comparison of new load profile models 14-month models vs 21-month models ercot load profiling staff

Comparison of New Load Profile Models14-Month Models vs 21-Month Models

ERCOT Load Profiling Staff

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Background Information

• ERCOT staff discovered error with LRS analysis– Error was misclassification of some ESIIDs with profile

type migrations occurring since the time of sample selection

– Misclassification resulted in improper sample post-stratification

• Models built from LRS means were incorrect

• LRS analysis was corrected

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Background Information

• New models developed

• Original analysis covered 14 months (Nov ‘04 – Dec ‘05)

• New analysis covered 21 months (Nov ‘04 – July ‘06)

• Intent of this analysis is to examine and quantify the differences between the 14-month and 21-month models

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PROFILE_TYPE COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST

RESLOWR minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor

RESHIWR minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor

BUSHILF some major minor major minor minor some some

BUSLOLF minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor

BUSMEDLF minor minor some major minor minor some minor

BUSNODEM minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor

NEW PROFILE DIFFERENCES - 14 MONTH VS 21 MONTH

Comparison of New Load Profile Models14-Month Models vs 21-Month Models

Migration TypeVoltage Level

Stratum Count Migration TypeVoltage Level

Stratum Count

BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 1 3807BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 5 628BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 9 51BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 13 1BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 2 998BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 6 338BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 10 15BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 3 442BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 7 140BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 11 5BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 15 2

BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 5 1809 BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 5 1809BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 6 595 BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 6 595BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 7 291 BUSMED to BUSHI SEC 7 291BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 9 169 BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 9 169BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 10 62 BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 10 62BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 11 31 BUSLO to BUSHI SEC 11 31BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 13 107 BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 13 107BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 14 89 BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 14 89BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 15 246 BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC 15 246

BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 21 55BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 25 6BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 29 1BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 22 8BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 26 3BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 23 3BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 27 1

BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 25 11 BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 25 11BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 26 1 BUSMED to BUSHI PRI 26 1BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 29 1 BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 29 1BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 30 2 BUSLO to BUSHI PRI 30 2

PRI 21 62

14 Month Model 21 Month Model

BUSHI to BUSHI

BUSHILF_NCENT

BUSHI to BUSHI PRI 22 11

423BUSHI to BUSHI PRI

BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 2 1351

BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 3 589

BUSHI to BUSHI SEC 1 4487

Misclassifications for BUSHILF_NCENT

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Stratum Count Stratum Count1 4487 1 38072 1351 2 9983 589 3 4425 1809 5 24376 595 6 9337 291 7 4319 169 9 220

10 62 10 7711 31 11 3613 107 13 10814 89 14 8915 246 15 24821 62 21 5522 11 22 823 4 23 325 11 25 1726 1 26 427 0 27 129 1 29 230 2 30 2

BUSHILF_NCENT

BUSMED to BUSHI PRI

BUSLO to BUSHI PRI

BUSHI to BUSHI SEC

BUSMED to BUSHI SEC

BUSLO to BUSHI SEC

BUSNODEM to BUSHI SEC

BUSHI to BUSHI PRI

14 Month Model 21 Month ModelMigration Type

Voltage Level

Strata Impacted by Misclassification for BUSHILF_NCENT

PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY MINOR DIFFERENCES

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RESLOWR_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

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RESLOWR_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

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RESHIWR_COASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

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RESHIWR_COASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

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BUSLOLF_SCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

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BUSLOLF_SCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

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BUSNODEM_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

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BUSNODEM_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

21 Month Model

Minor Differences

PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY

SOME DIFFERENCES

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BUSMEDLF_FWESTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSMEDLF_FWESTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.4%

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BUSMEDLF_SOUTHMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSMEDLF_SOUTHMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.4%

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BUSHILF_COASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSHILF_COASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.9%

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BUSHILF_SOUTHMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSHILF_SOUTHMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.9%

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BUSHILF_WESTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSHILF_WESTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Some Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.6%

PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY MAJOR DIFFERENCES

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BUSMEDLF_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Major Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSMEDLF_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Major Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.7%

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BUSHILF_EASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Major Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSHILF_EASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Major Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.1%

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BUSHILF_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Major Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

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BUSHILF_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD

Major Differences

14 Month Model

Scaled 14 Month

21 Month Model

Scaled 14 month vs

21 month R2 = 99.7%

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Findings…..

• 14-month and 21-month models show only minor differences in 40 of the 48 profile type / weather zone combinations

• Of the 8 profile type / weather zone combinations with differences only 3 had major differences

• Scaled 14-month models were virtually identical to the 21-month models… differences were mostly magnitude and not shape related

• Repeating the ERCOT test settlement runs is not likely to result in different findings regarding the Option 3-M transition recommendation