cliff mass: big data and weather prediction - seattle interactive 2015

Big Data and Weather Forecasting

Weather prediction has been a big data problem for a long time

Petabytes per day

Big data and weather: the observations

Weather Satellites: Meteorological Data Everywhere

NOAA PolarOrbiter WeatherSatellite

NOAA Polar Orbiter

Cosmic GPS satellites provide more soundings

Cloud Track Winds

Aircraft

Weather Radar

Surface Observations

Northwest Surface Observations

Some of the smartphones/pads with pressure sensors

114K Pressures in One Hour Over US From Three Apps

Big Problem

Quality Control of Big Weather Data

The other meteorological big data: forecast models

The First Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical Weather Prediction

Observation Collection Needed to Create the Initialization

These equations together are a time machine!

Numerical Weather Prediction

National WeatherService WeatherPrediction Computer

4-km UWMM5 System

1.33 km resolution available on the UW web site

Before the models are run there is another step: data assimilation

Surface analysis of sea level pressure, surface wind, low-atmosphere temperature

But there is another issue for big data users…meteorological and otherwise.

Uncertainty

Big Data and Uncertainty

The Technology of Uncertainty

Ensemble Prediction

Ensemble Prediction• Can use ensembles to give the probabilities that some weather feature will occur. Not just precipitation.

• Ensemble mean is more accurate than any individual member.

•When forecasts are similar, forecast skill of the ensemble mean is generally higher.

Statistical post-processing

The UW has done this: PROBCAST

Decision Making and Uncertainty

Take Home Message

Big Data and Visualization

The role of visualization

And there are some recent non-Xbox examples

Imagine if we developed the infrastructure for weather animations, SHOWING people what the weather would LOOK like and SOUND like.

Connect Weather Simulation and Videogame Technologies

ForecastAnimationFor theNext Hr

Take Home Message

Big weather data can also help in the short-term forecasting

During the past decade the volume of information on what is occurring now in local areas has increased dramatically

And we have the perfect delivery tool: Smartphones

Take Home Message

The End