connected residential hvac and water heating

Connected Residential

HVAC and Water Heating

Catie Dimas

September 19, 2018

CEE Industry Partners Meeting

New Orleans, LA

Connecting Potential Value

Streams to Real World Outcomes

2

Meeting Ground Rules

Wear your “CEE hat” and consider how can we maximize

our effectiveness by working together

Adhere to the CEE Meeting Guidelines

• Disclosure of all affiliations and potential conflicts of interest

• Non-disclosure of proceedings

Support interactive participation

• State name & organization (for phone participants)

• Limit outside distractions

• Provide an opportunity for others to speak

Maintain a judgment free environment

Make use of a “parking lot”

3

Agenda

4

Session Objectives

Identify grid and customer

benefits, as well as any areas

in need of further development

Discuss how the

voluntary uptake of

consistent

connected criteria

(or program

design) may

achieve both local

impact as well as

broader industry

shifts

Build better

collective

understanding of the

field performance of

connected

residential HVAC

and water heaters

5

Introductions

Name,

organization

Phone participants

6

Integrated Home Platform

Integrated

Home

Platform

PRODUCTS

Central HVAC

Appliances

Water Heating

Pool Pumps

Lighting

CAPABILITY

Compatibility

Data Exchange

Consumer Engagement

BENEFITS

Energy Efficiency

Load Management

Behavior Change

Customer Satisfaction

7

Current Work

Res Water Heating

Initiative • Updates approved in March

2018

– Combines gas + electric

– Energy efficiency

performance: Tier 1, Tier 2,

Advanced Tier (HPWHs)

– Optional connected criteria

Res HVAC Initiative • Updates planned for 2019

• Anticipated modifications

– Energy efficiency performance

– Quality installation

– Connected thermostat

program guidance

– Optional connected criteria

Other future opportunities to foster member + industry

collaboration- E.g. ENERGY STAR program and comment processes

8

Operating Hypotheses

Connected HVAC and water heating systems

can save customers money and enable better

energy management, and further serve as

assets for grid balancing/load management

9

Field Performance and

Lessons Learned

10

CEE Member Trends

Source: 2017 CEE Connected Program and Pilot Summary

*HVAC data not collected in 2017

11

Featured Case Study: Regional

Water Heating DR Project

PNW Regional Water Heater Pilot

Conrad Eustis

Sept 19, 2018

Results of smart water heaters used in a 24x7x365 demand response pilot

Portland General Electric

California curtails solar; PNW curtails wind

• Solar & wind

produce energy

in limited hours

• Output varies

• Energy with no

place to go

• Red area =

4,400 MWa(~twice PGE daily load!)

2

Reference: Investigating a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard [RPS] in

California, Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 101 Montgomery St.

San Francisco, CA 94104. Jan 2014

Overgeneration

3.6 million water

heaters in the

PNW—most

will get replaced

over 15 years.

A 1,400 MW/

2,500 MWh

resource

opportunity…..

(but not cost effective)

3

Portland General Electric

Barriers to Residential DR at scale

Customer perspective

1. Difficult customer experience

2. Concern that lifestyle will be affected

3. Basic $ incentive not enough motivation

for many

Utility perspective

4. Cost to physically connect one device

4

$$$$

Credit: http://maxpixel.freegreatpicture.com

Portland General Electric

ANSI/CTA-2045 to the rescue• CTA-2045 is the “one” and it’s

gaining momentum

• Creates consistent customer

experience

• Enables simple implementation for

provider (customer installed comm. link)

• Standard creates volume for

hardware, volume creates low cost

• Solves barriers 1, 2, & 4

• Enables every other standard, and

won’t be obsolete

• Solves every security issue

5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHMssq6_R94

Portland General Electric

CTA-2045 in Action (thru adapters)

6

Portland General Electric

Catch 22

• Water heater manufactures sell

commodity, in national market, to

customers (not utilities)

• Customers are not asking for “smart”

water heaters

• Utilities have sufficient benefit to cover

cost of standard on water heater,

but…..

• Utility market shares too small to affect

manufacturer’s plan

7

manufacturer

utility

Portland General Electric

Solution…., maybe

• Create standard CTA-2045 2006 to 2012 (success)

• Test standard in pilots 2012 to 2015 (success)

• Ask for fed to require standard 2014 (failed)

• Prove cost effective for entire Northwest 2018 (success)

• Create market transformation plan 2018 (success)

• Next Up: Sell plan in 2019

8

NW regional pilot:

The details

9

Portland General Electric

Participants• Project funding: $1 million BPA TI 336 (BPA & Utility labor/expense not included)

• Project Leads: Tony Koch, BPA & Conrad Eustis, PGE

• Communication suppliers: A.O. Smith, General Electric, e-Radio

• Major Support Organizations: NEEA & PNNL

Utility Participants:

1. Portland General Electric

2. Tacoma Power

3. Puget Sound Energy

4. Clark Public Utilities

5. Emerald PUD

6. Snohomish PUD

7. Springfield Utility Board

8. Franklin PUD

10

We recruited customers:

180 heat pump water heaters

100 resistance water heaters

Portland General Electric

Objectives

• Energy shifting 24x7, 365 days/yr.

• Quantify ▪ peak load mitigation

▪ energy shifting

• Customer acceptance

• Regional education

• Market transformation plan

• Bus. case to justify MT plan

11

Un

de

r C

ove

r

Portland General Electric

Project uses smart water heaters

12

Photo Credits: General

Electric and A.O. Smith

“Smart” =• modular communication

interface

• OEM defines alonetic response

• DR commands ignored to

maintain sufficient hot water

Low Cost only if:• Standard Physical Socket

(e.g. CTA-2045, USB, etc.)

• Standard format for data packets

• Standard initial exchange of

information• Does NOT depend on DR language

“Smart” Status:• Only 5 to 10% of tanks sold

• All have proprietary interfaces

• Need smart adapter

Portland General Electric 13

Portland General Electric

Important Lesson Learned

• Using Customer’s Wi-Fi network to return data a

major headache

▪Had to touch about 2% of customers per week

▪At average of 10 minutes each

▪Extrapolate to future program cost: An average of 50 cents per

customer per month for support

▪Bad customer experience: resembles nagging some customer have to

be reminded more than once

▪PGE launching a multi-family program and will use 4G LTE

▪Example problems:o Changing out modem/routers

o Changing Wi-FI passwords

o Participant complaints about slowed internet speed (justified or not)

14

Portland General Electric

• 50% of complaints

occurred when not

running events

• 3 types of events

• Energy Shift

• Peak Demand day

• Grid emergency

Autonomous design works!

15

• About 600 curtailment events in 220 days

Portland General Electric

Customer Satisfaction• 280 Participants (100 Elec Resistance and 180 HPWH)

• Ran out of hot water last year?▪40% never

▪50% couple times

• How satisfied were you with the Pilot?▪83% Very

▪15% Somewhat

• Likely to participate in DR Program in the future?▪72% very likely

▪24% Somewhat likely

• Primary Motivation to joining the study:▪38% Amount of incentive

▪46% knowing that I’m helping to avoid a new power plant

▪43% knowing that I could influence more clean renewable energy on the grid

▪26% Getting an annual report that quantify my contribution to the CO2 reduction

16

Market

Transformation

Plan

17

Portland General Electric

Vision: What does a transformed market look like?

• All electric water heaters (standard electric and heat pump) over 40

gallons shipped to the Pacific Northwest have an open-source

communication interface (CTA-2045)

• ENERGY STAR and the DOE recognize and promote ANSI/CTA-2045

• Aggregators leverage DR capabilities of CTA 2045

• Utilities leverage DR existing capabilities

• New IoT models emerge in home

18

Portland General Electric

Proposed Timeline (best case)

19

Portland General Electric

302 MW by 2039 (26.5% adoption)

20

Portland General Electric

Market Transformation Cost• $30 million for incremental tanks cost over nine years

▪Until we can get codes in place to require CTA-2045 on tanks shipped to the

Pacific NW, we’ll have to buy down the incremental cost on tanks shipped from

the factory with CTA-2045 so they will be competitive in the market.

▪Assume we’ll need to pay these costs thru 2028; working for codes sooner

• Non-reoccurring engineering (NRE) $1 mil. over four years

• Field tests: specification, method & certification $1.4 mil over 4 years

• Project Management $3.5M over fourteen years

• Education and awareness $4.3M over fourteen years

▪Supply chain

▪Customers

▪Aggregators

▪Utilities

▪CTA 2045 branding label tied to long term entity

21

Preliminary

Results

22

Portland General Electric

Peak Demand Reduction Results• Based on ten coldest days in January thru March 2018; Ten hottest days in summer

• Results in hourly average Watt reduction per tank

• Most resistance tanks in low income, may not be typical

23

Winter Peak Results

3-Hour Shed

Watts

Reduction 95% CI

Heat Pump Water Heaters

A.M. peak 223 ±27

P.M. peak 165 ±31

Resistive Water Heaters

A.M. peak 374 ±65

P.M. peak 321 ±74

Summer Peak Results

4-Hour Shed

Watt

Reduction 95% CI

Heat Pump Water Heaters

P.M. peak 85 ±10

Resistive Water Heaters

P.M. peak 347 ±29

Time

Winter/Spring

Grid Emergency

Watt Reduction 95% CI

Summer

Grid Emergency

Watt Reduction 95% CI

Heat Pump Water Heaters

A.M. period 244 ±32 122 ±20

P.M. period 167 ±43 96 ±11

Resistive Water Heaters

A.M. period 562 ±69 393 ±50

P.M. period 563 ±105 389 ±39

Grid

Emergency

Results

Portland General Electric

Winter/Spring Energy Shift Results• April 2 thru June 10

• Average benefit in Wh per tank

• Most events were 3 hours

• Learned we can count on running at least two, 4-hour events any day

24

Time Block Watt-hr Std. Dev.

Heat Pump Water Heaters

7a.m. to 11a.m. 512 184

11a.m. to 2p.m. 418 101

2p.m. to 5p.m. 281 43

5p.m. to 9p.m. 330 50

9p.m. to 1a.m. 394 121

1a.m. to 7a.m. 222 96

Resistive Water Heaters

7a.m. to 11a.m. 1162 229

11a.m. to 2p.m. 1155 305

2p.m. to 5p.m. 982 290

5p.m. to 9p.m. 1218 185

9p.m. to 1a.m. 884 187

1a.m. to 7a.m. 433 149

Portland General Electric

Business Case Results

25

Portland General Electric

Not included: Soft Benefits

• Use of thermal storage in tanks to shift load to “greener”

generation reduces CO2. At $50 per ton, worth about

($6 million/yr 900,000 water heaters. )

• Locational value

• Ancillary services: frequency regulation, load following,

black start, spinning reserve, etc.

• Economic dispatch: a least cost means to sink excess

generation

26

Portland General Electric

Next Steps

•Report Published Oct 31

•Data available for further research▪ available in a month or two

▪1 minute data on 180 HPWHs, 100 electric resistance Jan 22 thru

Aug 26

•Utility invitation to participate in market

transformation effort

27

Conrad Eustis

28

Questions

• Conrad.eustis@pgn.com

• 503 464 7016

Portland General Electric

New concept• For first 120 years

▪ Energy flows one way to customer

▪ Customer loads and generation

serve best interests of customer

• By 2008, renewables at scale

everyone talks about storage

• By 2010, Idea: many loads can

respond to price and

information signals to help

integrate renewable

generation.

• No word describes concept

“Appliance”

Then: 1890 to 2010

Electricity on

demand!

Customer commands; device gives

Smart

“Appliance”

Future:Electricity with

Grid Requests..10010110…

Customer inputs flexibility→

device serves customer & grid!

Portland General Electric

Word for an emerging concept

30

Portland General Electric

Today

• Easy for customer to curtail

grid messages

• Logic ensures hot water

supply

Improvements for tomorrow

• Customer input for more

comfort or more savings

• Learns peak hot water

demand periods

Alonetic means improved customer experience

Set & Forget Design

31

Portland General Electric

1. A water storage tank where

heating devices are controlled

by electronic program in tank.

(I.e. not bimetallic switches)

2. A water heater designed to

accept external signals as an

input to the tank’s control logic

3. Customer inputs flexibility

Imagine an alonetic water heater

32

Cold

Tank

control

logic

Customer

Preferences

External

Input

Tank

Sensors

Use

History

Heating

Elements

Smart Hot Water Heater

Hot

Hourly Price Forecast

E.g. OR

Messages to inform load shifting

Moore’s law comes to load behavior here

12

Field Performance and Lessons

Learned (All Participants)

What experiences has your organization had

with residential connected HVAC and/or

connected water heating systems?

13

Discussion, Call to Action,

and Next Steps

14

Discussion

What needs to happen next to scale up these

technologies?

• Where should the primary focus be and why?

– Examples: data sharing, DR capabilities, etc.

What can we do collectively or individually to

change the current market situation?

• Is there a way to make individual programs better to

increase overall effectiveness?

– Examples: collectively identify best practices for

performance, consistency in program approach

15

Discussion

Are there lessons learned from the electric

side that may help inform emerging gas

DR efforts?

What benefit streams would be most

valued from connected HVAC and water

heating systems, and why?

16

Discussion

Could the combination of connected water

heaters and HVAC potentially enable

interactive effects in a way that’s beneficial

from a grid perspective?

17

Discussion

Customer benefits

• How does the customer journey progress

from high efficiency to connected

functionality?

• What does your consumer research suggest

is helpful?

18

Discussion

Res Water Heating

Initiative Support• What types of

supplemental resources

might CEE develop to help

support program and

industry uptake?

Res HVAC Initiative

Updates (2019)• Is optional connected

criteria still a priority? What

might that look like?

• How should the initiative

address smart controls?

19

Call to Action

Driving market change: unique strategies?

Program guidance?

Implementation?

Others identified during the session?

20

CEE Res Water

Heating Initiative

deployment and

adoption support

activities, e.g.

program guidance

Water Heating

CEE Res HVAC

Initiative updates, e.g.

quality installation,

optional connected

criteria

HVAC

Based on call to

action discussion

Other

Wrap-up and Next Steps

21

Contacts

George ChapmanSenior Program Manager

617-337-9262

gchapman@cee1.org

Alice RosenbergSenior Program Manager

617-337-9287

arosenberg@cee1.org

Catie DimasProgram Manager

617-337-9283

cdimas@cee1.org

22

Supplemental Slides