brazilian agricultural research corporation · 10,5% wood products 9,2% cellulose/paper 7,5% coffee...
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Brazilian Agricultural Research CorporationBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
Brief Overview of the Brazilian Agricultural Sector
Brief Overview of the Brief Overview of the Brazilian Agricultural SectorBrazilian Agricultural Sector
CERRADOSAVANNAHCERRADOSAVANNAH
AMAZONAMAZONSEMI-ARIDSEMI-ARID
SUBTROPICALTEMPERATESUBTROPICALTEMPERATE
Environmental Complexes in BrazilEnvironmental Complexes in BrazilEnvironmental Complexes in Brazil
Population: 184.000.000 millionPop.Density 21 hab/km2
Total Surface: 8.511.996,3 km2
Brazil Exports ‐Oct/2004 a Mai2008‐
Soybean Complex
19,3%
Meats20,2%
Sugar10,5%
Wood Products9,2%
Cellulose/Paper7,5%
Coffee6,6% Leather
Products4,0%
Tabacco3,9%
Leather3,3%
Orange Juice2,8%
Others12,6%
Source: MAPA
1960
19601975
196019752008
Grain Production: Brazilian MidwestSavannah
9
Brazilian Agricultural Research CorporationBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
42 Research Units42 Research Units
10
Equator
Trop. Capricorn30o S
Trop. Cancer30o N
Input C&T
Output C&T
Labex USALabex Europe
Embrapa Africa
NAFTA38%
Mercosul48%
China & India10%
Others4%
Production 2007
World Soybean Production by Region
218,8 Mt
1212Source: CONAB Elaboração: GV Agro
Drought Impacts on Brazilian Grain ProductionDrought Impacts on Brazilian Grain Production
Losses of Losses of 27,2 million ton27,2 million ton
25%
Sowed AreaMillion of Ha
148%
Million of Ton
Production
SOJA - Paraná
1976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
A N O
500800
11001400170020002300260029003200
kg/ha
050010001500200025003000350040004500
1000 ha
Rendimento Área
Parana State Parana State ––
Soybean ProductionSoybean Production
Year
YieldYield AreaArea
SOJA - Rio Grande do Sul
1976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
A N O
300600900
1200150018002100240027003000
kg/ha
060012001800240030003600420048005400
1000 ha
Rendimento Área
Rio Grande do Rio Grande do SulSul
State State ––
Soybean ProductionSoybean Production
Year
YieldYield AreaArea
2003/2004 Drought 2003/2004 Drought Soybean Yield Reduction Soybean Yield Reduction
2002/03 2003/04 %
MT 4409 5164 17.12
PR 3619 3931 8.62
RS 3591 3956 10.16
Brasil 18447 21214 15.00
Area (1000ha)
2002/03 2003/04 %
12719 14973 17.72
10947 10024 -8.43
9579 5668 -40.83
51484 50023 -2.84
Production (1000 t)
2002/03 2003/04 %
2885 2899 0.51
3025 2550 -15.70
2668 1433 -46.29
2791 2358 -15.51
Yield (kg/ha)
State Production 2004 (t) Reduction (t)
Area2004 x Yield2003 PE2004 - Yield2004
PR 11.890.759 1.866.759
RS 10.552.638 4.884.638
Brasil 59.206.460 9.183.460Farias et al., 2005
2002/03 2004/05 %
MT 4410 6024 36.6
PR 3619 4082 12.8
RS 3591 4090 13.9
Brasil 18448 23104 25.24
Area (1000ha)
2002/03 2004/05 %
12719 16928 33.1
10947 9388 -14.3
9579 2311 - 75.9
51484 50195 - 2.5
Production (1000 t)
2002/03 2004/05 %
2884 2810 - 2.6
3025 2300 - 24.0
2667 565 - 78.8
2791 2173 - 22.1
Yield (kg/ha)
By State 2005 (t) Losses (t)
Area2005 x Yield2003 PE2005 - Yield2005
PR 12.348.050 2.960.050
RS 10.908.030 8.597.030
Brasil 64.483.264 14.288.264
2004/2005 Drought 2004/2005 Drought Soybean Yield Reduction Soybean Yield Reduction
Farias et al., 2005
2003/04 DirectLosses
~US$~US$ 1,8 billions1,8 billions
2004/05 DirectLosses
~US$~US$ 2,32 billions2,32 billions
IIntergovernmental ntergovernmental PPanel on anel on CClimate limate CChange (IPCC) Scenarioshange (IPCC) Scenarios
IIntergovernmental ntergovernmental PPanel on anel on CClimate limate CChange (IPCC) Scenarioshange (IPCC) Scenarios
IIntergovernmental ntergovernmental PPanel on anel on CClimate limate CChange (IPCC) Scenarioshange (IPCC) Scenarios
IIntergovernmental ntergovernmental PPanel on anel on CClimate limate CChange (IPCC) Scenarioshange (IPCC) Scenarios
Present and Future Grain Production Areas in Brazil Present and Future Grain Production Areas in Brazil according to temperature increases forecasted by according to temperature increases forecasted by
the IPCC, and the consequent production reductionthe IPCC, and the consequent production reduction
ØØ Soil Management (e.g. NoSoil Management (e.g. No‐‐Tillage)Tillage)ØØ Plant DensityPlant DensityØØ Weed ControlWeed ControlØØ IrrigationIrrigationØØ ……etcetc……
Drought: Agronomic Strategies to Reduce Losses
Drought: Agronomic Strategies to Drought: Agronomic Strategies to Reduce LossesReduce Losses
Tolerant Cultivars Tolerant Cultivars (Classical Breeding) (Classical Breeding) ‐‐
DifficultDifficult
Tolerant Cultivars Tolerant Cultivars (Genetically Modified) (Genetically Modified) ‐‐
?!!?!!
DROUGHT ToleranceDROUGHT Tolerance
PhotosyntatesTranslocation
Nutrient Translocation
WaterTranslocation
Flowers and Legume Abscission
Gas Exchange
Tolerance with developmentTolerance with development
rd29Ard29A DREB Nos‐T
ChaperonesDehydrins
LEA
Osmoprotectants
Anti‐
oxidantes
Cor6.6/kin2rd22
StressResponsive
Gene
rd29A
Cor15a
kin1
Dr. YamaguchiDr. Yamaguchi‐‐Shinozaki GroupShinozaki Group
IsolineIsoline
NON GM NON GM 5% Soil Gravimetric 5% Soil Gravimetric
HumidityHumidity
IsolineIsoline
GM P58 GM P58 5% Soil Gravimetric 5% Soil Gravimetric
HumidityHumidity
Visual Differences: Non GM=Fast WiltingVisual Differences: Non GM=Fast Wilting
IsolineIsoline
NON GM NON GM 2.5% Soil Gravimetric 2.5% Soil Gravimetric
HumidityHumidity
IsolineIsoline
GM P58 GM P58 2.5% Soil Gravimetric 2.5% Soil Gravimetric
HumidityHumidity
Photosynthesis RatePhotosynthesis Rate HeightHeight
Photosynthesis EfficiencyPhotosynthesis Efficiency Leaf AreaLeaf Area
StomatalStomatal ConductanceConductance Dry/Fresh weightDry/Fresh weight
Yield ComponentsYield Components RWCRWC……etcetc……....
Field Tests Authorization = Tentative in November Field Tests Authorization = Tentative in November 20092009
PreciseSoil Humidity Control
Roundup Ready Soybean Adoption in Brazil
Source: Conab/Abrasem/Celeres/ISAAA
2005 2005 ‐‐Brazilian New Brazilian New BiosafetyBiosafety
LawLaw
Soybean Seeds Soybean Seeds MarketSharesMarketShares in Brazilin Brazil
44 46 4850 52 54
83 858178777586 87
57 61 72 82 92 97 10564
58
40 42 44
54514946
57
42
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
OTHERSARGENTINABRAZILUNITED STATES
Soybean –
World Production 2020
Source: AGROCONSULT/ ABIOVE
MM ton
Anos
World Grain Stocks
Source: USDA Note: * Soybean, Corn, Wheat e Rye. In thousand of Ton
Production x Consumption*: Production x Consumption*: Totals from 2000/01 to 2007/08Totals from 2000/01 to 2007/08
World
World
China
China
Brazil
Brazil
ProductionProduction
ConsumptionConsumption
Result: Stocks ConsumptionResult: Stocks Consumption
ProductionProduction
ConsumptionConsumption
Result: Stocks ConsumptionResult: Stocks Consumption
ProductionProduction
ConsumptionConsumption
Result: Stocks SupplyingResult: Stocks Supplying
World projections for soybeans and corn
Brazil: Responsibility to feed the worldBrazil: Responsibility to feed the world
+ 2%+ 2%per yearper year
World(million ton) Brazil
(million ton)1.088
920 168
2005 Additional 2015
+ 7%+ 7%per yearper year
Source: Bunge.
174
89
85
2005 Additional 2015
Tropical Agriculture:Challenges for the future
Embrapa SoybeanEmbrapa Soybean
290 Workers290 Workers 76 Scientists76 Scientists 350 Ha Farm350 Ha Farm
Soybean Center 24º
South Latitude
Alexandre Nepomuceno, Alexandre Nepomuceno, Ph.D. Ph.D.
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