camp alatoo and undp multi-country climate risk management programme (ca-crm)
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Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
Risk Meeting Alamty 2
CA-DRM ElementsComponent 1 Develop Climate Risk
Assessment MethodologyComponent 2 Testing the methodology
developed in a select CA countryComponent 3 Develop recommendations
for Climate Change Risk Management Planning in the pilot country
Component 4 Knowledge Sharing and Communication
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 3
Disaster Risk
Managem
entVariability
Change
Society
Exposure
Climate
Risk
Vulnerabilit
y
Climate Change
Managem
ent
Weather and Climate Events
Oct 12
Outcom
e
Managem
ent
Risk Meeting Alamty 4
CA CRA Overview Core
Approaches
Core Elements
Outcome-based assessment of climate events
Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options
Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)
Hazard impact defined by historical damage
Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo
Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 6
Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events
Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models
Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters
ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only
partial data
The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard
Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk
Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 7
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 2
CA-DRM ElementsComponent 1 Develop Climate Risk
Assessment MethodologyComponent 2 Testing the methodology
developed in a select CA countryComponent 3 Develop recommendations
for Climate Change Risk Management Planning in the pilot country
Component 4 Knowledge Sharing and Communication
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 3
Disaster Risk
Managem
entVariability
Change
Society
Exposure
Climate
Risk
Vulnerabilit
y
Climate Change
Managem
ent
Weather and Climate Events
Oct 12
Outcom
e
Managem
ent
Risk Meeting Alamty 4
CA CRA Overview Core
Approaches
Core Elements
Outcome-based assessment of climate events
Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options
Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)
Hazard impact defined by historical damage
Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo
Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 6
Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events
Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models
Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters
ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only
partial data
The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard
Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk
Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 7
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 3
Disaster Risk
Managem
entVariability
Change
Society
Exposure
Climate
Risk
Vulnerabilit
y
Climate Change
Managem
ent
Weather and Climate Events
Oct 12
Outcom
e
Managem
ent
Risk Meeting Alamty 4
CA CRA Overview Core
Approaches
Core Elements
Outcome-based assessment of climate events
Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options
Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)
Hazard impact defined by historical damage
Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo
Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 6
Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events
Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models
Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters
ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only
partial data
The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard
Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk
Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 7
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 4
CA CRA Overview Core
Approaches
Core Elements
Outcome-based assessment of climate events
Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options
Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)
Hazard impact defined by historical damage
Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo
Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 6
Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events
Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models
Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters
ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only
partial data
The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard
Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk
Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 7
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 6
Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events
Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models
Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters
ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only
partial data
The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard
Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk
Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 7
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 6
Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events
Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models
Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters
ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only
partial data
The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard
Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk
Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 7
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 7
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 8
Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data
processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has
advantages in understanding risk management preferences
How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)
Some skills and training needed
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 9
Out
puts
Inp
uts
Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110
yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative
Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized
Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key
results More extensive report annexed to the main report
Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on
Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs
Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations
Oct 12
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
E-atlas data
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Example of vulnerability indicators
Example human vulnerability indicator against flood
Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)
General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability
Specific indicator s
By type of hazardsBy type of economic
sectors
Basic data
Hazard data
Vulnerability data
Climate change data
Next step
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 12
Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital
Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme
Human No negative outcome on health
Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths
Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths
Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold
Significant negative health outcomes and deaths
Financial No loss income or financial assets
Temporary loss of work
Loss of work extended for several months
Significant loss of work
Near total loss of income and financial assets
Social No need for reliance on social network for support
Occasional reliance on social network for support
Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months
More than a year reliance on social network for support
Total reliance on social network for basic needs
Natural No damage to natural resources
Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs
Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs
Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs
No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access
Political Full government engagement in response to event
Minor gaps in government response
Some government assistance but significant unmet needs
Very limited response to event
No government response to event
Apples and Oranges
Oct 12
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 13
Com
parin
g th
e D
iffer
ent
Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12
Human
Financial
Social
Natural
Political
Physical
0
5
S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle
Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217
Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Risk Meeting Alamty 15
ChallengesData
Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions
Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links
Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate
Silos and SynthesisPractical Application
Oct 12
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-
CRM)
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
- CA-DRM Elements
- Slide 3
- CA CRA Overview
- Slide 5
- Collecting Disaster Data
- Slide 7
- Risk Perception Assessment
- OutputsInputs
- E-atlas data
- Example of vulnerability indicators
- Apples and Oranges
- Comparing the Different
- Slide 14
- Challenges
- Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)
-
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