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Migration

OTA TEAM

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Migration Schedule

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Migration – Content

1. Introduction2. Migration Theories3. Basic facts about migration within the

European Union

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Migration - Introduction

The population in most European countries is aging

Main Reason: Sharp decline in the fertility rateAnother Reason: Increase in life expectancy

The aging process goes together with a reduction in the population

Example: Germany would need each year 400.000 immigrants to compensate for the reduction

Birg, H. (2005)

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Migration - Introduction

Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 61

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Migration - Introduction

Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 62

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Migration - Introduction

Source: http://www.sicherheit-heute.de/index.php?cccpage=Migration&set_z_artikel=184

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Migration - Introduction

But is it necessary to compensate for the reduction?

Economic perspective:In Germany 4 million people are jobless

So does the economy need immigrants?It depends if immigrants arePerfect SubsitutesorPerfect Complementsin terms of input factor labour

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Migration - Introduction

Focus: Individual Perspective

Migration comes from Latin: Migrare = Move

Why do people move?(blue)

Why do people stay?(pink)

Brainstorming

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Migration – Introduction –Classification

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 7f.

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Migration - Introduction

Examples of voluntary migration: • Job market-induced migration

(immigrant, seasonal or work contract employees)• Education-based migration • Migration due to family reunion

Examples of obligatory migration: • Natural disasters

(drought, flooding, tsunami, famine, technical disasters...) • Human acts

(civil war, persecution, slavery...)

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 8

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Migration - Introduction

Source: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 20

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Theories of Migration

Economic migration models

1 . Human capital model

2. Model with perfect competition

3. Gravitation model

4. Push-Pull model

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.

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Theories of migration

Human capital model (Intertemporal investment calculation)

Migration understood as an investment in human capital (based on ideas of Sjaastad 1962)

Following factors affect the migration decision:• Qualification/Education

(enriching capacity and possibility to get a good job) • Age (younger people have a higher pay-back period) • Risk preferences

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 27

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Theories of Migration

Migration of highly-qualified people - positive selection

Migration of low-qualified - negative selection

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Theories of Migration

Model with perfect competition Micro economic viewpoint

Based on ideas by Berry and Soligo (1969) as well as Chiswick (1982)

Assumption: Maximizing utilities with respect to the budget restriction which depends on wage level

Migration from a low-wage to a high-wage country as long as equilibrium is reached (same wage in both countries)

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 31

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Theories of Migration

Model with perfect competition

A B

1. Wage(B) > Wage (A):

3. Wage(B) = Wage (A)

2. Wage(B) and Wage(A)

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Theories of Migration

Remarks Wage differentials alone are not able to explain migration,

otherwise migration would be higher.

Limited model in particular due to the assumptions:

• Rational behavior (i.e. Perfect information about jobs and remuneration )

• Homogeneous work (same marginal productivity = same technology in both countries)

• Full employment

• No uncertainty

• No migration costs

• No migration barriers (e.g. work permits, recognition of qualifications, cultural and linguistic barriers)

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.

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Theories of Migration

Variation of assumptionsBased on Harris/Todaro (1970)

Target: Explain rural-urban migration

+ Probability to find a new job in the target area expected wage level

+ Migration costs + No homogeneity of workers [i.e. domestic and immigrant workers are not perfect substitutes]

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p.25f.

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Theories of Migration

Gravitation Model Based on ideas of Ravenstein (1885)

Model follows the law of gravity (1666) of I. Newton i.e. gravitation strength depends on mass and distance

Size of the population in the origin and target region and distance!

Networks play an important role ("friends and relatives effect")

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 29

de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton

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Theories of Migration

Push-Pull model Based on ideas of Lee 1966

Starting point: the gravitation model Four factors:

1. Factors regarding the origin area (Push)

2. Factors regarding the target area (Pull)

Examples from Lee: Climate and educational system 3. Intermediate obstacles (distance, immigration laws)

[Distance my be subjective or objective]

4. Individual factors (age, family status, network, qualification)

Only in theory do people have perfect information. In reality the individual perception is more important.

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31

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Theories of Migration

Economic and political mismatches :• Rising economy – stagnating economy• Functioning job markets - unemployment • Higher wage level - lower wage level • Democratic system - ethnic or religious oppression • High - low level of the social insurance systems • High – low development of the infrastructure • High – low quality of the environmentAnother important pull-factor:• Cultural affinity (language, history, cultural development...)

Source: : Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; p.15 and Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31

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Theories of Migration

Source: www.chkorte.de/ mexiko/pushpull.gif

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Theories of Migration

So why don't many move?Migration/transaction costs, such as• moving expenses, • information costs, • costs of learning a new language…Home location-specific, not-transferable knowledge (sunk costs), such

as• standards• values• manners • local authorities• informal channels • consumer and leisure facilities• income possibilitiesSource: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 3

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Migration within the EU

Future prospects: The economic and social differences within the European Union will

decrease Migration flows within the European Union states shrink

Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.15

Crucial factor for European migration today: Existing legislation and migration policy decisions

Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.20

Within the EU, people have the basic right of free movement of labour Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 2

However ....

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Migration within the EU

Transitional arrangements set out in the Accession Treaty:

Limited free movement during a transitional period in the extended European Union for a maximum duration of 7 years

(exception: Malta and Cyprus)

Transitional period: "2 plus 3 plus 2" (phase 1 ends on 30 April 2006)

Sweden, Ireland and UK of the European Union 15 do not take part

Before the end of phases 1+2 the Commission has to write a report

The member states (EU 15) themselves have to notify their intentions for the next phase to the Commission in advance

Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, 08.02.2006

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Migration within the EU

Some results of the report:

1. There seems to be no link between transitional arrangements and extent of migration

2. Flow of workers has been rather small

3. And too small to affect the European Union job market as a whole

(Before and after the extension the share of the EU10 citizens of the resident population of each individual EU15 member state remains relatively stable)

4. There is no indication that domestic labor is being substituted by the limited inflow of workers from the EU10

5. Migration after the extension has had a positive effect on the national economies of the EU15-member statesSource: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European

Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, 08.02.2006

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Outlook

Quelle: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 25

Approximately 75% of all Turks in Western Europe live in Germany

What will the future of Turkish migration be like?

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ReferencesBirg, H. (2005): Die ausgefallene Generation – Was die Demographie über unsere

Zukunft sagt Communication from the commission to the council, the parliament, the european

economic and social committee and the committee of the regions (2006): Report on the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements set out in the 2003 Accession Treaty (period 1 May 2004-30 April 2006)

Goldberg, A., Halm, D., Sen, F. (2004): Die deutschen TürkenGlobal Commission on International Migration (Hrsg.), (2006), Migration in einer

interdependenten Welt: Neue Handlungsprinzipien: Bericht der Weltkommission für internationale Migration

Münz, R., Seifert, W., Ulrich, R. (1997): Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Strukturen, Wirkungen, Perspektiven

Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005): Auswirkungen der internationalen Migration auf die Bundesrepublik Deutschland – Theoretische und empirische Analysen vor dem Hintergrund der EU-Osterweiterung

Sachverständigenrat für Zuwanderung und Integration im Auftragder Bundesregierung in Zusammenarbeit mit dem europäischen forum für Migrationsstudien (efms) an der Universität Bamberg (2004): Migrationsbericht

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Organizational Details

Group 1: FranceGroup 2: Spain and TurkeyGroup 3: Press and CzechGroup 4: UK