an analysis of tanker and bulker ton mile demand · an analysis of tanker and bulker ton mile...

AN ANALYSIS OF TANKER AND BULKER TON MILE DEMAND

tobyyeabsley@vesselsvalue.com

Toby Yeabsley

1. A short introduction to VesselsValue

2. What is ton mile demand?

3. How do we calculate it?

4. What does it tell us about the market for tankers and bulkers?

TOPICS

INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE

The Online Shipping & Offshore Market Intelligence and Valuation Service

INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE

INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE

ESTABLISHED 2010

OFFICES London (HQ), Isle of Wight (Data), Stoke (Coders), Singapore (Rep)

PEOPLE 85 (from 4 in 2010)

INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE

CLIENTS 750 logins, 360 companies, 48 countries

CLIENT TYPES Banks, Owners, Funds, Governments, Regulators, Lawyers

WHAT IS TON MILE DEMAND?

TON MILE DEMAND

Laden distance travelled X

Amount of cargo carried

for every vessel in the fleet

DISTANCE TRAVELLED

Identify vessel JOURNEYS A journey is

• Picking up cargo

• Dropping off cargo

Laden Ballast

A VESSEL’S JOURNEYS

A VESSEL’S JOURNEYS

IDENTIFYING JOURNEYS

Not so easy, many complications:

Issue

• AIS draft reporting not good enough to accurately identify

laden/ballast status

Resolution

• Use stoppages + load/discharge port data + clever algorithms

STOPPAGES

Identifying cargo related stoppages critical but not easy

Complications from Stopping for:

• Bunkering

• Surveys

• Drydocking

• Waiting / idling

• Multiple discharges

• Transhipments

STOPPAGES

STOPPAGES

Algorithm driven

VESSEL HEATMAP

TON MILE DEMAND BY VESSEL

TON MILE DEMAND BY COMPANY

TON MILE DEMAND BY ANY GROUPING YOU WANT

COUNTRY TO COUNTRY

PORT TO COUNTRY OR PORT

ACTIVITY

HISTORICAL DEMAND VS SUPPLY (HELPS BUYING / SELLING DECISIONS)

CAPESIZE TON MILE

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2012Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Demand is growing but so is the fleet

Strong seasonality

CAPESIZE TON MILE DEMAND

5.7% 6.5%

5.1% 3.7%

5.7%

12.2%

17.3%

21.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Annual TMD % Cumulative TMD %

CAPESIZE FLEET GROWTH

3.4%

4.3%

-0.2% 1.4%

3.4%

7.8% 7.6%

9.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Annual Fleet % Cumulative Fleet %

CAPESIZE TON MILE DEMAND – FLEET GROWTH

2.3%

4.5%

9.8%

12.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Cumulative TMD % - Fleet Growth %

TRADING ROUTE EVOLUTION (HELPS OPERATIONAL DECISIONS)

PANAMAX BULKERS GRAIN TRADE INTO CHINA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17

Australia - India Australia - China China - China Brazil - China USA - China

USA PRODUCT TANKER TRADE

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USA Product Tanker Ton Mile Demand Growth by Quarter

Domestic Trade Non Domestic Exports Non Domestic Imports

WHO IS IMPORTING IRANIAN CRUDE?

SUMMARY

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