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Ealing 14 – 19 Conference
Thursday 24th November 2016
CHILDREN’S & ADULTS’ SERVICES
14-19 National Policy 2
Image by TangYau Hoong
A new phase. And for education… Key features
• Brought together under one Dept • Seen as a key driver in the creation of the great meritocracy
• Some important Bills coming up
‒ Children and Social Work Bill ‒ Technical and Further Education Bill ‒ Higher Education and Research Bill ‒ Digital Economy Bill
• Subject to some important inquiries and consultations
‒ DfE on primary assessment ‒ DfE on national funding formula ‒ PAC on Apprenticeships ‒ BEIS on Industrial Strategy ‒ DWP on opportunities for young people ‒ NAO into NCS ‒ DfE on Brexit and HE
• Managing some significant reforms on academic and technical routes
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Current education policy in the round
For schools • Grammars • 3 As (assessment, achievement and accountability) • Fair Funding
For FE • 3 L s • 3m apprenticeships • Structural reviews
For HE • TEF (quality) • Social Mobility • An open market
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Seven key priority areas
1.Managing a programme of qualification reform and accountability
2.Developing an appropriate technical route for young people
3.Supporting the teaching workforce
4.Dealing with continuous system reform
5.Managing ongoing financial pressures
6.Surviving Brexit
7.Keeping an eye on the road ahead
5
Current policy • Ensure young people are equipped with future skills, contribute to 3m apprenticeship target Current position • New Skills Plan building on Wolf reforms • Destination rate: 88% into ‘sustained’ education or employment after KS5 (2014/15) • Apprenticeships: 2.4m starts 2010 - 15, ½ m current starts, 130,000 @ 16-19 • Traineeships: 19,400 starts in year 2014/15 • BTECs undergoing reform programme • Functional skills reform programme continuing Latest developments • Launch of Post – 16 Skills Plan (July • Annual CBI/Pearson Employers’ Survey (July) • OECD ‘Education at a Glance’ report (Sept) • Publication of the ‘Baker’ 14-19 Bacc (Sept) • Labour policy pledge on EMAs (Sept) • Apprenticeship funding reforms confirmed (Oct) • Launch of Careers Compass app (Nov) • Wolf report on tertiary system (Nov)
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2. Developing appropriate technical routes for young people
2. What does it all mean?
1. Focus on streamlining post-16 pathways • Skills Plan proposing ‘two distinct pathways’ • Technical pathway to have initial 15 routes and two modes of learning • Key issues include: AGQs, single occupational qual, IfATE role, bridging • Further announcements due later this year, start 2019, roll-out 2022
2. Development of apprenticeship system • Funding arrangements for 2017 confirmed but unease about levy and some funding bands • New register of providers open but concerns about lack of EPA bodies • IfATE given key supervisory role, strategic plan coming • Skills Minister highlighting 5 priorities: the target; levy; quality; prestige; social impact
4. Continuing concerns about careers guidance
• Series of reports but little in way of resolution • National Careers Strategy promised, Committee pressing • CEC work on business mentors and cold spots • Adoption of identified benchmarks (Holman, Ofsted checks)
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4. Continuous system reform
Current policy • Continual pursuit of more efficient, responsive, high-quality service Current position • Consultation out on reform of school system • SFCs considering Academy transition • Area review process moving into final phases • HE reforms being legislated for under the HE Bill • Employer ownership of the skills system Manifesto pledges • Expand number of Free Schools, Academies and UTCs • Devolve skills spending and planning powers to London Mayor, deliver more Growth Deals • Develop a teaching quality framework for HE
Latest developments • EPI/Sutton Trust reports on MAT performance (July) • Prime Minister’s ‘Great Meritocracy’ speech (Sept) • Schools Green Paper (Sept) • EPI Report on grammar schools (Sept) • TFE Bill (Nov) • HEFCE Report on financial health of HE sector (Nov) • Wolf report on sub-degree tech provision (Nov)
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5. Managing financial pressures
Current policy • Maintain efficiency of services, limit pay and capital increases, spread burden
Current position • Some budget stability provided by 2015 Spending Review • Consultation continuing on school fair funding but worries about regional impact • 16 – 19 under extreme pressure, seeking some refuge in academisation • FE and HE reliant on levy and loans, concerns about future of overseas fee
income • Government keen to align funding to quality of outcome where possible Manifesto pledges • Invest (£7bn) in good school places • Protect level of funding in schools • Stick to financial targets
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5. What does it all mean?
1.Backcloth of economic uncertainty • UK growth: 2.7% for 2016, 0.7% for 2017, inflation at 1.3% this year, 2.8% for
2017 • Consumer confidence holding for rest of 2016 but low (0.9%) for 2017 1. Range of current pressures • Tight overall Dept budget • Commitments to PP and MFG • £160m ‘savings’ for 16 – 19 to come from gradual scrapping of protections by
2019/20 • Shift towards loans and levy for skills and HE provision • Pressures on school places and costs • Pay and pensions
2. Development of new fair funding formula • Introduction at a time of funding restraint and uncertainty • Balancing winners and losers • Use of 4 standard ‘building blocks’ (per pupil, additional needs, school costs,
area costs) • Use as a reward under Green Paper proposals
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6. What does it all mean?
1. Broadly a 3-stage process • Initial impact stage drawing to a close, little evidence of ‘post-traumatic stress disorder’ • Key negotiation stage being lined up, battle of ideologies, some market reactions • After shocks may permeate for some time, dependent on market reactions to exit process 2. Current pressure points • Costs, of the divorce (€20bn) and potentially long-term £66bn pa • Positions on the 4 great freedoms: goods, services, capital, people • Visas, freedom of movement and status of citizens • Trading arrangements, single market, WTO • “I get Europe, Liam gets the rest, Boris sets the mood” 3. Some positives • Commitment to fund EU students who start before Brexit to allow them to finish courses • Commitment to fund some pre Brexit projects such as Erasmus up to 2020 • MPs to be given greater say through Select Committee and debate 4. For 14-19, three issues at present • Impact on student and teacher movement and recruitment • Potential loss of ESF funding from 2020 • But possible increase in demand for indigenous skills training cf Farmer Report on Construction
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7. The road ahead Some critical questions
• The changing labour market: how does 14-19’s best make its contribution to the new
economic model
• Core skills: ensuring young people are equipped with the essential skills for modern life
• Tech education proposals : helping to substantiate the dual route (at last) • Leadership and management: ensuring future managers have the skills and space to be
able to generate success
• Structural reform: developing the right structures
• Provider performance: delivering success within a climate of ever more demanding efficiencies and accountabilities
• Responsiveness: being able to respond to differing regional, community and sector specific expectations
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There’s so much more to learn
Find out more about or keep up to date with the latest developments in the world of education at http://uk.pearson.com/home/policy-watch.html or
@SteveBesley
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
The changing skills landscape in London
London and England - ONS 2012
ONS (2012)
England London
55,414,500 people in 2017 8,870,600 people in 2017
62,166,000 people in 2037 10,662,200 people in 2037
2017 2037
London and England - ONS 2016
ONS (2016)
England London
55,640,559 people in 2017 8,958,027 people in 2017
62,699,661 people in 2037 10,819,856 people in 2037
2017 2037
Highest projected growth
ONS: Subnational population projections for England: 2014-based projections (2016)
Over 10 year period
Mid 2014 Mid 2024 Projected change
Percentage change
Tower Hamlets 284,000 355,400 71,400 25.1
Barking and Dagenham 198,300 237,500 39,200 19.7
Newham 324,300 380,800 56,500 17.4
Camden 234,800 275,500 40,700 17.3
Corby 65,400 76,400 11,000 16.7
Islington 221,000 257,700 36,700 16.6
Redbridge 293,100 341,200 48,100 16.4
Hackney 263,200 306,300 43,100 16.4
Kingston upon Thames 170,000 197,600 27,600 16.2
Hillingdon 292,700 339,900 47,200 16.1 Local authorities in England with the highest projected percentage population growth between mid-2014 and mid-2024
Employees per square km in 2013 – where people work
GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills across London as a whole (2016)
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS Contains National Statistics data © Crown copyright and database right 2015 Contains Ordinance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2015
Employee jobs in London by broad industry sector 2009 and 2014
GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills across London as a whole (2016)
Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey
Employee jobs West London by broad industry sector 2009 & 2014
Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey
GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills in London and the West Sub-region (2016)
Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) provisional results: 2014
Industries that make up professional, scientific and technical 2014 (UK)
GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills across London as a whole (2016)
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
Qualifications (%) of London’s residents (working age population (16-64), 2004-2014)
Implications for London • Increasingly connected to the global economy,
specialising in ‘high value business services’: finance & insurance, real estate, professional & technical service activities, and information & communication sectors
• Many services have grouped together in specific locations; some areas (particularly central) have relatively high levels of employment compared to London average
• A growing population generates demand for localised services - education, healthcare, retail and other customer services - these industries are likely to continue to grow in line with London’s future population
GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills across London as a whole (2016)
Implications for London • Longer term, projections suggest total workforce jobs are likely
to increase from 5.5m in 2014 to 6.4m in 2036, an annual average increase of 41,000 jobs per year - this growth in the labour market is projected to be underpinned by increases in professional, real estate, scientific and technical services, administrative and support services, accommodation and food services, and information and communication
• Professionals, skilled trades, and managers, directors and senior officials are each projected to increase their share of total London employment from 2014 to 2036
• This further shift towards more professional and senior roles is likely to be associated with increasing demand for higher level skills and qualifications
GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills across London as a whole (2016)
Implications for the UK
UK Commission for Employment and Skills – Skills Survey 2015
51% of vacancies in skilled trade areas are hard to fill due to a
shortage of people with the right skills
Priorities for London
Cementing existing leadership: The Global Hub
1.Stay open for business 2.Increase focus on emerging markets 3.Improve global access
Fuelling more diverse growth: The Creative Engine
4.Train more technical talent 5.Improve digital connectivity 6.Improve funding for growing SMEs
Addressing weaknesses: The City that Works
7.Secure long-term infrastructure investment 8.Accelerate housing delivery 9.Develop Londoners’ employability
London Enterprise Panel London 2036: an agenda for jobs and growth (2015)
Critical: train more technical talent
• Train more technical talent: respond to market shortages of technically capable workers by improving education and training at all levels from school through to adult education
• Improving the supply of technically-qualified people will require a range of measures: – adjustments to school curriculums and career advice – changes of emphasis in both further and higher education – greater levels of industry co-operation and provision
London Enterprise Panel London 2036: an agenda for jobs and growth (2015)
Critical: train more technical talent
• Working collectively across the stakeholder groups London needs to:
– ƒunderstand the true nature of the talent gaps – Develop more routes for technical occupations and
encourage their take-up at age 16 and 18 – More take-up of Apprenticeships at L3 and L4 – More part-time, affordable routes to get higher education
qualifications – Create more STEM training routes based on good Maths and
Science attainment at school
London Enterprise Panel London 2036: an agenda for jobs and growth (2015)
Institute of Directors: Lifelong Learning Reforming education for an age of technological and demographic change 2016
Demographic and technological changes are transforming the world of work. The way
these changes increasingly place a premium on particular skills suggests that education
and training are of vital importance. Consequently, the education sector will need to innovate if it is to keep up with
evolving employment demands.
Government, educators, employers and learners themselves need to prepare for
developing the skills businesses will need to compete in the face of intensifying
competition and market volatility. Managing this transition in the nature of employment
will require a renewed focus on the importance of lifelong engagement in
education and training.
EALING
REGENERATION & HOUSING
Residents and Work
• 128,000 jobs in Ealing • 93,000 f/t jobs & 35,000 p/t jobs • 165,000 Ealing residents in employment • 2.6% 18-24 on Jobseekers Allowance
(London Average 2.2%)
West London Jobs by Industry Accounting for around 60% of employment: • Admin & support services • Scientific and Technical Activities • Wholesale & Retail • Transport and Storage • Human Health & Social Work activities Information & communications also concentrated in West London but smaller numbers
Employment Growth - West London 52,000 jobs forecast to be created 2015-2022; areas expected to include: • Construction & engineering • Human health • Passenger transport • Logistics Which will have a positive impact on hospitality & retail, education, food manufacturing
Businesses in Ealing
• 16,870 businesses in Ealing • Number of businesses has increased in
Ealing • Entrepreneurial borough with the
highest rate of start-ups in West London
Businesses by size
Business on our Doorstep • Heathrow – more opportunities if
expansion goes ahead (6 miles away) • Park Royal – 2000 businesses and
40,000 employees • White City/Westfield • Crossrail – bringing people and jobs to
the borough
Ealing – 5 Crossrail Stations
Journey times decrease - Ealing to Central London
• Half the journey times • 18 minutes to the city • 15 minutes to Heathrow • Ealing – The new Zone 1?
Dickens Yard • 700 new homes • 10,000 sq m of
retail space • Community
space • New town
square • On track for
completion date
• New businesses have begun to occupy units
Key development sites - 9-42 The Broadway
Filmworks - Cinema Site
Filmworks
Ealing Broadway Centre
Mini-Holland – cycling schemes
• Six-phase project to improve accessibility across the borough • Phase 1 – start Oct 16 – from the Mall to the North Circular • Improvements include more visible cycle path/ pedestrian and
cycle crossings
Southall Gas Works
Old Oak Common
Heathrow expansion
Heathrow Expansion
• The proposed Heathrow expansion could create and additional:
• 180,000 Jobs • 10,000 Apprentices
Manor House & DISH
Priority Economic Growth Areas
Construction
& STEM
Transport & Logistics
Digital
Media Health &
Social Care LLDD
What is a pathway? After age 16..
• Young people ‘vote with their feet’ to choose 16-18 provision
• We, as a local partnership of providers, need to ensure we have pathways and places for everyone
• Providers can specialise in qualifications – and that can limit recruitment
• All young people must find and attend some 16-18 provision (RPA) , and we must support them to find the right offer
• As providers, how do we know what we need locally?
Ealing Progression Pathways 2014-2016
Ealing Progression Pathways – 2014 – 2016 - Year 11 Leavers
Highest Achievement
% of 2014 Yr11 Leaver Cohort
with this as highest
achievement
% of 2015 Yr11 Leaver Cohort
with this as highest
achievement
Pathway required
2016 (provisional)* NEW METHODOLOGY
Yr 11 Leavers with highest known achievement
A
L2 threshold with English and Maths
59.8% (1749)
62.1 (1751)
Ready for Level 3 in 2014 and 2015
Who is ready in 2016?
58.1% (1614) old measure 5A*CEM 62.3%(1732) 5 A*CEM Eng Lang or Lit
64.4% (1789) A*CEM Lang or Lit
4.9% (136) achieved A*C ELit but not ELang
B
L2 with either English or
Maths (not both)
7.8% (288)
70.2% (204)
Ready for Level 3 with English /+ Maths support
9.9% (274) have A*CEng LorL but not Ma 6.2% (173) have A*CMa but not Eng
C L2 without English or
Maths, may have English + Maths at L1
0.3% (9)
0.4% (10)
Formerly would have been Level 3 candidates. Now need
to repeat Level 2; with emphasis on English + Maths
support for Level 2 achievement.
7.5% (205) have 5A*CnoEM 3.9% (107) have no5A*C with either Eng or Ma D-G
D Level 1 (D-G) with English + Maths
25.1% (734)
21.8% (614)
Ready for Level 2, with focus on English and Maths at Level 2
13.2% (366) have D-G in EngMA
E
At Entry Level; predominantly E/F/G
and similar attainment; some may have EAL,
SEND and other additional needs
4.9% (142)
7% (193)
Entry Level 3 or Level 1) with English and Maths. Other
specialist programmes with appropriate support.
2.7% (75) have no passes or results in English or maths
*Data on 5A*-C in 2016 has been manually calculated as the measure is no longer provided in DfE data, it may therefore not match DfE published figures or take into accounted subject discounting.
Provider Pathways
• Choice is partly determined by qualification attainment at age 16
• The pattern of attainment for Ealing year 11 leavers is set out on our pathways analysis
• The pattern does not vary a lot from year to year
• This year, with introduction of Progress and Attainment 8, the data we have is different
2016: ‘New’ Measure ; GCSE A*-CEM
KPI 2015 2014
(NA)
2013
(NA)
Target
2015
Comment
5A*-CEM 61.2%
(FFTB
60%)
59.8%
(56.6%
)
60.9%
(60.6%
)
64% Below target, improving, well above
NA 2014 and London 2014 (60.6%)
and above 2013 – pre Wolf and first
/ best grade reforms. Below Outer
London 2014 (61.7%)
KPI 2016 2015 2014 2013 Comment
A*-CEM
Outer
London
London
NA
SN average
Stat
neighbours
APS
64.0%
66.5%
65.9%
62.6%
67%
8/11
tbc
63.8%
62.4%
61.5
59.2%
5/11
9/11
62.3%
66%
65.1%
56.6%
7/11
9/11
61.8%
66.7%
65.9%
61.3%
10/11
10/11
• Improving over last 4 years
• Above the National Average
• Below the London and
Outer London average
• Below SN average
• 2016 at FFT 20 for EM (64%)
• Improving against stat
neighbours
• APS 2016 tbc
2016 ‘Old’ Measure : GCSE 5A*-CEM
KPI 2015 2014
(NA)
2013
(NA)
Target
2015
Comment
5A*-CEM 61.2%
(FFTB
60%)
59.8%
(56.6%
)
60.9%
(60.6%
)
64% Below target, improving, well above
NA 2014 and London 2014 (60.6%)
and above 2013 – pre Wolf and first
/ best grade reforms. Below Outer
London 2014 (61.7%)
KPI 2016 2015 2014
(NA)
2013
(NA)
Comment
5A*-CEM
NA Outer L
London
SN average
Stat
neighbours
58.1%
57.0%
60.4%
59.7%
60.7%
7/11
62.1%
57.3%
61.4%
60.9%
61.7%
5/11
59.8%
56.8%
62.4%
61.5%
63.3%
8/11
60.9%
60.8%
66.0%
65.1%
65.2%
10/11
• Decline by 4% from 2016,
below 2014
• Just above NA
• Below London, OL & SN
• Declining against statistical
neighbours
• 8 schools fell in this measure,
5 by 10% or more
Ealing GCSE performance : Changing measures; from 5A*CEM to A*-CEM (inc Eng Lit)
• 5A*-CEM measure fell from 62.1% in 2015- 58.1% in 2016
• This equates to 120 fewer students gaining the measure which has been the benchmark for entry to Level 3 courses
• 136 students this year gained 5A*-CEM but did not gain a grade C in English Language (C gained in English Literature)
• 18 students gained A*-CEM with English Literature not Language and did not gain 5A*-C overall
• 39 students A*-CEM with English Language but did not gain 5A*-C overall
• 205 students have 5A*-C without E or M (2015: 10 2014: 9)
• Should all students with English Lit and not Language at grade C resit Language? (This is not funded.)
Boosting technical pathways • Sainsbury Review and 16+ Skills Plan
• Main driver is the ‘skills gap’, especially gaps at intermediate technical level
• Word ‘vocational’ has disappeared
• Following international practice, creation of 15 ‘technical routes’; within each route there will be a number of sub-pathways
• Implementation Plan in December 2016
• New DfE ‘pathways’ diagram creates alternative academic and technical pathways after GCSE
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