analytical guidance_ turkey intensifies its role in syria _ stratfor

7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

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Analytical Guidance: Turkey Intensifies Its Role inSyriaAnalysis JULY25,2015|00:00GMT Print TextSize

SummaryTurkeyischangingbothitsmilitarypostureanditspoliticalpolicytowardSyria.Formanyyears,astheSyrian

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TurkisharmyvehiclesandpersonnelwaitatanassemblyareainSuruc,neartheSyrianborder,Feb.23.(ILYASAKENGIN/AFPPhoto)

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civilwarraged,Turkey'sprimaryfocuswasonremovingBasharalAssad'sgovernmentratherthanbattlingtheIslamicState.AnkaraavoideddirectparticipationinthefightagainsteitheralAssadortheIslamicState,limitingitsrolelargelytosupportingcertainSyrianrebelfactions.OnereasonforthisstancewaswhatamountedtoanunofficialtrucewiththeIslamicStateunderwhichAnkaraturnedablindeyetoIslamicStateactivitiesinTurkeyaslongasthemilitantsstayedquietwithinitsborders.TurkeyalsorefusedtohostanysubstantialU.S.ledcoalitionairpower.ThelackofaccesstoTurkishairspace,combinedwithAnkara'shandsoffpolicytowardtheIslamicState,conflicteddirectlywiththeprimaryU.S.missionofdegrading,ifnotdestroying,theIslamicStateastheperceivedmainthreatintheregion.

AnalysisAfterseveralrecenthighlevelpoliticalandmilitarymeetingsbetweenTurkeyandtheUnitedStates,thetwocountriesappeartohavesettledtheirdifferences.Inrecentweeks,Turkeyhasmovedconsiderableforcessouth,closingoffthefinalsectionsofitsborderadjacenttoIslamicStatepositionsinSyria.Inaddition,AnkarafinallyopenedIncirlikairbaseandpossiblyotherairbasesforprimaryoremergencyusetoU.S.ledcoalitionaircraft.Moreover,TurkeybegancarryingoutitsownairstrikesagainstselectIslamicStatepositionsinSyria.

Aswellassealingtheborder,internalsecurityforcesbeganrollingupIslamicStatenetworks(andKurdistanWorkers'Partymilitants)inTurkey.ThetimingoftheseactionssuggeststhatAnkaraisexpectingabacklashfromthejihadists.OnceTurkeydecidedthatactivelycombatingtheIslamicStatewasinitsbestinterests,itwastednotimetoact.BynegotiatingadealwithWashingtonthatinvolvesworkingproactivelyagainsttheIslamicState,Ankarawillhavetoaccepttheconsequences.ThatanticipatedbacklashmanifestedinarecentcarbombattacknotfarfromKobaniandaborderclashbetweentheTurkishmilitaryandtheIslamicState.Butsofar,theretaliationhasbeenrelativelylimited.

7/31/2015 AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

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The Impact in Syria

ThoughexactdetailsofAnkara'sdealwithWashingtonarestillemerging,thereisnodoubtthatincreasedTurkishinvolvementwillhaveasignificanteffectonthewarinSyria.

Firstandforemost,theTurkishmilitarymovingtosecurethebordersectionsabuttingIslamicStatepositionsinSyriashouldseriouslydegradeavitallogisticallinefortheIslamicState.Thejihadistgrouphasconsistentlybeenembroiledinfightingalongtheentireperipheryoftheterritoryitcarvedoutlastyear.ThisuncompromisingstrategyallowedtheIslamicStatetoexpandaggressively,butthejihadistshavestagnatedoverallandarenowonthedefensiveinmanyareas.DefendingprovedtobeanunexpecteddrainonIslamicStateresources,atatimewhentheyarealreadytakingheavylosses.

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AlthoughtheIslamicStatewasabletogainmuchduringitsrapidexpansion,includingcapturedmilitarymateriel,thegroupalsoreliedheavilyonextendedsupplylines.TheselinesallowedtheIslamicStatetoexchangecapturedresourcessuchasoilandhistoricartifactsforweaponsandequipmentaswellasmoneytopayitsfighters.ThesupplylinesalsokeptasteadystreamofforeignfighterscomingintoreplenishtheIslamicState'sranks,whichallowedittosustainahighattritionrate.CuttingoffthesupplylinethroughTurkeywillhittheIslamicStatehardonallfronts,especiallyastheeffectsofthecutoffaccumulateovertime.

TheopeningofTurkishairbasesmakestheaircampaignagainstIslamicStatepositionsinSyriamassivelymoreefficient.ThepreviousdistancesinvolvedforU.S.ledcoalitionaircraftfromvariouslocationsinthelowerArabianPeninsulaensuredmidairrefuelingandlongerflighttimes.GreatlyreducingthedistancefromtakeofftotargetsinnorthernSyriagivesthecoalitionmoreoptions.Theseincludevaryingweaponspayloads,sortierates,thenumberofaircraftthatcanbeonstationand,mostimportant,persistenceoverenemyterritorythatwillimproveresponsiveness,intelligenceandsituationalawareness.Inshort,theaircampaignwillbecomeeasiertoconductinthisregionandcanbegreatlyexpandedifneeded.But,itwillnotbecomemoreeffectiveunlessthecoalitionincreasessurveillancecoverageandtrainedaircontrollersontheground.

TheincreasedthreattoIslamicStateterritoryinbothSyriaandIraqisnotlostonjihadistcommanders.Muchofthegroup'ssuccessdependedonthequickmovementofforcesandmaterielbetweentheaters.Thefracturingofsupplylinesdegradesthiscapabilityovertime.Anditwillonlygetworse.Theaircampaign'sgreaterreachintonorthernSyriawillinevitablydegradeIslamicStateforcesoverall,pinningsomeelementsinplace.Improvedloitertimealsomeanslesssanctuaryforhighvaluetargetshuntedbyincreasinglyeffectiveairassets.Inturn,theseeffectsarelikelytoimpacttheIslamicState'scommandandcontrol.

Turkey'spolicychangetowardtheIslamicStatesolvestwoproblemsatonce.Turkey'sprimaryfocuswasonremovingthealAssadgovernmentinSyriaandavoidingafullscalefightwiththeIslamicState.ThiskeptdomesticsecurityrelativelystableearlyonintheSyrianconflict.ButtheIslamicState'sexpansiveterritorialgrowthandaggressivenesstowardotherrebels(includingmanyTurkishbackedgroups)eventuallybecameintolerableforAnkara.TakingmilitaryactionagainsttheIslamicStateshouldeventuallybringreliefforthenorthernSyrianrebelsfightingboththeIslamicStateandSyriangovernmentforces.ThisbringsU.S.andTurkishinterestsintoalignment,andAnkaralikelyhopesthatthedegradationoftheIslamicStatewillleadtoacoherentrebelforcethatcanfocussolelyonSyriangovernmentforces.ThecostofAnkara'spolicychange,however,isthattheIslamicStatewillstrikeback.SomeattacksonTurkishsoilhavesucceeded,butinternalsecurityforcesareworkinghardtomitigatetheireffectiveness,andTurkeyhastheforcestructureandexperiencetohandleinternalmilitancy.

Quid Pro Quo

Aswithanydeal,thereisreciprocation.TurkeyhasgiventheUnitedStateswhatitwantstofighttheIslamicState,butWashingtonhasmadeconcessionsofitsown.TheselikelyinvolvegreatersupportforTurkishsponsoredrebelfactionsinnorthernSyria.Theissueofreciprocityraisesaseriesofquestionsaboutwhatotherchangesmightoccurintheongoingfight.

RumorsemergedrecentlythatTurkeycouldsendinafullscalemilitaryforcetocreateabufferzonethatwoulddisplacetheIslamicState(oranySyrianregimeforces)andserveasasafespacefromwhichrebelfactionscouldprojectpower.Technically,theactionsTurkeyhasalreadytakencouldaccomplishthisinalongertimeframe,butsuccessisnotassuredandTurkey'spatienceisbeingtested.ThemainquestionwouldbehowTurkey'sdomesticpopulationwouldreceivetheestablishmentofabufferzone.Turkeyisverypoliticallydivided,andanyovertTurkishmilitarymovescouldconceivablyoverlapwithAnkara'sKurdish

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conundrum.TurkeyisfrustratedbytheamountofpositivepresstheKurdsreceivedastheonlytrustworthyoreffectiveforcefightingtheIslamicState.

TheTurkishmilitaryhasalreadymovedtheappropriateforcestructureintoplacetoestablishabufferzone.AlikelyindicatorthatTurkeyisestablishingthesafeareawouldbeasignificantincreaseinaerialandartillerybombardmentofIslamicStatepositionsabuttingtheTurkishborder,thoughsuchactionmightnotbenecessary.Turkeyhasavarietyoflevelsofinvolvementtochoosefrominpursuitofabufferzone,fromnoflyzonestothemanipulationofrebelforcesusingthetalentsofembeddedspecialoperationsforces.TurkishdailyHurriyetreportedJuly24,citinganonymoussources,thatapartialnoflyzoneovertheTurkishSyrianborderwouldbepartofthebroaderU.S.Turkishunderstanding.Thevolumeandlocationofairstrikesshouldbecarefullymonitoredandreportsofforcesembeddedwithrebelsshouldbecloselywatched.

AchangeinU.S.policytowardsupportfornorthernSyrianrebelsshouldalsobelookedfor.Currently,theUnitedStatesisstrikingonlytheIslamicStateinSyria,andthetrainandequipmissionitispursuingtocreatetheNewSyrianForceisintendedtofocusonthefightagainsttheIslamicState.Potentially,Washingtoncouldsoftenitsrestrictionsonthissupport.ThefirstfewtroopsfortheNewSyrianForceenteredSyriarecently.NewlyarrivedU.S.coalitionairpowercouldbeanexcellentforcemultiplierforanygroundtroopsinthevicinity.AnysignthatsuchairpowerortheU.S.trainedNewSyrianForceisbeingwovenintoTurkishbackedrebelscouldpointtoaU.S.policyshift.Additionally,U.S.airpower,especiallythroughoperationsoutofIncirlik,couldfacilitateanyofthebufferzoneoptionsthatTurkeyiscontemplating.

Inthelongerterm,Turkey'snewpoliciescouldleadtorealmilitarysuccessnotonlyagainsttheIslamicStatebutalsoagainsttheSyriangovernment.Thisraisesthequestionofwhetherrebelpoliticalcoherenceandstructurewillaccompanymilitarycoherenceandsuccess.Adominantandsomewhatcoherentrebelfactionthatcanassumeresponsibilitygivenapoliticalresolutiontotheconflictissomethingimportanttolookforincontext.

ForthealAssadgovernment,Turkey'sshiftshouldbealarming.AlthoughAnkaraisexpandingitsfocustoincludetheIslamicState,thischangewillhelptheotherSyrianrebelfactions,andeventuallyallpathsleadbacktoDamascus.TheUnitedStates,ontheotherhand,willtrytousetheaddedmilitarypressureontheSyriangovernmenttopushforanegotiatedsettlement.Withthemomentumbehindtherebelsandtheirsponsors,however,U.S.andRussianeffortstofashionsuchanagreementwillbehighlyconflicted.ThisistheriskthattheUnitedStatesiswillingtotakeinordertoclampdownontheIslamicState.

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