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Current and Emerging Threat
of CBRN-E Terrorism
Restricted
Dr. Rohan Gunaratna Professor of Security Studies S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Nanyang Technological University
The Global Threat • Anthrax is the most favored terrorist weapon
• Two dozen groups are interested to develop CBRN
weapons
• Al Qaeda, Tawhid Wal Jihad, Jemaah Islamiyah and a few
other groups invested in the development CBRN weapons
• Saudi Cleric issued a fatwa justifying the use of CBRN
weapons in 2003
Al Qaeda Intent
• Al Qaeda developed a WMD Committee led by Mamdouth
Salim alias Abu Hajir al Iraqi by 1993
• Bin Laden requested his personal pilot Essam al Ridi al
Masri to learn crop dusting
• Procurement attempts in Sudan (Uranium canister),
Germany (red mercury), and FSU were unsuccessful
Al Qaeda’s Specialist Projects
• Al Qaeda developed separate chemical and biological warfare programs.
• Midhat Mursial al Sayid Uma alias Abu Khebab al Masri headed the chemical and toxins program in Derunda complex
• Mustafa Setmarian Nasar alias Abu Musab al Suri alias Umar Abd al Hakim and Abu Musab Al Zarkawi expanded and operationalized these projects Westward
• Al Qaeda established links with Pakistani scientists, both nuclear weapons specialists and biochemists.
Al Qaeda’s Interest in Anthrax
• Al Qaeda’s interest to manufacture Anthrax triggered by the
US Defence Secretary Cohen appearing on US television
with a five pound bag of sugar stating the dangers of
Anthrax.
• Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, Deputy leader of Al Qaeda and the
most influential strategist of the global jihad movement’s
remarks.
Al Qaeda’s Anthrax Program
• Al Qaeda recruited Dr Abdur Rauf, a British
qualified scientist at Pakistan’s CISIR to establish the
foundation for its Anthrax Program
• Dr Rauf visited Level 3 advanced security lab in the
UK and was about to gain access to the most
dangerous pathogens
Al Qaeda Requested JI Assistance
• Al Qaeda leadership requested Issamudin Ridduan alias Hambali, an Indonesian cleric, to recruit a scientist
• Hambali hired Yazid Sufaat, a member of JI and KMM, who participated in Project Natal.
• Sufaat, a Malaysian retired Army Captain and a US trained biochemist in January 2001 was selected to lead the program
• Sufaat, also the owner of Medical Green Laboratories and Infocus Tech, also provided his condominium for the 9-11 planning meeting and provided sanctuary and support to three 9-11 hijackers
Al Qaeda Anthrax Program disrupted
in October 2001
• With US-led coalition intervention in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda
was forced to abandon its anthrax lab in Kandahar in Oct. 2001
• Al Qaeda planned to relocate the Anthrax program to Bogor,
Indonesia
• Denial of sanctuary in Afghanistan and the arrest of Suffat by
Malaysian Special Branch ended Al Qaeda’s anthrax program
Recoveries from Anthrax lab in
Kandahar
• Equipment
• Over 100 journal papers
•Al Qaeda Biological Weapons Manual
JI-Chem-Bio Manual
• Recovered from the safe house of Taufiq Rifqi
• Manual demonstrates intent, no capability
• Manual is compiled from formulae available on the internet
• As safety measures and precautions are not taken, if the manual is used, it is likely to kill the manufacturer
• Our assessment of the manual has not been publicized
Current and Future Trends
• Over 90% of the terrorist attacks are using the gun and the
bomb
• Terrorist groups have demonstrated both the intention and
the capability to develop unconventional weapons
• Terrorist groups are only away from recruiting a
COMPETENT bio-chemist from developing a bio weapon
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