appendix c: community and municipal greenhouse gas...

S A N B E R N A R D I N O C O U N T Y W I D E P L A N D R A F T P E I R C O U N T Y O F S A N B E R N A R D I N O

Appendices

June 2019

Appendix C: Community and Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory

S A N B E R N A R D I N O C O U N T Y W I D E P L A N D R A F T P E I R C O U N T Y O F S A N B E R N A R D I N O

Appendices

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SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY COMMUNITY AND MUNICIPAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY

P R E P A R E D F O R :

CountyofSanBernardino385N.ArrowheadAvenueSanBernardino,CA92415888.818.8988PlaceWorks3MacArthurPlace,Suite1100SantaAna,CA92707Contact:ColinDrukker714.966.9220

P R E P A R E D B Y :

ICFSanFrancisco,CAContact:CoryMatsuiandRichWalter415.677.7100

October2017

ICF.2017.SanBernardinoCountyCommunityandMunicipalGreenhouseGasInventory.Draft.October.(ICF#00580.15.)SanFrancisco,CA.PreparedfortheCountyofSanBernardinoandPlaceWorks,SantaAna,CA.

San Bernardino County Community and Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory i October 2017

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Contents

List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... ii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ..................................................................................................... iiii

Chapter 1 Introduction and Background Information ........................................................................ 1-11.1 Objectives of this Report ................................................................................................. 1-11.2 Greenhouse Gas Inventory Definitions ............................................................................ 1-11.3 Community and Municipal—Overlap and Differences .................................................... 1-41.4 Contents of the GHG Inventory Report ........................................................................... 1-51.5 Overview of San Bernardino County ................................................................................ 1-51.6 Background on Climate Change and GHG Emissions ....................................................... 1-6

Chapter 2 Updated Greenhouse Gas Inventories ............................................................................... 2-12.1 Community Inventory ...................................................................................................... 2-1

Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 2-12.2 Municipal Inventory ......................................................................................................... 2-5

Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 2-5

Chapter 3 Key Greenhouse Gas Inventory Trends .............................................................................. 3-13.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3-13.2 Community GHG Inventory Trends: 2007–2014.............................................................. 3-13.3 Municipal GHG Inventory Trends: Fiscal Years 2006–2015 ............................................. 3-33.4 Sector Trends ................................................................................................................... 3-5

Building Energy ............................................................................................................................. 3-5On-Road Transportation ............................................................................................................... 3-7Off-Road Transportation ............................................................................................................... 3-8Solid Waste/Landfills .................................................................................................................... 3-9Water .......................................................................................................................................... 3-10Wastewater ................................................................................................................................. 3-11Refrigerants ................................................................................................................................. 3-12Agriculture .................................................................................................................................. 3-12Stationary Sources and Cement Production ............................................................................... 3-13Residential Fires and Cooking/Residential Fuel Use ................................................................... 3-14

Chapter 4 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 4-1

Chapter 5 References ........................................................................................................................ 5-1

Appendix A Inventory Methodology Details

County of San Bernardino

Contents

San Bernardino County Community and Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory ii October 2017

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Tables

1-1 Socioeconomic Data for Unincorporated San Bernardino County by Region in 2014 ................. 1-6

1-2 Principal Greenhouse Gas Emissions ............................................................................................ 1-8

2-1 San Bernardino County 2014 Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory ........................................ 2-2

2-2 San Bernardino County Fiscal Year 2015 Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory ......................... 2-5

3-1 Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory Comparison Table (2007–2014) .................................... 3-2

3-2 Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory Comparison Table: Fiscal Years 2006–2015 ..................... 3-4

Figures

1-1 Overlap between Community Emissions and Municipal Emissions ............................................. 1-5

1-2 The Greenhouse Effect ................................................................................................................. 1-7

2-1 San Bernardino County 2014 Community Inventory by Sector .................................................... 2-2

2-2 San Bernardino County 2014 Municipal Inventory by Sector ....................................................... 2-6

3-1 County Community Emissions Trend, 2007–2014 ........................................................................ 3-3

3-2 County Municipal Emissions Trend, Fiscal Years 2006–2015 ....................................................... 3-5

County of San Bernardino

Contents

San Bernardino County Community and Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory iii October 2017

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Acronyms and Abbreviations

AB AssemblyBillARB CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardCEQA CaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityActCFCs chlorofluorocarbonsCH4 methaneCO2 carbondioxideCounty SanBernardinoCountyEMFAC emissionfactordatabaseprogramEPA U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyFY fiscalyearGHG greenhousegasGWP globalwarmingpotentialHCFCs hydrochlorofluorocarbonsHFCs hydrofluorocarbonsICLEI LocalGovernmentsforSustainabilitykWh kilowatthoursLPG liquidpetroleumMMTCO2e millionMTCO2eMTCO2 metrictonsofcarbondioxideN2O nitrousoxideO3 ozonePFCs perfluorocarbonsSANBAG SanBernardinoAssociatedGovernmentsSB SenateBillSBCTA SanBernardinoCountyTransportationAuthoritySCAG SouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernmentsSCAQMD SouthCoastAirQualityManagementDistrictSCE SouthernCaliforniaEdisonSF6 sulfurhexafluorideSP ServicePopulationVMT vehiclemilestraveled DRAFT

San Bernardino County Community and Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1-1 October 2017

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Chapter 1 Introduction and Background

1.1 Objectives of this Report InSeptember2011,SanBernardinoCounty(County)completedaninventoryofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsforcommunityandmunicipaloperations.Inthe2011GHGinventoryreport,theCountyidentifiedagoalofreducingGHGemissionsforbothcommunityandmunicipaloperationsby15%belowcurrentlevelsatthetime,by2020(SanBernardinoCounty2011).Toassesstheprogresstowardreachingthe2020GHGreductiongoalsincethe2011analysis,are‐inventoryofemissionsiscriticalindeterminingtheCounty’semissionstrajectory.Thisanalysisservesasamid‐courseassessmentoftheCounty’sprogresstowardthereductiongoalandcanhelpinformtheCounty’sdecision‐makingprocessesforGHGreductionstrategies.

Theprimarypurposeofthisreportistopresentanupdatedcommunityandmunicipalemissionsinventory.ThisreportisintendedtodemonstratehowtheCounty’sGHGemissionshavechangedfromthepreviousinventoryanalysis(2007andfiscalyear2006)tothecurrentanalysis(2014andfiscalyear[FY]2015),aswellastoprovideinsightonthedriversofthesechangessoastoinformcurrentandfuturepolicyaimedatreducingGHGemissions.

1.2 Greenhouse Gas Inventory Definitions Definitionsofrelevanttermsusedinthisreportareincludedbelow.

AB32.TheCaliforniaGlobalWarmingSolutionsActof2006,widelyknownasAssemblyBill(AB)32,requirestheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard(ARB)todevelopandenforceregulationsforthereportingandverificationofstatewideGHGemissions.TheheartofthebillistherequirementthatstatewideGHGemissionsmustbereducedto1990levelsbytheyear2020oftheAB32ScopingPlan.

AB32ScopingPlan.TheScopingPlanforAB32wasdevelopedbyARBandapprovedinDecember2008.TheScopingPlanhasarangeofGHGreductionactions,whichincludedirectregulations,compliancemechanisms,monetaryandnon‐monetaryincentives,voluntaryactions,andmarket‐basedmechanismssuchasacap‐and‐tradesystem.ARBhasalreadyadoptednumerousregulationsandiscurrentlyconductingadditionalrulemakingforreducingGHGemissionstoachievetheemissionscapby2020.OnMay15,2014,ARBpostedthefirstupdatetotheScopingPlan.ThisupdatebuildsontheinitialScopingPlanwithnewstrategiesandrecommendations,identifiesopportunitiestoleverageexistingandnewfunds,definestheclimatechangeprioritiesofARBforthenext5years,andbuildsafoundationtosupportthelong‐termgoalsidentifiedinExecutiveOrdersS‐3‐05andB‐16‐2012.Theupdatealsopresentsthestate’sprogresstowardmeetingthe2020GHGemissionreductiongoalsdefinedintheinitialscopingplan.TheAB32ScopingPlanprovidesaroadmapforachievingthesereductionsandrecommendsacomplementaryreductiongoalforlocalgovernmentsof15%belowcurrentemissionslevels(2008),whichisroughlyequivalentto1990emissionlevels.ARBiscurrentlyworkingonthe2030SecondUpdatetotheAB32ScopingPlan,whichwilloutlinepoliciesandactionsforthestate’s2030GHGemissiontarget,as

County of San Bernardino Chapter 1.

Introduction and Background Information

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outlinedunderSB32(discussedbelow).TheSecondUpdatetotheAB32ScopingPlan,the2030DraftScopingPlan,wasreleasedonJanuary20,2017,forpubliccomment.TheDraft2017ScopingPlanUpdatebuildsontheprogramssetinplaceaspartofthepreviousScopingPlanthatwasdraftedtomeetthe2020reductiontargetsperAB32.

AB1383,Short‐LivedClimatePollutants.MethaneEmissions:DairyandLivestock:OrganicWaste:Landfills.AB1383requiresARBtoapproveandimplementaplantoreducemethaneby40%,fluorinatedgases(F‐gases)by40%,andanthropogenicblackcarbonby50%below2013levelsby2030.AB1383establishesspecifictargetsforreducingorganicwasteinlandfills(50%by2020and75%by2025comparedto2014).Thelegislationalsoadoptedregulationstoreducemethaneemissionsfromlivestockmanuremanagementoperationsanddairymanagementoperationsthatwouldtakeeffectin2024.

Baselineyear.Thebaselineyearforanyentityistheyearforwhichemissionsareinventoriedandreported.Forthecommunityandmunicipalinventories,thebaselineyearsforthisreportare2014andFY2015,respectively.

Boundary.AGHGinventoryrepresentsemissionsduetoactivitiesassociatedwithacertainboundary,whichcanbeorganizational,operational,orgeographic.Theseboundariesdeterminewhichemissionsareaccountedforandreportedbytheentity.

CAP/GreenhouseGasReductionPlan.ClimateActionPlan(CAP)isatermcommonlyusedinCaliforniaforaplanningdocumentdesignedtoreduceanentity’sGHGemissionsoveraperiodoftime.SomecommunitiesusedifferenttermssuchasaGreenhouseGasReductionPlan.ThespecificcomponentsofaGHGreductionplanarenotrequiredbylaworarticulatedinCaliforniaGHGlegislation.However,airdistrictsandotheragenciessuchasLocalGovernmentsforSustainability(ICLEI)haveproducedguidanceforwhatshouldbeincludedinaGHGreductionplan.Inaddition,CaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityAct(CEQA)guidelinesadoptedin2010describeelementsrequiredinGHGreductionplansifajurisdictionintendstotierCEQAprojectcomplianceoffajurisdictionalreductionplan.GHGreductionplanstypicallyincludeabaselineGHGinventory,aprojectionofGHGemissionsto2020(orotherfutureyears),aGHGreductiontargetfor2020(orotherfutureyears),GHGreductionstrategiesthattogetherachievethetarget,implementationactions,monitoringrequirements,andadaptivestepstobetakentoensurethejurisdictionmeetsitsidentifiedtarget.

CommunityGHGinventory.AcommunityinventoryincludesGHGemissionsassociatedwiththeactivitiesofthecommunityasawhole,includingresidents,businesses,andthemunicipalgovernmentoperations.1Forexample,acommunityGHGinventoryincludesemissionsduetoenergyusedtopowerandheathomesandbusinesses;fuelusedbyvehiclesthathaveeitheranoriginordestinationwithinthejurisdiction;wastethatisgeneratedbyresidentsandbusinessesinthejurisdictionandsenttolandfills;fueluseatlargestationarysourcessuchasfactoriesorindustrialfacilities;livestockandfertilizeruse;fuelusebyoff‐roadequipment;andothers.In2011,aGHGemissionsinventorywaspreparedfortheCounty’scommunityoperationsaspartoftheGHGreductionplan.Thisinventorywasreferredtoasanexternalinventory,whichisanothertermforacommunityinventory.

1Municipalgovernmentemissionsareincludedintheregionalcommunityinventorywhentheemissionsoccurwithinthecountyboundaryoverall.Sometimesmunicipalgovernmentemissionsdonotoccurwithinthecommunityboundary.

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Directemissions.DirectemissionsincludedirectreleasesofGHGsthatphysicallyoccurwithintheboundaryandarerelatedtofuelcombustion,processemissionsorfugitiveemissions.Examplesincludethecombustionoffuelbyvehiclesdrivingwithintheboundary,thecombustionofnaturalgasorotherfuelbyindustriesorfacilitieswithintheboundary,orthereleaseofmethanefromlivestockphysicallylocatedwithinajurisdiction.

Emissionfactor.AnemissionfactorisauniquevalueequatingtheamountofGHGsemittedperunitofagivenactivity,forexamplemetrictonsofcarbondioxide(MTCO2)pergallonofgasolineburned.

Emissionsector.AnemissionssectorisacategoryofGHGemissionsreflectingthenatureoftheactivityproducingtheGHGemissions,forexamplebuildingenergyoron‐roadtransportation.GHGemissionsectorsincludedinthisinventoryare:agriculture,buildingenergy,off‐roadtransportation,on‐roadtransportation,highglobalwarmingpotentialgases(refrigerants),wastelandfills,wastegeneration,wastewatertreatment,waterconsumptionandstationarysources.

Greenhousegas.AGHGisanygasthatabsorbsinfraredradiationintheatmosphere.GHGsinclude,butarenotlimitedto,watervapor,carbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4),nitrousoxide(N2O),hydrochlorofluorocarbons(HCFCs),ozone(O3),hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs),andsulfurhexafluoride(SF6).Ofthese,allbutwatervaporandO3areregulatedunderAB32andSB32andaccountedforinthestate’sGHGinventory.

Indirectemissions.IndirectemissionsareindirectreleasesofGHGs.IndirectreleasesareGHGemissionsthatresultfromactivitythatoccurswithintheboundarybutthephysicalreleaseoftheGHGemissionoccursoutsideoftheboundary.Forexample,residentsandbusinessesinthecountyuseelectricitybyturningonlightsorotherelectronicequipment,butthepowerplantwheretheelectricityisgenerated,andwherefuelisburnedtogeneratetheelectricity,maybelocatedfarawayfromthecounty.Electricityuseisconsideredanindirectemissionactivity.

MunicipalGHGinventory.AmunicipalinventoryincludesGHGemissionsassociatedwithacityorcounty’sservicesandmunicipaloperations.Forexample,amunicipalGHGinventoryincludesemissionsduetothefollowing:energyusedbycityorcountybuildingssuchasthecourthouse,cityhallorthejail;fuelusedbythecityorcountyvehiclefleet;wastegeneratedbythecityandcountyemployees;processemissionsassociatedwithtreatingwastewaterifthecityorcountyoperatesaplant;fugitiveemissionsofmethanefromlandfillsifthecityorcountyoperatesalandfill;andfuelusebycityandcountyemployeescommutingtoandfromwork.GHGemissionsassociatedwithacityorcounty’smunicipaloperationsaretypically1to5%ofthecommunity’semissionsasawhole.In2011,aGHGemissionsinventorywaspreparedfortheCounty’smunicipaloperationsaspartoftheGHGreductionplan.Thisinventorywasreferredtoasaninternalinventory,whichisanothertermforamunicipalinventory.

SB32andAB197.SenateBill(SB)32(Pavley)billrequiresARBtoensurethatstatewideGHGemissionsarereducedtoatleast40%belowthe1990levelby2030,consistentwiththetargetsetforthinEOB‐30‐15.AB197createsrequirementstoformtheJointLegislativeCommitteeonClimateChangePolicies;requiresARBtoprioritizedirectemissionreductionsfromstationarysources,mobilesources,andothersourcesandconsidersocialcostswhenadoptingregulationstoreduceGHGemissionsbeyondthe2020statewidelimit;requiresARBtopreparereportsonsourcesofGHGs,criteriaairpollutants,andtoxicaircontaminants;establishes6‐yeartermsforvotingmembersofARB;andaddstwolegislatorsasnon‐votingmembersofARB.BothbillsweresignedbyGovernorBrowninSeptember2016.

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Unitofmeasure.TheunitofmeasureusedthroughouttheCAPUpdateismetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(MTCO2e).PresentinginventoriesincarbondioxideequivalenceallowscharacterizationofthecomplexmixtureofGHGasasingleunittakingintoaccountthateachgashasadifferentglobalwarmingpotential(GWP).Forthisanalysis,theGWPvaluesfromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)FifthAssessmentReportwereused.ThepreviousinventoryanalysisusedGWPvaluesfromtheIPCC’sSecondAssessmentReport.OnemillionMTCO2eisabbreviatedMMTCO2e.

1.3 Community and Municipal—Overlap and Differences

ThisanalysiscomprisestwoseparateGHGinventories:oneforcommunityoperationsandoneformunicipaloperations.ThecommunityinventoryfocusesonGHGemissionsthatresultfromactivitieswithintheunincorporatedareasoftheCounty.Someoftheseemissionsmaybeduetomunicipalactivitiesandsomemaynot.ThemunicipalinventoryfocusesonGHGemissionsthatresultfromtheCounty’smunicipaloperationsanddoesnotincludeGHGemissionsgeneratedbythecommunity(i.e.,theseemissionsareincludedinthecommunityinventory).

However,theremaybesomeminoroverlapintheemissionsthatareaccountedforinbothinventorieswhereCountyfacilitiesandactionsoccurintheunincorporatedCountyareas.Theemissionsinthesesectorsmaybecountedasbothmunicipalandcommunityemissions,asillustratedinFigure1‐1.Forexample,employeecommuteemissionsarecountedasmunicipalemissions,buttheymayalsooccurintheunincorporatedareasandwould,therefore,beincludedinvehiclemilestraveleddatafortheunincorporatedareas.BecausesomeoftheCounty’soperationstakeplacewithinthejurisdictionofcitiesandpertainonlytomunicipaloperations,theCounty’smunicipalemissionsdonotentirelyoverlapwithcommunityemissionsintheunincorporatedareas(Figure1‐1).

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Figure 1-1. Overlap between Community Emissions and Municipal Emissions2

1.4 Contents of the GHG Inventory Report ThisGHGinventoryreportconsistsofthefollowingchapters.

Chapter1,IntroductionandBackgroundInformation,describesthepurposeofthisreportandprovidesrelevantbackgroundinformationongreenhousegasinventories.

Chapter2,GreenhouseGasInventories,summarizestheresultsoftheupdatedcommunityandmunicipalinventories.Abriefoverviewofthemethodsusedfortheinventoriesisalsopresented.

Chapter3,KeyGHGInventoryTrends,includesasummaryanddiscussionoftheCounty’semissionsbetweenthepreviousinventoryreportandthisanalysis.

Chapter4,References,includescitationsforthedocumentsusedtopreparetheinventoryreport.

1.5 Overview of San Bernardino County SanBernardinoCountyislocatedintheSouthernCaliforniaregionandisthelargestcountyintheUnitedStates.ItisborderedbythecountiesofInyo,Kern,LosAngeles,Orange,andRiverside,andthestatesofNevadaandArizona.TheCountyhasadiversevarietyoflandscapes,includingforests,mountains,lakes,anddeserts.Thereare24incorporatedwithintheCounty,aswellasmanyothercensus‐designatedplacesandunincorporatedcommunities.ThelargestemployersintheCountyareintheindustriesofrailroads,schools/universities,hospitals,andstateandcountygovernment.Over2millionpeopleliveintheentireCounty3ofwhich325,000liveintheunincorporatedCountyarea.

2Thesizesofthecirclesarenottoscalebutattempttoillustratethedifferencebetweencommunityandmunicipalemissions.3UnitedStatesCensus:https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/AFN120212/06071.

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FortheanalysisoftheCounty’sGHGemissions,onlytheunincorporatedareasoftheCountyareincludedintheinventory.TheunincorporatedareasoftheCountyaredividedintofourdistinctregions:eastdesert,mountains,northdesert,andvalley.Thesocioeconomicdatafortheseregions(i.e.,population,employmentandhouseholddata),whicharerelevanttotheGHGinventoryanalysis,areshowninTable1‐1.

Table 1-1. Socioeconomic Data for Unincorporated San Bernardino County by Region in 2014

Region Population Households Employment

EastDesert 25,453 10,435 2,443

Mountains 60,110 22,126 7,715

NorthDesert 95,580 30,886 9,587

Valley 143,920 34,432 37,680

TotalUnincorporatedCounty 325,064 97,879 57,425

Source:pers.comm.Hicks2016

1.6 Background on Climate Change and GHG Emissions

ThephenomenonknownasthegreenhouseeffectkeepstheatmosphereneartheEarth’ssurfacewarmenoughforthesuccessfulhabitationofhumansandotherlifeforms.Thegreenhouseeffectiscreatedbysunlightthatpassesthroughtheatmosphere(Figure1‐2).SomeofthesunlightstrikingtheEarthisabsorbedandconvertedtoheat,whichwarmsthesurface.Thesurfaceemitsaportionofthisheatasinfraredradiation,someofwhichisabsorbedbyGHGsintheatmosphereandre‐emittedinalldirections,includingbacktowardtheEarth’ssurface.HumanactivitiesthatgenerateGHGsincreasetheamountofinfraredradiationabsorbedbytheatmosphere,thusenhancingthegreenhouseeffectandamplifyingthewarmingoftheEarth(CenterforClimateandEnergySolutions2011).

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Figure 1-2. The Greenhouse Effect

IncreasesinfossilfuelcombustionanddeforestationhaveexponentiallyincreasedconcentrationsofGHGsintheatmospheresincetheIndustrialRevolution.RisingatmosphericconcentrationsofGHGsinexcessofnaturallevelsresultinincreasingglobalsurfacetemperatures—aphenomenoncommonlyreferredtoasglobalwarming.Higherglobalsurfacetemperatures,inturn,resultinchangestoEarth’sclimatesystem,includingincreasedoceantemperatureandacidity,reducedseaice,variableprecipitation,andincreasedfrequencyandintensityofextremeweatherevents(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange2013).Large‐scalechangestoEarth’sclimatesystemarecollectivelyreferredtoasclimatechange.

Whilechangesinglobalclimatehavebeenrecordedthroughouthistory,thereisstrongconsensusamongthescientificcommunitythatrecentchangesaretheresultofhuman‐madeGHGemissions.ArecentstudypublishedinEnvironmentalResearchLettersindicatesthat97%ofclimatescientistsagreethathumanactivityis“verylikely”causingcurrentglobalwarmingtrends(Cooketal.2013).Everynationalacademyofscienceintheworldlikewiseconcursthathuman‐madeGHGemissions

Climate Change and Global Warming

Thetermsglobalwarmingandclimatechangeareoftenusedsynonymously,buttheyrefertotwodifferentprocesses.IncreasingglobalsurfacetemperaturesasaresultofrisingatmosphericconcentrationsofGHGs,inexcessofnaturallevels,isknownasglobalwarming.Large‐scalechangestotheEarth’ssysteminducedbyhigherglobalsurfacetemperaturesarecollectivelyreferredtoasclimatechange.DRAFT

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areacceleratingthemagnitudeandpaceofclimatechange.Asstatedpreviously,AB32identifiesthefollowingsixcompoundsasthemajorGHGs:CO2,CH4,N2O,PFCs,SF6,andHFCs.Generally,theseemissionsarequantifiedintermsofMTCO2eemittedperyear,whichaccountsfortherelativewarmingcapacity,orGWPofeachgas.WatervaporisnotidentifiedbyAB32asakeyGHGbecausenaturalconcentrationsandfluctuationsfaroutweighanthropogenicinfluence.Table1‐2describesthekeycharacteristicsandsourcesofthesixmajorGHGsidentifiedbyAB32.

Table 1-2. Principal Greenhouse Gas Emissions

GreenhouseGasChemicalFormula(s) PrimaryEmissionsSources

GlobalWarmingPotentiala

AtmosphericLifetime(years)

Carbondioxide CO2 BurningoffossilfuelsGasflaringCementproductionLandusechangesDeforestation

1 50–200

Methane CH4 AgriculturalpracticesNaturalgascombustionLandfilloutgassing

28 12.4

Nitrousoxide N2O AgriculturalpracticesNylonproductionGas‐firedpowerplantsNitricacidproductionVehicleemissions

265 121

Perfluorinatedcarbons

CF4C2F6

AluminumproductionSemiconductormanufacturing

6,630–11,100 10,000–50,000

Sulfurhexafluoride SF6 PowerdistributionSemiconductormanufacturingMagnesiumprocessing

23,500 3,200

Hydrofluorocarbons HFC‐23HFC‐134aHFC‐152a

ConsumerproductsAutomobileairconditionersRefrigerants

138–12,400 1.5–222

Source:IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange2013.aTheGWPslistedhereare100‐yearvalueswithoutcarbon‐climatefeedbacks,basedontheIPCC’sFifthAssessmentReport.

ThemajorityofGHGemissionsgeneratedintheUnitedStatesandCaliforniaareintheformofCO2.In2015,forexample,CO2accountedfor82%ofthefederalGHGinventory,withmostofthese

Sources, Sinks, and Global Warming Potentials for Greenhouse Gases

NaturalandhumanactivitiesthatgenerateGHGsarecommonlyreferredtoasemissionssources.TheburningoffossilfuelstopowerbuildingsandvehiclesistheprimarysourceofCO2andakeycontributorofCH4andN2Oemissions.AGHGsinkremovesandstoresGHGs.Forexample,vegetationisasinkbecauseitremovesatmosphericCO2duringphotosynthesis.

GHGsarenotcreatedequally.TheGlobalWarmingPotential,orGWP,isusedtocompareGHGsbasedontheirpotentialtotrapheatandremainintheatmosphere.Somegasescanabsorbmoreheatthanothers,andthushaveagreaterimpactonglobalwarming.Forexample,CO2isconsideredtohaveaGWPof1,whereasN2OhasaGWPof265.ThismeansthatN2Ois265timesmorepowerfulthanCO2.

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emissionsgeneratedthroughthecombustionoffossilfuels(U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency2017).Fossilfuelsareburnedtocreateelectricityandheattopowerhomes,commercialbuildings,andvehicles.IntheUnitedStates,energyusedtopowerbuildingsistheprimarysourceofGHGemissions,representing29%ofthe2015federalGHGinventory.ThetransportationsectoristhenextlargestsourceGHGemissions(27%)(U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency2017).InCalifornia,theemissionsprofileisslightlydifferent,withthetransportationsectorrepresentingthelargestsourceofemissions(39%),followedbyindustrialemissions(23%)andelectricitygeneration(19%)foratotalof81%ofthestate’semissions(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2017).OthersourcesofGHGemissionsgeneratedintheUnitedStatesandCaliforniaincludeindustrialprocesses,commercialandresidentialbuildings,andagriculturalactivities.

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Chapter 2 Updated Greenhouse Gas Inventories

2.1 Community Inventory Overview

SanBernardinoCounty’s2014CommunityInventoryincludesGHGemissionsgeneratedbyactivitieswithintheunincorporatedareasoftheCountyonly.Theinventoryalsoincludesemissionsthatoccuroutsidetheunincorporatedareas,butonlytotheextentthatsuchemissionsaretheresultofcommunityactivities.Forexample,GHGemissionsgeneratedbyregionalpowerplantstoprovideelectricitytolocalhomesandbusinessesintheunincorporatedareasareincludedintheinventoryeventhoughthepowerplantsthemselvesmaynotbelocatedwithintheunincorporatedareasoftheCounty.TheanalysisofcommunityGHGemissionsisbasedontheICLEIU.S.CommunityProtocolforAccountingandReportingGreenhouseGasEmissions,whichisacomprehensiveprotocolforquantifyingGHGemissions(LocalGovernmentsforSustainability2013).

TotalGHGemissionsproducedbycommunityactivitiesintheunincorporatedareasoftheCountyin2014were2,952,859MTCO2e,whichisapproximately0.7%ofCalifornia’sGHGemissionsinthesameyear.4

AsshowninTable2‐1andFigure2‐1,on‐roadtransportationandbuildingenergyemissionsrepresentthelargestsourcesofcommunityemissions(approximately40%and30%ofthe2014CommunityInventory).On‐roadtransportationistypicallyaconsiderablecomponentofacommunity’stotalGHGemissions,rangingfrom30to70%dependingonothersourcesandlocalconditions.Themajorityofon‐roademissionsintheCountycomefrompersonalandlight‐dutyvehicles.BuildingenergyisalsooftenoneofthelargestsourcesofGHGemissionsincommunityinventoriesandincludesenergyconsumedforheating,cooling,lighting,andcookingintheresidential,commercial,industrial,andothersectors.Thethird‐largestsourceislandfillemissions,withacontributionof16%ofthetotal2014CommunityInventory.Thenextlargestsourcesintheinventoryarerefrigerants(5%),wateruse(3%),off‐roadvehiclesandequipment,wastewatertreatment,andagriculture(2%each),andresidentialfueluse(lessthan1%).Stationarysourceemissionsfromemissionsproducingfacilities(includingcementproductionfacilities)intheCountyrepresentalargesourceofemissions(4.5MMTCO2e);however,asdiscussedabove,theseemissionsareprovidedforinformationalpurposesandarenotincludedintheinventorytotal,becauseofthelackofjurisdictionalcontrolthattheCountyhasoverthesesources.ThemethodsusedtoquantifycommunityGHGemissionsarediscussedinAppendixA.

4CaliforniastatewideGHGemissionsin2014were441.9millionmetrictonsofCO2e(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2017).

Updated Greenhouse Gas Inventories

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Table 2-1. San Bernardino County 2014 Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory

EmissionSector

2014Inventory

Emissions(MTCO2e) Percent(%)ofInventory

BuildingEnergy 875,681 29.7

On‐RoadTransportation 1,188,893 40.3

Off‐RoadVehiclesandEquipment 48,442 1.6

SolidWaste/Landfills 468,140 15.9

WaterUse 89,694 3.0

WastewaterTreatment 65,335 2.2

Refrigerants 146,823 5.0

Agriculture 68,752 2.3

ResidentialFuelUse 1,099 0.04

CountyTotal 2,952,859 100.0

EmissionsforInformationalPurposes

StationarySources 2,208,124 N/A

CementProduction 2,308,909 N/A

N/A=notapplicable

Figure 2-1. San Bernardino County 2014 Community Inventory by Sector

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AsshowninTable2‐1,the2014communityinventoryisdividedintonineprimarysectors.Eachsectorrepresentsasubsetofcommunityemissions,andsomecomprisemultipleemissions‐generatingactivities.Forexample,naturalgasandelectricityconsumptionarebothincludedinthebuildingenergysector.Theninesectorsanalyzedrepresentthemajoremissionscategorieswithinthecountyandaredefinedasfollows.

Buildingenergy.Thebuildingenergysectorconsistsofemissionsfromelectricitygenerationandnaturalgascombustionbyresidential,commercial,industrial,andotherbuildingslocatedintheCounty.Thissectorisprimarilycomposedoftwomainsourcesofemissions:electricityconsumption(approximately73%ofemissions)andnaturalgasconsumption(approximately27%ofemissions).In2014,thetopthreeconsumersofelectricityweretheindustrial(55%),residential(31%),andcommercial(14%)sectors.Fornaturalgas,thethreelargestconsumersareresidential(70%),commercial(22%),andindustrial(6%).Buildingenergyistypicallyoneofthelargestsectorsinajurisdiction.IntheCounty,buildingenergyemissionsareapproximately30%oftotalemissions,whichisthesecond‐largestsector.

On‐roadtransportation.Theon‐roadtransportationsectorconsistsoffuelconsumptionemissionsfromvehicletripsrelatedtolanduseswithintheCounty.VehicletripsrelatedtolandusesintheCountytraveledanestimated2.4billionmilesin2014,resultinginapproximately1.2MMTCO2e.Approximately93%oftheannualmilestraveledareestimatedtobelightdutyvehicles(i.e.,passengervehicles),while7%areestimatedtobeheavy‐dutyvehicles(i.e.,trucks).On‐roadtransportationisthelargestemissionsectorfortheCounty’scommunityinventory(40%ofcommunityemissions),whichisconsistentwithGHGinventoriesforothermunicipaljurisdictions.

Off‐roadvehiclesandequipment.Theoff‐roadvehiclesandequipmentsectorconsistsoffuelconsumptionemissionsfromuseofoff‐roadequipment(e.g.,cranes,bulldozers,lawnmowers,watercraft).Off‐roadvehiclesandequipmentintheCountyconsumedanestimated4.9milliongallonsoffuelin2014,resultingin48,442MTCO2e.Thetypesoffuelconsumedincludegasoline,diesel,andliquefiedpetroleumgas.Thissectoristypicallyasmallportionofajurisdiction’sGHGinventory,astheactivityinvolved(i.e.,operatinglawnmowers,bulldozers)isminorwhencomparedtoon‐roadvehicletravelorbuildingenergy.In2014,thissectorrepresentslessthan2%ofGHGemissions.

Waste/landfills.Thewaste/landfillssectorincludesCH4emissionsfromwastegeneratedwithintheCounty,andCH4emissionsreleaseddirectlyfromCounty‐ownedlandfills.WastegeneratedintheCountyin2014includesapproximately102,000tonsofresidentialwasteandnearly141,000tonsofnon‐residentialwaste.ThewastegeneratedintheCountywassentto23landfillsoperatedbytheCountyandtwolandfillsnotoperatedbytheCounty.Solidwasteemissionsarethethird‐largestsectoroftheCommunityinventory,representingnearly16%oftheCounty’stotalemissions.EmissionsfromwastegeneratedbythecommunityareincludedasaseparateitemonlyfortheportionofwastethatissenttolandfillsnotoperatedbytheCounty.ForallotherwastegeneratedbythecommunityandsenttolandfillsoperatedbytheCounty,thedecompositionemissionsareincludedinthelandfillcomponentofthewastesector.

Wateruse.Thewaterusesectorconsistsofemissionsfromelectricityandnaturalgasconsumptionassociatedwithwateruse,includinggroundwaterpumping,localwaterdistribution,andsurfacewaterdiversion.ItisestimatedthatwaterconsumptionintheCountyin2014isover32billiongallons,resultinginover345millionkilowatthours(kWh)of

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electricityconsumedtotreat,convey,anddistributewater.Theindirectelectricityemissionsresultingfromthewater‐relatedelectricityconsumptionarenearly90,000MTCO2e.

Wastewatertreatment.ThewastewatertreatmentsectorconsistsofFugitiveemissionsfromcommunitywastewatertreatment,andemissionsfromelectricityconsumedatwastewatertreatmentplantsduetoCountywastewatergeneration.Emissionsinthissectorrepresentabout2%oftheCounty’stotalemissions,whichisoneofthesmallestsectorsintheCommunityinventory.Electricityconsumptionassociatedwithwatertreatmentplantsandwastewaterconveyanceisestimatedtobeover194millionkWhin2014.Electricityconsumptionaccountsforapproximately78%ofwastewatertreatmentemissions.Approximately6%ofthewastewatertreatmentsectoristheresultoffugitiveemissionsdirectlyemittedfromwastewaterattreatmentplants,while16%ofthissectoristheresultofdirectemissionsfromseptictanksystemsintheCounty(i.e.,residencesnotconnectedtoacentralsewersystem).

Refrigerants.Therefrigerantssectorconsistsofhigh‐GWPgasesareemittedfromresidentialandcommercial/industrialstationaryrefrigerationandair‐conditioningequipment.High‐GWPrefrigerantsincludechlorofluorocarbons(CFCs),HCFCs,andHFCs.ThissectoristhefourthlargestsectorintheCounty,resultinginapproximately5%oftheCommunityinventoryemissions.

Agriculture.TheagriculturesectorconsistsofN2OemissionsfromfertilizerapplicationandCH4emissionsfrommanuremanagementandentericfermentationfromlivestockintheunincorporatedareas.Emissionsemitteddirectlyfromlivestockandtheirmanureisthepredominantemissionssourceforthissector(approximately96%ofagricultureemissions).TheseemissionsincludeCH4andN2Oemitteddirectlyfromcows,chickensandturkeysandtheirmanure.EmissionsresultingfromtheuseoffertilizeroncropsintheCountyrepresentasmallerportionofagricultureemissions(approximately4%).Thereareawidevarietyoffruit,vegetable,andgraincropsintheCountythatwouldrequireanestimated1.3millionpoundsoffertilizerin2014.TheagriculturesectorisoneofthesmallersectorsintheCounty,representingapproximately2%oftotalemissions.

Residentialfueluse.Theresidentialfuelusesectorconsistsofstationaryfuelcombustionatresidencesofpropane/liquidpetroleum(LPG),kerosene,andwood.Thissectorincludessourcesofenergyresultingfromheatingorotherpurposesatresidencesfromenergysourcesotherthanelectricityandnaturalgas,whichareincludedintheBuildingEnergysector.Themajorityofenergyconsumedamongthesesourcesisfromwood(81%),whileLPGandkerosenerepresentsmallerportions(19%andlessthan1%,respectively).BecausetheCO2emissionsreleasedwhenwoodisburnedareconsideredtobebiogenic,5woodburningemissionsonlyincludeCH4andN2O.Non‐buildingenergysourcesofenergyareasmallportionoftheenergyconsumedintheCounty,andthusemissionsforthissectorareless0.5%ofthetotalCommunityemissions.

Additionalemissionswereestimatedforinformationalpurposesbutwerenotincludedintheinventoryforthefollowingreasons.

Stationarysourcesandcementproduction.Stationaryfuelcombustionandprocessemissionsforindustrialandcommercialfacilities(doesnotincludenaturalgascombustion;thisisincludedinthebuildingenergysector),andcementproductionfacilitieswerenotincludedintheCounty’stotalcommunityGHGemissions.Theseemissionswerenotincludedbecausethe

5EmissionsthatbiogenicarefromnaturalsourcesandarenotincludedinGHGaccountingprotocols.

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Countyhaslimitedjurisdictionalcontroloverstationarysources,andlargestationarypointsourceemissionsareregulatedbytheStateofCalifornia(underAB32throughcap‐and‐trade)andthroughtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)andSouthCoastAirQualityManagementDistrict(undertheCleanAirAct)forGHGemissions.Thus,inparticularforthelargerstationarypointsources,localregulationofsuchsourcescanbeduplicativeofstateandfederalauthority.

2.2 Municipal Inventory Overview

TheCounty’sFY2015MunicipalInventoryincludesGHGemissionsgeneratedbytheCounty’slocalgovernmentoperationsasitprovidesservicestothepublic.Theinventoryincludesemissionsthatoccureitherinsideoroutsidetheunincorporatedareas,butonlytotheextentthatsuchemissionsaretheresultofmunicipalactivities.Forexample,GHGemissionsgeneratedbyaCountyemployeewholivesinRiversideCountyandcommutestoworkareincludedintheinventoryeventhoughmostoftheemissionsmaynotbeemittedwithintheunincorporatedareasoftheCounty.TheanalysisofmunicipalGHGemissionsisbasedontheLocalGovernmentOperationsProtocolfortheQuantificationandReportingofGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventories,whichisamethodologyintendedforlocalgovernmentstoquantifytheirGHGemissionsassociatedwithmunicipaloperations(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardet.al.2010).

The2015MunicipalInventoryisdividedinto10majorsectors.Eachsectorrepresentsasubsetofmunicipalemissions,andsomecomprisemultipleemissions‐generatingactivities.TotalGHGemissionsproducedbymunicipalactivitiesintheunincorporatedareasoftheCountyinFY2015were635,829MTCO2e,whichisapproximately0.1%ofCalifornia’sGHGemissionsinthesameyear.6

AsshowninTable2‐2andFigure2‐2,solidwaste/landfillsisthelargestsourceofemissionsbyasubstantialmargin.WhiletheCountyownsandoperatesanumberoflandfills,non‐Countywasteissenttotheselandfills.Buildingenergyandemployeecommuteemissionsrepresentthenextlargestsourcesofcommunityemissions(approximately9%oftheMunicipalinventoryeach).TheCountyownsandleasesmanybuildingsforitsmunicipaloperationsandhasover19,000employees,soenergyconsumptionandvehiclecommuteemissionsrepresentsizableportionsofthemunicipalinventory.ThenextlargestsourcesintheinventoryaretheCountyvehiclefleet.Therestofthesectorsintheinventoryrepresentlessthan1%ofthetotalemissions.ThemethodsusedtoquantifymunicipalGHGemissionsarediscussedinAppendixA.

Table 2-2. San Bernardino County Fiscal Year 2015 Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory

EmissionSectora

2014Inventory

BuildingEnergy 58,742 9.2

StreetlightsandTrafficSignals 670 0.1

6CaliforniastatewideGHGemissionsin2015were440.4millionmetrictonsofCO2e(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2017).

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EmissionSectora

2014Inventory

VehicleFleet 38,656 6.1

SolidWaste/Landfills 468,024 73.6

EmployeeCommute 58,961 9.3

Water&WastewaterPumpingEquipment 1,713 0.3

WaterUse 3,083 0.5

WastewaterTreatment 4,349 0.7

Refrigerants 1,631 0.3

MunicipalTotal 635,829 100.0

Figure 2-2. San Bernardino County 2014 Municipal Inventory by Sector

AsshowninTable2‐2,themunicipalinventoryisdividedintonineprimarysectors.Eachsectorrepresentsasubsetofcommunityemissions,andsomecomprisemultipleemissions‐generatingactivities.Forexample,naturalgasandelectricityconsumptionarebothincludedinthebuildingenergysector.TheninesectorsanalyzedrepresentthemajoremissionscategorieswithintheCountyandaredefinedasfollows.

Buildingenergy.ThebuildingenergysectorconsistsofemissionsfromelectricitygenerationandnaturalgascombustionbyCounty‐ownedandleasedbuildings.TheenergyconsumedtopowerCounty‐ownedbuildingsresultsin9%oftheCounty’stotalmunicipalemissions,whichmakesthissectorthethirdlargest.TheCountyownsandleasesmanybuildingsacrossdifferentregionsandserviceareastohouseitsmunicipalemployees.Basedontheavailabledata,itis

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estimatedthatbuildingsassociatedwithCountyoperations(includingownedandleasedbuildings)consumedmorethan161millionkWhofelectricityand3millionthermsofnaturalgasinFY2015.Themajorityofthemunicipalbuildingenergyemissionsarefromelectricityconsumption(71%),whilenaturalgasconsumptioncontributesasmallerportion(28%).Propaneuseinmunicipalbuildingscontributeslessthan1%tobuildingenergyemissions.

Streetlightsandtrafficsignals.ThestreetlightsandtrafficsignalssectorconsistsofemissionsfromelectricitygenerationtooperateCounty‐ownedstreetlightsandtrafficsignals.EmissionsfromthissectorareasmallcomponentoftheCounty’smunicipalinventory,resultinginabout0.1%ofemissions.ElectricityconsumptionforstreetlightsandtrafficsignalsownedbytheCountyisestimatedtobe2.7millionkWh.

Vehiclefleet.ThevehiclefleetsectorconsistsoffuelconsumptionemissionsfromCountyvehicles(e.g.,policecars,firetrucks).EmissionsgeneratedbyCounty‐ownedvehiclesresultedinover38,000MTCO2einFY2015,whichmakesthissectorthefourthlargest.EstimatedfuelconsumptioninCountyon‐roadvehiclesisover4milliongallons,themajorityofwhichisgasoline(82%)anddiesel(18%).Off‐roadvehiclesownedbytheCountyconsumednearly142,000gallonsoffuelinFY2015,themajorityofwhichisdiesel(98%).ThevehiclefleetsectoralsoincludesCounty‐ownedequipmentthatispoweredbyfuelbutisnotnecessarilyavehicle,suchasemergencygeneratorsandotherstationaryequipment.

Employeecommute.TheemployeecommutesectorconsistsoffuelconsumptionemissionsfromCountyemployeescommutingtoandfromtheirworksites.Employeecommuteemissionsaretypicallyoneofthelargestsectorsinajurisdiction’smunicipalinventory.FortheCounty,municipalemployeescommutingtoandfromworkgeneratesover9%ofthetotalmunicipalemissions.InFY2015,municipalemployeesassociatedwiththeCountytraveledalmost143millionmiles.Itisestimatedthat86%ofCountyemployeescommutetoworkalonebycar,whilenearly12%commuteinacarpoolwithmorethanoneperson.Lessthan2%ofCountyemployeesareestimatedtocommutetoworkviaothermeans,suchasbybus,bicycle,walking,etc.

Waste/landfills.Thewaste/landfillssectorconsistsofCH4emissionsfromwastegeneratedinmunicipalbuildings,andCH4emissionsreleaseddirectlybyCounty‐ownedlandfills.ThesolidwasteandlandfillssectoristhelargestsourceofGHGemissionsfortheCounty’smunicipaloperationsbyfar.InFY2015,theCountyhadjurisdictionalcontrolover23landfills.Wastesenttotheselandfills,however,camefrommanyjurisdictionsnotassociatedwiththeCounty,itspopulation,oremployees.AllofthewasteemissionsfromlandfillsareattributedtotheCounty,consistentwithGHGaccountingprotocols,becausetheCountymaintainsjurisdictionalcontroloverthelandfills.TheCounty’scontroloverthelandfillsisrelevanttopotentialfutureGHGreductionplanningefforts,suchasinstallingCH4captureand/orCH4flaringatlandfills.

WaterandwastewaterpumpingEquipment.ThewaterandwastewaterpumpingsectorconsistsofemissionsfromenergyusedtoconveyandpumpwaterandwastewaterbyCounty‐ownedpumpingequipment.County‐ownedequipmentthatpumpswaterorwastewatermayservemunicipalornon‐municipalbuildings,buttheCountyhasjurisdictionalcontrolovertheequipment.ThissectorrepresentsasmallportionoftheCounty’smunicipalinventory(lessthan0.3%oftotalemissions).ElectricityconsumedforCounty‐ownedpumpingequipmentisestimatedtobe6.5millionkWh.

Wateruse.ThewaterusesectorconsistsofemissionsfromelectricityandnaturalgasconsumptionassociatedwithwaterconsumptioninCounty‐ownedbuildings.Emissionsinthis

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sectorwouldcontributeapproximately3,083MTCO2eofGHGemission,whichislessthan0.5%oftheCounty’stotalmunicipalemissions.EstimatedwaterconsumptioninCountybuildingsandforCountyoperationsisover1billiongallonsforFY2015,resultingin11.9millionkWhofelectricitytotreatanddistributethatwater.

Wastewatertreatment.ThewastewatertreatmentsectorconsistsoffugitiveemissionsfromwastewatertreatmentthatisproducedinCounty‐ownedbuildings.Emissionsinthissector,generatedaswastewaterfromCountybuildingsandoperationsaretreatedinwastewatertreatmentplants,wouldcontributelessthan1%oftotalemissions.ElectricityconsumptionresultingfromCountywastewaterwouldbenearly16millionkWhinFY2015.

Refrigerants.Therefrigerantssectorconsistsoffugitiveemissions(leaks)fromequipmentthatrequiretheuseofrefrigerantsinCountyfacilities(e.g.,vendingmachines,refrigerators,airconditioners).Thissectorisoneofthesmallestsourcesofemissionsinthemunicipalinventory(eighthlargest).TherefrigerantquantityusedinCounty‐ownedequipmentandvehiclesinFY2015isestimatedtobe1.2metrictons.

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Chapter 3 Key Greenhouse Gas Inventory Trends

3.1 Introduction ThischapterdiscussestrendsinemissionsbetweentheCounty’spreviousinventoriesandcurrentinventories,includingemissionstrendsbysectorforboththecommunityandmunicipalinventories.Thischapteralsodescribestheunderlyingfactorsthatmayhavecontributedtotheseemissionstrends,includingchangesindemographics,economicforces,andotherexternalchanges,andattemptstodistinguishthesechangesfrommethodologicaldifferencesbetweenthecurrentandpriorinventorymethods.Forsomesectors,asdiscussedbelow,emissionsmethodologiesdifferbetweenthedifferentinventoryyearssuchthatidentificationofclearemissionstrendsforthesesectorsisnotpossible.

3.2 Community GHG Inventory Trends: 2007–2014 Basedonastrictcomparisonoftheprior2007inventoryandthecurrent2014inventory,communityGHGemissionshaveoveralldecreasedby13%.Asdiscussedbelow,thetwoinventoriesdiffersubstantiallyinmethodologyduetochangesininventoryguidanceandpracticeovertime,andassuch,astrictcomparisonofthetwoinventoriesisnotanappropriatereflectionofthechangeinemissionsbetween2007and2014.ThereasonsforthechangesbetweeninventoriesisdiscussedinSection3.4,SectorTrends..

AsshowninTable3‐1,acomparisonofthetwoinventoriesindicatesdecreasedemissionsforsomesectorsandincreasedemissionsinothersectors.Sectorswithsubstantialinventoriedincreasesoverthepreviousinventoryincludelandfills,waterconveyance,wastewater,andresidentialfueluse.Inventoriedemissionsinothersectorshavedecreasedbymoderateamounts(buildingenergy,on‐roadtransportation,off‐roadvehiclesandequipment),whiletheagriculturesectorhasexperiencedaminorincrease.Therefrigerantssectorwasnotincludedinthepreviousinventory.

Key Greenhouse Gas Inventory Trends

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Table 3-1. Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory Comparison Table (2007–2014)

EmissionSector

2007InventoryEmissions(MTCO2e)

2014InventoryEmissions(MTCO2e)

ChangeinInventoriedEmissions

2007–2014(%)

BuildingEnergy 1,280,931 875,681 ‐32

On‐RoadTransportation 1,631,666 1,188,893 ‐27

Off‐RoadVehiclesandEquipment 157,185 48,442 ‐69

SolidWaste/Landfills 213,191 468,140 120

WaterConveyance/WaterUse 10,696 89,694 739

WastewaterTreatment 27,994 65,335 133

Refrigerants Notincluded 146,823 N/A

Agriculture 64,619 68,752 6

ResidentialFuelUsea 346 1,099 218

CountyTotal 3,386,628 2,952,859 ‐13

CountyTotalw/oSolidWaste/Landfillsb 3,173,437 2,484,719 ‐21

EmissionsforInformationalPurposes

StationarySources 137,174 2,208,124 1,510

CementProduction 2,729,261 2,308,909 ‐15Notes:aThenameofthissectorinthepreviousinventoryisMiscellaneous:Residentialfires&cookingbTotalprovidedasthemajorityofsolidwasteinCountylandfillsisnotderivedfromtheunincorporatedCountyitself.N/A=notapplicable

Figure3.1illustratesGHGemissions,theCountypopulation,andthepercapitarateofemissionsforboththepreviousandcurrentinventoryyear.Althoughthepopulationhasincreasedbetween2007and2014,asshowninFigure3.1,totalandpercapitaemissionshavebothdecreased.AnotherusefulmetrictoevaluateemissionsistheServicePopulation(SP)metric,whichisthesumofpopulationandemployment.Figure3.1alsoincludestheSPmetricandshowsthatthe2014GHGemissionswere7.7MTCO2e/SPcomparedto2007GHGemissionsof10.2MTCO2e/SP,whichisadeclineof32%inemissionsintensity.

Becausethetotalinventoryemissionsaresimplythesumofeachofthesectors,thereasonsforthechangesillustratedinFigure3.1arediscussedindetailbysectorinSection3.4,SectorTrends.Someofthechangesreflectdifferencesininventorymethodologyasopposedtoreal‐worldchangesinemissions.DRAFT

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Figure 3-1. County Community Emissions Trend, 2007–2014

3.3 Municipal GHG Inventory Trends: Fiscal Years 2006–2015

MunicipalGHGemissionsbetweenthepreviousinventoryandthecurrentinventoryhaveincreasedbyasubstantialmargin(approximately87%).AsshowninTable3‐1,emissionsforsomesectorshavedecreasedmoderately(waterandwastewaterpumpingequipment),whileemissionsforothersectorshaveincreasedsubstantially(streetlightsandtrafficsignals,solidwaste/landfills,andemployeecommute).Thebuildingenergysectorexperiencedaminordecreaseof7%betweenthepreviousandcurrentinventories,whilethevehiclefleetsectorexperiencedanincreaseof11%.Anumberofsectorshavebeenincludedinthecurrentinventorythatwerenotincludedinthepreviousinventory(waterconsumption,wastewatertreatment,andrefrigerants).Onaper‐employeebase,GHGemissionshavechangedfrom20MTCO2e/employeeinFY2006to32.7MTCO2e/employeeinFY2015.

Thereasonsforthechangesbetweeninventoriesisbestexplainedinthediscussionofindividualsectortrends,inSection3.4,SectorTrends.DRAFT

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Table 3-2. Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventory Comparison Table: Fiscal Years 2006–2015

EmissionSector2006Emissions

(MTCO2e)2015Emissions

(MTCO2e)

ChangeinEmissions

2006–2015(%)

BuildingEnergy 62,981 58,742 ‐7

StreetlightsandTrafficSignals 276 670 143

VehicleFleet 34,958 38,656 11

SolidWaste/Landfills 206,817 468,024 126

EmployeeCommute 32,490 58,961 81

Water&WastewaterPumpingEquipment

2,192 1,713 ‐22

WaterConsumption Notincluded 3,083 N/A

WastewaterTreatment Notincluded 4,349 N/A

Refrigerants Notincluded 1,631 N/A

MunicipalTotals 339,714 635,829 87

ExcludingSolidWaste/Landfills 132,987 167,805 26

N/A=notapplicable

Figure3.2illustratesmunicipalGHGemissions,Countyemployees,andthepermunicipalemploymentrateofemissionsforboththepreviousandcurrentinventoryyear.ThenumberofCountyemployeeshasincreasedbetweenFYs2006and2015,asshowninFigure3.2,andtotalandpermunicipalemploymentemissionshaveallincreasedbyapproximately87%.Asdiscussedabove,thesolidwaste/landfillsectoremissionsinthecurrentinventoryaresubstantiallygreaterthanthepreviousinventory,whichistheprimaryreasonforthe87%increase.Ifoneexcludesthesolidwaste/landfillsector,thenmunicipalemissionshaveincreasedby26%fromFY2006to2015.Onaperemployeebasis,municipalemissionshaveincreased64%since2006.However,whenexcludingthesolidwaste/landfillsector,thenperemployeeemissionsaresimilarbetweenFYs2006and2015(7.8and8.6MTCO2e/employee,respectively).

Thereasonsforthechangesinsolidwaste/landfillsectoremissionsbetweeninventories,andforallothermunicipalsectors,arediscussedinSection3.4,SectorTrends.

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Figure 3-2. County Municipal Emissions Trend, Fiscal Years 2006–2015

3.4 Sector Trends Thesubsectionsbelowdiscussthetrendsobservedbetweenthepreviousandthecurrentinventories.Lookingattheindividualsectortrendsprovidesamorerevealingassessmentofhowemissionshavechangedcomparedtoacommunity‐ormunicipal‐widecomparison.

Building Energy Community

Community‐widebuildingenergyemissionshavedecreasedbyapproximately32%betweenthepreviousinventoryandcurrentinventory,despiteanincreaseinpopulationandemployment.AportionoftheincreasecanbeexplainedbyadecreaseintheemissionsintensityofelectricityproducedintheSouthernCaliforniaregion.SouthernCaliforniaEdison(SCE),whichsuppliesthemajorityofelectricitytotheCounty,iscontinuallyincreasingitsrenewableenergyportfolio.In2014,36%ofSCE’selectricitysourceswerefromnon‐GHG‐emittingsources(e.g.,geothermal,solar,wind,nuclear)resultinginaGHGemissionsfactorfor2014(260kilogramspermega‐watthourofelectricity)thatisapproximately10%lessthantheGHGemissionsfactorusedinthe2007inventory(291kilogramspermegawatthourofelectricity)(SouthernCaliforniaEdison2014,2015).ElectricityemissionsfactorsforotherutilitiesthatprovidetheCountywithelectricity(BearValleyElectricServices,CityofColtonElectricUtility,andCityofNeedlesElectricUtility)werenotincludedinthepreviousinventorybutareincludedinthecurrentinventory;thus,thedownwardtrendis

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primarilytheresultofSCE’sincreasedrenewableportfolio.Energyefficiencyimprovementsinresidencesandbusinessesarealsolikelyacontributortothedecreaseinemissions.

Anotherreasonforthedifferenceinemissionsisadifferenceinemissionsreportingacrosssectors.Inthepreviousinventory,somewaterandwastewaterrelatedenergyemissionswereincludedinthissector.Forinstance,inthepreviousinventory,onlywater‐relatedenergyemissionstoimportwaterfromoutsideoftheCountyareincludedinthewatersector,whileallotherwater‐relatedenergy(conveyanceanddistributionwithintheCounty)areincludedinthebuildingenergysector.Additionally,thepreviousinventoryonlyincludesfugitiveemissionsreleasedfromwastewaterinthewastewatersectorbutincludesenergyconsumptionatwastewatertreatmentplantsinthebuildingenergysector.

Thecurrentinventoryreportsallwater‐andwastewater‐relatedenergyemissionsintheirrespectivesectorstotheextentpossible.FromaGHGreductionplanningperspective,itismostpracticaltoincludeallwaterandwastewateremissionsintheirownsectors,eveniftheemissionsarefromenergyconsumption,becausethisallowsastraightforwardassessmentofwhichsectorswillbemostaffectedbyGHG‐reductionefforts.Forexample,ifwater‐relatedemissionsareincludedinthebuildingenergysectorandappeartoinflatethetotalemissionsinthatsector,investinginwater‐specificGHG‐reductionefforts,suchasinstallingmoreefficientwaterpumpingequipment,maynotbeanobviouschoice.Thus,thecurrentinventoryisreportingemissionsforthebuildingenergysectorandoverlapping/relatedsectorsdifferentlythanthepreviousinventory.

Municipal—County Facilities BuildingenergyemissionsgeneratedbyenergyconsumedinCountyfacilitiesdecreasedbetweenthepreviousinventoryandcurrentinventorybyapproximately7%.Adecreaseinemissionsisexpected,however,asdiscussedintheCommunitytrendsdiscussion,theemissionsintensityofelectricityproducedintheSouthernCaliforniaregionhasdecreased.BecausetheemissionintensityoftheelectricityconsumedinCountyfacilitieshasdecreased,itisreasonablethattheoverallbuildingenergyemissionshaveexperiencedadownwardtrend.Becauseclimatechangeiscausingglobaltemperaturestoincrease,itispossiblethedecreaseinemissionsisnotaslargeasitwouldotherwisebe,becauseincreasedenergydemandfrombuildingcoolingcouldbepartiallyoffsettingtheincreasedrenewableenergyportfoliosoftheutilityproviders.

EmissionsresultingfromnaturalgasorpropaneconsumptioninCountyfacilitiesarenotaffectedbytheincreasedrenewableenergysources,becausenaturalgasandpropanearecombusteddirectlyatthepointofuse(instoves,furnaces,etc.).Theemissionsintensityofnaturalgasconsumptionis,thus,approximatelythesamebetweenthetwoinventoriesandisnotresponsibleforanytrendsinemissions.

Municipal—Streetlights and Traffic Signals Outdoorlights,streetlights,andtrafficsignalsrepresentasmallportionoftheCounty’municipalinventory.Emissionsinthissectorincreasedby143%,however,betweenthepreviousandcurrentinventories.Whileitislikelythatoutdoorlightinghasincreasedintheyearsbetweentheinventories,anincreaseof143%isnotlikelyarealtrend.Thedifferencesinemissionsbetweentheinventoriesislikelypartiallycausedbydifferencesindatasetcompletenessandmethodology.Giventhethorougheffortstakenforthecurrentinventorytocollectacomprehensivesetofdata,itispossiblethatthedatasetusedforthepreviousinventorywasincomplete,andthatthecurrent

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inventorydatasetincludesoutdoorlightingdatanotpreviouslyaccountedfor.Thus,anupwardtrendinoutdoorlightingemissionsisexpected,butthe143%increasebetweenthepreviousandcurrentinventoriesislikelyartificiallyhigh.Itisprobablethattheactualincreaseissmaller,butthisisnotreflectedinthe2006to2015comparisonduetoincompletedataintheFY2006inventory.

On-Road Transportation Community

GHGemissionsfromon‐roadvehicleshavedecreasedbyapproximately27%between2007and2014.AlthoughtheCountyhasexperiencedgrowthinpopulation,jobs,andhousingunitsduringthistimeperiod,thedecreaseinemissionsispartiallyduetoashiftinthevehiclepopulationoftheCounty.TheemissionfactorsusedinthepreviousandcurrentinventoriestodeterminehowmuchGHGsareemittedpermileofvehicletravelarefromtheARB’semissionfactordatabaseprogram(EMFAC)(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardn.d.).TheemissionfactorsinEMFACgenerallydecreasewithtime(i.e.,EMFACassumesthatvehiclesgetcleanerwithtime).Thereasonforthisdecreaseisbecauseoldervehiclesareretiredandreplacedbynewer,cleanervehicleswithimprovedfueleconomy.AcomparisonoftheEMFACemissionfactorsbetween2007and2014showsthat,everythingelsebeingequal,emissionswoulddecreasebyapproximately3%betweentheseyears,whichissubstantiallylessthanthe27%decreaseinemissionsbetweentheinventories.

Adirectcomparisonofvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)betweentheinventoriescannotbemade,becausethe2007inventoryusedtheCounty‐wideSouthCoastAirQualityManagementDistrict(SCAQMD)GHGemissionsforon‐roadsourcesandapportionedemissionstotheunincorporatedCountyusingpopulation.ThecurrentinventoryusesmodeledVMTdataspecifictotheunincorporatedCountyprovidedbyFehrandPeersratherthananentireCountyestimateappliedtotheunincorporatedCountyusingpopulation.ThecurrentVMTanalysisisbasedontheorigin‐destinationapproach,7whichistherecommendedapproachofCalifornia’sRegionalTargetsAdvisoryCommittee.ThepreviousinventoryusedtotalCountyemissionsfromtheEMFACprogram,whichdoesnotconstituteanorigin‐destinationanalysis.Assuch,thepreviousanalysisincludesthrough‐trips,whicharetripsthatneitherbeginnorendintheCounty.Becausethecurrentanalysisdoesnotincludethrough‐trips,consistentwiththestate’srecommendedapproach,VMTandemissionsarelikelyoverestimatedinthepreviousinventoryrelativetothecurrentinventory.Despitethesedifferencesinmethodology,thedownwardtrendinon‐roademissionsisreasonableconsideringtheeffectofoldtonewvehicleturnover.

Municipal—Employee Commute Employeecommuteemissionshaveincreasedbyapproximately81%betweenthepreviousinventoryandnewinventory.Oneofthereasonsforthisincreaseisbecauseofgrowthinthenumberofmunicipalemployees.Thepreviousinventoryquantifiedemissionsforapproximately17,000employees,whilethecurrentinventoryassumesapproximately19,500employees(anincreaseof15%).However,thesubstantialincreaseincommuteemissionsislikelycausedbydifferencesinmethodologies.Afterareviewofthepreviousinventorymethodology,itisunclear

7Anorigin‐destinationanalysisaccountsfortripsinthefollowingmanner:100%oftripsthatstartandendintheCounty,50%ofthetripsthatstartintheCountybutendoutsideoftheCounty,and50%ofthetripsthatstartoutsideoftheCountybutendintheCounty.TripsthatneitherbeginnorendintheCountyareconsideredthrough‐tripsarenotincludedintheCounty’semissionstotal.

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whytheemployeecommuteemissionsareinthe32,500MTCO2erangegiventhenumberofCountyemployees(17,000),andlengthoftheaverageone‐waycommutetrip(17miles).Giventhesenumbers,usingthemethodsusedfortheFY2015inventoryemissionsshouldbeinthe55,000MTCO2erange,whichisconsistentwiththecurrentinventoryemissions(~59,000MTCO2e)afteraccountingforemployeegrowthandslightlydifferenttriplengthassumptions.Thus,thesubstantialincreaseinemployeecommuteemissionsislikelyanartificialtrendduetomethodologydifferencesinthepreviousinventory.

Municipal—Vehicle Fleet EmissionsproducedbyvehiclesintheCounty’svehiclefleethaveincreasedbyapproximately11%betweenthepreviousinventoryandthecurrentinventory,duetogrowthattheCountybetweentheseyears.AlthoughtheCountyhasexperiencedgrowthinthistimeframe,theeffectofimprovedvehiclefueleconomycausesadecreasingeffectonemissionsofapproximately3%.Asdescribedabove,vehiclesbecomecleanerwithtime;thus,astheCountyretiredoldervehiclesandpurchasednewvehicles,theoverallemissionsofthefleettrendsdownward.TheincreaseinCountyvehiclefuelconsumptionbetweenthe2inventoryyearsisprimarycauseoftheupwardtrend,however.

Off-Road Transportation Community

Emissionsresultingfromoff‐roadequipmentintheCountydecreasedbyalmost70%betweenthe2007andcurrentinventories.ThepreviousinventoryreportedthefindingsoftheSCAQMDGHGinventory,which,inturn,usedtheARB’sOFFROADmodeltoquantifyemissions(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2016).However,afterreviewoftheanalysisconductedpreviously,itislikelythatoff‐roademissionswereoverestimatedduetopriormethodologies,whichapportionedCounty‐wideemissionsusingpopulationonly.ThecurrentinventoryalsousesARB’sOFFROADmodeltoquantifyemissions,andapportionsemissionsfromeachequipmenttype(i.e.,construction,industrial,lawn)bytherelevantsocioeconomicmetricfortheCounty(i.e.,population,employment,households)whichisamoreaccuratemethod.Forinstance,lawnequipmentemissionsaremodeledfortheentireCounty(incorporatedplusunincorporated)andareapportionedtotheunincorporatedCountyusingthepercentageofhouseholdsintheunincorporatedareasrelativetothewholeCounty.AgriculturalequipmentemissionswereapportionedtotheunincorporatedCountyusingagriculturalcropdataratherthansocioeconomicdata.

Ifcomparingtwoinventoriesconductedusingidenticalmethodologies,off‐roadequipmentactivitywouldlikelyincreasebetween2007and2014astheCountygrows,butemissionswouldalsoexperienceamoderatedownwardeffectasvehicleefficiencyimprovesandfuelsbecomecleaner.Theresultingtrendinemissionsbetweeninventoriescouldeitherbeupwardordownwarddependingontherateofgrowth.FortheCounty’sinventories,becauseofthediscrepancyinmodelingresultsinthepreviousinventory,thesubstantialdecreaseof70%betweeninventoriesisanartificialtrendandshouldnotbeconsideredtobereflectiveofdecreasedgrowthorsubstantialimprovementsinvehiclesorfuels.DRAFT

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Solid Waste/Landfills Community

Landfillemissionsfrommunicipallyownedlandfillsmorethandoubledbetweenthepreviousinventoryandcurrentinventory.Therearelikelymultiplecausesfortheincreaseinemissions.Morethanhalfoftheemissionsincreasesoccurredatlandfillsthatarecurrentlyopenandwereacceptingwastebetween2006and2015,andasmallerportionoftheincreaseoccursatlandfillsclosedpriorto2006.Becausewastewasdepositedattheopenlandfillsintheyearsbetweeninventories,itisreasonablethatemissionsattheopenlandfillswouldincreaseasthenewwasteundergoesdecayandreleasesadditionalmethanenotcapturedinthepreviousinventory.Atlandfillsclosedpriorto2006,however,emissionswouldbeexpectedtodecreaseinthe2006–2015timeframe,becausenonewwastewouldbeaddedtoincreaseCH4emissions.Thus,theportionofincreasedemissionsattheclosedlandfillsislikelyduetodifferencesindatasetsbetweentheinventories.Boththepreviousandcurrentinventoryusedwaste‐in‐placedataavailableatthetimeoftheanalyses,butitispossiblethatmethodsusedtoquantifywaste‐in–placedataateachlandfillarenotconsistent.Becausethewaste‐in‐placedataarethekeycomponenttothecalculations,anyinconsistenciesinthecollectionorreportingofthisdatawouldresultindivergingemissionsestimatesbetweentheinventories.Indeed,thepreviousinventoryusedwaste‐in‐placedataprovidedbyEPA,whilethecurrentinventoryusesthemostrecentdataprovideddirectlybytheCounty.Thedatasetsarenotconsistentandwerelikelycollectedusingdifferentmethods.Thus,althoughsomeupwardtrendinemissionsisexpectedbecauseofthedepositionofnewwasteatopenlandfills,theincreaseinemissionsatclosedlandfillsisnotexpectedandislikelyrepresentativeofanartificialtrendduetodatainconsistencies.

Landfillemissionsatthenon‐County‐ownedlandfillsareaverysmallportionoftheCounty’scommunitywasteemissions,becausemostoftheCounty’swasteisdepositedatCounty‐ownedlandfills.However,thenon‐County‐ownedlandfillwasteemissionsdecreasedaswellbetweenthetwoinventories,eventhoughtheselandfillsarestillopenandacceptingwastefromtheCounty.

AccordingtotheCaliforniaDepartmentofResourcesandRecycling,residentsandemployeesintheCountygeneratedmorewastein2007(approximately342,000tons)thanin2014(approximately243,000tons),whichappearstocontradictthetrendofincreasingemissionsbetweenthe2007inventoryand2014inventory(CaliforniaDepartmentofResourcesandRecycling2017).However,asdiscussedabove,theemissionsfromthissectorareprimarilyafunctionofthewaste‐in‐placedataattheCounty‐ownedlandfills.Asdiscussedabove,becausethewaste‐in‐placedatasetsarenotconsistent,theincreasingtrendinemissionsisartificial.

Municipal Thetrendinlandfillemissionsatmunicipallyownedlandfillsisdiscussedaboveinthecommunityinventorydiscussion.Thissourceofemissionsisthesameforboththecommunityandmunicipalinventories,sothetrenddiscussionaboveapplieshere.Non‐County‐ownedlandfillsarenotpartofamunicipalinventory,sothediscussionofemissionsatnon‐County‐ownedlandfillsabovedoesnotapplytothemunicipalinventory.DRAFT

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Water Community

EmissionsrelatedtowateruseintheCountyincreasedapproximatelyseven‐fold.SomeofthissubstantialincreaseinemissionsislikelyduetopopulationgrowthintheCounty,butitisprobablethatdifferencesinmethodologyandreportingpracticesaretheprimarycause.Inthepreviousinventory,onlyemissionsassociatedwithimportingwaterintotheCountywereincludedinthewatersector,andtheamountofwaterimportedwasestimatedtobeapproximately7.1billiongallonsin2007.EnergyemissionsfromtreatingimportedwateranddistributingitlocallyafteritenterstheCountywereincludedinthebuildingenergysector,andanyemissionsassociatedwithwatersourcedfromwithintheCountywerealsoincludedinthebuildingenergysector.Inthecurrentinventory,emissionsresultingfromenergyusedtoconvey,treat,anddistributewaterlocallyareincludedinthissectorandnotthebuildingenergysector,whichisconsistentwithcurrentstandardpractice.ThecurrentinventoryincludesbothimportedwaterandwatersourcedwithintheCountyinthissector,andwaterconsumptionisestimatedtobeover32billiongallonsin2014(versus7.1billiongallonsofonlyimportedwaterincludedinthepreviousinventorysector).Includingthewaterconveyance,treatment,andlocaldistributionemissionsinthewatersectorratherthanthebuildingenergysectorisamorepracticalapproachforGHGreductionplanning,becausesuchanapproachmakesiteasierandmoreeffectivetoidentifystrategiesintheappropriatesectortoreduceGHGs.

Emissionsassociatedwithheatingand/orcoolingwaterinhouses,business,etc.areincludedinthebuildingenergysector,becauseitisnotfeasibletoseparatetheseemissionsfrombuildingenergyemissions.

Additionally,thecurrentinventoryusesUrbanWaterManagementPlansfromtheCaliforniaDepartmentofWaterResourcesforeverycommunitywithanapplicableplantoestimateaCounty‐wideaveragepercapitawaterconsumptionrate,whichisthenappliedtotheentireunincorporatedCountypopulation.ThepreviousinventoryusedimportedwaterquantitiesfromtheCounty’sgeneralplan.Becauseofthesubstantialdifferencesinbothmethodologyandreporting,thesubstantialincreaseinwateremissionsbetween2007and2014islikelyanartificialtrend.Whileitisprobablethatwateremissionsincreasedbetweenthese2years,waterconsumptionoremissionsintensitydidnotlikelyincreasebyafactorof7giventhatthepreviousinventoryincludedonlyimportedwaterinthissectorwhilethecurrentinventoryincludesallestimatedwaterconsumptioninthissector.

Municipal—Water and Wastewater Pumping Equipment Waterandwastewaterpumpingequipmentemissionshavedecreasedby22%betweenthepreviousandcurrentinventories.TheseemissionsaretheemissionsthatresultfromtheelectricityandnaturalgasconsumedinpumpingequipmentownedbytheCounty.BoththepreviousandcurrentinventoriescollecteddatafromtheCounty’sSpecialDistrictsdepartment,whichisresponsibleforoperatingtheCounty‐ownedwaterandsewerpumpingequipment.ItisprobablethattheprimarycauseofthedecreaseinemissionsisduetoincreasedrenewableenergyproductioninFY2015comparedtoFY2006.Asdescribedforothersectors,SCE,hasincreaseditsrenewableenergyportfolio,whichhasledtolower‐emittingelectricity.Thus,althoughtheCounty’spumpingequipmentmayhaveprocessedmorewaterin2015than2006,theintensityoftheelectricityandtheassociatedemissionshavedecreased.

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Giventhescaleofthedecreaseinemissions(22%)relativetothedecreaseinGHGintensityoftheSCEelectricityemissionfactors(10%;seediscussionforBuildingEnergy),itispossibleothermethodologicalfactorsareinfluencingtheemissionstrendaswell.ThepreviousinventoryreportnotedthatdatafromtheSpecialDistrictfacilitiesmayincludeelectricityassociatedwithnon‐pumpinguses,becauseitwasnotpossibletodisaggregatetheSpecialDistrictsdataanyfurther.Thereportalsonotesthatpumpingislikelythedominantsourceofenergyandnon‐pumpingenergyvaluesarelikelysmall,however.Consequently,itispossiblethepreviousinventoryincludednon‐pumping‐relatedenergyinthissector,whilethecurrentinventorydoesnotincludethissourceofemissionsinthissector.Thetrendinwaterandwastewaterpumpingequipment,then,islikelydownwardtosomeextentgiventheimprovementsinSCE’srenewableenergyportfolio,butpartofthedownwardtrendmaybeduetomethodologyordatacollectiondiscrepanciesbetweentheinventories.

Municipal—Water Consumption in Municipal Facilities WaterconsumptionemissionsinCounty‐ownedfacilitieswerenotincludedinthepreviousinventory.Thissourceofemissionsisincludedinthecurrentinventory,usingthesamemethodsasdescribedpreviouslyforthecommunityinventory.UsingwaterconsumptionestimatesatallCountyfacilitiesprovidedbytheCountydepartments,municipalfacilitywateremissionswerequantified.Becausethissourceofemissionswasnotincludedinthepreviousinventory,thereisnoemissionstrend.

Wastewater Treatment Community

Between2007and2014,wastewatertreatmentemissionsincreasedsubstantially,byapproximately130%.ThelikelyreasonforthislargechangeinemissionsistheresultofmethodologicaldifferencesandnotchangesinpopulationorthenatureofwastewatertreatmentintheCounty.Inthepreviousinventory,statewidewastewateremissionsfromtheARB’sGHGinventorywerescaledtotheCountyusingtheCounty’sproportionofpopulationrelativetothestate’spopulation.ThecurrentinventoryusesthemostrecentmethodsfromtheICLEI2013CommunityProtocol,which,whilealsopopulation‐based,accountsforconditionsspecifictoalocaljurisdiction.Thestatewideemissions,usedinthepreviousinventory,coverawiderangeofcommunitiesandwastewatertreatmentfacilitiesandisthusnecessarilybroad.Further,apportioningstatewideemissionstotheCountyusingpopulationassumesthattheCounty’swastewatertreatmentfacilitiesaresimplyrepresentedbythestatewideaverageintermsofemissions.Inactuality,someareashavehigherorloweremissionsintensitywastewatertreatmentfacilitiesthanthestatewideaverage.

TheCounty’swastewateremissionsmaybehigherthanthestatewideaverageduetoahighproportionofseptictankusersintheruralareasoftheCounty.Thiseffectwouldnotbeaccountedforinatop‐downapproachusingstatewideemissions,aswasdoneinthepreviousinventory,butisaccountedforusingtheICLEI2013CommunityProtocolmethods.

Additionally,asdiscussedpreviously,thepreviousinventoryonlyincludesfugitiveemissionsandnotbuildingenergyemissionsfromwastewatertreatmentplantsinthissector.Becausethecurrentinventoryincludesbothfugitiveandwastewatertreatmentplantbuildingenergyemissions,theemissionsreportingbetweentheinventoriesarenotconsistent.

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Becausethescopeofthemethodsusedforthepreviousinventoryissubstantiallydifferentthanthescopeofthemethodsusedforthecurrentinventory,andbecausethereportingofemissionsisnotequivalent,theapparentupwardtrendinwastewateremissionsislikelyanartificialone.Wastewatertreatmentemissionsarehighlydependentonpopulation,sothereislikelyarealupwardtrendinemissionsbetween2007and2014.Theextentofthatpopulation‐driventrendisnotdiscerniblewhencomparingthetwoinventories,however.

Municipal WastewateremissionsforwastewatergeneratedbyCountyemployeesinCounty‐ownedfacilitieswasnotincludedinthepreviousinventory,becausesufficientinformationwasnotavailableatthetime.Thissourceofemissionsisincludedinthecurrentinventory,usingthesamemethodsasdescribedforthecommunityinventory.UsingtheICLEI2013CommunityProtocolmethodsandthenumberofCountyemployees,municipalfacilitywastewateremissionswerequantified.Becausethissourceofemissionswasn’tincludedinthepreviousinventory,thereisnoemissionstrend.

Refrigerants Community

Refrigerantemissionswerenotincludedinthepreviousinventory,becausesufficientinformationwasnotavailableatthetime.Thissourceofemissionsisincludedinthecurrentcommunityinventory,but,becausethissourceofemissionswasnotincludedinthepreviousinventory,thereisnoemissionstrend.

Municipal Refrigerantemissionswerenotincludedinthepreviousinventory,becausesufficientinformationwasnotavailableatthetime.Thissourceofemissionsisincludedinthecurrentmunicipalinventory,but,becausethissourceofemissionswasnotincludedinthepreviousinventory,thereisnoemissionstrend.

Agriculture Community

Agricultureemissionsexperienceda6%increasebetweenthe2007inventoryandthecurrentinventory.Theprimaryreasonfortheincreaseinagricultureemissionsisduetomethodologicaldifferencesbetweentheinventoriesratherthanachangeinagriculturalactivity.ThepreviousinventorysummarizedtheemissionssourcesincludedintheSCAQMDGHGinventory,whereasthecurrentinventoryusesmethodsfromtheICLEI2013Communityprotocol.DatasetsforbothinventoriesincludeinformationfromtheCountyDepartmentofAgriculture.However,itislikelythecurrentinventoryincludesamorecomprehensiveevaluationoflivestockoperations,becausethepreviousinventoryuseddatafromtheCountyagriculturalcommissionerin1990andforecastedto2007usingagriculturegrowthprojectionsfromtheSouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments(SCAG).Incontrast,thecurrentinventoryusesdataprovidedbytheCountyagriculturalcommissionerfortheactualinventoryyear(2014).Thus,usinga1990datasetandforecastingversususingdatafrom2014isthelikelycauseofthedifferencesintheagricultureemissions.

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However,comparingthecropreportsin2007and2014fromtheCountyagriculturalcommissionershowsthatthenumberoflivestockintheCountyincreasedbyapproximately7%between2007and2014(SanBernardinoCountyDepartmentofAgriculture/WeightsandMeasures2007,2014).Whilethelivestockpopulationforsomeanimalsdecreasedandothersincreased,thetrendintotalanimalsincreasedby7%.Giventhattheincreaseinlivestockanimalsissimilartothetotalincreaseinagricultureemissions,thesmallupwardtrendinemissionsmaybearealisticreflectionofhowagricultureactivityhaschangedintheCountybetween2007and2014.

However,becauseofthedifferencesinmethodologyandbecauselivestockareonlyonecomponentoftheagriculturesector,itcannotbedeterminedwithcertaintywhattrendagricultureemissionshavefollowedbetween2007and2014.WhiletheCountyhasgrownbetweentheseyears,theeffectsoftheeconomicdowntownandsubsequentrecoveryduringthistimeframemakeitdifficulttoestimatehowtheagricultureindustryanditsGHGemissionshavebeenaffected.Thus,anyassessmentofemissionstrendsbetweentheinventoriesshouldbelimited.

Stationary Sources and Cement Production Community

Stationarysourceemissionsincreasedbyapproximately58%overallbetweenthe2007inventoryandcurrentinventory.Theemissionsfromnon‐cementstationarysourcesinthecurrentinventoryaremorethan2MTCO2ehigherthanthepreviousinventory,whiletheemissionsfromcementsourcesare15%lowerinthecurrentinventorythanthepreviousinventory.Theincreaseinemissionsfromnon‐cementsourcesispartiallytheresultofanincreaseinstationarysourceactivityinthe2007–2014timeframeastheCountyexperiencedgrowthineconomicactivity.However,thereareotherreasonsfortheincrease,whicharerelatedtodifferencesindatasetsandmethodologybetweenthetwoinventories.ThepreviousinventoryusedfuelconsumptiondatafromtheSCAQMDGHGinventorytoestimateemissionsfornon‐cementsourcesandusedclinker8consumptiondatatoestimateemissionsforcementsources.Fornon‐cementsources,thepreviousinventorymethodsincludedscalingthetotalcountywide(incorporatedplusunincorporated)emissionstotheunincorporatedCountyonlybymultiplyingbytheproportionofunincorporatedCountypopulation.Thisapproachwasidentifiedasadatalimitationinthepreviousinventory,becausepopulationandstationarysourceactivityarenotnecessarilycorrelated.ThecurrentinventorymethodsusethedirectreportingemissionsdatafromtheARB.OnlyemissionssourcesinunincorporatedCountyzipcodeswereincludedfromtheARBdata.

Thenon‐cementsourceemissionsinthecurrentinventoryaredirectlyreportedtotheARB,soitislikelythisisanaccuraterepresentationofemissionsintheCounty.ItispossibletheSCAQMDdatasetforthepreviousinventorymaynothaveincludedallsourcesintheCounty,orthemethodofscalingusingpopulationwasnotanaccurateapproach.Alternatively,oneormoreverylargesourcesofemissionscouldhavebegunoperatinginthetimeframebetweentheinventories,resultingintheverylargeincreaseinemissionsobserved.Eitherway,cautionshouldbeusedwhencomparingtheemissionstrendbetweeninventories,becausethetrendobservedfrom2007–2014maybeartificiallyinflatedduetodatasetormethodologydiscrepanciesorskewedbyoneormorelargeemissionssources.

8Clinkerisaningredientusedincementproduction.

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Cementsourceemissionsdecreasedmodestlybetweentheinventoryyears,byapproximately15%.Thereasonsforthisdecreasearelikelypartiallyduetothedifferencesinmethodologydescribedabove(clinkerconsumptionversusARB‐reportedemissions)butcouldalsobetheresultofadeclineincementproductionintheCounty.BasedoncementproductiondatafromtheU.S.GeologicalSurvey,cementshipmentsfromSouthernCaliforniadecreasedbyapproximately33%between2007and2014(U.S.GeologicalSurvey2010,2017).Thus,itislikelythetrendincementsourceemissionsisanegativeonebetween2007and2014.However,themagnitudeofthatdownwardtrendwithintheCountycannotbedeterminedwithcertainty,becauseofthedifferencesinmethodsbetweenthetwoinventories.

BecausetheseemissionsarelargelynotwithintheCounty’sjurisdictionalcontrol,thetrendsexperiencedinstationarysourceandcementproductionemissionsisnotacriticalcomponentfortheCounty’sGHGplanningefforts.

Residential Fires and Cooking/Residential Fuel Use Community

ThepreviousinventoryincludedGHGemissionsfrommiscellaneoussources,namelymethaneemissionsgeneratedbyfiresandcookingatresidences,andthesesourcesofemissionswereaminorcomponentofthepreviousinventory(approximately0.01%).Toquantifyemissions,thepreviousinventoryusedcountywideestimatesforfireandcookingemissionsandscaledtotheunincorporatedareasusingpopulation.CookingemissionsatresidentialusesarenottypicallyincludedinGHGinventoriesasaseparatesector(naturalgasandelectricity‐basedcookingareincludedinthebuildingenergysector),becausetherearelimiteddatasourcesforoutdoorcooking,andsuchemissionsareunlikelytobealargesourceofemissions.Thecurrentinventoryfocusesonresidentialfueluseforheatingpurposes,suchaskerosene,LPG,andwood,asdataonhomeheatingsourcesaregenerallyavailable.Thus,thesectorofthepreviousinventorydoesnotoverlapcompletelywiththesectorofthecurrentinventory.Nevertheless,bothinventoriesincludenon‐biogenicemissionsfromwoodburning,butthecurrentinventoryalsoincludeskeroseneandLPG.Thus,theincreaseof230%isnotarealistictrendbutisonecausedbydifferencesinmethodology.Thissectorrepresentslessthan0.05%ofbothinventories,however,andisaverysmallcontributorofemissions.

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Chapter 4 Recommendations

AsdiscussedthroughoutChapter3,KeyGreenhouseGasInventoryTrends,therearesubstantialdifferencesinmethodologiesanddatasourcesbetweenthe2007and2014communityinventoryandtheFY2006andFY2015municipalinventory.SincetheCountyneedsanaccuratecomparisonofchangesinGHGemissionsovertimeinordertoevaluateprogresstowardtheCounty’sGHGadoptedreductiontargets,ICFrecommendsthefollowing:

1. Preparearevised2007communityinventoryusing2014inventorymethodsandupdateddatasetsasfeasibleandusetherevised2007inventoryasthebaselineforassessingprogresstowardmeetingtheCounty’sadoptedcommunityGHGreductiontarget.TheCountymaybeabletouseexistingdatafromtheSanBernardinoAssociatedGovernments(SANBAG)(nowSanBernardinoCountyTransportationAuthority[SBCTA])RegionalGHGReductionPlanwhichincludedsomeCountydatainitsinventoryingefforts,particularlyinrelationtoVMTfromtheSCAGregionaltraveldemandmodel.

2. PreparearevisedFY2006municipalinventoryusingFY2015inventorymethodsandupdateddatasets,asfeasible,andusetherevisedFY2006inventoryasthebaselineforassessingprogresstowardmeetingtheCounty’sadoptedmunicipalGHGreductiontarget.

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Chapter 5 References

CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.Nodate.EMFACWebDatabase.Available:https://www.arb.ca.gov/emfac/.

CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.2016.MobileSourceEmissionsInventory–Categories–Off‐RoadMotorVehicles.Available:https://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/categories.htm#offroad_motor_vehicles.

CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.2017.CaliforniaGreenhouseGasInventory–2017Edition.Lastupdated:June6,2017.Available:https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm.Accessed:June8,2017.

CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,CaliforniaClimateActionRegistry,ICLEI‐LocalGovernmentsforSustainability,andtheClimateRegistry.2010.LocalGovernmentOperationsProtocolfortheQuantificationandReportingofGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventories.Version1.1.May.Available:https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/protocols/localgov/pubs/lgo_protocol_v1_1_2010‐05‐03.pdf.

CaliforniaDepartmentofResourcesandRecycling.2017.DisposalReportingSystem:Single‐yearCountywideOriginDetail–SanBernardinoCounty2007and2014.Available:http://www.calrecycle.ca.gov/lgcentral/Reports/DRS/Origin/WFOrgin.aspx.

CenterforClimateandEnergySolutions.2011.TheGreenhouseEffect.Available:http://www.c2es.org/facts‐figures/basics/greenhouse‐effect.Accessed:May22,2017.

Cook,J.,D.Nuccitelli,S.Green,M.Richardson,B.Winkler,R.Painting,R.Way,P.Jacobs,andA.Skuce.2013.QuantifyingtheConsensusonAnthropogenicGlobalWarmingintheScientificLiterature.EnvironmentalResearchLetters8(2):024024.

Hicks,Brock,SpatialAnalystandPlanner,CalthorpeAnalytics.EmailtoCoryMatsui(ICF)providingsocioeconomicdatafortheCounty.

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.2013.AnthropogenicandNaturalRadiativeForcing.In:ClimateChange2013:ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Available:http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf.Accessed:May22,2017.

LocalGovernmentsforSustainabilityUSA(ICLEI).2013.U.S.CommunityProtocolforAccountingandReportingofGreenhouseGasEmissions,Version1.1.July.Available:http://icleiusa.org/publications/us‐community‐protocol/.

SanBernardinoCounty.2011.GreenhouseGasEmissionsReductionPlan.Available:http://www.sbcounty.gov/Uploads/lus/GreenhouseGas/FinalGHGFull.pdf.

SanBernardinoCountyDepartmentofAgriculture/WeightsandMeasures.2007.CropandLivestockReport.Available:http://cms.sbcounty.gov/Portals/13/CropReports/2007CropReport.pdf?ver=2010‐07‐09‐122426‐810.Accessed:August1,2017.

References

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SanBernardinoCountyDepartmentofAgriculture/WeightsandMeasures.2014.AnnualCropReport2014.Available:http://cms.sbcounty.gov/Portals/13/CropReports/2014CropReport.pdf?ver=2015‐07‐16‐090201‐963.Accessed:August1,2017.

SouthernCaliforniaEdison.2014.PowerContentLabel.Available:https://www.sce.com/wps/wcm/connect/a268aec1‐0fc4‐423e‐9476‐e3ac98ec7ede/2014_PCL.pdf?MOD=AJPERES.Accessed:May24,2017.

SouthernCaliforniaEdison.2015.CorporateResponsibilityReport.Available:https://www.sce.com/wps/wcm/connect/c0fceef5‐e04a‐4287‐8301‐8e66e3e5fbac/2014_Corporate+Responsibility+Report_FINAL+single‐page.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&ContentCache=NONE.Accessed:May24,2017.

StanCOG2005asreportedbyFehr&Peers2012

U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.2017.InventoryofU.S.GreenhouseGasEmissionsandSinks.LastUpdated:April14.Available:https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory‐us‐greenhouse‐gas‐emissions‐and‐sinks.Accessed:May22,2017.

U.S.GeologicalSurvey.2010.2007MineralsYearbook.Available:https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cement/myb1‐2007‐cemen.pdf.Accessed:August23,2017.

U.S.GeologicalSurvey.2017.2014MineralsYearbook.Available:https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cement/myb1‐2014‐cemen.pdf.Accessed:August23,2017.

San Bernardino Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update A-1 October 2017

Introduction Thisappendixsummarizesthedatasourcesandgeneralmethodsthatwereusedtodevelopthecommunityandmunicipalgreenhousegas(GHG)inventoriesforSanBernardinoCounty.Thiswillbereferredtoasthe“inventory”inthisappendix.

ThisappendixdescribesthegeneralmethodsfordevelopingthecommunityandmunicipalGHGemissionsforeachemissionssector.

Inventory Update Year – 2014 and Fiscal Year 2015 TheinventoryupdateyearforthecommunityGHGinventoryis2014,whiletheinventoryupdateyearforthemunicipalGHGinventoryisfiscalyear(FY)2015.FY2015beganinJuly2014andendedinJune2015.Theseyearswerechosen,becauseitwasanticipatedthatcompleteornearlycompleteactivitydatawouldbeavailableforallofthesectorsintheinventoryforthistimeframe.Socioeconomicdatafor2014(includingpopulation,employment,andhousing)wasprovidedbyCalthorpeAnalytics.Forsectorswhere2014orFY2015datawasnotavailable,appropriatescalingmethodologiesweredevelopedtoprojectdatatotheinventoryyears.

Inventory Protocol The2013U.S.CommunityProtocolforAccountingandReportingofGreenhouseGasEmissions(ICLEI‐LocalGovernments,2013)wasusedtoquantifycommunityemissionswhereverapplicableandappropriate.TheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard’s(ARB)LocalGovernmentsOperationsProtocol(LGOP)wasusedtodevelopthemunicipalinventory(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardet.al.2010).

Inventory Differences Overview Thefollowingsectionsummarizesthekeydifferencesindatasources,methods,andemissionssourcesbetweenthepreviouscommunityandmunicipalinventoriesandthecurrentcommunityandmunicipalinventories.TablesA‐1andA‐2outlinethereasonsfordifferencesbetweentheinventoriesforeachsector.DRAFT

Table A-1. Community Inventory Differences Summary Table

Emissions Sector Reasons for Inventory Differences

Building Energy

Increased renewable energy sources. Building energy efficiency improvements. Some water and wastewater related energy emissions were included in this sector in the previous inventory. In this

inventory, water and wastewater emissions are included their respective sectors to the extent possible. Current inventory includes small amount of electricity from an additional provider not included in the previous

inventory (City of Needles electric utility customers located in unincorporated County)

On-Road Transportation

Vehicles become cleaner with time Retirement of older, higher emitting vehicles Previous inventory used Countywide data and scaled to the unincorporated County using population Current inventory uses specific data to the unincorporated County

Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment Methodology differences. Previous emissions estimate is likely an overestimate.

Solid Waste/Landfills

Differences in datasets are likely the reason for the large increase: o Previous inventory used U.S. EPA landfill waste data o Current inventory uses landfill waste data provided by County.

Current inventory includes two additional landfills that were not included in the previous inventory (Cajon and Heaps Peak landfills)

EPA waste data is lower than County’s, which explains the increase in emissions.

Water Conveyance/Water Use

Previous inventory includes any imported water energy in this sector (i.e. the energy required to move water from its source to the unincorporated County border). All other water energy is included in Building Energy sector.

Current inventory includes all water-related energy in this sector to the extent possible (i.e. water conveyance, water pre-treatment, local distribution).

Wastewater Treatment

Previous inventory only includes fugitive emissions in this sector (i.e. energy consumed at the wastewater treatment plants is not included in this sector). Energy emissions for treating wastewater are included in Building Energy sector.

Current inventory includes all wastewater-related emissions in this sector to the extent possible (fugitive + energy emissions).

Agriculture Emissions are similar, but there are differences in methodology DRAFT

Previous inventory used 1990 agriculture data and projected to 2007 using SCAG population data. Current inventory uses County’s 2014 crop report

Refrigerants Insufficient data were available to include this sector at the time of the previous inventory.

Residential Fuel Use Previous inventory only includes wood burning Current inventory includes wood burning, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas consumed in residences

County Total Overall, emissions have decreased due to decreases in the largest 2 sectors (on-road and building energy), despite

large increases in other, smaller sectors (water, wastewater, waste).

Stationary Sources Previous inventory used South Coast AQMD Countywide data and scaled to the unincorporated areas using population Current inventory uses direct emissions provided by CA Air Resources Board, by zip code

Cement Production Previous inventory used clinker production as a proxy for emissions Current inventory uses direct emissions provided by ARB, by zip code and emissions source category

Table A-2. Municipal Inventory Differences Summary Table

Building Energy

Increased renewable energy sources. Building energy efficiency improvements. The previous inventory and current inventory include data from the same County departments. A comprehensive

building by building consistency check could not be conducted, however.

Streetlights and Traffic Signals Differences in datasets. Current inventory likely includes more comprehensive data.

Vehicle Fleet

Vehicles become cleaner with time Retirement of older, higher emitting vehicles Current inventory includes additional vehicles that were purchased between FY 2006 and FY 2015

Solid Waste/Landfills Differences in datasets are likely the reason for the large increase: Previous inventory used U.S. EPA landfill waste data DRAFT

Current inventory uses landfill waste data provided by County. Current inventory includes two additional landfills that were not included in the previous inventory (Cajon and Heaps

Peak landfills) EPA waste data is lower than County’s, which explains the increase in emissions.

Employee Commute Methodology differences. Previous emissions estimate is likely an underestimate. Current inventory includes additional County employees hired between FY 2006 and FY 2015.

Water & Wastewater Pumping Equipment

Increased renewable energy sources. Differences in datasets: previous inventory dataset may have included some non-pumping energy that couldn’t be

subtracted out

Water Consumption The previous inventory did not include this source, which includes energy emissions associated with water

consumption in County facilities (by non-County owned equipment).

Wastewater Treatment Insufficient data were available to include this sector at the time of the previous inventory.

Municipal Total

Overall, emissions have increased, which is primarily driven by the increase in waste/landfill emissions. As discussed for that sector, it is likely that the increase is due to differences in datasets between the inventories. The current inventory uses data provided directly by the County, while the previous inventory used data available at the time from the U.S. EPA.

Emission Sectors Thefollowingsectionincludesdetailedmethodsandsupportinginformationfortheinventory.Thissectionisorganizedbysector.Foreachsector,thefollowinginformationisprovided:

Overview:abriefdescriptionoftheemissioncalculation(s).

MethodsUsedinPreviousInventory:abriefdescriptionofthemethodsusedintheCounty’s2007communityandFY2006municipalGHGinventories.

DataandModels:alistofdataandmodelsthatwereusedtocalculateemissions.

InventoryMethods:thedetailedmethodologyforcalculatingemissionsforboththecommunityandmunicipalinventoriesfor2014andFY2015.

Building Energy (Community and Municipal), Streetlights and Traffic Signals (Municipal), and Water and Wastewater Pumping Equipment (Municipal)

Overview ThebuildingenergysectorincludesGHGemissionsfromelectricityandnaturalgasconsumptionforresidential,commercial,industrial,institutional,andmunicipalbuildingsintheCounty.Althoughseparatesectors,streetlightsandtrafficsignals,andwaterandwastewaterpumpingequipmentarealsodiscussedhere,becausethemethodologiesarethesameasthebuildingenergymethodology.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory TheCounty’spreviousinventoryforthebuildingenergysectoruseddataprovidedbytheutilityprovidersintheCounty(forcommunity)andbytheCountyitself(formunicipal).Theenergyconsumptiondata(electricityandnaturalgas)fortheCountywasmultipliedbyanelectricityemissionsfactorforSouthernCaliforniaEdison.NaturalgasconsumptionwasmultipliedbyGHGemissionfactorsrepresentativeofnaturalgas.Similarly,municipalbuildingenergyemissionsfromCounty‐ownedbuildingswerequantifiedusingthesameenergygenerationemissionfactors.Emissionsfrommunicipalstreetlightingandtrafficsignals,andwaterpumpingweredeterminedusingthesamemethods.

Data and Models for Current Inventory

Community Electricityconsumption(kWh)providedbySouthernCaliforniaEdison(SCE),BearValley

Electric(BVE)forresidential,commercial,industrial,institutional,andotherbuildings

Numberofcustomersbytype(i.e.residential,commercial)intheCityofNeedlesElectricUtilityterritory

Naturalgasconsumption(therms)providedbySoCalGasCompanyandSouthwestGasforresidential,commercial,industrial,institutional,andotherbuildings

UtilityspecificelectricityGHGemissionfactorsforSCEandregionalaverageemissionfactorsfromtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(U.S.EPA)forBVE,CityofNeedles,andformethane(CH4)andnitrousoxide(N2O)(EdisonInternational2015;U.S.EPA2014)

GHGemissionfactorsfornaturalgas(ClimateRegistry2016)

Municipal ElectricityandnaturalconsumptionfromthefollowingCountydepartmentsandotherentities

forallownedandleasedbuildingsassociatedwithCountyoperations:SpecialDistricts(dataforSpecialDistrictfacilities,streetlights/trafficlights,andwaterandwastewaterpumpingequipmentownedbytheCounty),CountyLibraries,RealEstateServices,ArrowheadRegionalMedicalCenter,andSoCalGasCompany.

InadditiontotheelectricityGHGfactorsforcommunity,electricityGHGemissionfactorsforregionalaverageemissionfactorsfromthe(U.S.EPA)forCityofColtonElectricUtilityandNevada(U.S.EPA2017).

Inventory Methods for the Current Inventory CommunityandMunicipal:Communityenergydatawasobtainedindividuallythroughtheelectricityandnaturalgasproviders,asindicatedabove.MunicipalbuildingenergydatawasobtainedthroughtherelevantCountydepartments.TheSpecialDistrictsdepartmentprovidedenergyconsumptiondatafortheSpecialDistrictsfacilities;thestreetlightsandtrafficlightsoperatedbytheCounty;andthewaterandwastewaterpumpingequipmentownedbytheCounty.Althoughstreetlights,trafficlights,andpumpingequipmentownedbytheCountyareincludedinseparatesectors,themethodologytocalculateemissionsforthesesourcesareessentiallyidenticaltothebuildingenergysector,becausethecalculationinvolvesmultiplyingelectricitybyutilityemissionfactors.Thus,themethodologyforthesesectorsisnotdiscussedfurther.

CO2emissionsfromelectricityprovidedbyallutilitiesthatservetheCountywerecalculatedbymultiplyingelectricityusebytheutility‐specificCO2emissionfactorsfordeliveredelectricity,ascitedabove.The2014emissionfactorsrepresenttheemissionsrelatedtoelectricitydeliveriesintheCountyin2014(andFY2015forthemunicipalinventory)1.Methane(CH4)andnitrousoxide(N2O)emissionsforbothutilitieswerecalculatedusingU.S.EPAeGRIDyear2014emissionfactorsfortheCAMX/WECCregion(thisregionrepresentselectricityprimarilygeneratedinCalifornia,andthelatestyearofemissionfactorcurrentlyavailableis2014.).

Thecommunityinventoryincludesemissionsforresidential,commercial,industrial,andinstitutionalbuildings.Themunicipalinventoryincludesemissionsforallmunicipalbuildings(thosethatareownedandthoseinwhichtheCountyleasesspace).Wateruseandwastewater‐treatmentrelatedenergyusewassubtractedfromthebuildingenergysectortoavoiddoublecounting.Theenergyemissionsassociatedwithwaterandwastewaterareincludedintherespectivesectors.

1ThetwoprimaryemissionfactorsusedintheanalysisareforSCEandeGRID,whichareequalto573and569poundsofcarbondioxideequivalentpermegawatthourin2014,respectively.

Transmissionanddistribution(T&D)electricitylosses,whichoccurbetweenthepointsofgenerationandthepointsofconsumption,werealsoincludedinthebuildingenergysector.TheT&Dlossvalueusedintheinventorywas4.79%(U.S.EPA2017).TheCAMX/WECCemissionfactorscitedabovewereusedtoestimateGHGemissionsforthiselectricity.

GHGemissionsfromnaturalgasconsumptionwerecalculatedbymultiplyingthenaturalgasconsumptiondatabyemissionfactorsfromtheClimateRegistry,forbothcommunityandmunicipalenergy.Thestreetlightsandtrafficsignalscomponentofthemunicipalinventorydoesnotinvolveanynaturalgasconsumption.

On-Road Transportation (Community); Vehicle Fleet and Employee Commute (Municipal)

Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsfromfuelcombustedbyon‐roadvehicles.Forthemunicipalinventory,thisincludesCountyvehiclefleetemissionsandemployeecommutes.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory Community:The2007inventoryusedthecountywideSCAQMDGHGinventoryemissionsforon‐roadsourcesandapportionedemissionstotheunincorporatedCountyusingpopulation.EmissionswerebasedontheEMFACprogramassumptions,whichincludesallVMTintheCounty(includingpass‐throughtrips).

Municipal:TheCounty’smunicipalon‐roadtransportationemissions,whichincludesemployeecommuteandvehiclefleetemissions,weredeterminedusingemployeecommutesurveydatafromandvehiclefleetfuelconsumptiondatafromprovidedbytheCounty.Emissionswerequantifiedusinggasolineanddieselfuelemissionfactors(forvehiclefleetemissions)andon‐roadgramsofCO2permileemissionfactors(foremployeecommuteemissions).

Data and Models for Current Inventory TrafficmodelresultsfortheCommunityinventoryprovidedbyFehrandPeersfor2014.The

trafficmodelusedtheorigin‐destinationmethodforVMTfortheunincorporatedCounty.ThismethodassignstheVMTtotheCountyusingthefollowingprotocol:100%oftripsthatstartandendintheCounty,50%ofthetripsthatstartintheCountybutendoutsideoftheCounty,and50%ofthetripsthatstartoutsideoftheCountybutendintheCounty.Nothroughtripsareincluded.

ARB’sEMFAC2014modelemissionfactors2

Totalnumberofmunicipalemployees(19,460)

Employeecommutedataformunicipalemployees,conductedin2015

2TheEmissionsFactor(EMFAC)modelisatransportationmodelissuedbytheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.Itincludesasetofemissionfactorsthatrepresentthelocalvehiclefleet,speeds,andenvironmentalconditionsthatcanbeusefulinperformingproject‐levelairqualitymodeling

Fuelconsumptionbyfueltype(diesel,gas,etc.)forallCounty‐ownedvehiclesandotherequipment(i.e.diesel‐poweredgenerators)forFY2015providedbyCountyFleetManagementdepartment

Fuelemissionsfactors(ClimateRegistry2016)

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory Community:Quantificationofon‐roadtransportationemissionsfollowedthe2013CommunityProtocol.CommunityVMTdatawasprovidedbyFehrandPeersfor2014.

TodeterminepassengerVMTfortheCounty,FehrandPeersapportionedone‐halfofthetripdistanceforanytripwithanoriginordestinationwithintheCounty.Thiseliminatesapportioningthrough‐tripsonfreewaysormajorarterialstotheCounty,whileaddingregionaltrafficburdentolandusesgeneratingtripsona50/50split.ThisisthecurrentrecommendedapproachoftheState’sRegionalTargetsAdvisoryCommittee(RTAC)andprovidesabetteraccountingofVMTassociatedwithlandusejurisdictionthanapproachesthatapportionVMTonapro‐ratashareoronthebasisofVMTthatoccurswithintheboundariesofajurisdiction.ThisapproachcanalsohelptorevealpotentialdifferencesinVMTgenerationthatcanbeusefulduringfuturelanduseandGHGreductionplanning.TheEMFAC2014modelwasusedtodetermineemissionfactors,andthosefactorsweremultipliedbyVMTtoquantifyGHGemissions.

Municipal:MunicipalGHGemissionsincludeemployeecommuteandvehiclefleetemissions.Employeecommuteemissionswereestimatedusingemployeecommutesurveydataconductedat10CountysitesthatareconsideredregulatedsitesbytheSCAQMD(siteswithmorethan250employees).Thesurveyaskedmunicipalemployeeshowtheygettoandfromwork(i.e.drivealone,carpool,motorcycle,bus,walk,bicycle,telecommute).Theresponsesfromallthesiteswereaggregatedandcomputedintopercentages(i.e.86%ofallsurveyedemployeesdrovealone,0.5%tookthebus),andthepercentageswerethenappliedtoallCountyemployees.Aone‐waycommutetripdistanceof16mileswasassumed,basedonsurveyresponses.EmployeecommuteVMTwasthencalculatedbasedontheaforementionedassumptions,andVMTwasmultipliedbytheappropriateemissionfactorsfromtheEMFACmodel.

VehiclefleetemissionswereestimatedusingtheCounty’smostrecentfuelconsumptiondata,mileagedata,andothervehiclefleetdata,providedbytheCountyFleetManagementdepartment.FuelconsumptiondatawasmultipliedbytheappropriatefuelemissionfactorsfromtheClimateRegistry(ClimateRegistry2016).

Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment (Community Only) Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsfromsmalloff‐roadequipment(e.g.,recreational,harborcraft,railyard,privateairport,lawnandgarden,agricultural,commercial,andindustrialequipment).

Methods Used in Previous Inventory ThepreviousinventoryreportedthefindingsoftheSCAQMDGHGinventory,which,inturn,usedtheARB’sOFFROADmodeltoquantifyemissions(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2016).County‐wideemissionswereapportionedtotheunincorporatedareasusingpopulation.

Data and Models for Current Inventory ARB’sOFFROADmodel

CountysocioeconomicdataprovidedbyCalthorpeAnalytics

AgriculturalacreageprovidedbyPlaceWorks

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory Community:The2013CommunityProtocolrecommendsusingtheU.S.EPA’sNONROADmodel,butthisanalysisusesARB’sOFFROADmodelbecauseitismorespecifictoCaliforniacommunitiesthantheNONROADmodel.

ARB’sOFFROADmodelprovidesestimatesforemissionsatthecountylevelforavarietyofoff‐roadequipmenttypes,includingconstructionequipment,lawnandgardenequipment,airportgroundsupportequipment,andrecreationalequipment.Thisanalysiswasbasedonthemodel’sdefaultassumptionofannualhoursofoperationforallequipmentintheCounty.Emissionsresultingfromtheuseofagriculturalequipmentwereincludedunderthissector.

Emissionwereapportionedfromeachequipmenttype(i.e.construction,industrial,lawn)bytherelevantsocioeconomicmetricfortheCounty(i.e.population,employment,households).Forinstance,lawnequipmentemissionsaremodeledfortheentireCounty(incorporatedplusunincorporated)andareapportionedtotheunincorporatedCountyusingthepercentageofhouseholdsintheunincorporatedareasrelativetothewholeCounty.Householdswereassumedtobethemostrelevantmetrictolawnequipment.Forotherequipment,suchasconstructionorindustrialequipment,employmentdatawasusedtoscaleemissions,asthesemetricsaremostrelevanttothoseequipmenttypes.AgriculturalequipmentemissionswereapportionedtotheunincorporatedCountyusingagriculturalacreagedataratherthansocioeconomicdata.

Solid Waste/Landfills (Community and Municipal) Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsassociatedwiththedecompositionofwastegeneratedbytheCounty.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory TheCounty’spreviouscommunityGHGinventoryusedwaste‐in‐placeandmethanecapturedataforCountyoperatedlandfillsfromtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyandthefirst‐orderdecaymodeloutlinedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).

Data and Models for Current Inventory TonsofwastesenttoCounty‐operatedlandfillsin2014‐2015providedbytheCountySolid

WasteManagementDivision

ARB’sFirstOrderDecayModel(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2010)DRAFT

WastedisposaltonsfromresidentialandcommercialusesinSanBernardinoCountyin2014,fromtheCaliforniaDepartmentofResourcesRecyclingandRecovery(CalRecycle2017)

WastematerialprofiledataforSanBernardinoCounty,fromtheCaliforniaDepartmentofResourcesRecyclingandRecovery(CalRecycle2017)

Wasteemissionfactorsfromthe2013CommunityProtocol(ICLEI2013)

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory Emissionsfromsolidwastewereestimatedusingawaste‐in‐placemethodologythataccountsforwastegeneratedanddisposedofinlandfillsoperatedbytheCounty.Afirstorderdecay(FOD)modelcreatedbytheARBandbasedonIPCCmethodologywasusedtoestimateemissionsfromwastethatdecaysinlandfills(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2010).TheFODmodelaccountsforallwastegeneratedbytheCommunitythatissenttoCounty‐operatedlandfills,whichisthevastmajorityofwasteintheCounty.AsmallportionoftheCounty’swasteissenttonon‐Countyoperatedlandfills.DatafromCalRecyclefortheselandfillswasusedtodeterminetheemissionsattributedto“wastegeneration”emissionsfromthecommunityfromwastenotaccountedforintheCountyoperatedemissions.

Formunicipalemissions,itwasassumedthatallwastegeneratedaspartofCountyoperationsissenttoCounty‐operatedlandfills.ThetotalmunicipalemissionsarethenequaltotheFODmodelemissionsresultsfortheCounty‐operatedlandfills.

Water Use (Community and Municipal) Waterconsumption‐relatedemissionsoriginatefromenergyusedtotransport,treat,andpumpwatertotheCounty,includingwaterconsumedatCounty‐ownedfacilities.Emissionsfromwaterusewereestimatedforthefollowingsources:1)theenergyassociatedwithwaterusageinsidetheCounty(suchaslocalpumpsdistributingwaterwithintheCounty)and2)energyassociatedwithwatertransportfromoutsidetheCounty(suchasregionalpumpsdeliveringwatertotheCounty’sborders).Electricityusedtotreatanddistributewaterlocallyiscapturedwithinthebuildingenergysector;allattemptsweremadetoavoidanydoublecountingofthisenergyuseandresultingemissionsbysubtractingwater‐relatedemissionsfromthebuildingenergysector.

Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsassociatedwithwaterconsumptionintheCounty.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory WaterconsumptionemissionswereestimatedinthepreviousinventorybyusingimportedwaterquantitiessuppliedtotheCountyandenergyintensityfactorsfromtheCaliforniaEnergyCommissiontocalculateelectricityassociatedwithimportedwater.GHGemissionswerequantifiedbymultiplyingenergyconsumptionandtheutilityGHGemissionfactor.

Data and Models for Current Inventory WaterdemandquantitiesforareasintheCountywithurbanwatermanagementplans,compiled

byPlaceWorks

Water‐relatedelectricityintensityfactorsforSouthernCaliforniafromthe2013CommunityProtocol

WaterconsumptionatCountyfacilitiesprovidedbyCountydepartments

UtilityspecificelectricityGHGemissionfactorsforSCEandregionalaverageemissionfactorsfromtheU.S.EPAforallotherutilityCO2estimates,andforCH4andN2O

Numberofmunicipalemployees

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory Community:WaterdatafromallrelevanturbanwatermanagementplansintheCountywerecompiledandprovidedbyPlaceWorks.Fromthisdata,percapitawaterestimateswerecalculatedforeachregion.BecausetheurbanwatermanagementplanswerenotavailableforeverywaterproviderintheCounty,thepercapitawaterestimateswereappliedtotheentireunincorporatedCounty’spopulationtoensurethattheestimatesofwaterconsumptionwouldbecomprehensive.Energyusetosupply,treat,anddistributewaterwascalculatedbyusingthewaterenergyemissionfactorsforSouthernCaliforniainthe2013CommunityProtocol.GHGemissionswerethencalculatedusingtheappropriateutilityemissionfactors.Water‐relatedenergyusewassubtractedfromthebuildingenergysectortoavoiddoublecounting.

Municipal:MunicipalwaterconsumptionwasprovidedbyindividualCountydepartments.Datawasprovidedfromwaterbillingdataasfeasiblebutwasestimatedbasedonbuildingsquarefootageforbuildingswherewater‐specificdatawasnotavailable.TotalgallonsofwaterconsumedinmunicipalbuildingsweremultipliedbythesameenergyintensityfactorsdiscussedaboveandmultipliedbytheutilityGHGemissionfactors.

Wastewater Treatment (Community and Municipal) Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsfromthetreatmentofindustrial,residential,commercial,andmunicipalwastewaterproducedwithintheCounty.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory Inthepreviousinventory,statewidewastewateremissionsfromtheARB’sGHGinventorywerescaledtotheCountyusingtheCounty’sproportionofpopulationrelativetothestate’spopulation.

Data and Models for Current Inventory 2013CommunityProtocolpopulation‐basedequationsforemissionscalculations(ICLEI–

2013).

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory Community:Wastewaterflowsandtheresultingfugitiveemissionsweredeterminedusingpopulationbasedequationsinthe2013CommunityProtocol.GHGemissionsfromelectricityconsumptionatwastewatertreatmentplantswerecalculatedaccordingtothe2013CommunityProtocol,bymultiplyingwastewaterflowtotalsbyenergyintensityfactorsforthetreatmentofwastewater.Aftercalculatingthecommunitywastewateremissions,apercapitarateofemissionswascalculatedbasedontheunincorporatedCountypopulation.Thepercapitarateofemissionswasthenappliedtothenumberofmunicipalemployeestocalculatedwastewateremissiongeneratedfrommunicipalemployees.

Refrigerants (Community and Municipal) Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsfromtheleakageofrefrigerantsthatcontainorconsistofHFCcompoundsthatcontributetoglobalwarming.Thesechemicalsareusedinrefrigeration,firesuppressionequipment,airconditioners,andchillers.Throughtheinstallation,use,anddisposalofthesesystemsandproducts,leaksarelikelytooccur.Althoughtheleaksaregenerallysmall,emissionsmaybesignificantbecausethesechemicalstypicallyhavehighglobalwarmingpotentials(GWPs).

Methods Used in Previous Inventory RefrigerantemissionswerenotincludedintheCounty’spreviousGHGinventory.

Data and Models for Current Inventory StatewiderefrigerantemissionsfromtheARB’s2014GHGinventory(CaliforniaAirResources

Board2017)

Californiastatewidepopulation(CaliforniaDepartmentofFinance2016)

RefrigerantpurchasesandusageinCounty‐ownedequipment,providedbytheSpecialDistrictsdepartmentandArrowheadRegionalMedicalCenter

TheU.S.EPA’sAccountingTooltoSupportFederalReportingofHFCEmissions(U.S.EPA2017)

GWPsfromtheLGOPandtheIPCC(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoardet.al.2010;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange2013)

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory

Community

BecauserefrigerantdataattheCountylevelisgenerallynotavailable,theCommunityinventoryusesatop‐downpopulation‐basedapproach.StatewiderefrigerantemissionswereobtainedfromtheARB’s2014GHGinventory.TocalculateCounty‐levelrefrigerantemissions,aper‐capitarateofemissionswascalculatedforthestatewideinventory.ThepercapitarateofemissionswasthenmultipliedbythenumberofpeopleintheunincorporatedCounty.

Municipal

The2013CommunityProtocol,theLGOP,andaU.S.EPAtoolwereusedtoquantifyemissionsfrommunicipalrefrigerantuse.TotalrefrigerantpurchasesbyrefrigeranttypeandbyweightwereobtainedfromtheCountySpecialDistrictsdepartmentandfortheArrowheadRegionalMedicalCenter.GiventhattherearemanymorebuildingsownedorleasedbytheCountythathaverefrigerant‐consumingequipmentthantheSpecialDistrictsandArrowheadRegionalMedicalCenterbuildings,datacollectioneffortswouldhavebeenoverlyburdensome.TheU.S.EPA’sAccountingTooltoSupportFederalReportingofHFCEmissionswasusedtoclosethegapforallotherbuildingswherepurchaseorconsumptiondatawasnotavailable.TheEPA’stoolisintendedformunicipalusesandcalculatesrefrigerantusebasedonsquarefootageandbuildingtype(i.e.school,office,hospital,etc.).

FortheequipmentforwhichrefrigerantconsumptiondatawaseasilyavailablefromtheCounty(equipmentinSpecialDistrictsfacilitiesandArrowheadRegionalMedicalCenter),therefrigerantquantitiesweremultipliedbytheapplicableGWPfromtheIPCCand/orLGOP.

Agriculture (Community Only) Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsfrommanuremanagement(fugitiveemissionsofmethaneandnitrousoxide),entericfermentation(fugitiveemissionsofmethaneandnitrousoxide),andfertilizeruse(fugitiveemissionsofnitrousoxide).Otheremissionsourcesfromagriculturewereexcludedbecausetheyarenotcoveredinthe2013CommunityProtocol.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory TheCounty’spreviousinventoryestimatedagriculture‐relatedemissionsassociatedwithfarmingoperations,includingentericfermentationandmanuremanagement,andwasteburninganddisposal.Livestock‐relatedagriculturalemissionswerequantifiedusinglivestockpopulationdatafromtheCountyDepartmentofAgriculture,Weights,andMeasuresfor1990andprojectedto2007usingpopulationdata.WasteburninganddisposalemissionswerecalculatedusingemissionfactorsfromtheARB.TheagricultureemissionsfortheunincorporatedareaswerethencalculatedbyusingtheunincorporatedCounty’sratioofpopulationrelativetothewholeCounty.

Data and Models for Current Inventory SanBernardinoCountyCropReportfor2014(SanBernardinoCounty2014)

U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(U.S.DepartmentofAgriculturen.d.)

Emissionsfactorsfromthe2013CommunityProtocol(ICLEI2013)

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory Emissionsfromagriculturalvehicleswerebasedoncountywideactivitylevelsofthesevehicles,basedontheOFFROADmodeloutputs(theseemissionswereincludedintheoff‐roadvehiclesand

Equipmentsector).Itshouldbenotedthatthe2013CommunityProtocoldoesnotincludeagriculturalvehicle‐relatedemissionswithotheragriculturalemissions.

ManuremanagementemissionswerecalculatedusinglivestockpopulationnumbersestimatedfromtheCountyAgricultureCommissionerfordairycows,beefcows,othercattle,chickens,andturkeysfortheentireCounty.StandardemissionsfactorsfromU.S.EPAandARB,and2013CommunityProtocolequationsspecifictomanuremanagementwereused.Similarly,emissionsresultingfromentericfermentationwerecalculatedusinglivestockpopulationnumbersfromtheAgricultureCommissionerforcows,standardemissionsfactorsfromARBandU.S.EPA,and2013CommunityProtocolequationsspecifictoentericfermentation.

BecausethecropreportappliestotheentireCounty,emissionswerescaledtoonlytheunincorporatedCountythroughconsultationwiththeagriculturalcommissioner.TheCountyagriculturecommissionerindicatedthat90%ofdairyfacilitiesintheCountyarelocatedintheCityofChinoand10%arelocatedintheVictorvilleandBarstowareas(Lampmanpers.comm.).BasedonareviewofGoogleEarthimagery,itwasassumedthatthedairieslocatedintheVictorvilleandBarstowareasarenotlocatedwithinincorporatedareasandarethereforelocatedintheunincorporatedCounty.Thus,only10%ofthelivestockemissionscalculatedusingthecountywidecropreportwereincludedintheinventorytotaltoapproximatetheunincorporatedCounty’sportionoflivestockemissions.

Emissionsresultingfromfertilizerusewerecalculatedusingthecropacreagedatainthecountywidecropreportasthebasisforthefertilizeranalysis.ThequantitiesoffertilizerappliedtothecropswerecalculatedusingtheUSDA’sNationalAgriculturalStatisticsServicedata,whichprovidesestimatesfortheaverageamountsoffertilizerappliedperacrefordifferentcroptypesinCalifornia.DatayearsfortheUSDAfertilizerdatarangefrom1990to2015,thoughsomeyearsdonothaveanydata.Anaveragewastakenacrossallyearstoestimateanaveragefertilizerapplicationrateforeachcroptype.UsingthetotalfertilizerquantitiesappliedtocropsintheCountyin2014andthe2013CommunityProtocolequationsforfertilizeruse,N2Oemissionsemittedfromthefertilizerwerequantified.Consistentwiththe2013CommunityProtocol,agriculturalwasteburninganddisposalemissionswerenotincludedintheinventory.

Residential Fuel Use (Community Only) Overview CalculationofGHGemissionsfromresidentialcombustionoffossilfuels,exceptingnaturalgas(accountedforinthebuildingenergyusesector).Thisincludespropane,kerosene,andwood.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory ThepreviousinventoryincludedGHGemissionsfrommiscellaneoussources,namelymethaneemissionsgeneratedbyfiresandcookingatresidences,andthesesourcesofemissionswereaminorcomponentofthepreviousinventory(approximately0.01%).Toquantifyemissions,thepreviousinventoryutilizedcountywideestimatesforfireandcookingemissionsfromtheSCAQMDinventoryandscaledtotheunincorporatedareasusingpopulation.DRAFT

Data and Models for Current Inventory CountysocioeconomicdataprovidedbyCalthorpeAnalytics

U.S.CensusdataonhomeheatingfuelsfromtheAmericanCommunitySurvey(U.S.Census.2014)

EnergyInformationAdministration’sResidentialEnergyConsumptionSurveydatasetforhomeheatingfuels(EnergyInformationAdministration2009)

EIAStateEnergyDataSystem(SEDS)(EnergyInformationAdministration2017)

FuelcombustionemissionfactorsfromtheClimateRegistry(ClimateRegistry2017)

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory TheCountyusedquantificationmethodsconsistentwiththe2013CommunityProtocoltoquantifyGHGemissionsfromresidentialfuelcombustion.ThenumberofhouseholdsintheCountythatuseeachtypeoffuelwasdeterminedusingstatewideinformationfromtheEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)andtheAmericanCommunitySurvey.Fuelconsumptionforeachfueltypewascalculatedusingstate‐levelfuelusefromtheEIA’sStateEnergyDataSystem.ThefuelusewasthenmultipliedbyfuelcombustionemissionfactorsfromtheClimateRegistryprotocolstodetermineemissions.

Community Emissions Sectors for Informational Purposes Only

Thefollowingsectorsarepresentedasinformationalitemsbutwerenotaddedtotheemissionstotalforthecommunityinventoryorforecast.

Stationary Sources (Community Only) Overview ThissectorincludesGHGemissionsfromnonresidentialstationary(typicallyindustrial)combustionoffossilfuelsofanytypeexceptnaturalgas(accountedforinthebuildingenergyusesector)andfugitiveemissionsfromindustrialprocessesintheCounty.

Methods Used in Previous Inventory ThepreviousinventoryutilizedfuelconsumptiondatafromtheSCAQMDGHGinventorytoestimateemissionsfornon‐cementsourcesandused2008ARBemissionsandclinker3consumptiondatatoestimateemissionsforcementsources.Fornon‐cementsources,thepreviousinventorymethodsincludedscalingthetotalcountywide(incorporated+unincorporated)emissionstotheunincorporatedCountybymultiplyingbytheproportionofunincorporatedCountypopulation.Thisapproachwasidentifiedasadatalimitationinthepreviousinventory,becausepopulationandstationarysourceactivityarenotnecessarilycorrelated.Forcementsources,2008cementplant

3Clinkerisaningredientusedincementproduction

emissionswereobtainedfromtheARBandadjustedfor2007usingthechangeinclinkerdatabetween2007and2008.

Data and Models for Current Inventory GHGemissionsdatafromtheARB’sonlineGHGEmissionsReportingToolandtheIntegrated

EmissionsMappingTool(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2017)

Inventory Methods for Current Inventory GHGemissionsdataforallfacilitiesthatemitmorethan10,000MTCO2eperyearintheCountywereprovidedbytheARBbyzipcodeandcounty.ThecountylevelemissionswereallocatedtotheunincorporatedCountyusingeachfacility’szipcode.

Literature Cited Printed

CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,CaliforniaClimateActionRegistry,ICLEI‐LocalGovernmentsforSustainability,andtheClimateRegistry.2010.LocalGovernmentOperationsProtocolfortheQuantificationandReportingofGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventories.Version1.1.May.Available:<https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/protocols/localgov/pubs/lgo_protocol_v1_1_2010‐05‐03.pdf>.

CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.2017.CaliforniaGreenhouseGasEmissionInventory–2017Edition.Available:<https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm>.Accessed:August22,2017.

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Bernardino.PhoneconversationwithCoryMatsui(ICF)aboutthelocationsofdairyfacilitiesintheCounty.DRAFT