austin cole february 16, 2010. outline i. sampling a. bad sampling methods b. random sampling ii....
Post on 24-Dec-2015
214 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Data for DecisionsChapter 7
Austin ColeFebruary 16, 2010
Outline
I. Samplinga. Bad Sampling Methodsb. Random Sampling
II. ExperimentsIII. Applying Sample to a PopulationIV. SimulationsV. Confidence IntervalsVI. Discussion
Sampling
Population- entire group of individuals about which we want informationSample- part of population from which information is collected
Unemployment
Monthly unemployment rate based on survey of 60,000 householdsDefine populationDefine unemployedFinal percentage
"Labor Force"
UnemployedNot looking for workEmployed
Bad Sampling Methods
Convenience sample-sample of easiest to reach members of populationBias-systematically favoring a certain outcomeVoluntary Response Sample-people choose to respond to a general appeal
Simple Random Sampling
Every individual in population has equal chance to be sampledTable of random
digits
Cautions about Sample Surveys
Undercoverage-group of the population is left out when choosing sampleNonresponse-individual chosen doesn’t participateWording of questions
Experiments
Observational StudyExperiment-imposes some treatment on individuals to observe their responsesConfounding variables-variable whose effects cannot be distinguishedControl group
Randomized Comparative Experiment
Online vs. classroom courses
Random Sampling Exercise
1.Starting on line x, read 2-digit groups until you have chosen 6 restaurants.2.Ignore groups not in the range and ignore any repeated labels.
Starting at line 105: 07, 19, 14, 17, 13, 15
Thinking about Experiments
Placebo effectDouble-blind experimentProspective studies
From Sample to Population
Statistical inference-using fact of a sample to estimate about whole populationParameter-fixed number that describes populationStatistic-number that describes a sampleSampling Distribution-distribution of values taken by the statistic in all possible samples of the same size from the same population
Simulation
Assessing simulations
ShapeCenter-mean of sampling distribution (g)Spread-standard deviation of sampling distribution
g(1- g)n
Confidence Intervals
Percent of all samples will produce an interval containing the true population parameter68-95-99.7 RuleMargin of error for 95% confidence interval:
ĝ(1- ĝ)n2
95% Confidence Interval
Exercise
A Gallup poll asked a random sample of 1785 adults if they attended church or synagogue in the last 7 days. Of the respondents, 750 said yes. Find the 95% confidence interval.
ĝ(1- ĝ)n
ĝ=.42 =.023
95% Confidence Interval: .376 to .466
Discussion
In real world examples, what are some uses of knowing the spread/standard deviation?Other uses/applications for this information?
9,38,44a (7th edition)
Homework Problems:
top related