climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000 part 1 mickeyglantz@hotmail.com

Climate affairs ppt for iafs 3000

Part 1mickeyglantz@hotmail.com

Climate Affairs:“Usable Science” for Society?

Michael H. Glantz

ccb.colorado.edu

www.fragilecologies.com

Consortium for Capacity Building

INSTAAR, Univ. of Colorado

Boulder, Colorado

15 January 2009

The Climate century ?

All eyes are on the atmosphere

Aspects of Climate(what is missing in the graphic?)

• Climate variability

• Climate fluctuations

• Climate change

• “Deep” climate change

• Extreme events

• Seasonality

Perceptions of Climate

• Climate as a resource• Climate as a hazard• Climate as a constraint

Every society climate has a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next and one decade to the next.

…as a hazard• This is the way that we tend to view climate• Its anomalies can often lead to death and

destruction• There is also a misery factor (lost photos, having

to live in a gym for weeks, loss of pets, heirloom losses, etc

• Governments most concerned about climate as a hazard.

• Governments have responsibility for early warnings.

… as a resource

• Adequate and reliable precipitation, temperature, seasonality

• It provides for adequate food production and water resources in a region

• Experience from similar ecosystems • Reliable forecasts on all time scales • The careful use of climate information can

make a hostile climate less so

… as a boundary constraint

• In the early 1900s climate was viewed as a constraint• Personally• Nationally

• Hot and tropical climates, it was argued, made the people lazy and unproductive in a workplace, whereas seasonal climates of the Northern Hemisphere were invigorating to people and nations

• This view was challenged as racist but was more or less in place until the mid 1970s!!

• Global warming will change present constraints while creating new ones

http://video.aol.com/video-detail/chris-farley-el-nino/1340308260

El Niño Process

El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner

• El Niño is a hazard-spawner

– It is associated with droughts, floods, fires, and disease outbreaks worldwide

• La Niña is also a spawner of natural hazards

El Niño comes of age(October 1997)

Fostering Climate Affairs (why now?)

• Climate issues:– Increasingly important to

governments, corporations, foundations and the public,

• Perceptions:– Climate anomalies are becoming

more frequent, more costly and more deadly

• Global warming:– Looming in the 21st century

The “Affairs” template

• Affairs: business, matters, activities• Business affairs, international affairs, rural affairs,

veteran affairs, etc.

• Here, I use the “Affairs” concept as a multidisciplinary catch-all phrase, a check list of sorts

• The central aspects include:• Science, impacts on ecosystems, impacts on societies,

politics, policy & law, economics, ethics & equity• Water affairs, desert affairs, coastal urban affairs, etc.

Global warming and extreme weather

Climate-sensitive sectors

• Food production• Crops• Fish• Livestock

• Water resources• Quantity• Quality

• Energy• Public health & safety• Economy• Environment• Other

Daily burden to fetch water and firewood

Africa –water gatherers India – firewood gatherers

What citizens should know

• Climate science• Society’s impacts on climate

• Climate impacts• On ecosystems• On societies

• Climate policy & law• Climate politics• Climate economics• Climate ethics & equity

US Global Change Research Program, 2000

How scientists see the climate system

Climate Science

• Understand the climate system

• Understand its components

IIASA

• Society is a component

Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue)

Before 1976 more blue than red; after 1976 more red than blue.Red : El NinoBlue: La Nina

Media Headlines Worldwide: El Niño 1997-98

Climate Impacts

• On land and sea• On societies

• Rich and Poor• Developed and Developing• North & South

• Human impacts on the atmosphere• Heat island effect• Greenhouse gas emissions

• Methods to separate natural from societal impacts

Extremes occur often on globe in any given year

Climate change More extremes, more frequency, more intensity, new locations

Hurricane Katrina(August 29, 2005)

Venezuelan Mud slidesDecember 1999