crime2

Crimes against property and persons

criminaljustice.state.ny.us

Crimes against property • Robbery• Burglary• Larceny• Theft• White collar crimes:

– Fraud– Embezzlement – Bribe– Insider trading– File sharing- movies, games, music, software– Identity theft – credit cards, checks– Online gambling, child pornography – Copyright infringement

Market for Insurance

oD1

Quantity

S1Price

Q1 Q2

P1

P2

D2

Increase in crime

Rise in demand for insurance

Price and sales increase

o

D1

S 1

S2

P

Q1Q2

P1

P2

Market for jewelry

Quantity

Rise in shop-lifting

Sellers install expensive security equipment

Supply shifts left

Price of jewelry rises

Quantity sold falls

Works like a tax on goods

Cost of security cameras

Burden of crime – who pays the tax? Producers or consumers?

• Depends on who is more price-sensitive

• Less price-sensitive side pays higher share of the extra cost of security equipment

Quantity

Pric

e

Q2 Q1

Elastic and Inelastic Demand

Quantity

Q2 Q1

P2

P1

P2

P1

Price Inelastic Demand

D

D

Price Elastic

Demand

Elasticity = percentage change in Q for a 1% change in P

Demand price inelastic

P

Qd0

Steep Curve:DemandRelativelyInelastic

1. Few close substitutes2. The good is a necessity3. Small part of buyer’s budget4. Short time period 5. Addiction

Demand price elastic

P

Qd

Flat Curve:DemandRelativelyElastic

0

1. Many close substitutes2. The good is a luxury3. Large part of a buyer’s budget4. Long period of time

Extreme Cases

Perfectly Inelastic Demand

P

0

D1

Elasticity = 0

Q

No matter how much price changes, consumers purchase the same amount of the good.

Example: Insulin, addictive substance

PRICE ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY

Es=

Percentage change in quantitysupplied of good X

Percentage change in the price of good X

• More elastic supply means firms can change supply in larger quantities when price changes.– Beach-front land supply is inelastic.– Books, cars, manufactured goods are elastic.– Supply is more elastic in the long run

• Anything that can affect a firms ability to change production easily affects the elasticity of supply.

Extreme Cases

Perfectly Inelastic SupplyP

0

S

Elasticity = 0

Q

No matter how much price changes, fixed quantity is available for sale.

Example: Picasso paintings, land

Po

Pm

P

Q

D1

Qo

D2

An increase indemand with inelastic supplycauses… large increase in price

Sm

Po

P

Q

D1

Qo

D2

PL

An increase indemand with elastic supply- Smaller price increase

SL

QL

Quantity

Pric

e

Q*

PS

PB

Who will pay the tax, buyers or sellers?

QuantityQ*

P*

PS

P*PB

Inelastic Demand

D

D

S S

Elastic Demand

Part of taxpaid by buyers

Part of taxpaid by sellers

Inelastic demand: higher share of taxes passed on to buyers via higher prices

Elastic demand: higher share of taxes is paid by seller

Crime against persons

• Murder– Rational and “passion”

• Aggravated assault (severe body injury)• Rape

– Most are planned

• Annual Causes of Death in the United StatesFrom www.drugwarfacts.org

Intent important to an understanding of the Intent important to an understanding of the dynamic process leading to deathdynamic process leading to death

Confrontationand Choice

Intent Outcome

KILL(Premeditated Success - Homicideor 1st degreemurder) Failure - Assault

INJURE Success - Assault(Assault)

Failure - No Injury Threaten Homicide 2nd

or Manslaughter Could escalate to one of aboveExcept for 1st degree Murder, the path is Except for 1st degree Murder, the path is

unclear - can be uncertain until the very end - may change in the processunclear - can be uncertain until the very end - may change in the process

Capital punishment• To deter potential murderers

– Except murders of passion or under influence – Irrational : No cost – benefit analysis applied

• Trials that involve death penalty are more expensive – $300K - over $1million– Some trial cost as much as it costs to lock up criminal

for 40 years

• Inequality: not everyone can afford a competent lawyer

• Mistakes

Expenses for death penalty trials• Expenses of capitally-prosecuted cases since 1978 cost Maryland taxpayers

$186 million, or $37.2 million for each of the state’s 5 executions since the state reenacted the death penalty

• average cost to Maryland taxpayers for reaching a single death sentence is $3 million, or $1.9 million more than the cost of a non-death penalty case. – This includes investigation, trial, appeals, and incarceration costs

• Average cost of defending a trial in a federal death case is $620,932, or 8 times that of a federal murder case in which the death penalty is not sought

• Defendants with low representation costs were more than twice as likely to receive a death sentence– Defendants with less than $320,000 in terms of representation costs (the

bottom 1/3 of federal capital trials) had a 44% chance of receiving a death sentence at trial

– defendants whose representation costs were higher than $320,000 (the remaining 2/3 of federal capital trials) had 19% chance of being sentenced to death.

• References to studies quoted are listed on www.deathpenaltyinfo.org

France was thelast WesternEuropean Countryto abandon the death Penalty in1977

What purpose did the execution serve?

• Video of Saddam Hussein’s execution http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7532034279766935521

• Deterrence?

• Detention? No

• Rehabilitation? No

• Retribution?

Execution Witness Area

Execution Chamber

GasChamber

1976SupremeCourtReinstates DeathPenalty

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Peak to Peak: 50 years

Executions in the US 1930-2007

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs

Peak to Peak: About 65 years

U.S.

Clearance Ratio, US 1976-2005

Why are so few murderers who receive the death sentence executed?

• FBI's Uniform Crime Report (UCR) & Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) :

• 1 execution for every 1600 murders, or 0.06% • Time on death row : > 10 years

Death sentence appeases the proponents.Few executions appeases the opponents.

Evidence Against the Death Evidence Against the Death Penalty Being a DeterrentPenalty Being a Deterrent

Contiguous StatesMaine: no death penaltyVermont: death penaltyNew Hampshire: death penalty

Little Variation in the Homicide RateSource: Study by Thorsten Sellin in

Hugo Bedau, The Death Penalty in America

www.deathpenaltyinfo.org

Null Hypothesis:Null Hypothesis: The Defendent is INNOCENT.The Defendent is INNOCENT.As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.

Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendent is GUILTY.Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendent is GUILTY.

Distribution ofdefendentswho areinnocent

Distribution of guilty defendents

0.0 Standard of quality for evidence 1.0Certaintyof Guilt

(Certainty ofInnocence)

A B

ArbitraryStandard Set Innocent,Innocent,

found Guiltyfound GuiltyType I ErrorType I Error

Guilty,Guilty,found Innocentfound InnocentType II ErrorType II Error

S*

• What is more costly for society:• convicting an innocent man?• allowing a guilty man to go free?

Guns and homicide• Gun is the most popular weapon of choice• Choice to Use the Weapon

– Not made in advance in all but Murder 1– The assailant may be unsure of own intent– May only want to threaten– May be provoked to use– May be deterred from using

• Control is all important at this stageGun Violence -> 35,000 deaths per year

Treatment Cost of Gunshot wounds: $63 Billion/yrSelective denial of purchase and possession can reduce the risks of criminal activity by 20-30%

Recession and crime

• Incomes and legal employment fall • Alcohol and drug use rises• Fewer resources for crime prevension as tax

revenues decline

Nikolai Kondratieff (1892-1938)Brought to attention in Joseph Schumpeter’s BusinessCycles (1939)

NY Recidivism Trends