aidc real estate update residential trends january 19,...
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© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
1
AIDC Real Estate UpdateResidential Trends
January 19, 2017
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
What data does Metrostudy collect?
•Who is Metrostudy?
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Who uses Metrostudy?
•Who is Metrostudy?
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Current ContactInformation:
Ben SageDirector, Mid-Atlantic RegionPhone: 703-574-8429Email: bsage@metrostudy.com
Brooke BurnsDirector of Business DevelopmentPhone: 301-448-5001Email: bburns@metrostudy.com
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Washington DC MetroResale Market
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Northern VirginiaMLS Annual Sales and Listings
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Listings
Annual SalesSource: MRIS
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Source: MRIS
Northern VirginiaMLS Months Supply of Listings
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Northern VirginiaMLS Median Price History
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Trendline
Source: MRIS
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Suburban MarylandMLS Annual Sales and Listings
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Listings
Annual Sales
Source: MRIS
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Source: MRIS
Suburban MarylandMLS Months Supply of Listings
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Suburban MarylandMLS Median Price History
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
Trendline
Source: MRIS
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Washington DC MetroS&P Case-Shiller Index (January 2000 = 100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Washington DC MetroS&P Case-Shiller Index YOY Percent Change
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Washington DC MetroNew-Home Market
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Washington DC MetroResidential Permit/Starts History
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
MFSF
Sources: Census Bureau ('95-'03)Metrostudy ('04-'16)
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Washington DC MetroMulti-family as a Percent of All Permits
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Source: Census BureauForecast: Metrostudy
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
National OverviewMetro Areas Ranked by Annual SF Permits (Sep ’16)
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Denver
Salt Lake
Tampa
Nashville
Charlotte
Washington DC
Austin
Orlando
Phoenix
Atlanta
Dallas/FW
Houston
Source: Metrosearch USACensus Bureau
-5%
+7%
+13%
+11%
+7%
+15%
+18%
+16%
+24%
+27%
+12%
+28%
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Maryland2015/16 Starts by County and Y-O-Y % Change
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750
Carroll
Calvert
St. Mary's
Harford
Baltimore
Charles
Frederick
Washington DC
Howard
Montgomery
Prince George's
Anne Arundel
4Q15
4Q16
Source: Metrostudy
* Only counties with 150+ annual starts shown
-22%
69%
8%
-10%
16%
21%
24%
11%
11%
-1%
41%
-1%
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
MarylandCommunities Ranked by 3Q16 Annual Starts
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
MarylandMedian New and Resale Closing Price History
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000New Homes
Resale HomesSource: Metrostudy (Analytics)
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
MarylandPercent of Median New Home Price Above Resale
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Source: Metrostudy Analytics
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Northern Virginia2015/16 Starts by County and Y-O-Y % Change
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Jefferson
Culpeper
Fauquier
Spotsylvania
Frederick
Berkeley
Fairfax
Stafford
Prince William
Loudoun
4Q15
4Q16
Source: Metrostudy
* Only counties with 100+ annual starts shown
-7%
-22%
24%
32%
21%
15%
-9%
9%
-9%
-35%
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Loudoun CountyAnnual Starts and Percent Share of NoVA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000ShareU
nits
Loudoun County
Percent of NoVA
Source: Metrostudy
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Loudoun County Map
Southeast CornerOf County AccountsFor 80% of Activity
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Northern VirginiaCommunities Ranked by 3Q15 Annual Starts
Rank Community CountyPrice
Range AnnualStarts
AnnualClosings
1 Brambleton Loudoun $445-$810 329 3222 Moorefield Station Loudoun $465-$705 248 1793 Loudoun Valley Loudoun $260-$552 227 2584 Willowsford Loudoun $580-$1325 225 1965 Virginia Manor Loudoun $289-$730 198 2056 Shenandoah at Lake Fred Frederick $200-$485 165 1407 Westridge Loudoun $305-$568 145 1548 Wentworth Green Prince William $321-$580 133 1359 Stone Ridge Loudoun $340-$714 130 12310 Celebrate Virginia Stafford $190-$335 126 11811 Dominion Valley C.C. Prince William $297-$821 121 122
cont'd
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Northern VirginiaMedian New and Resale Home Closing Price
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000New Homes
Resale HomesSource: Metrostudy (Analytics)
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Northern VirginiaPercent of Median New Home Price Above Resale
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Source: Metrostudy Analytics
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Essential Ingredients• Job Growth
• Low Unemployment
• Healthy Resale Market
• Low Mortgage Rates
• Favorable Demographics
Should mean a somewhat improved housing market in 2016
© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company
Thank You!
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