analytics for smarter defence

© 2009 IBM Corporation

Intelligence Analysis for Smarter DefenceLesson’s Learned from 1,512 Days in Iraq and Afghanistan

Michael McCracken, Major, USAFR and Military Intelligence Strategy Leader, IBM

10 October 2012

© 2009 IBM Corporation

To help intelligence drive operations, build a bigger box.

41,512 days

422,680 hours410 unforgettable missions

© 2009 IBM Corporation

Organize information the way you want it to be found(Visually, Verbally, or Numerically)

• Atlas

• Maps

• Latitude and LongitudeL

A

T

C

H

by Location

by Alphabet

by Time

by Category

by Hierarchy

• Dictionary

• Maps

• Latitude and Longitude

• Historical timeline

• Time Magazine

• History Novel

• Encyclopedia

• Department Store

• Yahoo Search Engine

• Largest to Smallest

• Darkest to Lightest

• Densest to Least Dense

© 2009 IBM Corporation

August 2006 – February 2007

MNF-I CJ2X Detainee Operations, Bagdad, IraqOfficer-In-Charge, Combined Review and Release Board (Capt, USAFR)

• Vetting Detainees Scheduled for Release

• Determine AQ-IZ

• Coordinate with TF-134 CG

• Mission 3x with NO additional resources

• Rising Political Pressures

• High Intelligence Analysts Turnover

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Controlled Vetting Process

• Shop Standards

• Performance-based Metrics

© 2009 IBM Corporation

June 2008 – August 2008

MNC-I Counter-Improvised Explosive Devices Cell, IraqExplosively Formed Projectile Intelligence Analyst (US DoD Contractor)

• Analyze C-IED Tactics, Techniques and Procedures

• Analyze EFP Tactics, Techniques and Procedures

• Develop link analysis of IED cells in MNF-Ds

• Analysis miss-aligned with analysis areas of focus

• Duplicative efforts of MNF-I Intel Teams

• Lack of cohesive intelligence strategy

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• C-IED Cell disbanded / realigned with area teams

• MNC-I / MNF-I combined

• Comprehensive C-IED efforts imbedded across AO

© 2009 IBM Corporation

August 2008 – March 2009

MNSTC-I Intelligence Transition Team, Green Zone, IraqInformation Technology / Intelligence Analyst (US DoD Contractor)

• Branch of MNF-I

• Develop, Organize, Train and Equip MoD/MoI

• Build sustainable intelligence model for IZ forces

• IZ forces lacked basic technical / intelligence skills

• IZ skeptical of western assistance

• Rapid build-up of capabilities pushed by CF

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Progress requires host-nation buy-in

• Fundamental education required to build forces

• Sustainable capabilities require financial foundation

© 2009 IBM Corporation

March 2009 – February 2010

NTM-A RC-North Coordination Center, Mazar-e Sharif, AFIntelligence Mentor to RC-North Coordination Center for ANA/ANP/NDS (US DoD Contractor)

• Branch of ISAF-A

• Develop, Organize, Train and Equip MoD/MoI

• Build basic intelligence skills of 209th Corp

• ANA/ANP lacked skills / desire to learn

• AF Forces have weak vetting process

• Challenged by basic intelligence skill sets

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• ISAF/USFOR-A unable to measure results

• DoD/DoS difficulty developing training program

• Security efforts continue to plague training mission

© 2009 IBM Corporation

March 2010 – June 2010

Biometric Enabled Intelligence, Kandahar (RC-S), AFBEI Intelligence Analyst for 2 SCR Brigade HQ/FOBs in RC-S (US DoD Contractor)

• Easiest method to establish positive identification

• Develop comprehensive biometric program

• Build base of biometrically enrolled AF citizens

• Lack of priority and conflicting mission requirements

• ANA/ANP contamination of IED Explosions / F&C

• Slow reach-back support and low bandwidth

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Improved training and leadership buy-in

• Stronger education / combined C-IED efforts

• Enemy tactics discovered and exploited across AO

© 2009 IBM Corporation

July 2010 – February 2012

Deputy Chief of Staff, Intelligence ISAF HQ, Kabul, AFIntelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Analyst for US ISR-Task Force (US DoD Contractor)

• Support COMISAF on all Intelligence matters

• Develop comprehensive ISR mission

• Train and equip ISAF-A/USFOR-A on all intel

• Personality lead efforts / Fix Intelligence

• Intelligence Assessments / Tactical Employment

• Intelligence Fusion or Hidden Agendas

1

2

Mission

Problem

3 Lesson• Right person for the right job

• Aerostats / Continue to ISR Surge / Build capes

• Be careful what you ask for (and get)

© 2009 IBM Corporation

Intelligence Assessment

External focus(Intelligence Community)

Collaboration

Internal focus(agency)

Interconnected objectives

TrainingDataDiscoverability

© 2009 IBM Corporation