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Energy efficiency in buildings: Large possible benefits, but not easy to realize!

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Wuppertal Institute

Presentation at the Breakfast Seminar,

Akademiska Hus Gothenburg, 19th November, 2015

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Wuppertal Institute

• Scaling up: Global cooperation and knowledge transfer needed • Avoid „lock in effects“ of moderate energy efficiency standards • Demonstrate the co-benefits and economic opportunities of deep renovation

• Make efficient buildings greener and green buildings more efficient

• Remove barriers by using country specific policy packages

• Step forward to sustainable city and neighborhood development

• Consider the social context (e.g.rebound, lifestyle) of the built environment!

Key messages

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 23.11.2015

Global challenges and opportunities

This will only happen, if innovative policies and measures are used Because: the sector has complex structures and lots of barriers

Knowledge exists but is not easily available („closing the knowledge gap“) In particular: for emerging economies and developing countries

Global knowledge and implementation gap has to be closed

Buildings have to contribute with 38% to CO2 reduction in 2050

Source: IEA 2008

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bigEE.net: A global knowledge management platform!

23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Global energy consumption in 2050 for cooling and heating Huge gap between State of the Art and BAU

World Final Energy for Thermal Comfort: State of the Art vs. Suboptimal Scenarios (BAU)

Source: GEA 2012

Large „lock-in“-effects of moderate efficiency strategies End use energy for heat and cooling in China and India (Source: Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2012)

China India

China India

The benefits of deep renovation In principle: Energy cost savings are much higher than investment costs

Source:GBPN, Monetary benefits of ambitious buildings energy policies, 2015

EUP endorses a long-term 80%-reduction target - but to speed and scale up needs a longterm renovation strategy

The European Parliament’s Report on the Energy Roadmap 2050 ...calls for a reduction in the energy consumption of the existing building stock “by 80% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels“.

Press Release „Renovate Europe“, 14th May 2013

Required increase in renovation depth for 80% C02 saving in EU27

Source: BPIE 2011

Consider the Life Cycle Processes of Buildings Integrate resource and energy efficiency strategies

Buildings and the “Circular Economy” still a long way to a “resource efficient” and “green” economy

Case study USA:

Only 26% of construction and demolition (C&D) is

recycled or reused!

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Integrated energy policies for green and efficient buildings

Source: Shrestha 2015,; based on IEA/ UNEP 2013

Efficient buildings and the German Energiewende

“Revolutionary Targets” (Chancellor Merkel) Energy Concept, Federal German Government, 28 September 2010

; Reduktion Wärmeverbrauch

-80% ; reduction

Source: Samadi 2011, based on data from AG Energiebilanzen 2011 and scenario studies cited

Primary energy in Germany in 2010 and in 2050 according to typical energy scenarios

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Actual

WWF - Innovation w/o CCS

WWF - Innovation w. CCS

Greenpeace - Plan B

BMU - Base Scenario 2010 A

EnBW et al - Scenario 3

BMWi - Scenario II B

2010

2050

PJ

Nuclear energy Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Renewables Others

ca. 70%

27%

31%

11%

47%

ca.50%

energy efficiency

renewable energy

Research consensus: “Energiewende” technically feasible Decoupling and reducing energy import dependency (2012: import costs 105 bn€)

Share of imported energy

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 23.11.2015

Quelle: Nitsch 2014

Heat production in a German 100% REG-Scenario Power to heat, biomass and solarthermal take the lead.

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Quelle: Nitsch 2014

Power production and application up to 2060 (100% REG) Strong increase of PtG (e.g. hydrogen) and PtH (e.g.heat pumps) after 2030

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

State of the art: Buildings used as power plants „Plus-Energy“ houses in Freiburg/Germany

„Effizienzhaus Plus“ in Berlin with electric mobility Heated building area: 149 m² Excess power: 9.633 kWh/a (Source: BMVBS)

„Generation5.0 WeberHaus“ in Cologne-Frechen Heated building area: 237,3 m² Excess power: 2.064 kWh/a (Source: WeberHaus GmbH & Co. KG)

„Green[r]evolution HUF HAUS“ in Cologne Heated building area: 311,1 m² Excess power: 4.718 kWh/a (Source: HUF Haus GmbH & Co. KG)

„Netto-Plusenergiegebäude“ in Leonberg Heated building area: 595 m² Excess power: 11.054 kWh/a (Source: Prof. Dr.-Ing. M. Norbert Fisch)

Examples for „Efficiency Houses Plus“ in Germany

Turning old existing multi-family buildings into „Efficiency Houses Plus“ (Conceptual design)

Design: University Mühlheim Design: Technical University Darmstad Architect: Werner Sobek Architect: 05 architekten bda Concept: High efficient insulation including Concept: Integrating buildings technology prefabricated buildings technology into the atic; using daylighting and eco-balance Note: Both multi-family houses had to be retrofitted using before 507 kWh/qm/a. The energy Surplus in the future will be produced by PV

Source: Erhorn / Erhorn-Kluttig 2009

Development of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) Case study: new buildings in Germany

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Pilot Project: Passive house standard for deep renovation

High subsidies for retrofitting buildings are necessary - but the macroeconomic multiplier and self-financing effects are promising!

Policy packages

There is no silver bullet to foster efficient buildings: Policy packages are needed adaped to climate zone and development stage

Governance framework for energy efficiency

Specific policies and measures for energy efficiency in new buildings

Energy efficiency targets & planning

Energy efficiency infrastructure & funding Eliminating distortions

Regulation Information Incentives & financing

Capacity building & networking

Promotion of energy services

RD & and BAT promotion

POLICY PACKAGE for

ENERGY EFFICIENCY in BUILDINGS

Complex governance structure for energy efficiency Germany: More than 100 P&M – but coordinating unit is missing

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Key instruments acoording to the German NAPE

National Agency for Energy Efficiency + Savings Fund A proposal for a new “ policentric governance“ of energy efficiency policies

23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Regional efficiency initiative: ProKlima Fund in Hanover A unique success story in the EU; transferable to each city

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Hannover and the involved municipalities

Activities Founded in 1998

49 million € support for CHP, passivhouses,

energy saving projects, solar and biogas

1 € fund incentive mobilizes 12 € private Investment

1000 job secured Comparable project discussed in Wuppertal Düsseldorf

Financing Ca. 5 million € per year out of 3 sources: Ca. 40% form utility profits Ca. 40% fee (0.2 cts/kWh on sales) Ca .20% by the other municipalities

Source: Wuppertal Institute, 2014

ESCOS and the building sector

A snap shot of the ESCO market in Germany 500 ESCOS, market size €3.5-6 billion/a (mostly Energy Supply Contracting (ESC)

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Source: Bertoldi et al, 2013

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Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Good practice: Energy Savings Partnership Berlin: Retrofit pools of public buildings by private Energy Perfomance Contracting

Retrofitting 1300 public buildings ESCOs tendering on special pools of buildings

About €49 million private investments - Reduce public energy budget by €2.7 million („guaranteed budgetary savings“)

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Objective • Testing „Citizen´s Capital“ concept; • Combination of energy savings with solar

energy

Approach • Four pilot projects (Engelskirchen,

Emmerich, Köln, Gelsenkirchen) • Limited coop. with citizen‘s capital; • contracts with municipalities (14-20 a):

Payback from saved energy costs and guaranteed feed-in tariff

Results • Total investment ca 3 Mio. Euros; • Shared Savings: Investors, schools,

municipalities (target IRR 5 to 6 %); • So far: results better than planned!

Profits from combined efficiency and renewables „Solar&Save“ citizens capital projects in pilot schools in North Rhine-Westphalia

Decentralized renewables: Role of municipalities and citizen finance

Renewable energies of the Energiewende Strong economic benefits for municipalities

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Increasing decentralized options in rural areas 100%-Renewable-Energy-Regions in Germany

• Political decision towards 100% renewable energy in more than 100 cities or regions

• Aim: Complete change towards renewable energy as well as reducing energy use

• Using regional sustainable energy sources to create regional welfare (income effects)

• Main barriers: co-ordination, local acceptance, lack of funds

• Innovative financing (citizen companies, cooperatives, local funds)

12%

88%

Area 8%

92%

Popul.

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 23.11.2015

23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

973 (12/2014)

Ownership of installed renewable power capacities in Germany 2010

Source: Greenpeace International 2013

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

23.11.2015

• founded in 2000 as a limited company of 20 citizens

• target: 100% renewables in the region „Hegau“ at the Bodensee up to 2030

• Activities: Solar PV, biogas/district heating, hydro, bio-energy villages

• financed only by citizens capital

• political frame conditions: German Renewable Resources Law („feed in law“)

• today ca. 1000 active members (e.g. SMEs, Utilities, Citizens as share holder)

Regional good practice: Solarcomplex AG „Citizens contracting“ to supply 100% renewables in 2030

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Challenges for the business model of utilities - The confrontation with overlapping new types of costumers

Source: Eurolectric 2013

23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

The split of E.ON : „A matter of survival“. FR 12.3.2015: „Tottering giants. Billons of losses for RWE and E.ON“!

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Germany: Comparison of costs of new nuclear power plants with PV and wind and the levelized costs of gas/coal (incl.CCS)

Source: Agora/ Prognos 2014

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Citizens/stakeholder participation is key

• 95% of German hard coal mining; 53% of lignite mining

• about 1.1 Mio. million employees in the energy sector • nearly 1/3 of the German electricity production 70%

coal-based, 90% fossil • 35% of German CO2-emissions (~300 Mio. ta) • about. 50% of German energy intensive industries • Per capita emissions: 16 t CO2/year Goal: Reduction of C02 by 25% (2020); 80% (2050)

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) plays a crucial role: If NRW does not succeed, it is unlikely that Germany/Europe will reach the C02-reduction targets Good practice for stake holder participation on developing binding climate protection targets 2 years duration, 400 stakeholders form all groups participated + scenario based dialogue

North Rhine-Westphalia – The German “Energy State” How to develop a Climate Plan with binding targets and broad participation?

Consens building by conducting a scenario based dialogue to consider different stakeholder perspectives and conflicting views

23.11.2015

Source: Wuppertal Institute 2014, Prognos 2014

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Mitigation scenarios Baseline Scenarios A A1 A2 B B1 B2 BCCS C C1 C2 0,6 0,8 Electricity production Development renewables low high high 100%* low high low 100%* very low very low

Demand for electricity** constant constant decreasing constant slightly decreasing

Industry Growth 1,2% 1,2% 0,6% 0,6% 1,2%

Technology Best available technology Low carbon technology Low carbon technology cost-efficent available

technolgy

Usage of H2 in PJ 2050 - 140 280 140 200 280 - - Buildings Reconstruction rate 1,4% 0,7% 1,4% 2,0% 1,4% 2,0% 2,0% 0,7%

Mitigation of GHG-Emission in NRW***

1990-2020 (Target -25%) -21% -20% -25% -26% -26% -27% -22% -29% -24% -29% -21% -16% 1990-2050 (Target -80%) -57% -57% -60% -65% -64% -79% -67% -69% -68% -82% -51% -40%

* 100% of electricity production from renewables ** electricity demand are scenario results *** domestic mitigation in North Rhine-Westfalia excluding emission trading

46

A city good practice example in NRW: Innovation City Bottrop climate mitigation + improved quality of life + participation (citizens, industry)

Living Working Energy Mobility

City

Climate Protection

Quality of Life

CO2-savings of 50% in 10 years

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Innovation City Bottrop started with 20.000 signatures by citizens in four weeks (ca. 1/3 of inhabitions of pilot area)

Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Bottrop: A role model of sustainable city development Extract List of Projects

PLUS-ENERGY-Model Houses: Detached House Apartment Building Commercial Building Social Housing

Rheinbaben district

Manual Consultation Process Rheinbaben

Living at Ehrenpark

Living at Trapez

Retrofitting of Companies

Regenerative Energy

Electric Mobility

Urban Development

Retrofitting of Residential Areas

Hochschule Ruhr West

Low Energy Gas-Station

Welding with Solar Power

Industrial Estates Knippenburg/ Kruppwald

Energy Supply Welheimer Mark

Climate Neutral Retail Sale

CHP Pilot Project

Application of 10 Mini-CHP

Dual Demand Side Management

Smart Grid

Warmth on Wheels

Mine Water Heat

Use of Process Heat of the Coking Plant

Masterplan Hydrogen

E –Mobility in the context of energetic district retrofitting

Electric Public Transport

E-Vehicles

E-Trucks

Rental System

City Compatible Truck Routing

Car-Sharing

Exchange of Charging Station at Main Station

Masterplan InnovationCity Ruhr

Integrated Urban Development Welheimer Mark

Photovoltaics Noise Barrier at A 42 Highway

LED-Street Lighting

Rain Water Management at BEST Area

Cultivation of Facade Surfaces

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Bottrop: Information, motivation, citizen participation Retrofit rate exceeds German average by a factor of 7!

8.995 House-by-House-Consultations =

89% of all Property Owners

1.300 Single Consultations = 13% of all Property Pwners

978 Buildings retrofitted = 7,82 % of all Residential Buildings

October 2011 to November 2013

27 Theme Evenings with 2.000 Participants ( Heating, Insulation, Solar, Financing, etc.)

InnovationCity Day with 500 Participants (Information, Motivation)

Public Workshops in 5 Quarters (> 300 Proposals)

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Industry involvement: demonstration projects

Demonstration Project The Energy Campus Lab

Solar Panels

Photovoltaics Sorption Based Air Condition Parabolic Heliostats

Fresnel- and Parabolic Collectors

Facade Panels

Waste Water Heat Recovery

District Heating

Concrete Core

Temperature Control

CHP Storage

Electric Mobility

Heat Recovery Server Room

Insulation

- Lab, Think Tank, and Partner of InnovationCity Ruhr - Partners: Gelsenwasser, Steag – Fernwärme - Investment: 34 Mio.€

(PCM: Phase Change Material)

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Demonstration Project: 100 CHP-Facilities

DVGW-Innovationsoffensive

GWI Model House

CHP: Stirling- / Otto Engine / Fuel Cell

Quarter of Bottrop

Lab Field Test

Manufacturers

Blueprint - from Micro to Macro Level

Monitoring and Transfer

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„Future House“ for low income families Demonstrationproject of the municipal buldings company

Social Housing as „Plus Energy Building“ Six Tenants Unique in Germany Scientific Evaluation by HRW Bottrop

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Is efficient sufficient? Lifestyle changes matter!

“Comfort eats up efficiency” in European buildings

Trends in EU Housing Efficiency, 1990-2004

Source: Is efficient sufficient? ECEEE 2010

total

specific

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„Life style eats up efficiency“ „Sometimes...average power use per new TV...even exceeded where it had been in the 1940s area of CRTs and vacuum

tubes“ (C.Calwell, 2010, S.21)

23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Combine efficiency and sufficiency policies - to reduce rebound effects and encourage life style changes!

„The older I get the more I like regulation“

(Eoin Lees, Former Head of Energy Savings Trust/ UK)

System adjustments

Direct: Binding energy saving targets (EU 2011/2012) Energy efficiency obligations for utilities (EU ESD 2012) Reduction of subsidies and internalizing ext. cost of nuclear/fossil fuels Caps, e.g. dynamic standards for fleet consumption of cars (EU) Bonus/malus regulations e.g. for cars („feebates“) More ambitious targets for EU ETS Progressive standards (e.g. ICT) Ecotax

Indirect: Structural change to less resource intensive sectors (i.e. services) Promotion of renewable energy in coordination with energy efficiency “ProgRress” (German Program Ressource Effciency)

Behavioral change Sustainable consumption, promotion of common goods, education… Reducing societal disparities ( e.g. income, wealth, access)…

Thank you for your attention!

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