designing multi-vector networks – a whole systems approach€¦ · future strategy director 1 ....

Designing multi-vector networks – a

whole systems approach Chris Clarke

Future Strategy Director

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Wales & West Utilities

We are the Gas DSO & Designer for Wales & south west England

We have 37 power stations connected with 1.76 GW total capacity

We have 1.7 TWh green gas capacity connected to our network

We flexibly deploy 58 GWh of storage each day (UK 210 TWh seasonally)

On a cold winter day over 80% of heat & power is transported in the gas network.

Our evidence and research journey

Bridgend-Willingness&AbilitytoPay

CornwallEnergyIsland

SmartHybridControl

Development

PathfinderSimulator

SwanseaCityRegion

FreedomProject

GreenCityVision

RegionalFES

OpInet

GreenGas/WindHybrids

Development of UK energy networks

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Key------Gas------Electricity

EnergyNetworks–120years

‘Cornwall Energy Island’ concept

•  Cornwall is rich in natural energy resources, including wind; solar and deep geothermal

•  Partnership created to consider low carbon future •  Participants at workshops felt that these could provide the

majority of energy needs, balancing supply and demand with storage

•  Our modelled scenarios

–  Overlaid demand and generation to calculate storage requirements

•  Results –  500 GWh of storage required –  Excessive costs

Network of today

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E.G EV charging - High renewables – 2030

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On a future high renewables day, EVs charged from wind/solar

Electric Vehicles

E.g. Medium Renewables

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EVs - Low renewables – 2030

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On a low renewables day, demand exceeds renewable supply, so gas peakers supply.

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2050 Energy Pathfinder

To help us address these challenges, we created a simulation model called the 2050 Energy Pathfinder. It’s our unique tool that models future energy supply and demand. It works out opportunities, risks and trade-offs when designing the energy system of the future at local, regional and national levels. And that’s not all: it works out what future energy solutions could mean for energy bills.

Smart Hybrid Heating Systems – Project Freedom

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• Smart enables switching decision 17,520 times a year driven by: •  Market prices (gas and electricity) & carbon intensity •  Electricity network capacity constraints – No DNO Reinforcement

• Can utilise renewable electricity for heat when available; Use Green Gas when not – 100% carbon reduction

Retrofitsmallheatpumptoexis1ngcentralhea1ngsystem•  LowCost•  LowDisrup1on

EV’s and Public transport included

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EV charging – un-constrained; constrained or Smart (V2G)

PathfinderLogic-1June1500

• 150Inputs• Startsbybalancingpower,hybridheaInguseselectricifavailable.

• IfexcessgeneraIon,flexpowerturnedoff/constrained

• LeavesNuclear,WindandSolartobalanceagainstdemand

• EG–10.2GW

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Calculateelectricitydemand:

Domesticl ightandpowerdemand 9,192

Commercialandindustriall ightandpowerdemand 16,694

Unconstrainedvehicleelectricitydemand 5,370

Constrainedvehicleelectricitydemand 514 ElectricityDemand(1)Domesticdirectelectricheatingdemand 552 MWhelecDomesticelectricallypoweredheatpumpdemand 1,314 33,953Domestichybridelectricity/gasheatpumpdemand 310

Domestichybridelectricity/oil heatpumpdemand 0

Domestichybridelectricity/LPGheatpumpdemand 7

Calculateelectricitysupply:

Electricitygenerated-CHP 457

Hydroelectricelectricitysupplied 2,201

Tidal-Lagoonelectricitysupplied 3,229

Tidal-Streamelectricitysupplied 0 ElectricitySupply(1)Tidal-Waveelectricitysupplied 0 MWhelecSolarelectricitysupplied 21,320 44,232Windelectricitysupplied 7,238

Nuclearelectricitysupplied 6,356

Geothermalelectricitysupplied 3,430 Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(1)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec

Ifdemand>supply,switchhybridheatpumps: -10,279 Ifsupply>demand,chargesmartEVs:

Totalhybridheatpumpmovedoffelectricity

Chargeaddedtosmartelectricvehicles

MWhelec MWhelec0 0

Recalculateelectricitydemand: Recalculateelectricitydemand:

ElectricityDemand(5) Vehiclebatterycapacityutilised ElectricityDemand(2)MWhelec MWhstorage MWhelec33,953 106,767 33,953

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand: Comapreelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(1) ElecDemand(2)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec MWhelec-10,279 -10,279

Ifsupply>demand,chargecommercialbatteriesandgeneratehydrogenequally(ifpossible):Ifdemand>supply,dischargecommercialbatteries:

Dischargefromcommercialbatteriestogrid-includinglosses

CommercialbatterycapacityutilisedChargeaddedto

commercialbatteriesElectricityusedtogeneratehydrogen

MWhelec MWhstorage MWhelec MWhelec0 16,555 5,140 5,140

Recalculateelectricitysupply:Recalculateelectricitydemand:

ElectricitySupply(2) ElectricityDemand(3)MWhelec MWhelec44,232 44,232

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand: Comapreelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(2) ElecDemand(3)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec MWhelec-10,279 0

Ifdemand>supply,dischargesmartEVbatteries: Ifsupply>demand,exporttointerconnectors:

Dischargefromsmartelectricvehiclestogrid-includinglosses

Exporttointerconnectors

MWhelec MWhelec0 0

Recalculateelectricitysupply: Recalculateelectricitydemand:

ElectricitySupply(3) ElectricityDemand(4)MWhelec MWhelec44,232 44,232

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand: Comapreelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(3) ElecDemand(4)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec MWhelec-10,279 0

Ifdemand>supply,bringoncontrollablegenerationinmeritorder: Ifsupply>demand,calculateunusableelectricitysupply:

0 Coalelectricitysupplied UnusableElectricitySupply0 Coal+CCSelectricitysupplied MWhelec0 Oilelectricitysupplied 00 Biomasselectricitysupplied0 OCGTelectricitysupplied0 CCGTelectricitysupplied0 CCGT+CCSelectricitysupplied0 Interconnectorselectricitysupplied

Recalculateelectricitysupply:

ElectricitySupply(4)MWhelec44,232

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(4)MWhelec-10,279

Ifdemand>supply,calculateelectricityshortfall:

ElectricityshortfallMWhelec

0

Calculategasdemand:

0 OCGTgasdemand0 CCGTgasdemand0 CCGT+CCSgasdemand

Totalgasdemand-beforelosses

0 Hybridelectricity/gasheatpumpfueldemand MWhgas

6,4332,432 Domesticgasdemand-boilers2,033 Commercialgasdemand-boilers1,904 Commercialgasdemand-CHP0 Busgasdemand0 HGVgasdemand

Addhydrogenfromstoragetogassupply(tomaximumlimit):

Hydrogenaddedtogasfromstorage HydrogenstoragecapacityutilisedMWhhydrogen MWhstorage

643 20,381,383

Usegreengassupply,thengreengasfromstorage(storegreengaswhensupplyexceedsdemand):

Totalgreengassupplied GreengasstoragecapacityutilisedMWhgas MWhstorage

617 0

Makeupbalanceofgassupplyrequiredtomeetdemandwithfossilgas:

FossilgassuppliedMWhgas5,173

PathfinderLogic• Inputsinclude

–  HydrogenGeneraIonCapacity–  HydrogenStorage

• Logicdefinesmeritorderforxspower:

–  ChargeEVs–  Chargeba]erystorageandhydrogeninequalmeasure

–  Onceoneisfull,fillsnext–  Hydrogeninstorage

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Calculateelectricitydemand:

Domesticl ightandpowerdemand 9,192

Commercialandindustriall ightandpowerdemand 16,694

Unconstrainedvehicleelectricitydemand 5,370

Constrainedvehicleelectricitydemand 514 ElectricityDemand(1)Domesticdirectelectricheatingdemand 552 MWhelecDomesticelectricallypoweredheatpumpdemand 1,314 33,953Domestichybridelectricity/gasheatpumpdemand 310

Domestichybridelectricity/oil heatpumpdemand 0

Domestichybridelectricity/LPGheatpumpdemand 7

Calculateelectricitysupply:

Electricitygenerated-CHP 457

Hydroelectricelectricitysupplied 2,201

Tidal-Lagoonelectricitysupplied 3,229

Tidal-Streamelectricitysupplied 0 ElectricitySupply(1)Tidal-Waveelectricitysupplied 0 MWhelecSolarelectricitysupplied 21,320 44,232Windelectricitysupplied 7,238

Nuclearelectricitysupplied 6,356

Geothermalelectricitysupplied 3,430 Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(1)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec

Ifdemand>supply,switchhybridheatpumps: -10,279 Ifsupply>demand,chargesmartEVs:

Totalhybridheatpumpmovedoffelectricity

Chargeaddedtosmartelectricvehicles

MWhelec MWhelec0 0

Recalculateelectricitydemand: Recalculateelectricitydemand:

ElectricityDemand(5) Vehiclebatterycapacityutilised ElectricityDemand(2)MWhelec MWhstorage MWhelec33,953 106,767 33,953

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand: Comapreelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(1) ElecDemand(2)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec MWhelec-10,279 -10,279

Ifsupply>demand,chargecommercialbatteriesandgeneratehydrogenequally(ifpossible):Ifdemand>supply,dischargecommercialbatteries:

Dischargefromcommercialbatteriestogrid-includinglosses

CommercialbatterycapacityutilisedChargeaddedto

commercialbatteriesElectricityusedtogeneratehydrogen

MWhelec MWhstorage MWhelec MWhelec0 16,555 5,140 5,140

Recalculateelectricitysupply:Recalculateelectricitydemand:

ElectricitySupply(2) ElectricityDemand(3)MWhelec MWhelec44,232 44,232

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand: Comapreelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(2) ElecDemand(3)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec MWhelec-10,279 0

Ifdemand>supply,dischargesmartEVbatteries: Ifsupply>demand,exporttointerconnectors:

Dischargefromsmartelectricvehiclestogrid-includinglosses

Exporttointerconnectors

MWhelec MWhelec0 0

Recalculateelectricitysupply: Recalculateelectricitydemand:

ElectricitySupply(3) ElectricityDemand(4)MWhelec MWhelec44,232 44,232

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand: Comapreelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(3) ElecDemand(4)-ElecSupply(1)MWhelec MWhelec-10,279 0

Ifdemand>supply,bringoncontrollablegenerationinmeritorder: Ifsupply>demand,calculateunusableelectricitysupply:

0 Coalelectricitysupplied UnusableElectricitySupply0 Coal+CCSelectricitysupplied MWhelec0 Oilelectricitysupplied 00 Biomasselectricitysupplied0 OCGTelectricitysupplied0 CCGTelectricitysupplied0 CCGT+CCSelectricitysupplied0 Interconnectorselectricitysupplied

Recalculateelectricitysupply:

ElectricitySupply(4)MWhelec44,232

Compareelectricitysupplyanddemand:

ElecDemand(5)-ElecSupply(4)MWhelec-10,279

Ifdemand>supply,calculateelectricityshortfall:

ElectricityshortfallMWhelec

0

Calculategasdemand:

0 OCGTgasdemand0 CCGTgasdemand0 CCGT+CCSgasdemand

Totalgasdemand-beforelosses

0 Hybridelectricity/gasheatpumpfueldemand MWhgas

6,4332,432 Domesticgasdemand-boilers2,033 Commercialgasdemand-boilers1,904 Commercialgasdemand-CHP0 Busgasdemand0 HGVgasdemand

Addhydrogenfromstoragetogassupply(tomaximumlimit):

Hydrogenaddedtogasfromstorage HydrogenstoragecapacityutilisedMWhhydrogen MWhstorage

643 20,381,383

Usegreengassupply,thengreengasfromstorage(storegreengaswhensupplyexceedsdemand):

Totalgreengassupplied GreengasstoragecapacityutilisedMWhgas MWhstorage

617 0

Makeupbalanceofgassupplyrequiredtomeetdemandwithfossilgas:

FossilgassuppliedMWhgas5,173

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RESULTS

CaseStudy–SwanseaCityBayRegion

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WestWalesCaseStudyResultsBaseline-2019 Electrifica3on–

CarbonNeutralElectrifica3on–2040

RenewableGreenHybrid–Wind&

GreenGas

SmartEVs(Number) 500 110,000 110,000 110,000

Efficiency 0% 12% 12% 12%

GasBoiler 80% 0% 0% 0%

ASHP 2% 80% 80% 10%

Hybrid 0% 0% 0% 70%

Marine(MW) 0 320 320 320

Solar(MW) 100 500 1215 500

Wind(MW) 100 500 1023 500

Storage(MWh) 0 3400 6400 100

Blackouts(Hrs) 0 2919 191 0

CO2(Tonnes) 2,084,157 299,207 294,091 512,837

Bill(£) 1,550 7,227 12,996 1,754

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DESIGNINGANINTEGRATEDNETWORK

GreenCityVision

Green City Vision

Almost equidistant between Cardiff and London, Swindon is a large town in Wiltshire. I ts population of almost 200,000 relies on Wales & West Utilities and Scott ish and Southern Electricity Networks for their gas and electricity.

SWINDON

GreenCityVision

Pathfinder analyses from a whole system approach and this project will optimise the solution from the consumer perspective.

Green City Vision – Draft Results •  EV Charging – bigger impact

than expected • Gas HGV/PSV mitigate further

issues •  Smart Hybrids heating avoid

making the situation worse •  Investment in grid stability

needed •  Energy efficiency measures

rely on 83% of home owners needing to act.

• Greening the grids easier than home owner actions

Results being fed into RIIO2 Business Plan – SSEN investment needed

Regional FES – a UK local approach

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17 hydrogen cities 30%

On-gas & off-gas smart hybrids

70% Wind 49%

H2 blend 1%

Lowest cost decarbonisation for heat – UKCCC (June18)

Our carbon-free vision for 2050

Find Out More

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h]ps://www.wwuIliIes.co.uk/about-us/our-company/publicaIons/the-future-of-energy-research/

@chrisclarkewwu