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Engineering Sustainable Energy Systems
The Green Islands case study
Carlos A. Santos SilvaMIT-Portugal Program / Sustainable Energy Systems
Instituto Superior Técnico
São Miguel, Azores
Lagoa Sete Cidades, São Miguel
São Miguel
Area 759 km2 (32%)
Population 150 000 (60%)
The energy system in São Miguel(… as perceived by the Azores local agents)
Fuel oil53%
Hydro5%
Geothermal41%
Electricity Production
Annual growth rate1995-2005 2005-2007
7% 4% São
Mig
uel
Energy Strategy for 2018
• Goals for all Azores– 75% of renewables on electricity production– 40% of renewables on primary energy (electrification of other sectors)
• Plan (for São Miguel)– 3MW Geothermal by 2010– 9MW Wind by 2011– 10MW Geothermal by 2013
• Questions– Another 10 MW Geothermal after 2013?– Storage system?– How to use biomass?– Is this enough? What else?
Green Islands Project
The energy system in São Miguel(… the real system in 2007)
47%
27%
Strategy for 2018
MIT PortugalLocal Agents
Green Islands Project
Engineering a Sustainable Energy System
– Technical dimension• Storage / Smart Grids/ Electric Vehicles / Biomass
– Economic dimension• EU or PPP / Energy markets
– Social dimension• Acceptance / Behavior Changes / Education / Collective welfare
– Critical Infrastructures• Energy /Transportation /Communication
– Energy and Sustainability• Safety /Security
– Fundamentals• Complexity, Uncertainty…
Tools for Energy Planning
Social
EconomicEnvironment(Technological)
Homer
DER-CAM
RETScreen
TRNSYS
TIMESLEAP
ENPEP
MAED
MESSAGE
Green-XEPPA
Planning tools gaps
Hour Year
Region /Country
House /Neighborhood
Homer
TIMES
LEAP
DER-CAM
Second
Grid Analysis
Space
Time
Green-X
EPPA
Projections
Optimization
Methodology
New generation of planning tools
Social
EconomicEnvironmentExtended TIMES
Hour Year
Region /Country
House /Neighborhood
Second
Space
Time
Projections
Optimization
Methodology
TIMES
Model Calibration (2008)
Green Islands Case: TIMES-MARKAL to build scoping scenarios
• Business As Usual– 37 MW Geothermal: [ 24 + 3 + 10 ] (2013)– 5 MW Hydro– 9 MW Wind (2011)
• MPPRen (+ Renewables & Storage)– 47 MW Geothermal: [ 24 + 3 + 10 ] +10 (2013)– 9 MW Hydro [5+4]– 9 MW Wind (2011)– 10 MW Biomass (2013)– 15 MW Pump-Storage (2013)
• MPPRenDom (+ Household Efficiency)– Energy Efficiency Gains from New Appliances– Electricity Demand Growth 2%
• MPPRenAll (+ Lower demand growth)– Non-Electric/Non-Transportation Demand Growth 1%
• MPPRenAllEV (+ Introduction of Electric Vehicles)– 6% of Electric Vehicles in 2013, 30% in 2020
GW
h
Curr
ent
BAU
MPP
Ren
MPP
RenD
om
MPP
RenA
ll
MPP
RenA
llEV
BAU
MPP
Ren
MPP
RenD
om
MPP
RenA
ll
MPP
RenA
llEV
2007 2013 2018
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BiomassWindHydroGeothermalFuel
Electricity Production Scenarios
Curr
ent
BAU
MPP
Ren
MPP
RenD
om
MPP
RenA
ll
MPP
RenA
llEV
BAU
MPP
Ren
MPP
RenD
om
MPP
RenA
ll
MPP
RenA
llEV
2007 2013 2018
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BiomassWindHydroGeothermalFuel
Electricity Scenario for 2018
• Two critical ideas– Reduce energy demand (e.g. energy efficiency in buildings)– Introduce storage systems (e.g. pump-storage or EV)
Storage
Energy Demand
Primary Energy
Curr
ent
BAU
MPP
Ren
MPP
RenD
om
MPP
RenA
ll
MPP
RenA
llEV
BAU
MPP
Ren
MPP
RenD
om
MPP
RenA
ll
MPP
RenA
llEV
2007 2013 2018
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
RenewablesGasolineAsphaltButaneDieselFuel
• One critical idea:– Change transportation system (e.g. EV)
Conclusions
• Engineering a Sustainable Energy System requires– Research:
• Extend modeling and planning tools to include all dynamics
– Implementation:• Energy efficiency (e.g. reduce energy demand in buildings)• Change transportation paradigm (e.g. electrical vehicles)
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