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Climate driven changes in European vegetation as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS

Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project

Anneli Poska, Ben Smith, Dörte Lehsten

Preliminary results of VR LANDCLIM project: input a nd parameterisation

RCA based simulation of European vegetation

� DVGM: LPJ-Guess v. 2.1 in cohort mode (migration and land use are not implemented);

� Climate and CO2 parameters: RCA (Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model) data for two time-slices (6000 BP and 1800 AD);

� Soil data: soil texture code from CRU database;� PFT parametrisation: standard, species based setup for

Europe (Hickler et al 2010).

� Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) attempt to describe patterns and trends in vegetation structure and functioning based on a representation of basic ecosystem processes, their interactions and response to abiotic drivers

� LPJ – DGVM (Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, Sitch et al., 2003) is a generalized, process-based model of vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry designed for global applications.

� LPJ - Guess (General Ecosystem Simulator, Smith et al., 2001) uses individual based ”gap-model” approach and is optimised to study regional changes on decennial-centennial timescales.

Dynamic vegetation models (DVM)

LPJ-GUESS: A modular, individual-based process-orie nted ecosystem model*

*Smith et al. 2001 Global Ecology and Biogeography 10: 621

Soil organicmatter

Soil biogeochemistry

Populationdynamics

& disturbance

Physiology,phenology& growth

Vegetation

Climate(temp, prec, radiation)

CO2 Soil textureStand (grid cell)

Plant Functional Types (PFTs)

� PFT (Plant Functional Types) are used by DGVMs for vegetation representation. PFT is a term that groups plants according to their function in ecosystem and their use of resources and can embrace:

� Taxonomic groups such as willows, maples, sedges or grasses;� Groups based on life-form characteristics e.g., trees, shrubs, herbs,

lianas, graminoids, etc.� Groups based on specific combination of physiological,

morphological, biochemical and bioclimatic properties e.g., boreal evergreen shade intolerant tree.

Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch

Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2

replicate patches in variousstages of development

Patch0.1 ha

tree grass

crown area

height

fine roots

leaves

LAI

sapwoodheartwood

0-50 cm50-100 cm

leaves / LAI

fineroots

stemdiameter

crown area

height

fine roots

leaves

LAI

sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood

0-50 cm50-100 cm

leaves / LAI

fineroots

stemdiameter

LPJ-GUESS: Representation of vegetation (cohort mod e)

Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch

Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2

replicate patches in variousstages of development

Patch0.1 ha

tree grass

crown area

height

fine roots

leaves

LAI

sapwoodheartwood

0-50 cm50-100 cm

leaves / LAI

fineroots

stemdiameter

crown area

height

fine roots

leaves

LAI

sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood

0-50 cm50-100 cm

leaves / LAI

fineroots

stemdiameter

Average individual for plant functional typeor species cohort in patch

Modelled area (stand)10 ha - 2500 km2

replicate patches in variousstages of development

Patch0.1 ha

tree grass

crown area

height

fine roots

leaves

LAI

sapwoodheartwood

0-50 cm50-100 cm

leaves / LAI

fineroots

stemdiameter

crown area

height

fine roots

leaves

LAI

sapwoodheartwoodsapwoodheartwood

0-50 cm50-100 cm

leaves / LAI

fineroots

stemdiameter

Parameter

max establishment rate (ha −−−−1 yr −−−−1)

bioclimatic distribution

leaf:sapwood area ratio (m 2 cm −−−−2)

leaf phenology

crown spreading

boreal

evergreen

0.3

150

1250

temperate

summergreen

0.4

250

1250

boreal-temperate

summergreen

0.4

250

2500

no limits

summergreen-raingreen

-

-

-

LPJ-GUESS: Plant Functional Types (PFTs)

� LPJ-GUESS uses two types of PFT groupings:

� Taxonomic (species based);� Physiological, morphological and bioclimatic properties based.

VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables

Tw

min

(ºC

)T

cmin

(ºC

)

VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic variables

Sw

cont

GD

D5

VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche ( Picea abies)

RCA 6000 BP

PFT: Picea abies(global PFT: TBE1)

Bioclimatic limits:tcmin_est -30tcmax_est -1.5twmin_est 5gdd5min_est 600

Tcmin(ºC) Twmin(ºC)

GDD5 Cover fraction

VR LANDCLIM project: Bioclimatic niche ( Fagus sylvatica)

RCA 6000 BP

PFT: Fagus sylvatica(global PFT: TBS)

Bioclimatic limits:tcmin_est -3.5tcmax_est 6twmin_est 5gdd5min_est 1500

Tcmin(ºC) Twmin(ºC)

GDD5 Cover fraction

VR LANDCLIM project: LPJ-GUESS output

6000

BP

1800

AD

Dominant global PFT Dominant RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction

� Migration (based on preliminary results of ECOCHANGE project)

� Picea abies� Fagus sylvatica

� Land-use� Kaplan (Kaplan et al 2009)� HYDE (Klein Goldewijk 2001)

VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing

VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration)

RCA 6000 BP PFT: Picea abies (global: TBE1)

Cover fraction Predicted migration Corrected cover fraction

VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (migration)

6000

BP

1800

AD

Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction

VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (land use)

6000

BP

1800

AD

HYDE Kaplan

VR LANDCLIM project: Post-processing (Kaplan land u se)

6000

BP

1800

AD

Global PFT RCA PFT Veg. cover fraction

VR LANDCLIM project: Land-cover for RCA

6000

BP

1800

ADOriginal Migration Migration and landuse

Thank You!