arctic naval security
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Colin MansonDirectorManson Oceanographic Consultancycr.manson@mansonoceanconsulting.com
Arctic Naval Security
Underwater Defence Technology – Spain 29th June 2012
• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
• Global Climate Change
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
Kattesov et al: Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science, Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 56, No. 200, 2010
• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
UnitedStates
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
Canada
UnitedStates
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
Greenland(Denmark)
Canada
UnitedStates
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
Greenland(Denmark)
Canada
UnitedStates
Iceland
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
Greenland(Denmark)
Canada
UnitedStates
Iceland Norway
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
Greenland(Denmark)
Canada
UnitedStates
Iceland Norway
Sweden
Arctic Naval Security
RussianFederation
Greenland(Denmark)
Canada
UnitedStates
Iceland Norway
Sweden
Finland
• Arctic Council• Russian Federation• United States• Canada• Denmark – Representing Greenland and the Faroe Island• Norway• Sweden• Finland• 6 Organisations Representing Indigenous Peoples• Observer States
Arctic Naval Security
• Arctic Council• Russian Federation• United States• Canada• Denmark – Representing Greenland and the Faroe Island• Norway• Sweden• Finland• 6 Organisations Representing Indigenous Peoples• Observer States
• United Nations Law Of the Sea (UNCLOS)• Articles 76-78 – Definition of Continental Shelf• Lomonosov Ridge (Ellesmere Island to New Siberian
Island via the North Pole
Arctic Naval Security
• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
Via Suez Canal Via NSR Miles Days Miles Days Savings (Days)
Japan 11000 34 7400 26 (21) 8 (13)South Korea 10700 33 7500 27 (22) 6 (11)
China 10500 32 7900 28 (23) 4 (8)
Distances and Times from the Far East to Rotterdam Basedon 2011 transit times with some ice present.
• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
Vavrus et al (2012). Twenty - First - Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 2696-2710.
Arctic Naval Security
Arctic Naval Security
• Military Aspects• Search and Rescue• Integrity of national borders• Protection of off-shore installations from terrorist
attack• Suppression of smuggling or piracy activity• Drug interdiction• Monitoring of the marine environment
Arctic Naval Security
• Vavrus, S. J., Holland, M. M., Jahn, A., Bailey, D. A., & Blazey, B. A. (2012). Twenty - First - Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 2696-2710.
• Holland, M. .., & Stroeve, J. (2011). Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate. Geophysical Research Letters, L18501.
• Lenton, T. M. (2012). Arctic Climate Tipping Points. Ambio , 10-22.• Vasilyev, V. .., Selin, V. .., & Tereshchenko, E. .. (2011). Socioeconomic
consequences of anticipated climate change in the Arctic. Regional Research of Russia, 128-132.
• Kattsov, V. .., Ryabinin, V. .., Overland, J. .., Serreze, M. .., Visbeck, M. .., Walsh, J. .., et al. ( 2010). Arctic sea - ice change : a grand challenge of climate science. Journal of Glaciology, 1115-1121.
Arctic Naval Security
Thank You
Colin MansonManson Oceanographic Consultancy
cr.manson@mansonoceanconsulting.comwww.mansonoceanconsulting.com
Lee-on-the Solent, UK
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