biodiversity: policy challenges in a changing world natural capital initiative symposium: “valuing...
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Biodiversity: Policy Challenges Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing Worldin a Changing World
Natural Capital Initiative symposium: “Valuing our life support systems”
London
Professor John BeddingtonChief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and
Head of the Government Office for Science
29 April 2009
Global challenges
Water demand Energy demand
Urbanisation Population
Alleviating poverty
Climate Change
Infectious diseases Food demand Biodiversity
Causes of degradation are stable or increasing
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Millennium ecosystem assessment
Biomes
More than half of the 6/14 major world biomes had been converted by 1990
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Human Footprint
Source: Wildlife Conservation Society
Extinctions per thousand species per million
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Future extinction rates estimated to be 10 to 100 times higher
Extinction of species
• 2002, Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 123 Ministers committed themselves to:
• ‘“.. achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction
of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the
global, regional and national levels as a
contribution to poverty alleviation and to the
benefit of all life on earth” (Decision VI/26)
CBD 2010 biodiversity target
Risks to ecosystems – need to act
Source: IPCC AR 4
The situation may be worse than predicted
Source: NSIDC 2007Arctic, near-ice free by 2030?
(Source: Wang and Overland, 2009)
Ocean Acidification
Source: Blackford & Gilbert 2007, Caldeira & Wickett 2003
Changes in pH over the last 25 million years
Oceans are an important reservoir for CO2 with ~30% of CO2 produced from fossil
fuel burning & land-use change taken up by
oceans(Sabine et al 2004)
• Oceans will become: warmer; more acidic; less diverse; and over exploited
• The impact on ocean food webs, ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles could be very serious
Increases in global population and urbanisation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Popu
latio
n (b
illio
ns)
Oceania
Northern America
Latin America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Po
pu
latio
n (m
illio
ns)
Urban population
Rural population
Urban and rural populations of the world
(at mid-year) 1950 - 2050World population, by region
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: 2008 (revision)
Increased demand for
food and energy
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
4000.00
4500.00
1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2030 2050
Mil
lio
n T
on
ne
s o
f fo
od
Milk and dairy (excl butter)
Meat (carcass weight)
Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products
Pulses
Sugar
Roots and tubers
Cereals, food
World food requirements
World food production must rise by 50 % by 2030 to meet increasing demand (Source: UN 2008)
World primary energy demand by fuel
Total world energy demands are predicted to increase by approx. 50% by 2030 (Source: IEA 2008: Reference Scenario)
Source: UNEP, 2002
Availability of fresh waterC
ubic
met
res
of w
ater
Fresh water availability per head of world population
Source: ABS 2005
1 in 3 people are already facing water shortages
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007
Total world water demands are predicted to increase by over 30% by 2030
Source: IFRPI
The Perfect Storm?The Perfect Storm?
Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Water Increased demand
30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
FoodIncreased demand
50% by 2030
(FAO)
Climate Change
Solutions?
•Ensure value of ecosystems are taken into account when making decisions•New energy technology•Make hard choices about agriculture, food, energy and water•Better planning and management•Change behaviour, education and training
We recommend enhancing levels of taxonomic training and linking such training more directly to the ongoing measurement of biodiversity. Royal Society – measuring biodiversity for conservation, 2003
Agricultural production
More people means less cultivated land per personfor food, feed, (agro)-fuel and fibre production
2030 – 8.3 bn people
2030 – even less farmland per person
Source: NRC, 2008/Henoa and Baanante 2006
Cereal production evolution
Hard Agricultural Choices (i)
Agricultural productivity
Source: Embrapa, Brazil
Hard Agricultural Choices (ii)
Key Questions
Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Water Increased demand
30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
FoodIncreased demand
50% by 2030
(FAO)
Climate Change
1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?
2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?
3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?
4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?
5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?
Biodiversity
Joint Programmes
Joint Climate Research Programme
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