decision support services at wfo fort worth, tx bill bunting, mic decision support symposium

Decision Support Services at WFO Fort Worth, TX

Bill Bunting, MIC

Decision Support Symposium

Amarillo, TXNovember 4th, 2009

GoalsGoals

• Increase the situation awareness (SA) of local decision makers by providing a frequently-updated stream of expertise, delivered through multiple channels

• Increase the internal SA of WFO staff through early notification of an incident and as much ground truth as possible.

• Increase the situation awareness (SA) of local decision makers by providing a frequently-updated stream of expertise, delivered through multiple channels

• Increase the internal SA of WFO staff through early notification of an incident and as much ground truth as possible.

Definition of Situation AwarenessDefinition of Situation Awareness Customer Services for enhancing SACustomer Services for enhancing SA Internal Methods of enhancing SA Internal Methods of enhancing SA

during high-impact weather events during high-impact weather events and other incidentsand other incidents

Definition of Situation AwarenessDefinition of Situation Awareness Customer Services for enhancing SACustomer Services for enhancing SA Internal Methods of enhancing SA Internal Methods of enhancing SA

during high-impact weather events during high-impact weather events and other incidentsand other incidents

Presentation Topics

What is Situation Awareness?What is Situation Awareness?

• The awareness of a piece of information in the environment (level 1)

• A comprehension of it’s meaning (level 2)

• A projection of it’s future status (level 3)

- Endsley, 1988

• The awareness of a piece of information in the environment (level 1)

• A comprehension of it’s meaning (level 2)

• A projection of it’s future status (level 3)

- Endsley, 1988

Another DefinitionAnother Definition

WFO Ft Worth ServicesWFO Ft Worth Services

• Provide local decision makers with the latest and most detailed weather information possible through:– frequent updates (grids, graphicasts, text,

NWSChat, paging system, heads-up emails)– live and recorded web briefings– the telephone is still an important tool!

• Provide local decision makers with the latest and most detailed weather information possible through:– frequent updates (grids, graphicasts, text,

NWSChat, paging system, heads-up emails)– live and recorded web briefings– the telephone is still an important tool!

Graphical Severe Weather Warnings

Project began in 2003 in collaboration with NCTCOG

Goal: Insight into population characteristics in storm’s path

Useful for Call-To-Action statement selection

Warning polygon decoded and used to query Census database

Output available via NWS Fort Worth and NCTCOG Internet sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDBULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TXNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX627 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003627 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED AISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...* TORNADO WARNING FOR... PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXASPALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WESTERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXASWESTERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CST* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 627 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A * AT 627 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 18 MILES WEST OF MINERAL WELLS OR 3 MILES TORNADO 18 MILES WEST OF MINERAL WELLS OR 3 MILES EAST OF POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.EAST OF POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR... MINERAL WELLS AROUND 650 PM CSTMINERAL WELLS AROUND 650 PM CST WEATHERFORD AROUND 715 PM CSTWEATHERFORD AROUND 715 PM CST

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES, HAIL TO THE SIZE OF IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES, HAIL TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE LIKELY.SOFTBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE LIKELY.

DO NOT LEAVE SHELTER TO USE YOUR CAR TO OUTRUN A DO NOT LEAVE SHELTER TO USE YOUR CAR TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY TOSSED AND CRUSHED BY TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY TOSSED AND CRUSHED BY TORNADO WINDS.TORNADO WINDS.

LAT...LON 3298 9845 3280 9847 3270 9772 3297 9770LAT...LON 3298 9845 3280 9847 3270 9772 3297 9770

• Live Radar Data• Severe Storm

Expertise• Storm Spotter

Network

• Centralized GIS Data

• Demographics• Application

Development• EM Coordination

GIS/Demographic DataGeo-Spatial-Enabled Warning

Warning FilesRadar Data Files

National Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceNCTCOGNCTCOG

Graphical Severe Weather Warning Process

The Result

Warning polygon threat area displayed with radar image

Demographic analysis of population at risk

Breakdown by city or town beneath graphic

Radar image updated with each new scan

Feedback from Emergency Managers

“It's like having you and your team of  experts standing right with us.  Your credibility is never questioned when we can show the hazards approaching using a BlackBerry or other PDA.”

“We used the graphical warning when making the decision to sound the sirens during the February 10 storm. We also captured screen shots of the graphical warning page to include in our "event" file for the day.”

“When questioned by elected officials as to why the sirens were sounded when the damages were in the city immediately adjacent to us, the picture and data really told the story.”

“The best thing about it for me is putting as much simplified info on the page with the map as possible and I think you have that down pretty well.”

Tornado Damage Simulations

May 3rd, 1999 Oklahoma Outbreak track shapefiles used as reference Several simulations done to compare impactsResults published in Rae and Stefkovich, 2000Useful in exercises

One Scenario: Downtown Fort Worth

Residents: 51,300Employees: 64,600Structures: 23,000Structure Value: $4.2 Bill.Damages: $2.6 Bil.Hourly Traffic: 169,000Normal Volume: 1,700

Adding demographic information to warning decision processAdding demographic information to warning decision process

Census Block DataCensus Block Data

Mobile Home ParksMobile Home Parks

Single and Multi-Family ResidentialSingle and Multi-Family Residential

weather.gov/fortworth

North Texas Hazard PlannerNorth Texas Hazard Planner

Hazard PlannerHazard Planner

• County-based quick overview of threats

• Click on threat color displays North TX map

• GFE-based assembly

• SPC probabilities for hail, tornado, and wind adjusted as needed based on local expectations

• Updated at least twice daily

• County-based quick overview of threats

• Click on threat color displays North TX map

• GFE-based assembly

• SPC probabilities for hail, tornado, and wind adjusted as needed based on local expectations

• Updated at least twice daily

Emergency Response Meteorologist Program

Emergency Response Meteorologist Program

• Program developed after 9/11• Initial Training in November, 2002• Training Topics included:

– ICS Overview– CAMEO/ALOHA Training– Plume Dispersion Characteristics– Emergency Responder Information Needs– How to Conduct Responder Briefings

• Program developed after 9/11• Initial Training in November, 2002• Training Topics included:

– ICS Overview– CAMEO/ALOHA Training– Plume Dispersion Characteristics– Emergency Responder Information Needs– How to Conduct Responder Briefings

ERMET SupportERMET Support

• Shuttle Columbia Disaster - 2003• Fort Worth chemical plant explosion/fire – 2005• Controlled demolition of multi-story building in downtown

Ft Worth – 2006• Dallas acetylene plant multiple explosions and fire – 2007• Many wildfires, especially 2005-2006• Texas Motor Speedway Races• 2010 NBA All-Star Game• 2011 Super Bowl

• Shuttle Columbia Disaster - 2003• Fort Worth chemical plant explosion/fire – 2005• Controlled demolition of multi-story building in downtown

Ft Worth – 2006• Dallas acetylene plant multiple explosions and fire – 2007• Many wildfires, especially 2005-2006• Texas Motor Speedway Races• 2010 NBA All-Star Game• 2011 Super Bowl

Shuttle Columbia Support 2/1/2003Shuttle Columbia Support 2/1/2003

• Phone briefings for forecasts affecting debris recovery

• Meteorologist deployed at Palestine command post for three weeks

• Civil Emergency Message issued at DEM request due to debris danger

• Media interviews immediately after disaster

• Special upper air sounding

• Phone briefings for forecasts affecting debris recovery

• Meteorologist deployed at Palestine command post for three weeks

• Civil Emergency Message issued at DEM request due to debris danger

• Media interviews immediately after disaster

• Special upper air sounding

Geotargeted Alerting System (GTAS)Geotargeted Alerting System (GTAS)

• Project began Summer, 2009

• Partnership between NOAA/NWS, DHS/FEMA, and City of Dallas EM

• Uses Internet for interactive collaboration and public warning decisions

• Project began Summer, 2009

• Partnership between NOAA/NWS, DHS/FEMA, and City of Dallas EM

• Uses Internet for interactive collaboration and public warning decisions

Internal ToolsInternal Tools• SA Display

• Incident Notification Systems

• Public Safety Audio

• SA Display

• Incident Notification Systems

• Public Safety Audio

Situation Awareness DisplaySituation Awareness Display

• Monitors 4 local TV stations

• AWIPS Display• Office LAN• Internet sources

(traffic cams, external web pages)

• Monitored 24/7

• Monitors 4 local TV stations

• AWIPS Display• Office LAN• Internet sources

(traffic cams, external web pages)

• Monitored 24/7

Incident NotificationIncident Notification

• www.incidentpage.net– Subscription Service

costs $8/month

• City Notification Services (Ft Worth, Dallas, others?)

• Live public safety audio (scanners or Internet)

• www.incidentpage.net– Subscription Service

costs $8/month

• City Notification Services (Ft Worth, Dallas, others?)

• Live public safety audio (scanners or Internet)

• Recent messages received by FWD:– Dallas| Hazmat| 453.875|

5743 Marquita|HM 3 enrt to assist EN 17 O/S with unknown chemicals leaking from trash truck| 16:38

– Irving| 3 Alarm Fire| IFD FGD 2| 412 W 6th|U/D: Bn 1 has fire showing thru roof req a 3rd alarm.| 13:40

• Recent messages received by FWD:– Dallas| Hazmat| 453.875|

5743 Marquita|HM 3 enrt to assist EN 17 O/S with unknown chemicals leaking from trash truck| 16:38

– Irving| 3 Alarm Fire| IFD FGD 2| 412 W 6th|U/D: Bn 1 has fire showing thru roof req a 3rd alarm.| 13:40

Public Safety AudioPublic Safety Audio

• www.radioreference.com

• Good for following developing events (hazmat, fires, etc.)

• Helps assess impacts from heavy rain/wintry precipitation

• Internet allows for remote monitoring

• www.radioreference.com

• Good for following developing events (hazmat, fires, etc.)

• Helps assess impacts from heavy rain/wintry precipitation

• Internet allows for remote monitoring

SummarySummary

• NWS Fort Worth forecasters use a number of tools to increase weather SA for emergency managers, first responders, elected officials and others

• Several methods are also used to keep us informed of events across North Texas for which weather information is critical to response

• We need to continue to better understand responder information needs and decision thresholds

• NWS Fort Worth forecasters use a number of tools to increase weather SA for emergency managers, first responders, elected officials and others

• Several methods are also used to keep us informed of events across North Texas for which weather information is critical to response

• We need to continue to better understand responder information needs and decision thresholds

Bill BuntingBill BuntingMeteorologist-In-ChargeMeteorologist-In-ChargeNational Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceFort Worth, TXFort Worth, TX

(817) 831-1157(817) 831-1157

William.Bunting@noaa.govWilliam.Bunting@noaa.gov

Thank You!Thank You!