erik melander's presentation - oecd - pgd expert meeting

Armed Conflict and Forced Migration Flows

Erik MelanderProfessor of Peace and Conflict Research

Deputy Director of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Armed Conflict and Migration Flows: Two issues

• How much conflict (number of conflicts and intensity)?

• How large migration flows per conflict (the size of the migration flow depends on the type of conflict)?

Armed Conflicts of the World, 2013

Number of Battle Deaths, 1946-2013

Average Migration Flows in Intrastate Armed Conflict, 1979-2008

50

100

150

200

250

Ave

rag

e F

orc

ed

Dis

pla

ce

men

t F

low

in

Tho

usa

nd

s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

Displaced Fitted values

Adapted from: Melander, Erik; Magnus Öberg & Jonathan Hall, 2009. 'Are 'New Wars' More Atrocious? Battle Intensity, Civilians Killed and Forced Migration Before and After the End of the Cold War', European Journal of International Relations, 15(3):505-536.

Georeferenced Eventdata

Observed and Simulated Proportion of Countries in Armed Conflict, 1960-2050.

Source: Hegre et al. (2013), p 216.

Following the War on Terror and the Arab Spring

• Onsets of armed conflict in relatively developed countries: Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Syria (Bahrain), Ukraine.

• Particularly atrocious wars: Iraq, Syria.

• More in line with the model: Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia.

Norms of tolerance of difference and treatment of weaker groups• The fundamental template in all societies (and

all families): discrimination of women.• Linked to ideals of masculinity that promote

violence as a means of dealing with conflict and domination of weaker groups.

• Measures of gender inequality predict armed conflict and human rights violations.

• Many studies published in major peer-reviwed journals (ask me if you are interested).

Not taking into account these norms

• Underestimating risks in North Africa and the Middle East.

• Examples of countries missing from the list of most conflict-prone: Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc.

• Overestimating somewhat the risks in highly developed but populous countries in East Asia and Latin America.

• Underestimating how many refugees are generated per conflict?