curtin university sustainability policy (cusp) institute pb-cusp alliance electric vehicles and...

Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute

PB-CUSP Alliancewww.sustainability.curtin.edu.au

Electric Vehicles and their Renewable Connection

How Australia Can Take Part in the Green Revolution

Dr Andrew Simpson, ASDI Conversation Series – 10 June 2009

Electric cars - Now! http://www.sahkoautot.fi/eng

Outline

• Background

• Short history of transport and energy systems

• A vision for plug-in electric-drive vehicles (EVs) in a new paradigm of sustainable communities

• Global enabling factors:– Lithium-ion batteries– Mass-market EVs– Smart grids– Renewable energy– Green stimulus packages

• Barriers and Opportunities for Australia

• How is CUSP pursuing this vision?

Andrew Background

20th Century:Age of the combustion engine

21st Century:Age of the electric vehicle

Lower population densities, large travel distances.Higher population densities, shrinking cities, falling

VKT, smart growth.

Larger vehicles with high performance and long endurance.

Smaller, pedestrian-friendly vehicles.

Abundant, indigenous petroleum. Peak oil and price volatility. Geo-political conflict.

Exhaust emissions soaked up by atmosphere.Car tailpipes less-smelly than horses.

Urban smog and chronic health problems.

Global warming hadn’t been invented yet Climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Nationalised electric grids, centralized and subsidized

Privatised electric grids, traded on open markets.

Electricity provided on-demand Extreme peak demand growth, T&D bottlenecks.

“Dirty” electricity – emissions soaked up by atmosphere

Mandatory targets for renewable energy

A vision for EVs in sustainable communities

Plug-in EVs

Transit-orienteddevelopment

Building efficiency and zero-waste

Onsite water and renewable energy

Smart grid

Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns

Cumulative Distribution of Daily Driving Distances in Australia

Sydney – 87% drive less than 100km

Adelaide – 98% drive less than 100km

Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns

US VMT plateau in 2006, reducing since 2008

Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns

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Plug-In Vehicle Utility Factor - 2001 vs 1995

2001 NHTS

1995 NPTS

Plug-in vehicle utility is increasing as typical driving distances reduce.

Enabling Technology: Li-Ion BatteriesCARB expert panel (2007): “High energy Li-Ion technology has good

potential to meet all performance requirements of EVs with batteries of modest weight…cell and battery technology designed for these applications are likely to also meet cycle life goals.”

NB: Not all Li-Ion batteries are created equal.

Li-Ion Battery Charging and SafetyCharging• Li-ion battery charging rates depend

on chemistry and anode/cathode design

• Most batteries can charge in <60min, some batteries can charge in <10min.

• Charging supply is usually the bottleneck

Safety• Li-ion battery safety also depends on

chemistry and anode/cathode design• The preferred automotive chemistry

(Li-ion nanophosphate) is inherently safer and cannot go into thermal runaway.

• Monitoring/management is critical for some other Li-Ion chemistries

Enabling Factor: Mass-produced EVs

NB: Established car companies don’t always get it right.

Chevy Volt PHEV – 60km Toyota FT-EV – 80km Mitsubishi MiEV – 125km

Ford Focus EV – 160kmMini EV – 240kmMercedes BlueZERO EV – 200km

Enabling Factor: New EV Companies

TH!NK City EV – 180km Aptera 2e EV – 160km Tesla Roadster EV – 400km

BYD E6 EV – 300km Fisker Karma PHEV – 80km Reva EV – 160km

NB: There are tremendous barriers to entry for new car companies

EV/PHEV Production Ramp

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Industry Plans for Global Production of EVs and PHEVs

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Forecast Pricing Distribution for Global Production EVs/HEVs(model launches during 2009-2012)

EV/PHEV Market Prices

Median price $42,000

EVs’ Lower Cost of Motoring

NB: Innovative business models can amortize EVs’ higher upfront cost.

Annual Motoring Cost Comparison – Small Sedan – 15,000km per Year

ICE HEV PHEV EVFuel cost - $1.00/L 1110 660 330 0Fuel cost - $1.50/L 1665 990 495 0 Elec cost - 5c/kWh 0 0 69 139Elec cost - 20c/kWh 0 0 278 555 Battery degradation1 0 0 377 583 Maintenance2 726 631 539 365 Totals – low $1836 $1291 $1316 $1087Totals – high $2391 $1621 $1689 $15031 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) – assumes 80% residual capacity at end of life.

2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004)

No oil required for EVs

NB: No oil required for EVs = energy independence

from Garnaut Review (2008)

NB: Cleaner electricity means cleaner EVs.

Greenhouse Emissions

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ICE - 7.4L/100km HEV - 4.4L/100km PHEV - 50% UF EV - 185Wh/km

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Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Petrol vs Electric Vehicles in Australia

MRET 20%

Electricity

Petrol

Small Sedan Platform

Evolution of

petroleum supply

Oil shaleTar sands

Gas-to-liquidsCoal-to-liquids

Evolution of

electricity supply

IGCCCO2 seq.

Wind/solarWave/tidal

Lifecycle Analysis for EVs/PHEVs

Toyota study of Prius HEV – a net winner after 20,000km.

MIT study of alt. vehicle technologies – EVs a net winner compared to ICE.

EV Recharging Infrastructure

NB: Standardized EV infrastructure is essential.

Coulomb Technologies / Charge Point

Better Place

Elektromotive

Toyota Industries

EV Battery Exchange

Better Place

Enabling Technology: Smart Grids(cars as appliances)

Courtesy of EPRI

EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Expansion

• The existing US electricity grid can support a light-duty vehicle fleet that is composed of 73% EVs (160 million).

NB: No new capacity required to support mass-market EVs, but utility-optimized charging is preferred.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (2007) “Impacts Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids”

EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Factors

• EVs can increase capacity factors with low marginal cost of electricity supplied.

Letendre et al (2006) “Electric & Hybrid Cars – New Load, or New Resource?”

EVs and Smart Grid: Ancillary Services

• Ancillary services are a multi-billion-dollar market, and are also the most promising application of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology.

NB: “Back-feeding” of power is not essential to provide V2G services.

EVs and Utilities

• Utilities that ‘get it’ are incredibly supportive of EVs

• Southern California Edison (SCE)

Southern California Edison (SCE) Electric Vehicle Technical Center

SCE has operated a fleet of 320 Toyota RAV4 EVs since 1998

EVs and Utilities

• Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E)– Special EV tariffs– Early adopter of pre-

production EVs– Considering aftermarket

for used EV batteries

EVs and Utilities

• Xcel Energy– Field trials with 6 Ford Escape PHEVs with smart charging– Comprehensive service territory modelling with NREL

EVs and Utilities

• Electricite de France (EDF)– Prius PHEV field trials in Paris, London and soon, Spain

NB: Many utilities are still unfamiliar with EVs.

EVs and Smart Grid: V2G Aggregators

• Emerging business opportunities for EV “aggregators” who can pool EV resources, sell V2G services to utilities, and provide new commercial models for EV ownership to consumers.

Coulomb TechnologiesProject Better Place

EVs and Smart Grid: Enabling Renewables

Grid mix without EVs Grid mix with EVs

Doubling of installed wind capacity

Short & Denholm (2006) “A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets”

Enabling Renewables: Solar EV Charging

Enabling Technology: Maturing Renewables

Hunwick Consultants (2002)

Enabling Factor: Green Stimulus Packages

$11B for Smart Grids,$6B for Renewables,$2B for Plug-in Vehicles!

$2B for Renewables,$1B for Green Cars,$100M for Smart Grids!

It might happen first in our backyard!

North Port Quay: a carbon-free community development based on renewables, smart grids and electric vehicles.

Barriers to EVs in sustainable communities in Australia

• Lack of plug-in vehicles & components• Lack of plug-in infrastructure• Lack of plug-in vehicle standards and regulations• Misperceptions about EVs• Market distortions due to undersupply• Lack of green vehicle incentives• Regulatory constraints in the utility industry• Lack of truly smart grids• Lack of foresight in urban planning processes

Opportunities for EVs in sustainable communities in Australia

• Vehicles and charging infrastructure– components and systems– hardware and software– new and retrofit

• New automotive business models• Aggregators of V2G ancillary services• Demonstrations and pilot deployments• New communities (green and brown-

field)

Blade Electron (VIC)

How is CUSP pursuing its vision?The CUSP team:Peter Newman, Andrew Simpson, Walter James, Andrew Went and Peter Wolfs

Research projects:• Potential for EVs, smart grids and renewables (Walter James with Western Power)• Distribution impacts of EVs in smart grids (Andrew Went)• Transmission dynamics for EVs in smart grids (Prof Peter Wolfs with Western

Power)• Economics of EVs (Andrew Simpson)• Environmental benefits of EVs (team in conjunction with EV infrastructure

provider)

Stakeholder engagement and pilot deployments

• West Australian EV Reference Group (with UWA, Murdoch and CO2 Smart)

• Linking to AutoCRC and local EV conversion businesses for domestic EV supply• Advisors to green urban developments e.g. North Port Quay and Lochiel Park

CUSP Discussion Paper: Renewable Transport – How Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles using Vehicle to Grid Technology can make Carbon Free Urban Developmenthttp://sustainability.curtin.edu.au/local/docs/cusp_discussion_paper.pdf

From this… …to this…

…or we’ll be stuck with this.

Any Questions?