagementAssociation(NORFMA):Regionalnetworkoffloodplainmanagers.
• FloodplainsImplementationStrategyteam,convenedbythePugetSoundPartnership(PSP).
Activitiescouldincludenetworkingsessions,fieldvisits,shortcourses,webinars,orsimplyaquarterlyconferencecall.Inpersonactivitiescouldleverageexistingmeetingsandevents:theWASJannualmeeting,semi-annualFloodplainsbyDesignmeetings,NORFMA,etc.
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11.4 WorkplanItemD:Improvepublicengagement
• GoalsAddressed:(1)Publicunderstanding,(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices
• Rationale:Apublicthatisinformedandcaresabouttheirfloodriskwillcommunicatethattolocalplannersandelectedofficials.TheseactionsfocusonoutreachtotwospecificgroupswithwhomvariousSilverJacketsagenciesalreadyinteractinsomecapacity:cityandcountycouncils,andhomeowners/landowners/residentsinflood-proneareas.
• CityandCountycouncilswereidentifiedaskeytothedecision-makingprocessduetotheirroleinsettinglocalbudgetsandpriorities.Turnoverisalsohighamongthisgroup,meaningthatregularengagementisnecessarytomaintaininstitutionalknowledge.
• Thegeneralpublicultimatelyinformtheactionsoflocalgovernment.Theyarealsothemostpersonallyaffectedbyalackofclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagementinthattheysufferdirectlyfromflooddamagestotheirhomesandcommunities.Makingthisgroupawareofboththerisksandopportunitiestomitigatefuturefloodriskswillmotivateandempowerthemtoaddresstheirfloodriskonanindividualandcommunitylevel.
• IntervieweePerspectives:
o “getsomepublicinformationouttherebecausethereneedstobethepublicsupportinsteadofjustrampantpublicopposition.Let’ssaysomepublicsupport.Thecitycouncilsneedtohavesomefeelingthatthey’renotgoingtoreallyjustgetlostwhentheystartadoptinghigherregulatorystandards.”(ECY2017).
o “Wereallyarefocusingonexpandingouroutreachefforts.Sincetheyarestatewide,Idon’thavetheluxuryofjustgoingtoSeattlesuburbsandtalkingtofolkswhoalreadyknowhalfofit.IhavetohavematerialthatcanspeaktothembutcanalsobetransferrablewithmaybeanotherpresentationtothetownofWhitesburgorareallysmallcommunitythat’sjustattheveryearlystagesofevenunderstandingwhattheissueis.Therange,Ithink,isthechallenge.”(EMD2017)
11.4.1 D.1: Outreach Materials
Drawingonexistingscienceresources,createmapsandfiguresthatillustratefloodrisksandcostsforuseinengagingthepublicanddecisionmakers.Similarresourcesalreadyexist;these
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documentswouldbereviewedtoensurethattheyareaccurateandup-to-date,containguidanceonclimatechangewhererelevant,areeasilyavailablebothonlineandinphysicaloutreachandtrainingmaterials,andwritteninclearandaccessiblelanguage.Inaddition,thistaskwouldidentifyopportunitiestoaugmentexistingresources(e.g.,iftherearegapsintheinformationprovided)andconsolidatethemintoonesetofmaterials.Intervieweesindicatedthatcommunicatingthecostsoffuturefloodriskwilllikelyhaveastrongimpactonpublicunderstandingandengagementwithfloodrisk;apriorityinthisworkwillbetosynthesizeandinterpretexistinginformationontheeconomicconsequencesofflooding.Conversationswithlocalfloodplainleaderscouldprovideadditionalperspectivesonneedsandapproachesthatarelikelytobeeffective.
11.4.2 D.2: Coordinated Engagement
TheIdahoSilverJacketsTeam,consideredbymanyintervieweestobeagoodmodelforsuccessfulutilizationoftheSilverJacketsprogram,hasorganizedanumberofactivitiesaroundNationalFloodSafetyAwarenessWeek(seeNationalFloodSafetyAwarenessWeekActivitiesofIdahoSJTeam).Thiscomprehensiveawarenessandengagementcampaigntargetsadifferentkeygroupeachyear.Activitiesincludeagencyboothsatthestatecapitaltoanswerquestions,publicserviceannouncementsviasocialandtraditionalmedia,thecreationoftheIdahoFloods!guidebooktoraisefloodawareness,andworkshopswithcommunitygroups.ThisworkwouldbeginbygatheringlessonslearnedfromtheIdahoSJTeam.However,Idaho’sfloodcontextisdistinctfromWashington’sinthatfloodinginEasternandWesternWashingtontakesplaceatdifferenttimesoftheyearandislinkedtodistinctdrivers.Additionalworkcouldidentifywaystoaddressthisissueandeffectivelyengagebothgeographicaudiences.WASJintervieweesidentifiedcitycouncilsasanimportantaudience,bothduetotheirabilitytoadvancefloodriskmanagementgoalsandthehighturnoverinherentinthesepositions.Werecommendthatoutreachbetargetedatlocalcouncils.Suggestedactivitiesmightinclude:
• Identifyspecificcitycouncilsforfocusedengagement,rotatingeachyear.
• SJpresentationsonfloodriskmanagementandclimatechangeatcitycouncilmeetingsacrossthestate
• Regionalmeetingsforcitycouncilmembersandagencystafftodiscussclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement,answerquestions,andbetterunderstandneeds.
• Targetedemailswithinformationresourcesandopportunitiesforimmediateaction,identifiedbasedonexistingcontactsandrelationships
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• Mediaposts(socialandtraditional)highlightingandcelebratinggoodfloodriskmanagementactionsinlocalcommunities
• Selectatargetactionthatcitycouncilmemberscouldtake(e.g.,updatestoaspecificportionofanexistingplan,adoptinganewfloodmanagementordinance)andencourageallcitycouncilsstatewidetotakeactiononitduringtheFloodSafetyAwarenessWeekactivities
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11.5 WorkplanItemE:Coordinatefloodplainmanagementgoalsandplanning
• GoalsAddressed:(2)Localplanning,(3)Agencypractices,(4)Publicengagement
• Rationale:Localmanagershavelimitedcapacitytoaddressfloodriskissueswhilealsocomplyingwithanarrayofplanningprocessesthatarerequiredbystateandfederalagencies(hazardmitigationplans,comprehensiveplans,shorelinemasterplans,salmonrecoveryplans,etc.).Thisiscomplicatedbythefactthatplanningeffortsarenotalwayscentralizedwithinasinglecityorcountydepartment.Duplicationandincompatibilityamongvariousplanningeffortsmayresultinineffectivefloodplainmanagementandmayalsolimitthecapacityforlocalstoaddressotherconsiderations,includingclimatechange.Thiscouldbealleviatedbydevelopingcollectively-definedgoalsfortheSilverJacketsagencies,byworkingtoalignthefloodriskelementsofvariousplanningprocesses,andbyprovidingguidancetocommunitiesforimprovedcoordinationandconsistencyamongfloodplainmanagementplansandactivities.
• IntervieweePerspectives:
o “Strengtheningpartnershipsandrelationshipswithagenciesthatareonthecuttingedge.Weshouldbeonthecuttingedge.[...]Wemighthaveapieceofthepuzzle,butnosingleagencyisgoingtoownthewholepuzzle.”(EMD2017)
o “Butifyoutrytocombine[FRM]acrosstheentirewatershedyoumightactuallygetbetteraccountingofwhoisactuallyresponsibleforspecificrisk.[…]Theeasiestismitigationplannersworkingwithcommunitydevelopmentplannersandidentifyingprojectsandpreventingdevelopmentoffloodplain”(EMD2017)
11.5.1 E.1: Goals Statement
SilverJacketsteamsareintendedto“facilitatecollaborativesolutionstostatefloodriskpriorities”(https://silverjackets.nfrmp.us/,accessedMay20,2017).ThepurposeofthistaskistodevelopaconcisedefinitionoftheWASJteam’sgoalsforfloodplainmanagement,whichcanbeusedtoprioritizefutureeffortsbythegroup.Givendifferencesamongagencyrolesandthepotentialforclimatechangetodrivechangesinbestpractices,awell-definedgoalsstatementwouldservetoclarifythegroup’saspirationsandsystematizedecisionsaboutfuturework.ThisdefinitionshouldbereferredbacktoandusedasacriterionfordeterminingwhatactionsandprojectstheWASJteamselectstoworkon.
11.5.2 E.2: Planning Checklist
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FloodplainmanagementisimplicatedinawiderangeofplanningprocesseswithinWashingtonState:Comprehensiveplans,ShorelineManagementplans,HazardMitigationPlans,SalmonRecoveryPlans,WatershedPlans,etc.Althoughtheseplansincludecommonelements,itisrarethattheyarecreatedconsistentlyorevencoordinatedamongthesamelocalstaffordepartments.Internalconsistencyandimprovedcoordinationamongplanningprocessescouldreducethestafftimerequiredfortheseprocesseswhilealsoensuringthatfloodplainsaremanagedusingaconsistentsetofgoalsandstrategies.
Thepurposeofthisprojectwouldbetoensurethatclimate-relatedplanningrequirementsareconsistentacrossagencyprogramsandprovidesupportforlocalplannerstoaddressclimatechange.Initialworkcoulddevelopaconsolidatedlistofplanninginformationthatcouldthenbereplicated,asapplicable,acrossawidevarietyoflocalplans.Initialworkwouldidentifyplansthatrelatetofloodplainmanagementanddeterminehowexactlyclimateandfloodriskfitintoeachprocess.Thisinformationwouldbeconsolidatedintoasetofuniqueplanningelements.Thesewouldbesynthesizedinachecklistcoveringallrequiredplanningelementsrelatedtofloodplainmanagement,alongwithguidanceonincorporatingtherelevantelementsintovariousplans,waystoleverageagency-specificexpertise,andopportunitiesforintegratingclimatechangeconsiderations.Additionalguidancewouldidentifywheretoextractfloodplainrelevantelementsfromoneplanforuseinanother(e.g.,fromasalmonplantoacomprehensiveplan).Thisanalysiswouldalsohighlightwaysthatcurrentagencyplanningrequirementscouldbeimproved.Forexample,agenciescouldincludeconsistencywithexistingplansaspartoftheirevaluationcriteriawhenreviewingnewplans.
Table8(nextpage)summarizestheworkplanactionitemsandtheircorrespondencewithclimateresilientfloodriskmanagementgoalsfromsection9.
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Table8:Summaryofworkplanactionitemsandtheiralignmentwiththeclimateresilientfloodriskmanagementgoals:
WorkplanGoals
1.Pub
licUnd
erstan
ding
2.LocalPlann
ing
3.AgencyPractices
4.AgencyCo
ordina
tion
5.Resilien
tFlood
plains
Workplan
ActionIte
ms
A1.PrecipitationExtremes ü ü
A2.StreamflowExtremes ü ü
A3.CoastalFloodRisk ü ü
A4.FutureFloodMaps ü ü ü
B1.FloodRisk“Bible” ü ü
B2.CaseStudies ü ü ü ü
B3.CentralizedResource ü ü ü
C1.SeminarSeries ü ü
C2.LocalInterviews ü ü ü
C3.LearningNetwork ü ü ü
D1.OutreachMaterials ü ü ü
D2.CoordinatedEngagement ü ü ü
E1.GoalsStatement ü ü ü
E2.PlanningChecklist ü ü ü
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12 PrioritiesforNear-termAction
TheSilverJacketsWorkshop,heldonJune12017,servedasavalidationexerciseforthedraftrecommendations,whichweredevelopedoutoftheinterviews.Followinga90-minutesmallgroupreviewofthesupportingactions,SilverJacketmembersworkedtoprioritizethespecificactionstoinformtheirworkplanoverthenexttwoyears.Theactionswereassessedby9SilverJacketmembersusingthefollowingcriteria:
1. Feasibility:IstheactiontechnicallyandfinanciallyfeasibleforSilverJacketmemberstoleadand/orimplement?
2. Impactonfloodriskmanagement:
a. protectionoflifeandproperty
b. environmentalconsiderations
c. reductionoffutureexposure/risk:
3. ImpactonClimateResiliencyIntegrationGoals:Willtheactionhelpachievethegoalsofintegratingclimateresilienceintofloodriskmanagement?
Allfourteendraftworkplanactionsweredisplayedinthefrontoftheroom.SilverJacketmembersweregiventhreevotesforeachofthefivecriterionlistedabove.Memberswereaskedtofortheactionsthatbestmetthecriteria.Theywerefreetoapplyallvotestoasingleactionordistributethemacrossmultipleactions.SincethepurposeoftheworkshopwastoprioritizeworkfortheSilverJacketsteam,workshopparticipantsfromoutsidetheSilverJacketsgroupwerenotgiventheopportunitytovote.TheresultsareshowninFigure1.
Followingtheprioritizationexercise,allworkshopparticipantsdiscussedtheresultsandreachedconsensusonsupportingthefollowingactionsasnear-termpriorities:
● A1:PrecipitationExtremes
● D1:DevelopOutreachMaterials
● E2:Createaplanningchecklist
● A4:FutureFloodMaps[Notdiscussedindetailattheworkshop]
● C3:CreateLearningNetworks[Notdiscussedindetailattheworkshop]
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Participantsthenbrokeoutintosmallgroupdiscussionstoidentifyleadsforthefirstthreeprioritiesanddelegatetasksforeachteam.Followingarebriefdescriptionsofeachgroup’sconclusions.
Figure1:WASJprioritizationofactionitemsbasedonfeasibility,impactonfloodriskmanagementgoals(protectionoflifeandproperty,environmentalconsiderations,andreductionoffutureexposure/risk)
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12.1 NearTermPriorityA1:PrecipitationExtremes
WashingtonSilverJacketsLead:BrentBower,NationalWeatherService
GoaloftheWork:Improveestimatesoffuturefloodextremesandtheirimpactsincludingtheirspatialdistribution
ClimateResilientFRMGoalsAddressed:
• 2–LocalPlanning
• 3–AgencyPractices
PrioritizationScores:
Figure2:WASJprioritizationscoresbreakdownforactionA1:PrecipitationExtremes
DescriptionofInitialActions:
TheSilverJacketsagreedthatforWashingtonStateasawhole,themosteffectivewaytoaddresstheneedtobettercharacterize,understand,andimproveestimatesoffutureextremeprecipitationeventsisthroughsupportingtheregionalupdatetoNOAAAtlas14.NOAAhaspreparedaproposedscopeandbudgetbothforanupdatetotheAtlas,aswellasanoptional
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separatescopetoassessnon-stationarityinprecipitation.
TheNOAAbudgetfortheAtlas14updatewouldcostWashingtonState$400-600K.EffortsbytheWASJteamwillfocusoncoordinationwithothergroupsthatmaybenefitfromtheNOAAAtlasupdate,writingandsolicitinglettersofsupport,performingexamplecalculations,andotherwiseidentifyingtasksandapproachesthatmayincreasethechanceoffunding.
TheWASJTeamplansreachouttootheragenciesandregionalcoordinationgroupssincethesegroupsmayhavealreadylookedintooptionsforfundingtheNOAAeffort,andthecostislowerifthestatesofWashington,Oregon,Idaho,andMontanacancoordinate.TheteamcurrentlyplanstoconsultwiththeOregonandIdahoSilverJacketsteams,theNorthwestRegionFloodplainManagementAssociation(NORFMA),andtheWashingtonStatedepartmentsofTransportation(WSDOT)toassesscurrenteffortstoobtainthisfunding.
PreliminaryActionsIdentifiedintheWorkshop:
• BrentBower(NWS)tocommunicatewithNOAAHeadquartersandactasliaisonbetweenWASJTeamandNOAAonthiswork
• TedPerkins(FEMA)tocommunicatewiththeOregonSJTeam
• KatherineRowden(NWS)tocommunicatewiththeIdahoSJTeam
• HansHunger(NORFMA)togaugeNORFMAsupportforNOAAAtlasupdate
PotentialFundingSources:TheWashingtonSilverJacketsteamwillsupportthiseffortthroughin-kindcontributionsoftimeandresources.
UnassignedTasks:
• SJvolunteertocontactWSDOTregardingactingasanotherpotentiallead
• SJvolunteerneededtoperformexampleanalysesshowingdifferencesinprecipitationstatisticswhenobservationsafter1970areincluded
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12.2 NearTermPriorityD1:OutreachMaterials
WashingtonSilverJacketsLead:TravisBall,ArmyCorpsofEngineers
GoaloftheWork:Developinteragencyoutreachmaterialsonclimatechangeandfloodriskmanagement,tailoredwithlocally-relevantinformationforindividualjurisdictions(PowerPoints,website,brochures,videos)
ClimateResilientFRMGoalsAddressed:
• 1–PublicUnderstanding• 2–LocalPlanning• 4–AgencyCoordination
PrioritizationScores:
Figure3:WASJprioritizationscoresbreakdownforactionD1:OutreachMaterials
DescriptionofInitialActions:
TheSJgroupagreedthattargetinglocalelectedofficialsshouldbethepriorityofoutreach,with
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asecondarygoalofstrategicoutreachtothegeneralpubliconreducingfloodriskandbuildingclimateresilience.Thesmallgroupemphasizedthatdifferentstrategiesandmaterialsmaybeneededforeachgroupandlocation,andnotedtheimportanceofcommunicatingviaatrustedmessenger.TheyalsofeltitwasimportantthattheSilverJacketsnameandbrandwasincludedonoutreachmaterialsinordertopresentaunified,consistent,andtrustworthymessage.
PreliminaryActionsIdentifiedintheWorkshop:
• ReviewNWSsocialscienceandFEMAoutreachcontractorresearchoncommunicatingfloodriskinamannerthatleadstorisk-reducingactions.Ifneeded,engageaconsultantorsomeoneintheacademiccommunityonmessagingaroundclimatechangeandfloodrisktoensurethatexistingmaterialsareappropriateandnewmaterialsareeffective
• Reviewexistingoutreachmaterialsacrossagencies
• Ensurethatrelevantsourcesofclimateinformationareincludedandexplained
PotentialFundingSources:TheresearchteamhelpeddraftaFloodplainManagementServices(FPMS)grantapplication,aprogramoftheUSACE.TheWASJhassuccessfullyreceivedthisgrantinpreviousyearsfortheirpost-firefloodingcommunicationgrants,andUSACEstafffamiliarwiththeprogrambelieveitisagoodfit.
UnassignedTasks:
• SubmissionofFPMSfundingopportunity
• ContactingNWS,FEMA,and/oracademicpartnerregardingcommunication
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12.3 NearTermPriorityE2:CreateaPlanningChecklist
WashingtonSilverJacketsLead(s):DerrickHiebert,EmergencyManagementDivisionandDaveRadabaugh,WAStateDepartmentofEcology
Goalofthiswork:Ensurethatclimate-relatedplanningrequirementsareconsistentacrossagencyprogramsandprovidesupportforlocalplannerstoaddressclimatechangethroughcreationofaplanningchecklist
ClimateResilientFRMGoalsAddressed:
• 2–LocalPlanning
• 3–AgencyPractices
• 4–AgencyCoordination
PrioritizationScores:
Figure4:WASJprioritizationscoresbreakdownforactionE2:PlanningChecklist
DescriptionofInitialActions:
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TheWASJTeamdeterminedthatthecreationofaplanningchecklistwouldbeaneffectivemethodtoalignwhat“climateintegration”meansasarequirementandtoensureconsistencyacrossplanningprocesses.Thechecklistwillsupportlocalgovernmentsinidentifyingwhatplansrequireclimateinformationanddevelopingaconsistentsetofinformationthatcanbeusedformultipleplanningprocessesandrequirementsacrossdepartments.Thisisworkwillrequireathoroughreviewofexistingguidanceinformationandtheincorporationoflocalperspectives.
PreliminaryActionsIdentifiedattheWorkshop:
• Gatherexistingguidanceinformationfromagenciesthatcurrentlyincorporateclimateconsiderationsinfuturefloodpredictionsintheirplanningprocessesincluding:
o DepartmentofCommerce:comprehensiveplansandCAOs
o DepartmentofEcology:floodplainmanagementandNFIP,SMPs
o DepartmentofNaturalResources&FishandWildlife:mitigationprograms
o NOAA:salmonrecoveryplansandESAconsiderations
o EMD:HMPs
• Compareexistingguidanceandmakerecommendationsforconsistency
• Holdaworkshopforagenciestoreviewrecommendations
• Pilottheguidanceonaselectfewjurisdictions(largeandsmall,eastandwestside)
• Reviewfeedbackfrompilotjurisdictionsandadjustchecklistresourceaccordingly
PotentialFundingSources:DaveRadabaughandDerrickHiebertarebothfundedfortheirparticipationintheWASJ.AdditionalfundingisbeingdiscussedviaWASJdiscretionaryfunds.
UnassignedTasks:
• Applicationforadditionalfundingifdeemednecessary
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13 Conclusions
AsclimatechangecontinuestoaffectfloodriskinWashingtonState,coordinationandcommunication,bothamongagenciesandbetweenagenciesandlocalcommunities,willbecomeincreasinglyimportant.Climatechangechallengesexistingfloodmanagementapproachesandhighlightsimportantdatagaps.Italsostressesexistingmanagementsystemsandincreasestheneedforimprovedinstitutionalprocessesandoutreachefforts.Giventheirtechnicalandmanagementexpertiseandtheimpactoftheircombinedactionsasaninter-agencyteam,theWashingtonSilverJacketsgroupisuniquelypositionedtoactasaresourceandaleaderinincreasingtheclimateresilienceofWashington’sfloodriskmanagementsystem.TheWASJteamisnewrelativetoteamsinotherstates,butmembersareengagedandenthusiasticaboutaddressingthischallenge.Theyarealreadytakingactiontofundandbeginworkonthenear-termprioritiestheyidentified.Wehopethatthisprojecthashelpedcatalyzetheircollectiveenergyandresourcesaroundthistopicandthattheworkplancontinuestoserveasaroadmapforongoingcollaborationonclimate-resilientfloodriskmanagement.
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15 Appendix
15.1 WashingtonSilverJacketsRoster
Agency LastName FirstName Position
FEMA Perkins Dwight(Ted) RegionalEngineer
FEMA Riedy Michael VoluntaryAgencyLiaison
FEMA Stone Kelly RiskAnalyst
NOAA Bower Brent ServiceHydrologist
NOAA Bryant Andy ServiceHydrologist
NOAA Intermill Joe Hydrologist-In-Charge
NOAA Lohmann Marilyn ServiceHydrologist
NOAA Rowden Katherine ServiceHydrologist
NOAAFederal King Stephen ServiceCoordinationHydrologist
NORFMA Hunger Hans CapitalImprovementProgramManager
NRCS Johnson Larry ConservationEngineer
NRCS Lange Joe DesignEngineer
OWSC Bumbaco Karin AssistantStateClimatologist
USACE Ball Travis HydraulicEngineer
USACE Bessey G.H. LeveeSafetyProgramManager
USACE Boen Cindy ProjectManager
USACE Downing Daryl ProjectManager
USACE Hobbs BrandonW. DistrictOutreachCoordinator
USACE Ifft CharlesH. LeveeSafetyProgramManager
USACE Katz DanielM. HydraulicEngineer
USACE Schwarz Tracy WallaWallaDistrictHydraulicEngineer
USACE Sclafani Paul HydraulicEngineer
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USACE Stidham JefferyL. DisasterResponseManager
USACE Weber DouglasT. EmergencyManagementChief
USGS Mastin Mark SurfaceWaterSpecialist
WAECY Franklin Jerry RiskAnalyst
WAECY McKinney Scott FloodplainManagement:StateCoordinator
WAECY Radabaugh David NFIPStateCoordinator
WAECY Schmidt Lynn FloodplainManagement:EasternWashington
WAECY Talebi Bobbak CoastalProgramPlanner
WAECY Walther Martin HydrologicEngineer
WAEMD Hiebert Derrick HazardMitigationStrategist
WAEMD Spicer DavidN. HazardMitigationGrantCoordinator
WAEMD Tomt Sarah TsunamiProgramCoordinator
WAEMD Walker Brynne TsunamiProgramCoordinator
WSDOT Himmel John WSDOTEmergencyandSecurityManager
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15.2 WorkshopAttendeeList
Agency/Organization
LastName FirstName Title
CIG Morgan Harriet ResearchConsultant
ESAConsulting Easton Spencer ProjectManager
FEMA Perkins Dwight(Ted) RegionalEngineer
KingCounty Comanor Kyle SeniorEngineer
KingCounty Murray BrianPolicyandProgramSupervisor:RiverandFloodplainManagement
NOAA Bower Brent ServiceHydrologist
NOAA Rowden Katherine ServiceHydrologist
NORFMA Hunger Hans CapitalImprovementProgramManager
PierceCounty Walker Brynne TsunamiProgramCoordinator
USACE Brettman KennethSeniorWaterManager:WesternWashington
USACE Dillon Jeff CivilWorksProjectManagementChief
USGS Labiosa Bill RegionalScienceCoordinator
USGS Matsin Mark SurfaceWaterSpecialist
WAECY Radabaugh David NFIPStateCoordinator
WAECY Schmidt LynnFloodplainManagement:EasternWashington
WAECY Walther Martin HydrologicEngineer
WAEMD Hiebert Derrick HazardMitigationStrategist
Organizer:UWSMEA Kennard Haley GraduateStudentResearchAssistant
Organizer:CIG Mauger Guillaume ResearchScientist
Organizer:HookEnvironmental Hook Abby Facilitator
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15.3 InterviewGuide
1. IntroductoryQuestions:
a. Fortherecording,couldyoutellusyourname,youjobtitle,andabitaboutyourcurrentrole?
b. Howlonghaveyoubeenworkingasafloodriskmanager?
c. HowlonghaveyoubeeninvolvedwithWASilverJacketsandwhatistheroleofyourorganizationwithinSilverJackets?
d. HowwouldyourateyourfamiliaritywithclimatechangeimpactsinWashingtonStateandcurrentclimatescienceresources?
2. Descriptionofproblemandcurrentstateofintegration,anduseofresources:
a. Whataretheprimarycausesoffloodinginyourregion?Whateventstypicallyleadtoextremefloodevents?
b. Broadlyspeaking,whataresomeelementsofsuccessfulfloodriskmanagement??
c. Inyourwork,whatarethecurrentprioritiesformanagingfloodrisk?
d. What,ifany,arethebenefitstomakingfloodriskmanagementmoreresilienttoclimatechange?
e. Areyoucurrentlyusingclimatechangeinformationinyourwork?
• IfNOTUSINGCCinfo:Whynot?Doyouhaveauseforclimatechangeprojections?Whatbarriersexisttoyouusingthisinformation?
• IfUSINGCCinfo:Ifso,how?Whatresourcesdoyouuse?Whatsourcesdoyouturntoforthisinformation?Arethoseresourceseffective?
3. ChallengesandOpportunities:
a. Whataretheopportunitiesformakingfloodriskmanagementmoreresilienttoclimatechangeinthenearterm(<5yrs)?Inthelongerterm(>5yrs)?
b. Whataretheprimaryinstitutional/organizational/political/legal/technologicalbarriersfacingtheintegrationofclimatechangescienceintofloodriskplanning
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andmanagementinyourwork?
c. Whatisneededforyouragencytobetterintegrateclimatescienceintofloodriskplanning?
d. Inanidealworld,whatonefactororbarrierwouldyouchangesothatyourinstitutionmightbetteraddressclimatechangeandfloodriskmanagement?
e. Ifyouhadtofindawaytomakefloodriskmanagementmoreresilienttoclimatechangewithinyouragency’scurrentauthoritiesandprograms,howwouldyougoaboutit?
f. Howdoesyouragency’sparticipationinSilverJacketsorothercollaborationsimproveyourabilitytoaddressthesechallenges?
4. SolutionsandInformationNeeds:
a. Whatadditionalscience/data/modelingresourceswouldmakeintegrationofclimateinformationeasier/better?
b. Whatwouldyoudowiththatinformation?Howwouldyouuseittoimprovemanagement?
c. Whatelseisneededinordertobetterintegrateclimatechangescienceintofloodriskplanningandmanagement,outsideofscienceneeds?
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15.4 AnalyticalCodesList
• BenefitstoimprovingCC-resilienceofFRM
• Challenge/barrier:Other
• Challenge/barrier:Science
• Decision-makingandagency
• EffectsofCConFRM
• Existingmanagement
• FRM:actions
• FRM:impacts&causes
• FRM:priorities
• Futuremanagement
• Opportunities&successes
• Risk&uncertainty
• Solutions/needs:Other
• Solutions/needs:science&data
• SuccessfulFRM
• UseofexistingCCresources
• ValueofSilverJackets
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