caricoos support of nws san juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/presentacion 3rd council/cara.pdfnws san juan...

CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juan

Scott StriplingJeffrey CupoNOAA NWS

San Juan, Puerto Rico

Current CARICOOS Supportof NWS San Juan

USF MODIS regional mapped products• true color imagery for dust, ash detection• regional SSTs, chlorophyll

Current CARICOOS Supportof NWS San Juan

• Testing, development stage of high resolution wind (WRF) and wave (SWAN) modeling

• UPRM/NWS San Juan collaboration

Current Available Observations

Remotely sensed products• Scatterometers – QuikScat, ASCAT, WindSAT• SSM/I – derived wind velocities • Altimetry – ocean circulation, wave height• TPW• SST’s

Current Available Observations

• CARICOOS interactive map for regional observations

• Mostly land based or coastal observations

Current Available Observations

• NDBC interactive map of Caribbean region• Mixture of platforms, funding agencies, coding• Only 1 buoy in local waters (USACE) 41140

NWS San Juan Marine Area

• Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between 19.5N -17.0N, and 68W - 64W, roughly 600 square nm

• Currently only 3 (recent) platforms for true over water observations – 2 AOML CREWS, 1 USACE Waverider buoy

• No comprehensive studies have ever been conducted to accurately depict the trade wind flow around the local islands

• Only course resolution model reanalysis exists to develop regional wind and wave climatology

• NWS San Juan not included in NWS marine verification program. Why? No obs!!!

NWS San Juan Marine Needs

• Sufficient observational network of winds and waves in both the near shore and off shore environment

• Dense network of coastal and land obs to monitor precisely the low level wind flow and expected zones of convergence that lead to convection

Annual Precip Across Puerto Rico

• Dense rain gage network across PR

• Differences exist in analysis

• Low level wind forcing dictates where rain occurs

HaRP

• July 19–August 23, 1990 • Study of Big Island of

Hawaii to investigate structure and forcing mechanisms of rainbands

• Data set included 2 NCAR Dopplers, NCAR electra aircraft, very dense meso network (PAMs), wind profiler, rawindsondes

Reality of NWS Forecasting

• Primarily land based coastal obs available• Airports, NOS tide gages • No HaRP like studies to reveal whether

land obs represent what might be occurring over water

• Wind forecast tends to be strongly influenced by computer model guidance of varying resolutions

GFS 18Z winds @ 40km

NAM 18Z winds @ 12km

NAM Closeup

NAM Closeup

WRF 18Z winds @ 4km

WRF Closeup

WRF Closeup

Wind Modeling & Forecasting

• Model examples depict typical daytime heating effects on 15 kt trade wind flow

• So which model is most correct?• Insufficient observations to verify• Insufficient research and study to detail

land-sea interaction, daytime, night time changes in wind or “local effects”

• Many more questions than answers

Hurricane Omar

• GOES image (L) and CIRA multiplatform surface wind analysis (R) as Omar exited St Croix

Hurricane Omar

• USACE buoy (L) from north coast and NOS tide gage from south coast (R) during passage of Omar

Conclusions from Omar

• Eye of Omar passed just east of St Croix - Cat 3• Peak measured winds St Croix 88 mph• Peak measured seas ~ 4 meters• However, no observations along east and southeast coasts to

indicate max winds, waves and storm surge

NWS San Juan Support from CARICOOS

• OBSERVATIONS!!!• Continued support of

UPRM-NWS partnership – modeling, research

• Develop plan for HaRPlike project for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands

• Assist NWS in establishing and maintaining a spotter network across the region

• Develop oceanographic database to support seasonal climatic forecasting

Adios Amigos

Looking forward to serving CaRA and the regional needs from the National Hurricane Center.

Keep my chair warm. I’ll be back!!Scott