climate change impacts & vulnerability of water-dependent ......issued as part of jordan’s...

Climate Change Impacts & Vulnerability of

Water-dependent Sectors in the Arab Region

Key Findings of the RICCAR

Arab Climate Change Assessment Report

Carol Chouchani Cherfane

Chief, Water Resources Section; RICCAR Coordinator

ESCWA

IsDB-ESCWA EGM on Mainstreaming Climate Action into National Development

Planning in the Arab Region (Amman, 25-27 November 2019)

2

Intergovernmental mandates calling for & supportingClimate Change Assessment in the Arab Region

EnvironmentForeign Affairs &

PlanningMetWater Agriculture

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RICCAR

NegotiationsAssessment Adaptation Mitigation

Objective: To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater

resources in the Arab Region through a consultative regional

initiative that scientifically identifies the socio-economic and

environmental vulnerability caused by climate change impacts on

water resources based on regional specificities.

Purpose: To provide a common platform for assessing, addressing

and informing response to climate change impacts on freshwater

resources in the Arab region by serving as the basis for dialogue,

priority setting and policy formulation on climate change at the

regional level.

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RICCAR Partnerships

RICCAR Publication Series

GCM: Global Climate Modelling VA: Vulnerability Assessment

RCM: Regional Climate Modelling IM: Integrated Mapping

RHM: Regional Hydrological Modeling netcdf to ArcGIS

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Integrated Assessment

The Arab Domain

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From R.K Kolli, WMO

RICCAR EGM #2 (Beirut, 2010)

IPCC regional domains

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IPCC Assessment Report 5 – WGI: Annex I

Draft: 30 September 2013

SREX: Special Report on Managing the Risks of

Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance

Climate Change Adaptation

IPCC regional domains

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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)As first represented in IPCC AR5 Projections

High Emissions Scenario

Graph adapted from: Meinshausen et al.,2010

CORDEX

CORDEX

Extre

me

clim

ate

even

ts

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Regional Climate Modeling & Hydrological Modeling

Different

GCMs

Same RCP

300 km x 300 km

Ensembles

used to

reduce

uncertainty

at level of

RCMs &

RHMs

Ensembles

aggregate

findings of

different

RCMs &

RHMs

applied for

same RCP

& Domain

Temperature in the Arab region is increasing and is expected

to continue to increase until the end of the century.

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Precipitation trends are largely decreasing across the Arab region until the end of the century, though limited areas expected to exhibit an increase in the intensity and volume of precipitation.

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Extreme events indices

Extreme temperature indices Extreme precipitation indices

Index Full name Index Full name

SU Number of summer days CDD Maximum length of dry spell

SU35 Number of hot days CWD Maximum length of wet spell

SU40 Number of very hot days R10Annual count of 10 mm

precipitation days

TR Number of tropical nights R20Annual count of 20 mm

precipitation days

SDIISimple precipitation intensity

index

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Climate Impacts on Shared Water Resources

Variable RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Temp. 2.3◦C 4.8◦C

Precip. 3% 0%

Runoff -2% -12%

Euphrates River(1986-2005) : (2081-2100)

Integrated Vulnerability Assessment:

Sectors and Subsectors

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10

Sensitivity

indicators

20 Adaptive

Capacity

indicators

Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain

Water Availability

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Exposure

indicators

Reference Period (1986-2005)

Mid-Century RCP 4.5

End-Century RCP 4.5

End-Century RCP 8.5

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10

Sensitivity

indicators

20

Adaptive

Capacity

indicators

6

Exposure

indicators

Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain

Agriculture: Crops

Reference

Mid-Century RCP 4.5

End-Century RCP 4.5

End-Century RCP 8.5

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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain

Inland Flooding

Implic

atio

n fo

r Tra

nsport &

Infra

stru

ctu

re

Inland Flooding – Reference Period – Exposure

Inland Flooding – Reference Period – Adaptive Capacity

Inland Flooding – Reference Period – Vulnerability

Inland Flooding – Mid-Century – RCP 4.5 – Vulnerability

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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain

Heat StressIm

plic

atio

n fo

r Energ

y U

se

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Vulnerability Assessment

Heat Stress – Reference Period – Exposure

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Vulnerability Assessment

Heat Stress – Reference Period – Adaptive Capacity

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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain

Heat Stress – Reference Period – Vulnerability

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Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain

Heat Stress – End-Century – RCP 8.5 – Vulnerability

• Jordan – Ministry of Water and

Irrigation: Climate Change Policy

for a Resilient Water Sector Policy

issued as part of Jordan’s National

Water Strategy issued in 2016.

• Lebanon – Ministry of

Environment: Lebanon’s Third

National Communication to the

UNFCCC submitted in 2016.

• Lebanon / Tunisia / Sudan –

Ministries of Agriculture: Using

RICCAR data and integrated

vulnerability assessment tools for

assessing climate change impacts

on water resources and agricultural

sector.37

• State of Palestine – Environment

Quality Authority: State of

Palestine Initial National

Communication Report to the

UNFCCC submitted in 2016.

• Basin-level analyses: The

Collaborative Programme on the

Euphrates and Tigris builds on

RICCAR’s regional climate

modelling and hydrological

modelling outputs to support more

detailed analyses at the basin level.

• Egypt (MWRI), Kuwait (KISR),

Morocco (groundwater): Using

RICCAR modelling outputs to inform

national/sub-national studies.

RICCAR findings used to inform:

Regional Knowledge Hub

www.riccar.org

Regional Knowledge Hub: Data Portal

Thank You

chouchanicherfane@un.org

www.riccar.org www.unescwa.org www.unescwa.org/our-work/climate-change