earthquake disaster mitigation

Social, Cultural and PoliticalAspects of Earthquake

Disaster Mitigation

David AlexanderUniversity College London

Theorem: A better knowledge of naturalhazards will contribute almost nothingto resolving the disasters problem...

...unless context is taken fully into account.

The Problem

Gertrude Stein,1913 [adapted]

A disaster isa disaster is a disaster...

Its "disastrousness" is notdefined by its causal agent.

Lesson to be learned:We will never even understandthe problem, let alone solve it,unless we start being realistic

about the world in which we live.

Analysis

• registered• archived• forgotten• ignored

Vulnerabilitymaintained-

• utilised• adopted• learned

Disasterriskreduced

+

LessonsPast

events

The process ofdisaster riskreduction(DRR)

• colossal imbalances in power and wealth

• immense but eminently solvable problemsthat are not solved because there ispowerful opposition to attempts to do so

• huge differences in thedefinition of what is rational

• many key activities are notlegitimate by any standards.

What is the world actually like?

• community-level DRR: communities arenot homogeneous or harmonious units

• communities are notparticularly interested in DRR

• neither are governments

• disasters can be explained withreference to power structures

Terry Cannon's observations onDisaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

• people, governments & communities seldomact on the basis of evidence and research

• rationality can only be defined in context.

• corruption

• political decision-making

• shoddy building (often wilful)

• ignorance (sometimes wilful)

• seismicity.

What causes earthquake disasters?- in probable order of importance -

Compared to theoriginal plans,this hospital lackedmore than 500concrete beams.In the earthquake,there was massmortality in thematernity wing.

NB: Correlation does not prove causation, but....

• difficult to define

• virtually impossible to measure

• extremely pervasive, endogenous

• moral and ethical frameworks vary

• links with other ills (black economy).

Corruption

Without corruption, the impact ofthis earthquake would have been

about 10% of what it actually was.

www.bbc.co.uk/news

Organisationalsystems:management

Socialsystems:behaviour

Naturalsystems:function

Technicalsystems:

malfunction

VulnerabilityHazard

Resilienc

e

Politicalsystems:decisions

ResilienceResistance

Risk Susceptibility

Physical(including natural,built, technological)

Social(including cultural,political, economic)

EnvironmentAtt

ribut

es

Source: McEntire 2001

Liabilities

Capa

bilities

VULNERABILITY

Diagnosis

• effect of heroin addiction onthe reconstruction of Bam, Iran

• introduction of repressive Shia andblasphemy laws in Aceh and Padang

• colossal waste of public money ontransitional shelter in L'Aquila, Italy

• government insensitivity to culturalheritage protection in Christchurch.

Reality check:

• widening wealth gap since 1970

• failure to divert resources fromresponse to prevention and mitigation

• half of world trade goesthrough 78 tax havens

• one fifth of world trade is illicit(drugs, armaments, people, species)

• relationship of proxy wars to aid.

More reality check:

• resources that debilitatelocal coping capacity

• munitions, military hardware, soldiertraining and some humanitarian stuff

• an instrument of political influence

• a means of liningcertain people's pockets.

What is aid?

• BIG concrete on poor people's land

• of direct benefit to the donor countries

• aid is in DEEP CRISIS.

What is aid?

" Experts talk of "building back better", ofconcepts like "resilience" and "sustainability",of crisis being opportunity in the way that itwas for the devastated cities of Germanyand Japan in 1945. ... The practice, as

Guardian writers have found out, can be verydifferent; piecemeal, dilatory, bureaucratic,venal even. Urban planners, it seems, nevermiss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.But occasionally, just occasionally, theysurprise on the upside too, and reimaginethe city in ways that might have beenimpossible had disaster not struck."

www.theguardian.com/cities/series/cities-back-from-the-brink

From 1703 until 2014, earthquakedisasters in L'Aquila have beendetermined by political decisions

"Our research shows that the successof early warning is largely determined

by politics, not science."- Chatham House, London

• consolidate power structures

• augment profits

• allow introduction of convenientlyrepressive measures

• permit gratuitous social engineering.

The economic and socialVALUE of disasters

BENIGN (healthy)at the service of the people

MALIGN (corrupt)at the service of vested interests

interplay dialectic

Justification Development

[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]

IDEOLOGY CULTURE

In disasters and disaster risk,how important is gender?

Kobe 1995 earthquake deathsby gender and age

― males ― females

Towards a cure

• advances in knowledgehave had a positive impact

• the whole problem is betterknown than ever before

• interdisciplinary research and problem-solving have made some progress

• but the balance is still weighted heavilyin favour of a worsening situation.

Correcting a one-sided picture:-

• science must not be allowed to be thejustification for political malpractice

• if you supply data, methods orresults you have some responsibilityfor how they are used

• accept that the primary effect ofhazards is determined by vulnerability.

Some precepts

Earthquake disasteras a negative windowof opportunity

But at the bottomthere was hope....

"Pandora's box"theory of disasters

• realism helps

• transparency is necessary

• gross inequality is in no one's interest

• national policies are needed and can work

• cultivate a flexible attitude.

The positive messages

david.alexander@ucl.ac.ukwww.slideshare.net/dealexanderemergency-planning.blogspot.com

Ishinomaki, Japan