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Battery Market Development:
Materials Requirements and
Trends 2012-2025
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT
AABC EUROPE 2013
June, 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
AGENDA
The battery market in 2012 by technology, applications & battery suppliers
Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market
Supplier / customer relationship
Raw material cost
New entrants strategy
Raw material road map 2012-2030
Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025
2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2012
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
3
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
HEV
po
we
red
by
LIB
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY AAB (2012)
AVICENNE 2007-2012
ROLAND BERGER (2011)
IIT (MARCH 2010)
ROLAND BERGER (2012)
DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
IIT (MARCH 2011)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2010
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
4
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1990 2000 2010 2012
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
5
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
50 BILLION US$ in 2012
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
PORTABLE
SLI
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1990 2000 2010 2012
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
7
Lead Acid Batteries
330 GWh for US $ 30 Billion
64%
33% 3%
SLI
Industrial
E-bikes
24%
22%
12%
40% 2%
Telecom
UPS
OtherStationary
Forklift
Othermotive
Industrial Batteries
54 GWh for US $ 10 Billion
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY
CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2012
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
MW
h
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCd
The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume,
MWh, 1995-2012
2002-2012 (CAGR)
NiCd: -2% per year
NiMH: + 4% per year
Li-ion: +25% per year
8
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY
CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2012
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
M$
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCd
The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$,
1995-2012
Note: Cell level
2002-2012 (CAGR)
NiCd: -6% per year
NiMH: + 7% per year
Li-ion: +14% per year
9
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN
MARKET SHARE
Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market
in 2001 to less than 45% in 2012
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%1
99
4
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
Rechargeable battery market by country
Japan
Korea
China
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
LIB market by country
Japan
Korea
China
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh
10 500 M$
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
11
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
$
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Automotives Tablets Power toolsCamcorders Digital camera MP3Games E-Bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
12
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh
10 500 M$
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
13
BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING
DRASTICALLY
In 10 Years 80% price decreasing
despite a fluctuating Co price
Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)
Source: UMICORE, march 2011
18650 oversupply ratio is
increasing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
M c
ells
/Y
ear
Supply Demand Oversupply ratio
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
M c
ells
/m
on
th
BAK
ATL
Lishen
E-One
LG
SDI
MAXELL
SONY
PANASONIC
SANYO
Production capacity 2009/2011:
from 150 to 250 M cells/month
Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST
IS RAW MATERIALS
RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 80% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS
RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT
14
Lithium ion cell average cost Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pro
du
ctio
n c
ost
LIB Cost structure for Japanese,
Chinese & Korean makers in 2012
Operatingprofit
Depreciation
SGA
R&D
Labor
Material
Cathode cost 21%
Anode cost 7%
Electrolyte 5%
Separator 8% Other
materials 13%
Depreciation 13%
Direct labor 6%
Energy, utilities
3%
R&D 6%
Sales & Adm 6%
Overheads 6% Margin
6%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN
15
CATHODE SUPPLIERS
75 OOO T in 2012
Revenues: 1,85 B$
CAGR 02/12: +16%
ANODE SUPPLIERS
38 000 T in 2012
Revenues: 0,6 B$
CAGR 02/12: 14%
ELECTROLYTE
SUPPLIERS
29 000 T in 2012
Revenues: 0,46 B$
CAGR 02/12: 20%
SEPARATOR
SUPPLIERS
490 M m² in 2012
Revenues: 0,9 B$
CAGR 02/12: 18%
CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
> 11 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
ANCILLARY
Revenues: 0,5 B$
PACK
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
> 14 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
BINDER SUPPLIERS
5 600 Tons in 2012
Revenues: 0,16 B$
CAGR 02/12: 16%
For each component: • Market in volume & value? • Material used by apploication? • Main suppliers / new comers? • Material cost? • Major trends? • Technology roadmap
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS
BY CHEMISTRY
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials for LIB
in Tons, 2000-2012
16
(…)
LEADERS:
Nichia 23%
Umicore 21%
Others 8%
Internal 4%
B&M 17%
Easpring 10%
Reshine 10%
Other China
7%
LCO – 29 KT (2012) NMC1 – 27 KT (2012)
Nichia 23%
Umicore 27%
Others 19%
Internal 5%
L&F 11%
Other China 15%
LMO – 13 KT (2012) LFP – 5 KT (2012)
Nichia 8% Other
Japan 16%
Internal 6%
Nikki 18%
Qyanyun 15%
Other China 37%
Tatung 12%
Aleees 18%
Other Japan
5%
Internal 6%
Clariant 5%
A123 10%
Formosa 8%
Valence 6%
Others 30%
1- Including NCA
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2025
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials 2000-
2025 - Tons
Cathode active materials in
2012: 75 000 Tons
17
ASSUMPTIONS:
Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume
HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB
P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB
EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB
LCO 39%
NMC 30%
NCA 5%
LMO 18%
LFP 8%
Cathode active materials in
2025: > 330 000 Tons
LCO 24%
NMC 37% NCA
7%
LMO 11%
LFP 21%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
18
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS
38 000 TONS IN 2012
LIB Anode Materials
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Source: Sanyo, March 2011
LIB Anode market, (Tons)
LIB Anode Materials
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
To
ns
LTO
Si or Sn Type
Amorphous Carbon
Meso-Phase
Artificial Graphite
Natural Graphite
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012
0% 50% 100%
SANYO
SONY
PANASONIC
SDI
LGC
BYD
Lishen
Maxell
ATL
BAK
A123
Others
ARTIFICIAL
MCMB
NATURAL
Amorphous
METAL
19
Natural graphite become a commodity
Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Natural Graphite
61%
Artificial Graphite
28%
MCMB 6%
Amorphous 3%
Si or Sn Type 1%
LTO 1%
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2012)
(…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Hard Carbon
Soft Carbon
Graphite
Capacity (/g)
400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g
Capacity (/cc)
++ 0 +
Power ++ + 0
Stability ++ + 0
Cyclability ++ + 0
Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,
cellulose, wood,
coconuts…
Petroleum coke
Natural or petroleum
coke
COST 2012->2020
30 -> 25 $/kg
25->20 $/kg
15 -> 10 $/kg
SUPPLIERS KUREHA
HITACHI HITACHI BTR
& many others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2012
LIB separator market, M$,
CAGR 2002/2012: +18%
LIB Separator supplier, market
share in 2012
20
Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
M$
Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
ASAHI 26%
TORAY 23%
SUMITOMO 1%
ENTEK 3%
SK 13%
CELGARD 19%
UBE 7%
Others 8%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
29 000 TONS IN 2012
LIB electrolyte market, Tons,
CAGR 2002/2012: +20%
LIB electrolyte supplier, market
share in 2012
21
Ube 9%
Mitsubishi 21%
In-House 3%
Tomiyama 3%
PANAX-ETEC 16%
Zhangjiagang Guotai-
Huarong 15%
Jinniu 10%
Capchem 9%
Shanshan 9%
Others 5%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ton
s
Cellular Portable PC Tablets
Power tools E-Bikes Auto
Others
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2012
Electrolyte Battery makers &
suppliers relation in 2012
Electrolyte maker sales
2005-2012
22
Ube
Mitsubishi
In-House
Tomiyama
PANAX-ETEC1
ZGH
Jinniu
Capchem Shanshan
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ton
s
Note: 1 former Samsung Chiel
0 2000 4000 6000
UBE
Mitsubishi Chem
In-house
Tomiyama
PANAX-ETEC
ZGH
Mitsui
BASF
Jinniu
Cap Chem
ShanShan
Tons
Panasonic SDI LG Chem BYD
Lishen Maxell ATL BAK
A123 NEC YUASA (LEJ) TOSHIBA
Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.
Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.
LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)
Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).
So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.
23
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LI-ION RAW MATERIALS ROADMAP
24
Source: Kai-Christian Möller , Fraunhofer – 2013, AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
25
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
FORECASTS 2012-2025
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000 OTHERS
INDIA
ASIA
CHINA
JAPAN
EUROPE
USA
Cellular phones demand (M Units)
CAGR 2012-2025: +6%
Cellular Phones market Drivers
Emergent market
Renewal ratio increase
Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells for cellular phones
trends
Laminates ratio increase
Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
LIB cells demand 2012-2025
Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Polymer
Prismatic
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
26
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
FORECASTS 2012-2025
0
100
200
300
400
Emerging
Mature
Portable PCs demand (M Units)
2010-2025 CAGR: +4%
Portable PCs market trends
Mature market stable or decreasing
Growth driven by Emerging market
Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))
ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy
LIB cells for portable PCs trends
Thinner cells
Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025
> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
LIB cells demand 2010-2025
Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Laminate
Prismatic
Cylindrical
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
2025 LIB FORECASTS
EXCEPT AUTOMOBILE
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
12
20
15
20
20
20
25
MW
h
Others
E-bikes
Household devices
Toys
MP3
Video Games
Digital Camera
Camcorders
Cordless Phones
Power Tools
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
LIB market, MWh, by application (except
Auto) - CARG 2012-2025: 12%
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form
factor (Except Auto)
27
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr
Li-P IIT - March 2012 (1)
(1) Source: Battery Japan 2012 BJ-1 conference – Slide p 10
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
HEV FORECASTS
2012-2025
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
HEV
pen
etra
tio
n (
% o
f to
tal c
ar s
ales
)
USA EUROPE JAPAN
OTHERS WORLD
HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020
28
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
29
LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR
HEV, P-HEV & EV
Recall slash battery profit
LIB >>> NiMH but
SAFETY & COST ISSUES
PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion
Volts 201.6 201.6
Cells 168 (28*6) 56
Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah
Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh
Weight 38 kg 25 kg
T°C Range + +
Cyclability + ++
Safety
Cost
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Op
era
tin
g p
rofi
t/R
eve
nu
e
Sanyo
MBI
BYD
SGS
Sony
NEC
Maxell
LGC
SDI
Average
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
SAFETY ISSUES
30
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects
Bac
kg
rou
nd
M
ob
ile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Au
tom
oti
ve
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced
safety concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode
(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result
of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)
(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US with a Panasonic battery using NMC, NCA cathodes
Air
cra
ft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
31
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE
VALUE CHAIN
32
The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components
Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected
Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)
Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful
Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM
On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate
1
2
3
5
4
6
Comments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
33
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE
>50 GWh in 2015
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500
PANASONICNISSAN Motor US
SonyBYD
LG ChemJCI
A123SanyoEner1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)
GS YUASASB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem - Compact…Nissan - Renault (UK)
ToshibaBlue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen
BAKSAFT US
SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)
Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy
Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV
34 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
€ 8,250 -€ 18,100
€ 5,500 -€ 8,000
€ 50 -€ 300
€ 1,000 -€ 2,500
€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -
€ 400
HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100
€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -
€ 1,250
€ 150 -€ 350
€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -
€ 500
€ 1,500 -€ 3,000
Charger
DC/DCconverter
InverterRectifier
GeneratorInverter
HV battery
cell Packaging material
LV batterypack
CoolingSyst
HVCables &
Connectors
Batt.MagtSyst
Batt.Packaging
Manuf.
Overall
HV batt. CELL
for EV
0 €
2 000 €
4 000 €
6 000 €
8 000 €
10 000 €
12 000 €
Power Elec
Pack Manufacturing
BMS
Thermal Mgmt + packaging
Cell manu
Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf
HEV P-HEV EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS
35 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
NISSAN LEAF
GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5
BOLLORE BLUE CAR
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2011-2020
LIB cell average cost
(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
36
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year
2015* 2020* 2011* 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode cost
Cathode cost 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
OtherMaterials
Electrolyte
Separator
Anode
Cathode
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
EV FORECASTS
2011-2020
EV sold, in million units,
worldwide, 2010 - 2020
EV impact on the LIB & raw
material market is HUGE
37
IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale
IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale
Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009
Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes
AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
4
50
45
400
1000
10000
25000
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
Mobile Phone
Portable PC
Power Tools
E-bikes
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Average Wh per device
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +20%
Total battery demand (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +12%
38
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
2000 – 2025
Rechargeable battery market,
M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)
Rechargeable battery market,
M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)
39
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Micro-hybrid batteries
40
Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)
Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
OptimisticScenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020
35 3.5
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
41
Stand
ard
Lead acid
Batteries
2010 2015 2020 AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
NiM
H b
atte
ries
STANDARD CAR
88.5% EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
44%
MICRO HYBRID
50%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
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2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
TAKEAWAYS
42
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +8%
Note: Excluding Energy Storage batteries
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000 2010 2020 2025
MW
h Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)
NiMH (-4%) LIB (+6%)
LIB for xEV (+16%) (CAGR 2012-2025)
25 B$
49 B$
60 B$
78 B$
92 B$
280 GWh
380 GWh
575 GWh
775 GWh
2,3
15
11
23
52
32
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
43
About
AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Battery Market
Development: Materials
Requirements and Trends
2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
Strasbourg, FRANCE
AVICENNE PROFILE
Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI
Headquarter: Paris
Liaison Office: Japan, USA
AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot
5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari
Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy
with in-depth research
The Rechargeable Battery market
21st Edition
Customized
survey
45
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
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OUR BUSINESS STORY
1992 •AVICENNE Creation
1994
•AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities
•AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN
1999 •« BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris
2003
•AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL
2008 •AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict
2009
•AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing – China
2010
•Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN •20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020
2011
•AVICENNE Energy division is created •13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress
2013 •22nd Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2012-2025 • 15th Edition of BATTERIES CONGRESS
46
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
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2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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OUR METHODOLOGY
MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
Primary Research Secondary Research
Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours
Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data
Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys
Case Studies Reference Customers
Qualitative Quantitative Strategic
Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players
Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data
SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition
Track valuable Information's
Strategic Analysis
Presentation of the results
Q&A with customers
Customer Evaluation
INFORMATION COLLECTION
SUP
PLY
SI
DE
DEM
AN
D
SID
E
47
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
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AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO
RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
In Depth analysis Of applications
Cross Check Analysis
Battery Makers
OEM
Raw materials suppliers
Environment & recycling
BMS
Electronics
Substitution technologies
Conferences & Exhibitions
Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts
48
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
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AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY
FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN
Source : Photo from BASF
Raw Materials
BMS & Electronics
Cooling Systems
Power Electronics
Batteries
49
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
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2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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MORE THAN 180 REFERENCES
WORLDWIDE A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS AROS SECURITIES ARC ARKEMA ASHLAND ATOFINA AT KEARNEY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY R&D ASSOCIATION OF KOREA B&D BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BUHLER GMBH BYD CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DCN DELTA
DGA DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK (BAYER) HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ITRI
ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP - RUSSIA NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC OSKR PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT
RHODIA ROLAND BERGER SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER
50
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
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AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP
MODERATOR
BATTERIES 2012, FRANCE – (1999-2012) Owner, chairman & speaker “The battery market 2010-2025”
INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2011, Shenzhen, China “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2010-2020”
AABC Europe, Mainz (2012) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020”
THE 28th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2012 “HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2010)
EVER 2009, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe”
EVS 20011, “Battery market for automotive industry”
CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide”
Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009-2010 Chairman & speaker, “The battery business 2009-2020”
EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee) “The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges”
China Industry Battery Fair 2006 “The Chinese battery Industry”
…
Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year
51
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
Development: Materials
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2012-2025
AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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BATTERIES 2013
OCTOBER 14TH-16TH
3 days congress in France (Nice)
15th Edition (first edition in 1999)
500 attendees
40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating,
80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,
www.batteriesevent.com
52
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
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Battery Market
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AABC EUROPE June 24-28
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SUMMARY
A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years
Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, …
Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups
Knowledge
Methodology
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We will help and support your growth
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