big m conference - future mobile innovations

Future mobile innovations....@pgolding

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Copyright Paul Golding, 2011http://wirelesswanders.com

The Big M - Bath, 21st March

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In...Europe, Asia, Africa, Middle East, N. Am, LatAm

21st year in mobile (Indie for 14)Surfing the bleeding edge...16 patents (GSM chipsets)Founded mobile apps ISV in 1996PhD research mobile AR

Chief Apps Architect MotorolaAdvised €10K-€10B companiesMentor @ SpringBoard“Intrapreneur” @ O2’s “The Lab”Founded O2 Incubator

W(ho)TF is Paul G? - He’s from the “future”

3Whose future?

Whose future?

Open agenda:Two of my kids at MWC 2011:

Android developers, ages 11,13

Your “developer” future...

Innovation lessons, trends & tricks

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$

Which future?

2011 2014

“skating to where the puck ($) will go”

sorry - no holodeck predictions this time...

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“The future has already arrived. It's just not evenly distributed yet.”

William Gibson

Where is the future?

Being first is often a bad idea...Trick #1 Be first to win, not to market!

tip: copy something else that appears to work;do it better! analyse case studies! project forward!

1997 2003 2008 20102002

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“fish don’t know water exists... until beached”

Marshall McLuhan

BUT...Innovation dilemma

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“fish don’t know water exists... until beached”

Marshall McLuhan

BUT...

thought weneeded this...

now we can’t dowithout this...

Trick #2 - Experiment! Start!tip: ROI of doing nothing is nothing - most start-ups fail because they never started!

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Trick #3 - Code towards customers (users)!

tip: read Steve Blank, Eric Ries, Dave McLure, Osterwalder

1. Reduce operational friction - Run fast as possible - fail fast, pivot often

And.. 2. lower user friction -->

Lower the friction as much as possible...

Source: Crossing the Chasm(Geoffrey Moore)

1 million?

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Trick #4 - Don’t code the future into the producta “whole product” (e.g. Blackberry not POP3) does not mean every feature

constantly test (early) your hypotheses! (Stealth = scared.)build the future into the process, not product, and instrument early

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Source: Dealing with Darwin(Geoffrey Moore)

Recognise when and where to innovate...

Trick #5 - Innovate where it matters!

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DevelopProduct

ConceiveProduct

ChoosePlatforms

DeliverProduct

EngageMarket

tip: Become app analysts & developers

tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself

tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog, other devs...

Trick #6 - Master the whole apps journeyAnalytics, retailing, marketing, support, CRM...

chompflurryallify

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Post PC?

interesting side-note: 42% tablets shared by their owners

Where are we headed with devices?

Utility Experience

Local Cloud

Source: Asymco

“freedom”

“freedom”

“freedom”

13Shift in the balance of power...

comms

OS

Web

Telco OEM Internet

apps

2007

Web

OS

comms

apps

2011

Web

OS

comms

apps

2014

Experience Platforms

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ContextWallet Multi-UXStatus InterestsSocial

“Experience Platforms”

“The Web Operating System”

Real-time bus

Cloud Platforms

IaaS

PaaSSaaS

CaaS

Telco

“Social Stack”

Apps

iOS AndroidHTML5 ?

Identity/oAuth

Right-time Augmented WebLinked Data

BIG DATA

Right-timeComputer

PersonalizedComputer

NaaS

The emergent mobile ecosystem...

Payments

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IaaS

PaaS

SaaS

NodesterDuostackHerokuForce.comdotcloud

AWSRightscaleRackspace

gnipIMifiedchargifyapigee

mPaaS

mSaaS

connFuTropoCorona/Appcelerator?New entrants

flurryallifyapigeeNew entrants

CaaSNaaS

JajahSkype/ViberBlueViaNew entrants

XaaS

FacebookApple?O2?John Lewis?New entrants

Developer ecosystem opportunities...

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global voice mash-ups platform“re-inventing” comms

17Voice still has a BIG future....

Closed voice Open voice

plus “Voice as content” (2014)

2010 2012

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tip: still need a “killer” app(orthogonal to the market)

Platform domination...

Trick #7 - know when you’re really a platform

tip: read Spolsky, Hagiu, Eisenmann

Developers

OEMSOperators

Users

Advertisers

19Business model enablers versus tech enablers...

App stores v HTML5Identity v oAuth

Check-in v LocationOpen platform v Open source

Bit.ly v RedirectsAndroid v MeeGo

Analytics v “No-SQL”Trick #8 - Think biz models, not technology

tip: try Osterwalder’s biz model canvas

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ExperiencePlatforms

“Right-time”web

SensorProliferation

CloudComputing

Post PCDevices

Key trends“Mobile 3.0”

Possible Mobile 3.0 tipping points (TP)...

when mobile really is first

SeamlessComputing

Network,LTE

Hardware,OS

Apps

Hardware,AR,

Health

PaaS

AbundantAccess

Identity,Privacy

Real-time& meta-data

abundance of developer opportunities throughout the ecosystem

SaaS

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2011 - 2014 Rules for the New Bubble

•  Founders/VC’s can engineer financial transactions

•  Transactions economically or usage accretive

•  Still require Agile, Cust Dev & Bus Model

•  Add: Adoption, Order of Battle and Visibility

Future of start-ups...

Taken from Steve Blank - SXSW 2011

Trick #9 - Leverage the start-up ecosystemtip: go read the whole presentation http://slidesha.re/gqa9KG

tip: get a really good mentor or join an incubator

22Future of work...

Trick #10 - Start the future today!

Paul Goldingpaul@wirelesswanders.comwirelesswanders.com

@pgolding

(C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010

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Thank You