“climate change and water in southeast asia€¦ · vietnam, and concluded that the region,...

Regional Workshop on Climate Change and Food Security in ASEAN+3 Countries, Beijing, China, 29-31 March 2011

“Climate Change and Water in Southeast Asia"

Salmah Zakaria Energy Security and Water Resources Section Environment Development Division UN ESCAP, Bangkok

Key Messages The region faces multiple water challenges:

Climate Changes exacerbate these challenges, particularly as more than 90% of climate change impacts are on water related sub-sectors

70 to 90% of water resources in SEA (except for Singapore and Brunei) are use for agriculture: rapid urbanization is changing this equation

In a world with limiting natural resources, a paradigm change in national development approach that will ensure continued sustainable development is required

Water Challenges in Asia Pacific

Multiple Challenges in water sector Governance

Increasing water scarcity threat, High water utilization, Deteriorating water quality, Poor access to drinking water, Poor access to sanitation, Ecosystem deterioration etc

Location and Climate Flood-prone areas, Cyclone-prone areas, Drought-

prone areas, / Climate change risk, ESCAP Water Hotspots Map 2010

With Climate Changes All challenges will be exacerbated

UN Population Division Estimates http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/indicator_detail.cfm?IndicatorID=30&Country=MY

World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision UNDESA Population Division File 2: Percentage of Population Residing in Urban Areas by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050

Green Growth – Sustainable development

De Boer - National Geographic News, Published November 26, 2010

the green growth stimulus packages of China and Korea, clearest signal of what is to come

Water-food-energy nexus in Asia Arjun Thapan, Special Senior Advisor (Infrastructure and Water) for the Asian Development Bank. ManilaJakarta Post: Thu, 10/07/2010 10:35 AM | Opinion

About 80 percent of accessible freshwater in Asia is used for agriculture; the rest is drawn by energy, industry, and domestic use

Water for bio-fuels is beginning to compete with water for agriculture

self-evident relationship between water, food, and energy corners of a triangle with politics and emotion at its

center - Tony Allan, a Stockholm Water Prize laureate the correlation is apparent, real, and increasingly

complex to manage an early warning system, to act now for sustaining Asia’s

water future Efficiency gains in water use will be the new paradigm

Human Development Index and Domestic Material Consumption per capita, 1995 and 2005

Outline of presentations

Impact of Climate Change on Water Identifying vulnerability Moving forward

Impact of Climate Change on Water

Bubbles of GHGs emissions per capita in 2006

10 Major Impacts of Climate Change

1: Destruction of Ecosystems 2: Loss of Biodiversity 3: Conflicts and War 4: Economic Consequences 5: Disease 6: Drought 7: Storms and Floods 8: Heat Waves 9: Shrinking Glaciers 10: Rising Sea Level

Climate Change Became significant with more significant

release of GHGS from energy used, deforestation, production of biomass, agro-industrial products, etc Start ?? - Industrial revolution of 18th Century

Mostly in the North Followed now – lifestyle change, including urbanisation

Everywhere: The South brings with it huge population, while seemingly following similar development foot-paths

Impact from Climate Change affect all particularly the most vulnerable and least resilience

majority of which are in the developing world

Hot Spots of AP future impacts and Vulnerabilities- AR4 IPCC

How Climate Change Impact Water

Direct Impact affecting the water cycle due to changes to

precipitation and evaporation cycle, pattern Indirect Impact

Migration: people moved In search of food – arid areas In search of safer place – floods, sea level rise

Changing patterns of consumption Food product and life style changes

Significance of Climate change to water systems Significant change in quantity of flow, will

affect Design sizing of infrastructure; culverts, bridges, canals,

dams, etc Existing operations and maintenance: water related systems -

floods, water supply, irrigation etc Shifting rainfall patterns, between 1-2 weeks

Affect planting season; harvesting should not meet floods! Droughts need to be avoided Affect reservoir fillings, draw-downs, operations &

maintenance Other general operations and maintenance of water

infrastructure and systems Extreme and recurring floods and droughts

Health implication Social and economic activities

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

CGCM3.1(T47)CSIRO-Mk3.5

INM-CM3.0PCM

CNRM-CM3MRI-CGCM2.3.2

GISS-AOMECHO-G

ECHAM5/MPI-OMCSIRO-Mk3.0GFDL-CM2.1

MIROC3.2(medres)CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T63)GFDL-CM2.0

MIROC3.2(hires)IPSL-CM4

Araki & Koike, 2008

Average=1.2 (from 17 models)

Ratio of Daily 10year Probable Rainfall between now and 50 years later (according to A1B scenario), from 17 models

Discharge (m^3/s)

Current Design Rainfall

Future Design Rainfall under

Climate Change

Design Hydrograph Design Rainfall

Hydrological Model

Current Climate

Climate Change

Araki & Koike, 2008

Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia (ECC_SEA) ADB, April 2009

Focus on Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, and concluded that the region, vis-à-vis CC is Highly vulnerable Among the regions with the greatest need for

adaptation – critical to reduce the impact Has great mitigation potential

Analysis using climate change and economic modeling were drawn for Water resources, agriculture, forestry, coastal and

marine sectors and health sectors Provided further analysis on adaptation and

mitigation options and policy responses

ECC-SEA on water resources ADB, April 2009

Under the A1F1 scenario pptn is projected to Decrease in the 1st half of the century but Increase by the end of the century With strong variation, between March and May

CC Projection on Malaysia by NAHRIM

Used CGCM1 spatial grid resolution at 410 km grid: IPCC recommended projection at scale to below 10 km grid for regional and watershed using detail to Provide identification of more profound details

Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) downscale from CGCM1 current and future

climate data, at resolution (410km), to spatial resolution (9km) for Peninsular Malaysia.

Sub-region Name West Coast Klang

Selan-gor

Teren- ggau

Kela-ntan Pahang Perak Kedah Johor

Maximum Monthly Precip (mm)

Historical 600.0 436.2 564.1 1271.2 929.7 633.6 722.9 626.7 591.7

Future 560.3 601.3 525.7 1913.9 1128.5 684.6 767.8 705.3 538.2

Diff. -39.7 165.1 -38.4 +642.7 +198.8 +51.0 +44.9 +78.3 -53.5

(%) -6.6 +37.8 -6.8 +50.6 +21.4 +8.0 +6.21 +12.5 -9.0

Mean Monthly Precip (mm)

Historical 179.2 190.1 190.2 289.0 221.8 198.5 192.9 173.6 187.3

Future 176.2 182.3 180.9 299.0 239.5 208.4 199.4 176.6 180.0

Diff. -3.0 -7.8 -9.3 +10.0 +17.7 +9.9 +6.5 +3.0 -7.3

(%) -1.7 -4.1 +4.9 +3.5 +7.9 +4.9 +3.4 +1.7 -3.9

Minimum Monthly Precip (mm)

Historical 12.4 12.8 12.2 33.6 15.4 24.5 9.0 2.1 13.3

Future 7.9 5.9 8.3 14.0 10.9 16.6 4.1 1.1 5.2

Diff. -4.5 -6.9 -3.9 -19.6 -4.5 -7.9 -4.9 -1.0 -8.1

(%) -36.3 -53.9 -32 -58.3 -29.2 -32.2 -54.4 -50 -60.9

Summary of Monthly Precipitation

More extreme hydrological conditions may be expected

More floods anticipated: An increase up to 51% in maximum monthly rainfall over the North East Coastal region

More droughts/dry years from modeling output: 2028, 2029, 2034, 2042 and 2044

A decrease in minimum monthly rainfall over central and south Selangor (-32%) & Johor (-61% )

Future Rainfall

Summary of Monthly Flows

River Klang Selangor Dungun Kelan-

tan Pahang Perak Muda Johor

Maximum Monthly Flows (cms)

Historical 31.2 107.9 398.4 1535.1 1697.4 523.7 307.4 82.7

Future 45.8 108.5 569.5 1950.7 2176.6 578.2 340.0 94.0

Diff. +14.6 +0.6 +171.1 +415.6 +479.2 +54.5 +32.6 +11.3

(%) +46.8 +0.6 +42.9 +27.1 +28.2 +10.4 +10.6 +13.7

Mean Monthly Flows (cms)

Historical 14.4 40.7 93.4 535.9 669.6 286.4 105.6 32.7

Future 13.3 37.5 98.3 601.7 718.1 299.7 104.0 31.8

Diff. -1.1 -3.2 +4.9 +65.8 +48.5 +13.3 -1.6 -0.9

(%) -7.6 -7.9 +5.2 +12.3 +7.2 +4.6 -1.5 -2.8

Minimum Monthly Flows (cms)

Historical 2.6 7.1 13.1 158.4 156.3 183.6 25.3 9.8

Future 3.5 0.5 10.8 125.8 122.7 139.2 5.3 6.8

Diff. +0.9 -6.6 -2.3 -32.6 -33.6 -44.4 -20 -3

(%) +34.6 -93.0 -17.6 -20.6 -21.5 -24.2 -79.1 -30.6

Future River Flow

Future monthly flows - the maximum monthly flows will be significantly higher (+11% to +43%) for Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang and the minimum monthly flows significantly lower (-31% to -93%) for Selangor and Johor

An increase in inter-annual and intra-seasonal

variability with increased hydrologic extremes (higher high flows, and lower low flows) in Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu and Kedah watersheds

Expect more severe floods and droughts

Regional Workshop on Climate Change and Food Security in ASEAN+3 Countries, Beijing, China, 29-31 March 2011 34

Simulated Monthly River Flow Periodic Means and Standard Deviations

Summary of Monthly Air Temperature

Subregion Name West Coast Klang Selangor Teren- gganu

Kelan- tan Pahang

Maximum Monthly Air Temp (deg C)

Historical 28.9 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.0 28.3

Future 30.7 29.7 29.5 29.9 29.6 29.9

Increase 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6

% Increase 6.2% 7.2% 6.5% 6.0% 5.7% 5.7%

Mean Monthly Air Temp (deg C)

Historical 27.3 26.5 26.4 25.5 25.3 26.1

Future 28.6 27.9 27.8 26.8 26.5 27.4

Increase 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3

% Increase 4.7% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 4.7% 5.0%

Minimum Monthly Air Temp (deg C)

Historical 24.9 24.8 24.7 21.9 21.0 22.8

Future 26.2 25.5 25.4 23.1 22.4 24.1

Increase 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3

% Increase 5.2% 2.8% 2.8% 5.5% 6.7% 5.7%

Identifying vulnerability

Focus on water

State of Water Resources Management (SWRM) in ASEAN, October 2005

The study provided Analysis on the statistics and information on water

quantity & quality in terms of future significance for future water resources policy development, strategic planning and management

Analysis of the potential impact of extreme events on water resources and the environment

An overview of key governance and capacity building issues to water resources management

A compendium of hydrological statistics for ASEAN Member countries

These are generally overviews, provided by member countries

Provided list of adaptation strategies for Climate Change by member countries in Appendix 2

SWRM in ASEAN, October 2005 – On major challenges Shift in climatic patterns

Sensitized that climate could intensify floods and droughts

Consequences of climate extremes Highlighted potential impacts of CC

Control greenhouse gases Sensitized that GHGs are increasingly being

released and stabilizing it will demand a major effort

Improve technological skills and information Responding to these extreme events were

hampered by a host of exclusion factors eg lack of Trained personnel, early warning systems, training and

knowledge and financial capacity

SWRM in ASEAN, October 2005 – On Reducing vulnerability Diagnostic Studies

That included parameters related to vulnerability and risks from extreme events

Telemetry A telemetry system in all countries. Pilot project and best practices in forecasting to be given

by Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

Training & CB on the use of CC Models The need for member countries to develop regional

cooperation and provide exchange of information and sharing of experiences

Study CC potential impacts through better prediction models & the need to use global climate models to build local models

Capacity building (CB) in IWRM Introduced IRBM more vigorously to ensure planning is

done in an integrated manner

SWRM in ASEAN, October 2005 – 10 ASEAN Strategic Plan of Actions on Water Resources Management

1. Demand Management Learning Forums 2. ASEAN IWRM Country Strategy Guidelines 3. River Classification Systems 4. ASEAN Water Data Management and Reporting System Design 5. Risks and Impacts from Extreme Events in ASEAN Member

Countries 6. Knowledge Sharing and Exchange 7. Exchanging Information and Creation Awareness in a Structured

Basis between Peak Bodies 8. Integrated Land Use Planning 9. Increasing Long Term Awareness, Knowledge and Community

Participation in Integrated Water Resource Management 10. Education on Sanitation and Pollution Management

Moving forward

Moving Forward There are much that has been said on appropriate

and agreed strategies Much more are needed to be done & implemented To move forward - policy makers may need to have

a macro overview and understanding of related topics such as The systemic interaction of land and water resources

To move forward with IRBM implementation For agriculture, an overview of the 3 agriculture production factors;

land, soil and crop

Why CC Change projections are needed to indentify CC Vulnerabilities and Risks and to build resilience

of local communities

The Water Cycle

We are surrounded by a continuum of water systems, merging with each other

Systemic interaction of land and water resources

The river Basin Is land and water Catchment/watershed of the rainfall that forms

the river flowing through Connected – any changes within the basin, may

impact the rest Upstream activities will affect downstream areas;

and visi-versa Same water source for all economic activities

planned; need to think water reallocation The river is the same water channel that provide

sustenance and where waste water is drained into

Systemic interaction of land and water resources

The river Basin Is land and water Catchment/watershed of the rainfall that forms

the river flowing through Connected – any changes within the basin, may

impact the rest Upstream activities will affect downstream areas;

and visi-versa Same water source for all economic activities

planned; need to think water reallocation The river is the same water channel that provide

sustenance and where waste water is drained into

The River Basin

From Carlos Tucci

Singapore river basins Singapore Island approx 800 km sq

Putrajaya

Putrajaya Catchment, Sg Chuau Catchment, is a tributary of Langat River System

From: Perbadanan Putrajaya

River Basin - A geographical physical unit

Sungai Kelang River Basin

Local Authorities: 8 Area, A: 1425 km2 Ave Rainfall, R: 2500 mm 50% of total Runoff: 50% A x R

Damansara River Sub-Catchments

Klang River Basin, Malaysia

EDD ESCAP Watershed projects

Piloting small water shed management projects River Sering, Brantas River, Indonesia

Public, Private and Community initiatives Use local materials – stones, bamboos, wood, etc –

wherever possible Train community to install and maintain To be replicated in other sub-basins

Kumbung river, DPRK Training of officers in Bangkok Demonstration project in Kumbung river

Brantas river Basin

Sereng River – tributary of Kanto River

ESCAP/Jasa Tirta1 Sereng River Basin Community Watershed Project

Identifying vulnerabilities

Better identification are required and this can be through CC projections

CC projections On a shared regional basis Current model projections may not be sufficient

to provide required confidence level If each member country provide for one modeling

initiative, then there will be at least 10 models The cost of modeling is so much cheaper if

compared to the cost of impacts and the rehabilitation required

1. 1st domain is longitudes span from East 91o-114o and its latitudes span from 5o S to 15o N.

2. 1st domain has 23 x 24 grids and a grid resolution of 81 km, which covers a region of 1863 km x 1944 km

3. RegHCM-PM is nested into the First Generation Coupled General Circulation Model of the Canadian GCM (CGCM1)

4. CGCM1 provides the initial fields and boundary conditions to the RegHCM-PM, and then the CGCM1 simulation results are downscaled to the region of Peninsular Malaysia through several nesting procedures.

Model Schematization Nesting 1st Domains

1. The grid layout for the 1st domain of the RegHCM-PM under Mercator projection. GTOPO30 DEM of the region is overlaid on the outer domain grids.

2. Regional Hydroclimate model (RegHCM) of Peninsular Malaysia was run first with its initial and boundary conditions provided from CGCM1 global historical atmospheric simulation data at 1st domain, covering the whole Peninsular Malaysia region and the surrounding areas

Model Schematization Nesting 1st Domains

1. The 2nd domain with 34 x 37 grids and a grid resolution of 27 km, which covers a region of 918 km x 999 km, is nested within the center of the 1st domain.

2. The inner domain (the 3rd domain) is nested within the center of the 2nd domain & has 64 x 76 grids at a grid resolution of 9 km, and covers a region of 576 km x 684 km.

3. The 3rd domain is the inner domain of the updated RegHCM-PM, which encompasses the entire Peninsular Malaysia and covers a part of Thailand in the north, Singapore in the south, and a part of Indonesia in the southeast.

Model Schematization Nesting 2nd and 3rd Domains

N 6.2833°

E 101.1667° E 100.3333°

N 5.2500°

Case Study – Sg. Muda Basin, Kedah (IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD MITIGATION

INFRASTRUCTURES)

Moving On for Agriculture

Immediately Optimise water that will be available for agriculture, in an

urbanised world (going from 70-30 to 30-70) through field water management with respect to the plant

physiology Well planned and implemented, it will not only improved the

environment but will result in high yields

Medium term Look/research for adaptive crop varieties that do not

consume too much water and can withstand increasing temperature

In the long term Migrate from the current economy to a low carbon economy,

even for agriculture Identify options and green growth migration path

Germination, growth and development of the rice plant

THANK YOU

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