developing the digital long-term deployment plan in...
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Developing the Digital Long-Term Deployment
Plan in collaboration with the industry
Presented by:
Claire Beranek
Route Asset Manager (Signalling) NW&C,
Network Rail
Putting Passengers First
Digital Railway Conference26 June 2019
2
Request from Secretary of State to develop a Plan
• Plan requested by Secretary of State
• Delivered to DfT – February 2019
• Aligned train and infrastructure fitment plan
• At the lowest whole life cost
• Developed with the wider rail industry
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CP5 CP6 CP7
Re
ma
inin
g L
ife
(Y
ears
)
Historic Forecast
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Problem : managing asset sustainability
Average remaining asset life of signalling assets on the network
Figure 2
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Approach supported by industry
1.Problem
statement
2.Conventional
signalling
baseline
3. Digital Railway
signalling
solution
4. Economic
appraisal
• Sustainability challenge with
the existing conventional
renewal approach.
• Affordability of conventional
and digital renewals
assessed.
• Benefits of digital signalling
against conventional
evaluated.
• Analysis of ‘do-minimum policy’ –
renewal of assets based on expiry
date.
• Renewal dates deferred to explore
deliverable options for conventional.
• Deliverability of conventional renewals
determined as not feasible.
• Digital signalling solution explored.
• Renewal dates deferred to identify
deliverable options.
• Iterative process involving multiple
industry stakeholders undertaken.
• Feasible option to deliver digital
signalling determined.
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Affordability and deliverability constraints
1. Budget constraint
• Planning assumption - CP6 budget indicative for future control periods
2. Unit cost to business
• ETCS Unit cost agreed with internal and external stakeholders
• ETCS unit cost to business estimated at £315k/SEU. Estimated in line with Sector Deal.
• This compares to a rate of £419k/SEU for conventional signalling
3. Work bank volumes
• Volumes for ETCS renewals identified across all Routes and integrated into a national ETCS work bank
• Deployments deliverability ceiling agreed with IP and RIA at 3,000 SEU for ETCS and 1,800 SEU for
conventional
4. Train retro-fitment volumes
• Train retro-fitment delivery schedule built on the assumption that one unit of one class per operator can
be fitted at one time
• Maximum number of trains scheduled to be retro-fitted in one year is 251 trains. Deliverability
supported by RIA, NJRP and RDG
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Iterative process to develop the digital signalling plan in collaboration with industry
Ste
pS
tak
eh
old
ers
Ou
tco
me
s
Route Asset Managers (NR)
Railway Industry Association
Infrastructure Projects (NR)
Safety, Technical and Engineering
(NR)
Rail Delivery Group (representing
TOCs and FOCs)
Route Asset Managers (NR)
System Operator (NR)
Rail Delivery Group (representing TOCs
and FOCs)
Customer Relationship Executives (NR)
Renewals & Enhancements (NR)
System Operator (NR)
Rail Delivery Group
TOCs
FOCs
DfT
Route Asset Managers (NR)
ORR
SF&S Board (DR)
Safety, Technical and
Engineering (NR)
National Joint Rolling Stock
Project
Working assumptions established
Work bank volumes for each
route confirmed
National unconstrained work
bank developed
Deliverability constraints for both
conventional and ETCS agreed
Train fitment ceiling confirmed
Endorsed principles
Deferrals agreed with the NR Routes
Train fitment schedule developed and
costed based on national work bank
Plan reviewed by industry
members
Feedback and requirements for
next steps documented
Develop plan
based on
renewals
needs
Agree
affordability and
deliverability
constraints
Refine plan
with deferrals
based on
constraints
Present plan to
industry and
define next
steps
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CP6 CP7 CP8 CP9 CP10 CP11 CP12
Vo
lum
e (
SE
U)
ETCS Compatible Life Extension Conventional External Work Volume Limit
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A digital signalling renewal plan meets infrastructure deliverability constraint ……
Digital signalling constrained volume profile
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20202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048204920502051205220532054
CP6 CP7 CP8 CP9 CP10 CP11 CP12
Digital Infrastructure Train Fitment CP6 Budget
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… but not budget
Constrained digital signalling cost profile (incl. train fitment)
£ (millions)
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Likely first sites for ETCS roll out – 3 to be selected
Descriptive nameResponsible
Route
Financial
Year
*Dover Priory South East 2027
Ely to Peterborough Anglia 2027
*Peterborough (Pborocen 02) LNE 2026
Manchester East LNW N 2027
*Hull Paragon LNE 2027
*Sheffield RI LNE 2027
St Albans East Midlands 2026
Robin Hood East Midlands 2027
*Aston SSI - A (ASTONA) LNW S 2027
Warrington Area LNW N 2027
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Engagement with internal and external parties
Aug Sep Oct Nov
Initial
RAMs
meeting
DR Programme
Board
First Round of Route
engagement
RAMs
Second Round of
engagements
RAMs, RDG
ORR
engagementSuppliers
Engagement
LaunchRIA
LNW System
Review Panel
RAMs,
Professional Head,
CCS Chief
National Update
SAMG
RDG DR
Steering
Group
FSG
Engagement
DfT
Engagement
Industry wide
representation
Freight
IET and Kendal
Engineering SocietyLNW
RIRG
South East
RIRG
Engagement
w/ Suppliers
RIAAlignment w/
Sector Deal
National
DRAM
Meeting
Route
Investment
Review Group
Third Round of
engagements
TOCs / FOCs
Dec Jan
DR Programme
Board
Industry wide
representation
Strategic Freight
Network Steering
Group
Wessex DR
Board
LNW DR
Steering Board
Transport
Scotland
FSG
Engagement
Freight
LNE/EM
RSPG LNE/EM
RISB
Infrastructure
Workshop
RDG, IP
Signaling
RIA, RDG,
ROSCO
Train Fitment
WorkshopPeople
Workshop
RDG
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Key findings
• Evolution from current lineside signalling to next generation technology is required to sustain the network.
• Digital could be delivered at a sustainable volume. However, although more affordable than conventional signalling, costs still exceed CP6 budget levels for the first three control periods.
• Digital signalling will deliver higher performance and better safety.
• There is potential to reduce digital signalling costs towards CP6 budget levels through innovation.
• Digital signalling provides a better long-term cost solution.
• A digital signalling LTDP will promote the Rail Sector Deal and Innovation Strategies.
• Train fitment and infrastructure renewal plans have been aligned successfully.
• An integrated digital renewal plan acts as a baseline, further consideration will be necessary to understand enhancement opportunities.
• A robust change control mechanism will be essential to manage and coordinate the interests of train and infrastructure stakeholders.
12
Considerations
• Retrofit of trains programme as identified in the plan.
• New trains / rolling stock come fitted with ETCS at the point of manufacture as a matter of policy.
• Long-term funding commitment to the freight fitment programme.
• Development of base plan into routes plans, and change control process to co-ordinate centrally as a service to the routes.
• Integration of the LTDP with enhancement planning to seek better value solutions and passenger outcomes.
• Technology roadmap to co-ordinate and channel R&D funding to improve ETCS technology and process efficiency.
• Preparation of industry and the supply chain for transition to digital signalling.
Thank you
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