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© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org1
The American Church Research Project
The State of the Church
in Arkansas
2000-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org2
The American Church Research Project
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect.
Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org3
The American Church Research Project
The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on
two key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in Arkansas Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forward or Backwards in Influence in Arkansas?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Arkansas will begin to take shape.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org4
The American Church Research Project
This Study
uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2009. Arkansas has an attendance percentage (24.7%) that is much higher than the average for the nation (17.0%).
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org5
The American Church Research Project
2009 Church AttendancePercentage by State
3.1%UT
10.0%ME
9.8%ID
9.8%NV
10.4%NH
11.1%VT
11.5%MA
12.1%WY
12.4%OR
12.7%AK
12.9%WA
13.2%AZ
13.2%NY
13.5%NJ
13.8%CO
14.0%FL
13.0%HI
14.5%CT
14.6%CA
14.6%DE15.3%
WV
15.5%NM
16.0%MT
16.1%RI
16.4%MD17.1%
VA
17.2%TX
17.5%PA
18.1%OH
18.3%IL
18.9%MI
19.5%MO
19.7%WI
20.0%IN
20.2%MN
20.3%NC
20.7%KY
20.8%KS
20.8%OK
20.9%NE
21.3%GA
21.8%SC
22.2%TN
22.2%IA
23.5%SD
24.7%AR
25.2%MS
25.2%ND
25.8%LA
25.9%AL
0.0% to 13.2%
13.2% to 17.1%
17.1% to 20.8%
20.8% to 25.9%
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org6
The American Church Research Project
The Next 3 Maps
show the population numbers for Arkansas using the 2010 Census numbers. The first map shows the population of Arkansas in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The second map shows the population growth percentage from 1990 – 2000 and 2000 - 2010. The third map shows numeric growth from 2000 - 2010.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org7
The American Church Research Project
2,350,725
2,673,386
2,915,918
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1990 2000 2010
Arkansas Population Growth 1990, 2000, 2010
The American Church Research Project
13.7%
9.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1990 - 2000 2000 - 2010
Arkansas Population Growth Percentage 1990 - 2000 & 2000 - 2010
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org9
The American Church Research Project
322,661
242,532
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1990 - 2000 2000 - 2010
Arkansas Population Growth 1990 - 2000 & 2000 - 2010
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org10
The American Church Research Project
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county in Arkansas. The first map shows the population size of each county in 2008. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 2000 - 2008.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org11
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas 2008 Population by County
5435Calhoun
7439Woodruff
7705Lafayette
8048Sebastian
8144Dallas
8298Newton
8518Monroe
8580Prairie
8665Cleveland
9047Montgomery
9157Nevada
10317Perry
10616Pike
10782Lee
11248Searcy
11688Fulton
11906Bradley
11993Chicot
12090Stone
12807Little River
12992Izard
13538Desha
13609Lincoln
14143Howard
15651Madison
15845Clay
16519Sharp
16575Van Buren
16774Marion
16861Lawrence
16936Jackson
17690Grant
17866St Francis
18134Randolph
18185Franklin
18670Drew
18808Cross
19236Arkansas
20257Polk
20755Conway
21603Phillips
21976Yell
22233Ashley
22567Logan
22900Hempstead
23888Clark
24146Columbia
24721Poinsett
24851Johnson
25397Cleburne
25770Ouachita
26336Saline
27557Carroll
31909Hot Spring
34641Independence
36881Boone
40684Greene
42115Baxter
43213Union
43226Miller
46808Mississippi
52554Crittenden
59682Crawford
59952Pope
65233Lonoke
74845White
78373Jefferson
92640Craighead
97465Garland
98209Scott
106823Faulkner
122274Sevier
195803Washington
209791Benton
376797Pulaski
0 to 15845
15845 to 25770
25770 to 376798
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org12
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas 2000 - 2008 Population Growth or Decline
-17.8%Phillips
-16.3%Monroe
-14.8%Chicot
-14.4%Woodruff
-13.9%Lee
-11.6%Desha
-11.1%Dallas
-10.2%Ouachita
-10.1%Saline
-9.7%Prairie
-9.7%Mississippi
-9.7%Clay
-9.6%Lafayette
-8.0%Ashley
-7.7%Jackson
-7.7%Nevada
-7.0%Arkansas
-6.9%Jefferson
-6.2%Pike
-6.0%Lincoln
-5.9%Little River
-5.6%Columbia
-5.5%Bradley
-5.2%Union
-4.9%Calhoun
-4.6%Lawrence
-4.0%Newton
-3.5%Poinsett
-3.4%Cross
-2.8%Hempstead
-2.7%Sebastian
-2.4%Montgomery
-2.1%Izard
-0.8%Howard
-0.2%Drew
-0.2%Randolph
0.0%Polk
0.3%Fulton
0.3%Logan
0.8%Perry
1.1%Independence
1.4%Cleveland
1.6%Clark
2.1%Conway
2.2%Van Buren
2.4%Searcy
2.5%Franklin
3.1%Crittenden
3.8%Marion
3.9%Yell
4.1%Pulaski
4.2%St Francis
4.9%Sharp
4.9%Stone
5.0%Hot Spring
5.3%Cleburne
5.9%Sevier
6.9%Miller
7.3%Grant
8.3%Boone
8.5%Greene
8.5%Carroll
9.0%Johnson
9.5%Madison
9.5%Baxter
10.0%Pope
10.3%Garland
11.0%White
11.8%Crawford
12.3%Craighead
17.0%Scott
22.8%Lonoke
23.3%Washington
23.6%Faulkner
35.5%Benton
DeclineGrowth
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org13
The American Church Research Project
The Next Slide
shows the numeric growth of the four primary ethnicities of Arkansas from 2000 - 2007. The second and third slides show the ethnicity division of Arkansas in 2000 & 2007. The fourth slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group from 2000 to 2007.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org14
The American Church Research Project
40,245
17,898
10,874
52,070
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Anglo African American Asian Hispanic
2000 - 2007 Arkansas Growth in Population by Ethnicity
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org15
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas 2000 Population by Ethnicity
Anglo80%
African American16%
Hispanic3%Asian
1% Anglo
African American
Asian
Hispanic
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org16
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas 2007 Population by Ethnicity
Anglo78%
African American16%
Hispanic5%Asian
1%Anglo
African American
Asian
Hispanic
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org17
The American Church Research Project
-3.6%-1.4%
41.5%
51.2%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Anglo African American Asian Hispanic
Arkansas Growth or Decline in Ethnic Percentage from 2000-2007
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org18
The American Church Research Project
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Arkansas in 2000, 2000 & 2009. Evangelicals and Catholics have grown in attendance, while the Mainline has declined. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has slowly increased, the population has grown dramatically. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org19
The American Church Research Project
504,904
547,048581,222
87,046 86,53078,430
33,219 44,907 54,319
625,412
678,728
714,213
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total
1990, 2000 & 2009 Arkansas Church Attendance
1990
2000
2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org20
The American Church Research Project
21.5%20.5%20.1%
3.7% 3.2% 2.7%
1.4% 1.7% 1.9%
26.6%25.4%
24.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total
1990, 2000 & 2009 Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage
1990
2000
2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org21
The American Church Research Project
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2009. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Arkansas in 2000 and 2009.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org22
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Church Percentage in 2009
Evangelical20%
Mainline3%
Absent75%
Catholic2%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org23
The American Church Research Project
-1.7%
-19.2%
10.6%
-2.7%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total
2000-2009 Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage Growth or Decline
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org24
The American Church Research Project
The Next 5 Graphs Show
the Growth or Decline of Attendance at Evangelical, Mainline, Catholic and All Churches in Arkansas between 2000 and 2009.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org25
The American Church Research Project
Percentage of Population Attending Christian Churches in Arkansason any Given Weekend 2000 - 2009
20.5% 20.5% 20.6% 20.6% 20.6% 20.4% 20.3% 20.3% 20.1% 20.1%
3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%
1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
25.5% 25.5% 25.4% 25.2% 25.1% 25.0% 24.7% 24.7%25.4% 25.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org26
The American Church Research Project
20.5% 20.5% 20.6% 20.6% 20.6% 20.4% 20.3% 20.3% 20.1% 20.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Arkansas Evangelical Attendance Percentage 2000-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org27
The American Church Research Project
3.2% 3.2%3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
2.9%2.8% 2.7%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Arkansas Mainline Attendance Percentage 2000-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org28
The American Church Research Project
1.7% 1.7%1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Arkansas Catholic Attendance Percentage 2000-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org29
The American Church Research Project
25.4% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.4% 25.2% 25.1% 25.0% 24.7% 24.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage 2000-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org30
The American Church Research Project
The Next 4 Graphs Show
the Growth or Decline of the Percentage of Attendance at the Evangelical, Mainline, Catholic and All Churches between 2002 and 2009.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org31
The American Church Research Project
0.1%
-0.1%
-0.8%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-1.2%
0.3%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009
Arkansas Evangelical Yearly Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org32
The American Church Research Project
-1.6%
-1.8%
-1.4%
-1.7%
-2.6%
-3.4%
-2.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009
Arkansas Mainline Yearly Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org33
The American Church Research Project
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.6%
1.0% 1.1%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009
Arkansas Catholic Yearly Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org34
The American Church Research Project
0.1%
-0.2%
-0.8%
-0.4%-0.4%
-1.3%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009
Arkansas Yearly Church Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org35
The American Church Research Project
The Next 2 Graphs Show
the Church Attendance Percentage Share of Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches in both 2000 and 2009. Notice how the percentages have shifted.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org36
The American Church Research Project
2000 Arkansas Percentage of Church Attendance by Category
Evangelical80%
Mainline13%
Catholic7%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org37
The American Church Research Project
2009 Arkansas Percentage of Church Attendance by Category
Evangelical81%
Mainline11%
Catholic8%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org38
The American Church Research Project
The Next Graph
Shows the Yearly Growth or Decline in the Church Attendance Percentage for each Branch from 1990 – 2000 and 2000 - 2009. Because Evangelical churches are not declining as fast as in the 1990’s, the overall decline rate for all groups did not decline as fast as in the 1990’s.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org39
The American Church Research Project
-5.0%
-1.7%
-14.4%
-19.2%
15.9%
10.6%
-4.8%-2.7%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total
2000 - 2009 Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage Growth or Decline
1900-2000
2000-2009
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org40
The American Church Research Project
The Next Chart
shows the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Arkansas.
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas 2008 Church Attendance by Denominational Family
AR, Other, 12.4%
AR, Baptist, 45.7%AR, Pentecostal, 10.8%
AR, Lutheran, 1.3%
AR, Methodist, 9.9%
AR, Christian, 10.9%
AR, Presbyterian, 1.5%
AR, Catholic, 7.6%
Other
Baptist
Pentecostal
Lutheran
Methodist
Christian
Presbyterian
Catholic
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org42
The American Church Research Project
The Next Chart
shows the 1990, 2000 & 2008 average church attendance by group for Arkansas. The second chart shows the 1990, 2000 & 2008 population per church for this state and the nation. This shows how many people live in this state for every Christian church.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org43
The American Church Research Project
96 103 10881 85 84
369
499
617
97 105 112
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total
Average Church Attendance in Arkansas in 1990, 2000, 2008
1990
2000
2008
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org44
The American Church Research Project
365
415
447
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 2000 2008
Arkansas Population per Church, 1990, 2000, 2008
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org45
The American Church Research Project
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Arkansas.
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties2000 Percentage of Population at Christian Churches on any Given Sunday. Yellow = MostRose = Middle Blue = Least
19.4%
Newton
19.6%
Searcy
20.0%
Marion
21.4%Mississippi
21.6%
Madison
21.7%
Clay
22.2%
Cross
22.6%Fulton
23.0%Perry
23.1%
Little River
23.3%Johnson
23.3%
Lee
23.3%
Poinsett
23.6%
Crittenden
23.7%
Lafayette
24.1%Cleburne
24.1%
Woodruff
24.4%
Chicot
25.6%
Polk
25.7%
Franklin
25.8%Phillips
25.9%
Saint Francis
26.3%
Monroe
26.3%
Randolph
26.6%
Lincoln
27.0%
Van Buren
27.0%
Carroll
27.1%
Miller
27.2%
Hempstead
27.2%
Yell
27.3%
Lawrence27.8%
Washington
27.9%
Jefferson
28.0%
Pope
28.1%Calhoun
28.6%
Desha
28.7%
Union
28.9%
Boone
29.0%
Arkansas
29.0%
Lonoke
29.0%
Saline
29.1%Columbia
29.1%
Independence
29.1%
Craighead
29.4%Ouachita
29.4%Conway
29.5%
Baxter
30.0%
Montgomery
30.0%
Pulaski
30.0%
Stone
30.1%
Cleveland
30.2%
Sebastian
30.2%
Ashley
30.2%Izard
30.3%
Crawford
30.3%Prairie
30.3%
Scott
30.9%Greene
31.0%
Garland
31.0%Drew
31.2%
Nevada
31.4%Jackson
31.7%
Sevier
32.0%Logan
32.4%Clark
33.0%
Hot Spring
34.3%
Bradley
34.7%
Faulkner
35.9%
White
36.0%Pike
36.1%
Howard
37.4%Benton
38.0%
Sharp
40.7%
Grant
43.6%
Dallas
19.4% to 27.0%27.0% to 30.1%30.1% to 44.6%
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org47
The American Church Research Project
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Arkansas in 2000. Evangelical churches are much stronger in the southern half of the state, while Catholics are clustered in the northwest part of the state.
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties2000 Percentage
of Population at Evangelical Churches
on any Given Sunday. Yellow = Most
Maroon = Middle Blue = Least
14.7%
Marion
17.3%
Newton
17.6%
Madison
17.7%
Perry
18.2%Johnson
18.6%
Scott
19.2%
Cleburne
19.3%
Washington
19.4%
Carroll
19.5%
Fulton
20.9%
Franklin
21.5%
Cross
21.5%
Lonoke
21.5%
Polk
22.1%
Saint Francis
22.2%
Clay
22.4%
Poinsett
22.7%
Yell
22.8%
Baxter
22.9%
Randolph
23.0%
Crittenden
23.1%
Van Buren
23.1%Benton
23.2%
Pope
23.2%
Faulkner
23.6%
Little River
23.6%Mississippi
23.7%
Boone
23.9%
Crawford
24.0%
Craighead
24.1%
Lee
24.7%
Hempstead
24.8%
Sebastian
25.1%
Lincoln
25.1%
Sharp
25.2%
Garland
25.2%
Searcy
25.2%
Miller
25.4%
Montgomery
25.4%
Stone
25.7%
Izard
26.1%
Greene
26.1%
Woodruff
26.3%
Independence
26.5%Conway
26.7%
Lafayette
26.7%
Chicot
26.7%
Lawrence
27.8%
Logan
27.9%Phillips
28.0%
Saline
28.1%
Jefferson
28.2%
Pulaski
28.3%
Hot Spring
28.5%Calhoun
28.6%Drew
28.9%
Monroe
29.1%
Columbia
29.1%
White
29.2%
Union
29.3%Clark
29.9%
Arkansas
30.0%
Prairie
30.0%
Ashley
30.7%
Cleveland
30.8%
Sevier
31.1%Ouachita
31.1%
Desha
31.6%
Nevada
31.8%
Bradley
32.0%
Pike
32.2%Jackson
34.2%
Howard
34.4%
Grant
45.3%
Dallas
17.3% to 23.6%23.6% to 28.0%28.0% to 46.3%
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties2000 Percentage
of Population at Mainline Churches on any Given Sunday.
Yellow = MostMaroon = Middle
Blue = Least
0.6%
Newton
0.8%
Randolph
1.1%
Madison
1.2%
Lee
1.3%
Scott
1.6%
Fulton
1.6%
Lincoln
1.7%
Perry
1.8%
Grant
1.8%
Poinsett
1.8%
Conway
1.8%
Clay
2.0%
Phillips
2.1%
Crittenden
2.2%
Chicot
2.2%
Pike
2.2%
Sharp
2.2%
Hot Spring
2.3%
Saline
2.3%
Crawford
2.3%Mississippi
2.4%
Saint Francis
2.4%
Polk
2.5%
Ashley
2.5%
Jackson
2.5%
Calhoun
2.5%
Johnson
2.5%
Logan
2.5%
Little River
2.6%
Woodruff
2.7%
Cross
2.7%
Franklin
2.7%
Desha
2.8%
Jefferson
2.8%
Stone
2.8%
Pope
2.8%
Yell
2.9%
Hempstead
2.9%
Howard
2.9%
Bradley
2.9%
Lonoke
3.0%
White
3.0%
Carroll
3.0%
Sebastian
3.1%
Greene
3.1%
Craighead
3.1%
Faulkner
3.2%
Independence
3.2%Montgomery
3.2%
Lafayette
3.2%
Lawrence3.3%
Washington
3.3%
Prairie
3.3%
Izard
3.4%
Boone
3.4%
Van Buren
3.4%
Cleveland
3.4%
Miller
3.5%
Nevada
3.6%
Marion
3.6%
Baxter
3.7%
Monroe
3.7%
Drew
3.7%
Clark
3.7%
Columbia
3.9%
Searcy
3.9%
Benton
4.0%
Pulaski
4.3%
Cleburne
4.4%
Ouachita
4.4%
Union
4.7%
Dallas
5.1%
Sevier
5.5%
Arkansas
5.9%
Garland 0.8% to 2.5%2.5% to 3.5%3.5% to 6.9%
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties2000 Percentage
of Population at Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday.
Yellow = MostMaroon = Middle
Blue = LeastCalhoun
Cleveland
Fulton
Lafayette
Nevada
Newton Searcy
0.1%
Lee
0.2%
Madison
0.2%
Clay
0.2%
Lawrence
0.2%
Grant
0.2%
Lonoke
0.3%
Jackson
0.3%
Saint Francis
0.3%
Columbia
0.3%
Ouachita
0.3%
Montgomery
0.3%
Stone
0.4%
Howard
0.4%
Pike
0.4%
Lincoln
0.4%
Poinsett
0.4%
Monroe
0.4%
Woodruff
0.4%
Crittenden
0.5%
Mississippi
0.5%
Hot Spring
0.5%
Scott
0.5%
White
0.5%
Little River
0.5%
Union
0.6%
Drew
0.6%
Marion
0.6%
Phillips
0.6%
Hempstead
0.7%
Dallas
0.7%
Clark
0.7%
Desha
0.8%
Greene
0.8%
Independence
0.8%
Yell
0.9%
Izard
0.9%
Prairie
0.9%
Jefferson
0.9%
Cleburne
1.0%
Bradley
1.0%
Saline
1.1%
Van Buren
1.1%
Ashley
1.1%
Arkansas
1.2%
Perry
1.2%
Crawford
1.4%
Boone
1.4%
Cross
1.5%
Chicot
1.7%
Johnson
1.7%
Polk
1.7%
Pope
1.9%
Craighead
2.1%
Miller
2.6%
Carroll
2.6%
Sharp
2.9%
Franklin
2.9%
Garland
3.2%
Sevier
3.3%
Pulaski
3.4%
Washington
3.6%
Benton
3.9%
Sebastian
3.9%
Randolph
4.5%
Conway
4.8%
Baxter
5.1%
Faulkner
5.7%
Logan
0.0% to 1.0%1.0% to 2.0%2.0% to 6.7%No data
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org51
The American Church Research Project
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 24 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 51 counties declined.
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Growth or
Decline of Percentage of Population at Worship on any Given Sunday.
Rose = Growth Blue = Decline
-19.3%
Cleveland
-18.4%
Carroll -18.3%
Marion
-17.5%
Polk
-16.6%
Saint Francis-14.6%
Perry
-13.7%
Randolph
-12.3%
Hot Spring
-12.3%
Van Buren
-11.6%
Benton
-11.3%
Faulkner
-11.0%
Saline
-10.5%
Lincoln
-10.5%
Greene
-10.3%
Grant
-10.1%
Lonoke
-10.0%
Conway
-9.6%
Madison
-9.4%
Miller
-9.2%
Nevada
-8.4%
Cross
-8.1%
Sevier
-8.1%
Sebastian
-8.0%
White
-7.7%
Izard
-7.4%
Columbia
-7.2%
Yell
-7.0%
Franklin
-6.7%
Fulton
-6.6%
Bradley
-6.6%
Pike
-6.6%
Lee
-5.9%
Union
-5.9%
Phillips
-5.4%
Johnson
-5.2%
Ashley
-5.1%
Washington
-4.8%
Craighead
-4.6%
Hempstead
-3.8%
Baxter
-3.6%
Clark
-2.9%
Prairie
-2.6%
Arkansas
-2.0%
Lafayette
-2.0%
Garland
-1.9%
Sharp
-1.0%
Poinsett
-0.8%
Chicot
-0.7%
Ouachita
-0.7%
Pope
-0.1%
Independence
0.1%
Jefferson
1.0%
Monroe
2.0%
Crittenden
2.1%
Howard
2.4%
Logan
2.5%
Clay
2.7%
Calhoun
2.7%
Lawrence
3.7%
Woodruff
4.4%
Newton
4.4%
Stone
5.0%
Drew
5.1%
Little River
5.1%
Cleburne
5.2%
Boone
5.8%
Pulaski
6.0%
Searcy
6.3%
Scott
7.3%
Dallas
7.5%
Crawford
7.6%
Mississippi
9.0%
Desha
9.7%
Jackson
68.5%
Montgomery
DeclineGrowth
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org53
The American Church Research Project
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Arkansas between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 32 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 43 counties declined. For mainline churches, 7 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 68 counties declined. For Catholics, 45 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 22 counties declined.
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Growth or Decline of Percentage of Population at Evangelical Worship on any Given Sunday.Maroon = Growth Blue = Decline
-24.5%
Carroll
-19.8%
Polk
-19.3%
Cleveland
-17.3%
Faulkner
-15.9%
Sebastian
-15.7%
Randolph
-15.5%
Perry
-15.2%
Marion-14.9%
Sharp
-13.8%
Miller
-12.3%
Saint Francis
-12.0%
Benton
-12.0%
Hot Spring
-11.0%
Lincoln
-10.6%
Grant
-10.3%
Searcy
-9.7%
Conway
-9.6%
Madison
-9.5%
White
-9.0%
Lonoke
-8.5%
Washington
-8.4%
Greene
-7.0%
Craighead
-6.8%
Bradley
-6.6%
Ashley
-6.3%
Cross
-5.2%
Franklin
-5.0%
Columbia
-4.9%
Nevada
-4.7%
Yell
-4.5%
Pike
-4.2%
Phillips
-4.1%
Garland
-3.9%
Johnson
-3.9%
Van Buren
-3.3%
Lee
-3.0%
Union-2.8%
Lafayette
-2.3%
Fulton
-1.8%
Clark
-1.3%
Pope
-1.1%
Prairie
-0.1%
Arkansas
0.2%
Baxter
0.3%
Hempstead
0.8%
Chicot
1.0%
Ouachita
1.6%
Izard
1.7%
Monroe
1.8%
Independence
1.8%
Calhoun
1.8%
Poinsett
2.3%
Drew
3.3%
Howard
4.2%
Jefferson
4.5%
Sevier
4.7%
Cleburne
4.9%
Little River
5.0%
Woodruff
5.6%
Pulaski
5.7%
Lawrence
5.8%
Saline
7.0%
Clay
7.0%
Stone
7.1%
Logan
7.5%
Newton
7.7%
Crawford
8.2%
Scott
8.3%
Crittenden
8.8%
Dallas
10.8%
Boone
11.3%
Mississippi
12.7%
Jackson
13.4%
Desha
22.6%
Montgomery DeclineIncrease
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Growth or
Decline of Percentage of Population at
Mainline Worship on any Given Sunday.
Maroon = Growth Blue = Decline
-41.9%
Newton
-37.9%
Fulton
-35.2%
Pike
-33.7%
Nevada
-32.4%
Hempstead
-32.1%
Lee
-31.7%
Logan
-31.6%
Izard
-30.0%
Conway-28.5%
Sebastian
-27.9%
Yell
-27.6%
Johnson
-27.5%
Bradley
-27.3%
Van Buren
-26.9%
Sharp
-26.1%
Jefferson
-25.4%
Polk
-25.2%
Poinsett
-24.7%
Sevier
-24.3%
Carroll
-24.2%
Phillips
-23.8%
Marion
-23.7%
Benton
-22.5%
Chicot
-22.0%
Greene
-20.6%
Clay
-20.6%
Desha
-20.4%
Columbia
-20.1%
Hot Spring
-19.0%
Clark
-18.2%
Crittenden
-17.5%
Boone
-17.3%
Scott
-16.7%
Cross
-16.4%
Washington
-15.9%
Jackson
-15.8%
Union
-15.8%
Independence
-14.7%
Mississippi
-14.6%
Randolph
-14.3%
Prairie
-13.0%
Baxter
-12.5%
Stone
-12.1%
Lawrence-12.0%
Madison
-11.9%
Dallas
-11.5%
Montgomery
-11.1%
Searcy
-10.5%
Arkansas
-10.4%
Lincoln
-10.2%
Craighead
-10.0%
Ashley
-9.9%
Crawford
-9.6%
Lonoke
-9.0%
Franklin
-8.8%
Saint Francis
-8.7%
Little River
-8.6%
Woodruff
-7.4%
Ouachita
-5.4%
Monroe
-5.4%
Howard
-5.0%
Cleveland
-4.3%
Grant
-3.3%
White
-2.6%
Garland
-2.2%
Pulaski
-1.9%
Pope
-1.8%
Perry
0.8%
Faulkner
3.2%
Miller 5.7%
Lafayette
7.5%
Cleburne
8.8%
Saline
12.7%
Calhoun
18.3%
Drew
DeclineIncrease
The American Church Research Project
Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Increase or
Decline in Percentage of Population at
Catholic Worship on any Given Sunday.
Maroon = Growth Blue = Decline
Calhoun
Cleveland
Fulton
Lafayette
Nevada
Newton
Pike
Searcy
-72.2%
Lee
-64.7%
Clay
-60.2%
Crittenden
-50.1%
Van Buren
-48.0%
Izard
-47.7%
Lonoke
-42.3%
Saint Francis
-35.5%
Ouachita
-33.3%
Union
-26.8%
Lawrence
-21.9%
Howard
-18.3%
Columbia
-17.2%
Marion
-16.0%
Cross
-15.0%
Montgomery
-13.8%
Mississippi
-13.3%
Arkansas
-10.9%
Desha
-8.5%
Phillips
-5.6%
Prairie
-4.4%
Greene
-4.1%
Jackson
0.3%
Franklin
1.6%
Jefferson
2.5%
Perry
3.6%
Chicot
4.5%
Grant
6.3%
Poinsett
7.0%
Conway
9.5%
Randolph
10.1%
Woodruff
10.7%
Baxter
12.4%
Monroe
19.2%
Logan
20.0%
Boone
21.9%
Stone
22.7%
Sharp
24.1%
Pulaski
24.4%
Cleburne
28.9%
Sebastian
30.7%
Pope
31.8%
Scott
33.0%
Hempstead
36.6%
Madison
37.7%
Miller
41.1%
Independence
41.6%
Garland
46.0%
Hot Spring
57.9%
Lincoln
63.4%
Saline
68.6%
Faulkner
75.3%
Clark
87.1%
Craighead
93.3%
Ashley
97.4%
Johnson
102.2%
Yell
104.1%
Polk
104.7%
Benton
110.1%
Drew
118.8%
Washington
122.3%
Crawford
129.5%
Sevier
208.0%
Dallas
315.3%
White
377.4%
Carroll
418.8%
Little River
1213.9%
Bradley
DeclineIncreaseNo data
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org57
The American Church Research Project
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches in Arkansas in the past decade. There was a net loss of 57 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in Arkansas, there would have needed to have been an additional 438 more churches started from 2000 - 2008.
The American Church Research Project © 2004 by David T. Olson
8
-63
-2
-57
438
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain Increase Needed toMaintain 2000 Ratio
of Churches toPopulation
2000 - 2008 Growth or Decline in the Number of Churches in Arkansas
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org59
The American Church Research Project
The State of the Church in Arkansas . . .
• Because of strong population growth in the northwest part of Arkansas, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges.
• While numeric church attendance has grown for Evangelicals and Catholics, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining for the Evangelical and Mainline church, while growing only for the Catholic church. This resulted in a 2.7% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 2000 and 2009.
• A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Arkansas. If the church is to rectify that state-wide, 495 additional churches would need to be started in the state than in the next 8 years.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org60
The American Church Research Project
Information on the Information
• The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
• Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
• African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 2000 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 2000 and 2000. This was combined with the known attendance at about 10,000 African Americans churches to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible for each county.
• Independent church data is difficult to obtain. (There are actually many fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 2000 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
• In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
• Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
• This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 22% and 24% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox Christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 25% – 27%.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org61
The American Church Research Project
This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 15 years for over 200,000 individual churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 305,000 orthodox Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2008 percentage to 19.3%.
© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org62
The American Church Research Project
For More Information . . . • Presentations such as this are available for
the largest 80 Metropolitan Areas in the United States, for each State and for the Nation as a whole. Presentations can be downloaded immediately. A Combo Pack for each state is also available, which includes the National, State and any Metro PowerPoints from that state. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information.
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