dr. sebastian gorka strategy and current wars – who is the enemy?

National Security StrategyCongressional Lecture Series

21st Oct 2011

Dr. Sebastian Gorka

Strategy and Current Wars – Who is the Enemy?

Disclaimer

The views herein expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of Defense or any other US Government Department or Agency

MESSAGE

America has lost its capacity to think strategically We no longer prioritize based upon national interests If you want to understand the enemy, read what he

writes and listen to what he says Al Qaeda / AQAM is a product of decades and even

centuries of ideological evolution Do not obsess on violence – AQ is scary but those

who use the indirect, non-kinetic approach (e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood) may be even more dangerous

Both the violent terrorists and non-violent jihadists have the same aim: destroying our country and its

values

SIMPLE, Correct?

Has our Strategy Changed?

GWOT V

Long War /CIST

V

CVE / OCOV

Global Counterinsurgency?

Strategy 101

Sun Tzu (6-5th Century BC)

Know the Enemy AND yourself

Carl von Clausewitz (1780 -1837)

The first responsibility of the commander

is to know what kind of war he is fighting

Who are We? What is Our

Strategy?USG COUNTERTERRORISM MODEL

KILL/CAPTURE

DISRUPT

CONDITIONS EXPLOITED BY TERRORISTS

Training, Recruiting, Logistics, Travel, Finances, Leadership, Ideology,

Communication, Implement CT Legislation

Social Injustice, Lack of Political IntegrationEconomic Inequality, Religious Persecution,

Ideological Extremism

Kinetic, intelligence

Terrorists think globally, organize regionally, act locally

15%

20%

65%

Hard Power

Soft Power

Who is the Enemy? AQ’s Evolution

pre AQ: MAK – Abdullah Azzam’s Arab Service Bureau

Gen 1: commonality – AfghanistanGen 2: commonality – BosniaGen 3: commonality – Chechnya/Georgia

AQ 4.0= ??

The shift to ideology – “Global Jihad” – Self-Declaring Groups?

Who is the Enemy? II• Krauthammer: “”Existential Threat”

• Powell (etc.): Terrorism

• Bush: Islamofacism?

GEN Petraues: DoD FM 3-24 (COIN)

Kilcullen et al: Global Insurgency??

What is al Qaeda?

Important dates:

1918 -1924 End of Caliphate1945 -1948 Creation of Israel1979 (1499) Soviet Invasion of AFG, Iranian Revolution AND

the Siege of Mecca1988 Soviet Withdrawal AFG1990/1 Fall of USSR / Gulf War I

The Power of Words

The World as Heretical, to be cleansed forcibly by Islam which is a “Revolutionary Party”Sayyed QUTB

Jihad as a Global BrandAbdullah AZZAM

We can Destroy the Zionist-Crusaders as we did the Soviet Union. All Muslims must fight. ZAWAHIRI

War’s Objective is Allah’s Sovereignty. Terror is our main weapon in Jihad. Brig S.K. Malik

TAKE-HOME

AQ is just a small part of a much larger and older movement

That movement has a plan to destroy our system using ALL means – not just violence

This includes political and economic warfare and very sophisticated information operations

This war is potentially more dangerous than even the Cold War

We need a REAL Strategy

We Knew More 7 Years Ago

Our enemy “is sophisticated, patient, disciplined and lethal.”

“the institutions charged with protecting our national security did not understand how grave this threat could be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it.”

“In short, the United States has to help defeat an ideology, not just a group of people.

The 9/11 Commission Report

Two Enemies, One Goal

Non-Violent Jihadists: e.g. Muslim Brotherhood

Violent Jihadists:

AQAM

Sharia Law /Caliphate

From: S. Gorka and D. Kilcullen: An Actor-Centric Theory of War – JFQ 60, 2011

The New Threat Environment: Not so

New!

Dr. Sebastian L. v. Gorka

Tel. 703 300 5014

gorka@defenddemocracy.org

seb.gorka@gmail.com

QUESTIONS?