amanda graning amy henry mike bettwy carol christenson dan miller dean melde peter parke edward...

Amanda GraningAmy HenryMike BettwyCarol ChristensonDan MillerDean MeldePeter ParkeEdward FlenzGreg FrosigTom LonkaKevin DonofrioDeclan Cannon

WFO Duluth, Minnesota

Example of a Collaborative Office Project

Vision: "Keeping America SAFER by understanding and integrating societal impacts into NWS products and services; to enhance public awareness and readiness associated with weather, water, and climate."

Societal Applications For Enhanced Readiness

My office is full of deadbeats

Assessing the Threat of Winter Events

I have a few

ideas, but…

Couldn’t get off ground

No one was interested

…stuck in

their ways

How do I

get people

motivated?

Why was this successful??

Disclaimers• Not Perfect • Not a Human Behavior Expert• Personal Experiences

Assessing the Threat of Winter Events

Weather Forecasting Office Duluth, MN

There are situations where the physical science can be perfect, but its utility is greatly reduced where there is not adequate attention to the societal aspects

Motivation

An effort to create a historical reference for use in assessing the threat of snowfall cases that may or may not fall into the National Weather Service (NWS) defined criteria for winter weather advisories or warnings

Goal

Danger Degree Project

Develop a "checklist" of factors that are given values Weather and non-weather

Values are added to result in a Danger Degree (threat

level) for that event

Theory: Higher the score, greater the potential impact

Danger Degree Project

Specific Location Duluth, MN International Falls, MN

Event Criteria Snowfall of >2” Looked at Daily Climate Report

(LCDs)

Weather & Societal Factors METARs

Sum Each Section

The Checklist WFO Duluth, MN

The Checklist High Travel Periods

MEA Weekend Start Tribune,. Bob Von Sternberg“At Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, this long weekend [ MEA ] is as busy, or busier, than Thanksgiving”

HS State Tournament Data MN State High School League

2006 October 11-13thDLH

3

2

6

5

14

First >2 of winter

SN began 400 am

Mixed Phases

Gusts 30-35 kt for 24 hrs

Began: 36 F & Rain

SN ended for 4 hrs - then continued.

Snow Total = 3.5” 2.3” in 24 hr period.

Danger Degree Project

Disclaimers

Caution! Assigning Values to EventNot Intended to Categorize Storms (like Hurricanes)

A Tool for Addition Perspective

May miss “Big Picture”

Adapted to other Areas & Hazards

91%

60%

Danger Degree Project

Danger Degree Project

Warning Events

Danger Degree Project

Advisory Events

Danger Degree Project

No Headline

Danger Degree Project

What was the Impact?

Several Warnings with Danger Degree Values < 5 Low potential Impact

Events with Danger Degree > 14 with No Headline High Potential Impact

All Starts with an Idea

Keys to Engaging OthersEmailed the Staff

Keys to Engaging Others

Voluntary

Engaging Others

Clear Vision

Engaging Others

Flexible

Engaging Others

Trust

CommunicationFlexibleSeveral MeetingsClear ExpectationsUpdatesIntranet page

Project Leader

"There's nothing more demoralizing than a leader who can't clearly articulate why we're doing what we're doing.“ --James Kouzes and Barry Posner

Amanda GraningAmy HenryMike BettwyCarol ChristensonDan MillerDean MeldePeter ParkeEd FlenzGreg FrosigTom LonkaKevin DonofrioDeclan Cannon

Know Your People

Thank You

Amanda.Graning@noaa.gov