ealing 14 – 19 conference thursday 24th november 2016 ... · cementing existing leadership: the...

Ealing 14 – 19 Conference

Thursday 24th November 2016

CHILDREN’S & ADULTS’ SERVICES

14-19 National Policy 2

Image by TangYau Hoong

A new phase. And for education… Key features

• Brought together under one Dept • Seen as a key driver in the creation of the great meritocracy

• Some important Bills coming up

‒ Children and Social Work Bill ‒ Technical and Further Education Bill ‒ Higher Education and Research Bill ‒ Digital Economy Bill

• Subject to some important inquiries and consultations

‒ DfE on primary assessment ‒ DfE on national funding formula ‒ PAC on Apprenticeships ‒ BEIS on Industrial Strategy ‒ DWP on opportunities for young people ‒ NAO into NCS ‒ DfE on Brexit and HE

• Managing some significant reforms on academic and technical routes

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Current education policy in the round

For schools • Grammars • 3 As (assessment, achievement and accountability) • Fair Funding

For FE • 3 L s • 3m apprenticeships • Structural reviews

For HE • TEF (quality) • Social Mobility • An open market

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Seven key priority areas

1.Managing a programme of qualification reform and accountability

2.Developing an appropriate technical route for young people

3.Supporting the teaching workforce

4.Dealing with continuous system reform

5.Managing ongoing financial pressures

6.Surviving Brexit

7.Keeping an eye on the road ahead

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Current policy • Ensure young people are equipped with future skills, contribute to 3m apprenticeship target Current position • New Skills Plan building on Wolf reforms • Destination rate: 88% into ‘sustained’ education or employment after KS5 (2014/15) • Apprenticeships: 2.4m starts 2010 - 15, ½ m current starts, 130,000 @ 16-19 • Traineeships: 19,400 starts in year 2014/15 • BTECs undergoing reform programme • Functional skills reform programme continuing Latest developments • Launch of Post – 16 Skills Plan (July • Annual CBI/Pearson Employers’ Survey (July) • OECD ‘Education at a Glance’ report (Sept) • Publication of the ‘Baker’ 14-19 Bacc (Sept) • Labour policy pledge on EMAs (Sept) • Apprenticeship funding reforms confirmed (Oct) • Launch of Careers Compass app (Nov) • Wolf report on tertiary system (Nov)

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2. Developing appropriate technical routes for young people

2. What does it all mean?

1. Focus on streamlining post-16 pathways • Skills Plan proposing ‘two distinct pathways’ • Technical pathway to have initial 15 routes and two modes of learning • Key issues include: AGQs, single occupational qual, IfATE role, bridging • Further announcements due later this year, start 2019, roll-out 2022

2. Development of apprenticeship system • Funding arrangements for 2017 confirmed but unease about levy and some funding bands • New register of providers open but concerns about lack of EPA bodies • IfATE given key supervisory role, strategic plan coming • Skills Minister highlighting 5 priorities: the target; levy; quality; prestige; social impact

4. Continuing concerns about careers guidance

• Series of reports but little in way of resolution • National Careers Strategy promised, Committee pressing • CEC work on business mentors and cold spots • Adoption of identified benchmarks (Holman, Ofsted checks)

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4. Continuous system reform

Current policy • Continual pursuit of more efficient, responsive, high-quality service Current position • Consultation out on reform of school system • SFCs considering Academy transition • Area review process moving into final phases • HE reforms being legislated for under the HE Bill • Employer ownership of the skills system Manifesto pledges • Expand number of Free Schools, Academies and UTCs • Devolve skills spending and planning powers to London Mayor, deliver more Growth Deals • Develop a teaching quality framework for HE

Latest developments • EPI/Sutton Trust reports on MAT performance (July) • Prime Minister’s ‘Great Meritocracy’ speech (Sept) • Schools Green Paper (Sept) • EPI Report on grammar schools (Sept) • TFE Bill (Nov) • HEFCE Report on financial health of HE sector (Nov) • Wolf report on sub-degree tech provision (Nov)

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5. Managing financial pressures

Current policy • Maintain efficiency of services, limit pay and capital increases, spread burden

Current position • Some budget stability provided by 2015 Spending Review • Consultation continuing on school fair funding but worries about regional impact • 16 – 19 under extreme pressure, seeking some refuge in academisation • FE and HE reliant on levy and loans, concerns about future of overseas fee

income • Government keen to align funding to quality of outcome where possible Manifesto pledges • Invest (£7bn) in good school places • Protect level of funding in schools • Stick to financial targets

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1.Backcloth of economic uncertainty • UK growth: 2.7% for 2016, 0.7% for 2017, inflation at 1.3% this year, 2.8% for

2017 • Consumer confidence holding for rest of 2016 but low (0.9%) for 2017 1. Range of current pressures • Tight overall Dept budget • Commitments to PP and MFG • £160m ‘savings’ for 16 – 19 to come from gradual scrapping of protections by

2019/20 • Shift towards loans and levy for skills and HE provision • Pressures on school places and costs • Pay and pensions

2. Development of new fair funding formula • Introduction at a time of funding restraint and uncertainty • Balancing winners and losers • Use of 4 standard ‘building blocks’ (per pupil, additional needs, school costs,

area costs) • Use as a reward under Green Paper proposals

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1. Broadly a 3-stage process • Initial impact stage drawing to a close, little evidence of ‘post-traumatic stress disorder’ • Key negotiation stage being lined up, battle of ideologies, some market reactions • After shocks may permeate for some time, dependent on market reactions to exit process 2. Current pressure points • Costs, of the divorce (€20bn) and potentially long-term £66bn pa • Positions on the 4 great freedoms: goods, services, capital, people • Visas, freedom of movement and status of citizens • Trading arrangements, single market, WTO • “I get Europe, Liam gets the rest, Boris sets the mood” 3. Some positives • Commitment to fund EU students who start before Brexit to allow them to finish courses • Commitment to fund some pre Brexit projects such as Erasmus up to 2020 • MPs to be given greater say through Select Committee and debate 4. For 14-19, three issues at present • Impact on student and teacher movement and recruitment • Potential loss of ESF funding from 2020 • But possible increase in demand for indigenous skills training cf Farmer Report on Construction

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7. The road ahead Some critical questions

• The changing labour market: how does 14-19’s best make its contribution to the new

economic model

• Core skills: ensuring young people are equipped with the essential skills for modern life

• Tech education proposals : helping to substantiate the dual route (at last) • Leadership and management: ensuring future managers have the skills and space to be

able to generate success

• Structural reform: developing the right structures

• Provider performance: delivering success within a climate of ever more demanding efficiencies and accountabilities

• Responsiveness: being able to respond to differing regional, community and sector specific expectations

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There’s so much more to learn

Find out more about or keep up to date with the latest developments in the world of education at http://uk.pearson.com/home/policy-watch.html or

@SteveBesley

http://uk.pearson.com/home/policy-watch.html




www.londoncouncils.gov.uk

The changing skills landscape in London

London and England - ONS 2012

ONS (2012)

England London

55,414,500 people in 2017 8,870,600 people in 2017


2017 2037

London and England - ONS 2016

ONS (2016)

England London



2017 2037

Highest projected growth

ONS: Subnational population projections for England: 2014-based projections (2016)

Over 10 year period

Mid 2014 Mid 2024 Projected change

Percentage change

Tower Hamlets 284,000 355,400 71,400 25.1

Barking and Dagenham 198,300 237,500 39,200 19.7

Newham 324,300 380,800 56,500 17.4

Camden 234,800 275,500 40,700 17.3

Corby 65,400 76,400 11,000 16.7

Islington 221,000 257,700 36,700 16.6

Redbridge 293,100 341,200 48,100 16.4

Hackney 263,200 306,300 43,100 16.4

Kingston upon Thames 170,000 197,600 27,600 16.2

Hillingdon 292,700 339,900 47,200 16.1 Local authorities in England with the highest projected percentage population growth between mid-2014 and mid-2024

Employees per square km in 2013 – where people work

GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills across London as a whole (2016)

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS Contains National Statistics data © Crown copyright and database right 2015 Contains Ordinance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2015

Employee jobs in London by broad industry sector 2009 and 2014


Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey

Employee jobs West London by broad industry sector 2009 & 2014

Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey

GLA Economics: Trends in the demand for labour and skills in London and the West Sub-region (2016)

Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) provisional results: 2014

Industries that make up professional, scientific and technical 2014 (UK)


Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

Qualifications (%) of London’s residents (working age population (16-64), 2004-2014)

Implications for London • Increasingly connected to the global economy,

specialising in ‘high value business services’: finance & insurance, real estate, professional & technical service activities, and information & communication sectors

• Many services have grouped together in specific locations; some areas (particularly central) have relatively high levels of employment compared to London average

• A growing population generates demand for localised services - education, healthcare, retail and other customer services - these industries are likely to continue to grow in line with London’s future population


Implications for London • Longer term, projections suggest total workforce jobs are likely

to increase from 5.5m in 2014 to 6.4m in 2036, an annual average increase of 41,000 jobs per year - this growth in the labour market is projected to be underpinned by increases in professional, real estate, scientific and technical services, administrative and support services, accommodation and food services, and information and communication

• Professionals, skilled trades, and managers, directors and senior officials are each projected to increase their share of total London employment from 2014 to 2036

• This further shift towards more professional and senior roles is likely to be associated with increasing demand for higher level skills and qualifications


Implications for the UK

UK Commission for Employment and Skills – Skills Survey 2015

51% of vacancies in skilled trade areas are hard to fill due to a

shortage of people with the right skills

Priorities for London

Cementing existing leadership: The Global Hub

1.Stay open for business 2.Increase focus on emerging markets 3.Improve global access

Fuelling more diverse growth: The Creative Engine

4.Train more technical talent 5.Improve digital connectivity 6.Improve funding for growing SMEs

Addressing weaknesses: The City that Works

7.Secure long-term infrastructure investment 8.Accelerate housing delivery 9.Develop Londoners’ employability

London Enterprise Panel London 2036: an agenda for jobs and growth (2015)

Critical: train more technical talent

• Train more technical talent: respond to market shortages of technically capable workers by improving education and training at all levels from school through to adult education

• Improving the supply of technically-qualified people will require a range of measures: – adjustments to school curriculums and career advice – changes of emphasis in both further and higher education – greater levels of industry co-operation and provision


Critical: train more technical talent

• Working collectively across the stakeholder groups London needs to:

– ƒunderstand the true nature of the talent gaps – Develop more routes for technical occupations and

encourage their take-up at age 16 and 18 – More take-up of Apprenticeships at L3 and L4 – More part-time, affordable routes to get higher education

qualifications – Create more STEM training routes based on good Maths and

Science attainment at school


Institute of Directors: Lifelong Learning Reforming education for an age of technological and demographic change 2016

Demographic and technological changes are transforming the world of work. The way

these changes increasingly place a premium on particular skills suggests that education

and training are of vital importance. Consequently, the education sector will need to innovate if it is to keep up with

evolving employment demands.

Government, educators, employers and learners themselves need to prepare for

developing the skills businesses will need to compete in the face of intensifying

competition and market volatility. Managing this transition in the nature of employment

will require a renewed focus on the importance of lifelong engagement in

education and training.

EALING

REGENERATION & HOUSING

Residents and Work

• 128,000 jobs in Ealing • 93,000 f/t jobs & 35,000 p/t jobs • 165,000 Ealing residents in employment • 2.6% 18-24 on Jobseekers Allowance

(London Average 2.2%)

West London Jobs by Industry Accounting for around 60% of employment: • Admin & support services • Scientific and Technical Activities • Wholesale & Retail • Transport and Storage • Human Health & Social Work activities Information & communications also concentrated in West London but smaller numbers

Employment Growth - West London 52,000 jobs forecast to be created 2015-2022; areas expected to include: • Construction & engineering • Human health • Passenger transport • Logistics Which will have a positive impact on hospitality & retail, education, food manufacturing

Businesses in Ealing

• 16,870 businesses in Ealing • Number of businesses has increased in

Ealing • Entrepreneurial borough with the

highest rate of start-ups in West London

Businesses by size

Business on our Doorstep • Heathrow – more opportunities if

expansion goes ahead (6 miles away) • Park Royal – 2000 businesses and

40,000 employees • White City/Westfield • Crossrail – bringing people and jobs to

the borough

Ealing – 5 Crossrail Stations

Journey times decrease - Ealing to Central London

• Half the journey times • 18 minutes to the city • 15 minutes to Heathrow • Ealing – The new Zone 1?

Dickens Yard • 700 new homes • 10,000 sq m of

retail space • Community

space • New town

square • On track for

completion date

• New businesses have begun to occupy units

Key development sites - 9-42 The Broadway

Filmworks - Cinema Site

Filmworks

Ealing Broadway Centre

Mini-Holland – cycling schemes

• Six-phase project to improve accessibility across the borough • Phase 1 – start Oct 16 – from the Mall to the North Circular • Improvements include more visible cycle path/ pedestrian and

cycle crossings

Southall Gas Works

Old Oak Common

Heathrow expansion

Heathrow Expansion

• The proposed Heathrow expansion could create and additional:

• 180,000 Jobs • 10,000 Apprentices

Manor House & DISH

Priority Economic Growth Areas

Construction

& STEM

Transport & Logistics

Digital

Media Health &

Social Care LLDD

What is a pathway? After age 16..

• Young people ‘vote with their feet’ to choose 16-18 provision

• We, as a local partnership of providers, need to ensure we have pathways and places for everyone

• Providers can specialise in qualifications – and that can limit recruitment

• All young people must find and attend some 16-18 provision (RPA) , and we must support them to find the right offer

• As providers, how do we know what we need locally?

Ealing Progression Pathways 2014-2016

Ealing Progression Pathways – 2014 – 2016 - Year 11 Leavers

Highest Achievement

% of 2014 Yr11 Leaver Cohort

with this as highest

achievement

% of 2015 Yr11 Leaver Cohort

with this as highest

achievement

Pathway required

2016 (provisional)* NEW METHODOLOGY

Yr 11 Leavers with highest known achievement

A

L2 threshold with English and Maths

59.8% (1749)

62.1 (1751)

Ready for Level 3 in 2014 and 2015

Who is ready in 2016?

58.1% (1614) old measure 5A*CEM 62.3%(1732) 5 A*CEM Eng Lang or Lit

64.4% (1789) A*CEM Lang or Lit

4.9% (136) achieved A*C ELit but not ELang

B

L2 with either English or

Maths (not both)

7.8% (288)

70.2% (204)

Ready for Level 3 with English /+ Maths support

9.9% (274) have A*CEng LorL but not Ma 6.2% (173) have A*CMa but not Eng

C L2 without English or

Maths, may have English + Maths at L1

0.3% (9)

0.4% (10)

Formerly would have been Level 3 candidates. Now need

to repeat Level 2; with emphasis on English + Maths

support for Level 2 achievement.

7.5% (205) have 5A*CnoEM 3.9% (107) have no5A*C with either Eng or Ma D-G

D Level 1 (D-G) with English + Maths

25.1% (734)

21.8% (614)

Ready for Level 2, with focus on English and Maths at Level 2

13.2% (366) have D-G in EngMA

E

At Entry Level; predominantly E/F/G

and similar attainment; some may have EAL,

SEND and other additional needs

4.9% (142)

7% (193)

Entry Level 3 or Level 1) with English and Maths. Other

specialist programmes with appropriate support.

2.7% (75) have no passes or results in English or maths

*Data on 5A*-C in 2016 has been manually calculated as the measure is no longer provided in DfE data, it may therefore not match DfE published figures or take into accounted subject discounting.

Provider Pathways

• Choice is partly determined by qualification attainment at age 16

• The pattern of attainment for Ealing year 11 leavers is set out on our pathways analysis

• The pattern does not vary a lot from year to year

• This year, with introduction of Progress and Attainment 8, the data we have is different

2016: ‘New’ Measure ; GCSE A*-CEM

KPI 2015 2014

(NA)

2013

(NA)

Target

2015

Comment

5A*-CEM 61.2%

(FFTB

60%)

59.8%

(56.6%

)

60.9%

(60.6%

)

64% Below target, improving, well above

NA 2014 and London 2014 (60.6%)

and above 2013 – pre Wolf and first

/ best grade reforms. Below Outer

London 2014 (61.7%)

KPI 2016 2015 2014 2013 Comment

A*-CEM

Outer

London

London

NA

SN average

Stat

neighbours

APS

64.0%

66.5%

65.9%

62.6%

67%

8/11

tbc

63.8%

62.4%

61.5

59.2%

5/11

9/11

62.3%

66%

65.1%

56.6%

7/11

9/11

61.8%

66.7%

65.9%

61.3%

10/11

10/11

• Improving over last 4 years

• Above the National Average

• Below the London and

Outer London average

• Below SN average

• 2016 at FFT 20 for EM (64%)

• Improving against stat

neighbours

• APS 2016 tbc

2016 ‘Old’ Measure : GCSE 5A*-CEM

KPI 2015 2014

(NA)

2013

(NA)

Target

2015

Comment

5A*-CEM 61.2%

(FFTB

60%)

59.8%

(56.6%

)

60.9%

(60.6%

)

64% Below target, improving, well above

NA 2014 and London 2014 (60.6%)

and above 2013 – pre Wolf and first

/ best grade reforms. Below Outer

London 2014 (61.7%)

KPI 2016 2015 2014

(NA)

2013

(NA)

Comment

5A*-CEM

NA Outer L

London

SN average

Stat

neighbours

58.1%

57.0%

60.4%

59.7%

60.7%

7/11

62.1%

57.3%

61.4%

60.9%

61.7%

5/11

59.8%

56.8%

62.4%

61.5%

63.3%

8/11

60.9%

60.8%

66.0%

65.1%

65.2%

10/11

• Decline by 4% from 2016,

below 2014

• Just above NA

• Below London, OL & SN

• Declining against statistical

neighbours

• 8 schools fell in this measure,

5 by 10% or more

Ealing GCSE performance : Changing measures; from 5A*CEM to A*-CEM (inc Eng Lit)

• 5A*-CEM measure fell from 62.1% in 2015- 58.1% in 2016

• This equates to 120 fewer students gaining the measure which has been the benchmark for entry to Level 3 courses

• 136 students this year gained 5A*-CEM but did not gain a grade C in English Language (C gained in English Literature)

• 18 students gained A*-CEM with English Literature not Language and did not gain 5A*-C overall

• 39 students A*-CEM with English Language but did not gain 5A*-C overall

• 205 students have 5A*-C without E or M (2015: 10 2014: 9)

• Should all students with English Lit and not Language at grade C resit Language? (This is not funded.)

Boosting technical pathways • Sainsbury Review and 16+ Skills Plan

• Main driver is the ‘skills gap’, especially gaps at intermediate technical level

• Word ‘vocational’ has disappeared

• Following international practice, creation of 15 ‘technical routes’; within each route there will be a number of sub-pathways

• Implementation Plan in December 2016

• New DfE ‘pathways’ diagram creates alternative academic and technical pathways after GCSE

ealing 14 – 19 conference thursday 24th november 2016 ... · cementing existing leadership: the...

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