dr. eve gruntfest mark workman public lecture
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Reducing Losses from Natural Disasters: New Models that Integrate Perspectives from Science and Society
Reducing Losses from Natural Disasters: New Models that Integrate Perspectives from Science and Society
Dr. Eve GruntfestMark Workman Public Lecture November 4, 2009 University of North Florida Jacksonville, FL
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Background - applied geographerSocial scientist in world of engineers and physical scientistsGeography professor at University of Colorado Colorado Springs for 27 years
Research on flash floods and warning systems
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado 140 died July 31, 1976The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado 140 died July 31, 1976•Who lived?
•Who died?
•Studied the behaviors that night
•Career – “socio/hydro/ meteoro - logist”
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Outline Outline
International Flash Flood Laboratory
1. Examples of hydro-socio-meteor-ology at work Weather & Society * Integrated Studies (WAS * IS) Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM)
2. Ten big hazard mitigation questions
Clark County Regional Flood Control District http://www.ccrfcd.org
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
water
Why WAS * IS? As an “add on social scientist” always a few people would say after a talk ---
Why WAS * IS? As an “add on social scientist” always a few people would say after a talk ---
– I don’t know how, and…– I don’t know anyone else who does this kind of work”
“I want to do work that integrates meteorology and societal impacts BUT…
WAS*IS visionTo change the weather enterprise by comprehensively and sustainably integrating social science into meteorological and hydrological research and practice
WAS*IS mission – building hydro-socio-metero logy capacityWAS*IS mission – building hydro-socio-metero logy capacity1. Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners,
researchers and stakeholders — from the grassroots up — dedicated to the integration of meteorology and hydrology and social science
2. Provide opportunities to learn and examine ideas, methods, and examples related to integrated weather-society work
• Tools – qualitative methods, surveys, interviews• Concepts – speaking the same language, problem definition• Topics – intros to social sciences, vulnerability and resilience,
roles of technology, communication and use of weather information
The WAS*IS movement The WAS*IS movement • Began as 1 workshop … now 7 • Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006)• Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) • Summer WAS*IS (July 2006)• Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2008)• Summer WAS*IS (August 2009)• Integrated Warning Team Meetings inspired by WAS * IS
• Springfield, MO December 2008• Kansas City, MO January 2009• Omaha, NE September 2009
As of November, 2009 - 198 WAS*ISers and hundreds of “friends of WAS * IS”
Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)
Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)
The National Weather Center – Norman, OK Funded by University of Oklahoma and NOAA www.sswim.org
Collaborate with UNF Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
SSWIM’s three goals SSWIM’s three goals
1. To weave social science into the activities of the National Weather Center and elsewhere – not an “add –on”
2. To earn a reputation as a center of social
science research and practice in weather and climate work
3. To revolutionize the research to operations equation – so it’s no longer top-down and all partners play equal roles – decision-makers, forecasters, product designers and researchersWeaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity buildingSSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity building
• … by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, and participatory methods
• … through partnerships with public, private, and academic sectors, including students, practitioners, and policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Big questions related to loss reduction Big questions related to loss reduction
We need more than better warnings to save lives
We need to understand physical and social vulnerability
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Not all hazards are equalNot all hazards are equal
1. What are acceptablelevels of risk? (wind speeds, storm surge?) Does Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scalehelp?2. How do we addressnuisance events vscatastrophic events?
AP Photo/ News & Record, H. Scott Hoffmann Greensboro, NC 6/03/2009
Height of the 1997 Fort Collins, CO flash flood
September 2009 Atlanta floods – Creeks were cresting FEET above historical record levels
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
3. If 28 people die in Florida or 1000 people in India – were the warnings successful? Research shows people continue doing what they think they need to do
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
How do we change “public education” paradigm – “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviorsHow do we change “public education” paradigm – “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviors
Research shows that drivers know there are warnings and where the hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work
Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than potentially dying while driving across flooded road
Better information is NOT going to change behavior - only if boss closes work
Publics use weather warnings as part of complex decision-making with many other considerations – THEIR BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses
• Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
What we know about warnings – Public response components
What we know about warnings – Public response components
• Hear/receive• Understand• Believe• Personalize• Decide to act• Respond
The warning process is complex
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Source of Photo: http://press.weather.com/content/ss220-erin-midwest_flood-mike_rescue.jpg
We need to focus on the folks who do listen to warnings and take appropriate action – not just
those who die or who do not respond
We need to focus on the folks who do listen to warnings and take appropriate action – not just
those who die or who do not respond
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Recent research findings
Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized -- there is no ONE PUBLIC
•Different languages, capabilities, economic status
Weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific usercommunities
Recognition that studies ofbehavior may tell us more than research on perceptions
International Flash Flood LaboratoryWeaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
4. Are “cry wolf” & over-warning major problems? 4. Are “cry wolf” & over-warning major problems?
No measurement of “close calls” & “near misses”
Events occur but not exactly in the warning areas or with exactly the predicted intensity
How about new categories? New metrics?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
International Flash Flood Laboratory
Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls
N= 1047
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash floodingOfficials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding
N = 1031
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Verification/false alarms
Alligators don’t answerthe phone to report in about windspeed
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Forecast verification is difficult in rural areas….
5. How can we assure robust communication on many levels? Where were maps & GIS, even telephones right after Hurricane Katrina?
6. Is there a BEST lead-time? Forecasts are often very good but people die – housing or transportation more important than forecast accuracy
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
7. Which graphical images are most effective? How local? How real-time?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Gina Eosco SSWIM graduate studentGina Eosco SSWIM graduate student
• Pursuing Ph.D. in Communication at University of Oklahoma
• Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society
• Master’s work at Cornell University – Interviewing forecasters, government officials & others
about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
8. How do people interpret probabilities &/or uncertainties?
Different messages for different folks? Officials, Publics: tourists, elderly
Tuesday 8pm
H
W E
N
STuesday 8pm
Wednesday 8am
Thursday 8am
LISTENTO
YOUREMERGENCYMANAGERS
No cone option?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
West Nile Virus study epidemiology - public awareness example West Nile Virus study epidemiology - public awareness example
NOBODY identifies themselves as “elderly”
• Folks >50 years old most vulnerable to severe manifestations
• Campaign for elderly
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Report from Hurricane IKE – Galveston, TX September 2008 ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH.
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
9. What should be policy regarding National Weather Service Calls to Action? LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!
International Flash Flood Laboratory
MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE... ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
Were "Calls to Action" too strong? Were "Calls to Action" too strong?
How can we motivate peopleto evacuate who need toevacuate?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Oceanfront restaurant September 2008– Galveston
10. Can we reduce vulnerability with monstrous development pressures? Will the rebuilding cycle be stopped?
2009Miami 1926
10. How can we reduce losses when vulnerability keeps increasing?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Jacksonville thenand now Jacksonville thenand now
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
National Weather Servicehydrologists
Private forecastersEnvironmental groups
Local Communities
Hydro-socio-meteoro-logy occurs when stovepipes are not the model
UniversitiesInternational AgenciesGeographers
Research Centers
Urban Drainage DistrictsAnthropologists
Broadcast meteorologistsUtilities
National Weather Servicemeteorologists
International Flash Flood LaboratoryWeaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Before now, who were the most influential players in disaster mitigation?
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists are NOT the same people with new models or gadgets!Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists are NOT the same people with new models or gadgets!
New partners are changing the uni-dimensional culture with interdisciplinaryapproaches
New partners are changing the uni-dimensional culture with interdisciplinaryapproaches
THANKS TO the College of Arts and Sciences Mark Workman Fellowship Grant for hosting my visit - Gift from Stephanie & Gerald Mitchell
Dr. Radha Pyati, Director of the UNF Environmental Center, for her vision and hard work to bring us all together todayApril Moore for efficiently handling the numerous details
All of YOU for coming
THANKS TO the College of Arts and Sciences Mark Workman Fellowship Grant for hosting my visit - Gift from Stephanie & Gerald Mitchell
Dr. Radha Pyati, Director of the UNF Environmental Center, for her vision and hard work to bring us all together todayApril Moore for efficiently handling the numerous details
All of YOU for coming
International Flash Flood Laboratory
All of YOU for coming
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
Photo by Stephen Morton/Getty Images Jacksonville August 22, 2008
Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice
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