certificate in global environment and development joint certificate between envs and iafs envs 1000...

Certificate in Global Environment and DevelopmentJoint Certificate between ENVS and IAFS

ENVS 1000 + IAFS 1000 (8 hours) ENVS 3000 level and IAFS 3000 level course focused on global

environment and development (6 hours) 6 hours of experiential learning

Internships ENVS or IAFSProgram such as CU in DC

Study Abroad/Global Semester programs

If you are an ENVS or IAFS major (or considering either program), would you be interested in this program? (if you are a Jr/Sr,

think back to your freshman year)

More Exam Details

When you enter the room, you will be given two pieces of paper.

Then you must sit with/near your assigned TA, and you will be given a third piece of paper.

All 3 pieces of paper must be turned in to your TA when you leave, no exceptions.

Bring your glasses.

Bring #2 lead pencil for multiple choice questions.

Possible essay questions have been posted: http://spot.colorado.edu/~dabe1889/teaching.html

Outline for 10/1: Conventional Military Force

1. Conventional Military Force

Decisions about size and composition

Comparing countries

2. Counterinsurgency (COIN)

Some COIN basics

COIN in Afghanistan

3. An Air War in Syria?

Decisions re: Conventional Forces

1. Size

External threats

External balancing (alliance) options

Guns vs. Butter Tradeoff, and the Demand for Butter

Offensive / defensive intentions (3:1 rule )

2. Capital (Equipment) vs. Labor (Manpower) Intensiveness

Economic Development

Population Size

Strategic Doctrine: Attrition or Blitzkreig

3. Draft or Volunteer Force (for labor component of conventional forces)

Offensive vs. Defensive Intentions

Democracy or Autocracy

Population Size (especially # of unemployed)

Any other decisions that national leaders must make in terms of their conventional forces?

Country Size K or L intensive

Draft or AVF

North Korea 1,000,000 active9,500,000 total(pop.=24 million)

L intensive Draft

China 2,300,000 active3,500,000 total(pop.=1.3 billion)

L intensive, butgrowing K

Draft, but not enforced

Israel 180,000 active750,000 total(pop.=7.5 million)

K intensive Draft, includes females

Costa Rica 0 active10,000 total

United States

Comparing National Choices re: Conventional Forces

Can you fill in the United States row?

Fighting a Counterinsurgency

Def. of insurgency – armed rebellion against a government (often weak)

Def. of counterinsurgency (COIN) – military force (often from outside powers) directed towards suppressing armed rebellion, protecting civilians and strengthening the government.

COIN success requirement? 1 soldier/50 civilians

Contrast with counterterrorism (CT) – focus on eliminating the terrorists/armed rebellion,

don’t worry about the rest.

Examples?

US/NATO COIN in Afghanistan

Who are the domestic insurgents? Who are the foreign insurgents?Who is the govt. we are trying to protect/strengthen?

Doing the Math for COIN in Afghanistan

Total Afghan pop. 28,000,000

1 soldier/50 civilians requires 560,000 troops

NATO troops (including US) 105,000 (peak in 2011)

Afghan military 100,000 ~200,000

Reasons for pessimism?

Reasons for optimism?

Air War in Syria ?

What do we hit?Syrian air defense: aircraft plus ground-to-air missilesCommand and control facilitiesHigh value symbolic targetsNOT chemical weapons storage facilities

Securing chemical weaponswould require ground forces, which is not politically feasible.

How do we hit these targets?

Cruise missiles launched from sea

Aircraft launched from Jordan and maybe Turkey

US COIN in Iraq

3 ethnic groups in Iraq: 1) Shiite majority (50%), 2) Sunni minority (30%), and 3) Kurds (20%)

Who are the insurgents? Who controls the govt. that the US is trying to protectWho wants independence from Iraq, but not currently insurgents?

Doing the Math for COIN in Iraq

Total Iraq pop. 26,000,000Minus Kurds 21,000,000

1 soldier/50 civilians required 420,000 troops

US troop level 150,000 maxMilitary contractors 50,000Iraqi military (Shiite) 100,000 (200,000)

~300,000

If we did not have the required force level, what could explain our success in Iraq?