evolution of mobile handsets and the impact of smartphones
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Evolution of Mobile Handsets and
the Impact of Smartphones
February 2012
Yoko Miyashita
InfoCom Research, Inc.
Lecture Document
Today’s Lecture Outline
Mobile handset history outlook:
Handsets have changing dramatically especially in this decade.
What are the future phones like???
Industry structure is changing after the growing smartphone
populality
Handset development trend is also changing with the smartphone
2
Feature Phone vs. Smartphone
Smartphone? OR Feature phone?
3
Mobile Handset Market Overview
4
Global Mobile Subscriber Number & Penetration History
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
(in million)
Subscriber Number
Net increase
Penetration Rate
Subsc
ribers
Penetra
tion
12/200512/200012/1995
Source: US Census Bureau, Informa and 4G Americas. As of September, 2011
12/2010
► 5.4 billion mobile phone subscribers and 77% of mobile penetration, globally
5
2,624
859
121
328
569 531 511 538
287
69.6%64.4%
95.2% 95.3%
96.1%
129.3% 127.0%
53.1%
89.8%
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,800
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
アジア太平洋 (中国) (日本) 北米 中南米 西欧 東欧 アフリカ 中東
MILLION
携帯電話加入者数 普及率
携帯電話加入者数
普及率
Mobile Subscriber and Penetration Rate by Region
※Source: Informa and US Cencer Bureau
■ As of December2010
Asia
Pacific
China Japan North
America
South
America
West
Europe
East
EuropeAfrica Middle
East
Su
bs
crib
er
Pen
etra
tion
Subscriber
Penetration
6
GSM77.0%
UMTS12.6%
CDMA9.5%
その他0.9%
Subscriber Number by Technology
Data: As of March 2011
Technology based subscriber share: Global
※Source: 4G Americas
Technology Subscriber Market share
GSM 4,300 77.0%
UMTS(W-CDMA)-HSPA 692 12.6%
CDMA 521 9.5%
Others(Analog、iDEN、PDC、TD-SCDMA、TDMA)
46 0.9%
【Unit: Million】
Others
7
Handset Market Structure
High-end/
Smartphone
Middle range
Low End
including ultra low end
One of the best selling phone in historyMarket Structure
Price range and its volume
←Price:$ 800~
←Price:$ 20-50
• Low end
• Black-white display
• 86 gram
• SMS
• Color variation
• Target: emergingmarket
※NO InternetNO Camera
Nokia 1100
←Price:$ 300~
8
ZTE5.5%
RIM3.5%
Huawei3.9%
Apple5.7%
LG6.9%
Samsung20.7%
HTC3.3%
Motorola3.0%
Nokia24.7%Others
22.9%
Mobile Handset Share by Vendor
Source: Strategy Analytics
VendorShipment
(Million)
Market
Share
Nokia 88.5 24.7%
Samsung 74.0 20.7%
LG 24.8 6.9%
Apple 20.3 5.7%
ZTE 19.6 5.5%
Huawei 13.9 3.9%
RIM 12.5 3.5%
HTC 11.9 3.3%
Motorola 10.6 3.0%
Others 81.9 22.8%
Total 358.0 100.0%
Mobile Handset Shipment Based Vender Share 【2011.2Q(April to June)】
9
Evolution of Mobile Handset
10
Evolution of the Cell Phone
Miniaturize Functionalize, Thin/High Speedmail, camera, data internet cloud
Motorola
DynaTAC
Approx. 1kg
Nokia 1011
495g Motorola
StarTAC
88g
Sony Ericsson
P800
smartphone
158g
RIM
BlackBerry Quark 6210
smartphone
136g
Apple
iPhone 3G
smartphone
140g
1983 1990 2000 2007
1st generation 2ndgeneration 3rd generation
11
Characteristic of the 1st Generation
Period: From 1980s to 2000
Analog based mobile network
No data communication, only SMS
Heavy and bulky handset
Extremely expensive, starting from $1,000
“Miniaturize” is the most important for development
Targeted only for the business and for special segment
12
Mobile Handset History: 1st Generation
1983 1993 1996 1999
Handset Trend Transition
Source: GigaOM and Newgrounds.com 13
Characteristic of the 2nd Generation
Period: From appx. 2000 to 2007
Mobile phone for the mass people
Relatively slow data connection/ Internet usage by phone
Golden time for handset vendors: handset vendors were the most influential and powerful
Various kinds of handsets
Handset development environment is relatively closed
14
Mobile Handset History: 2 nd Generation
Hig
h E
nd
Lo
w E
nd
Handset Design Trend Transition
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Nokia 3310:
133g Nokia 1100:
86g
Nokia 6310:111g*with Ultra Slimbattery
Nokia 3410:
114g
NEC L1:11.9mm *
Motorola V60:
109g
Motorola
V70:83g
MotorolaV600:115g*
*Camera、 ★ Touch display
Panasonic A100:
66g:
SamsungSPH-V9900:6.9mm *
Smaller Multimedia Design/ Thinner
VK Mobile:48g:
SamsungU100:5.9mm *
LGChocolate:
15.2 mm*
Motorola RAZR v3:13.9mm*
LGPRADA phone:12mm*★
SamsungP520 :8.9mm *★
SharpGX10:110g*
2nd Generation: Handset vendors have the strongest power
15
Reference ①: Unique Feature phones
← Xelibri 5•74 gram
•139Euro
Xelibri 7 →•83グラム
•価格:179ユーロ(約23,800円)
Xelibri 8 →•Neck less Type
•NO button(Voice Recognition)
•179Euro
“Xelibri“ by Simens, was one of the most unique series of handset…
Commercial Image
← Xelibri 6•Compact type
•90 gram
•179 Euro
16
LG F7100 Qiblah
◆“Phone for Muslim Community”
Reference ②: Unique Feature phones
“Qiblah“ by LG Electronics, was one of the best selling feature phones by LG for Islamic people
▸ Points the direction of MECCA(With the Compass function)
▸ Make alerts 5 times a day to pray
▸ Arabic language
▸ SMS/MMS capability
▸ LG’s best selling feature phone* LG’s s strategy to carter for the specific needs of the Muslim people
Weight
Display
Talking
time
Waiting
hour
Technology
Release date:July, 2004
89g
LCD65K Color
GSM900/1800/GPRS
210 mim
200 hour
17
Characteristic of the 3rd Generation
Period: appx. 2007 ~
Smartphone era
Higher speed network
More internet connection
Many new entrants to mobile handset industry, such as Google and Apple
Industry structure revolution
18
Sony Ericsson「XPERIA X1」
Nokia「N96」
LG「KF-700」
Almost all the high-end handset “look alike” after iPhone
Year 2007: “iPhone” released
Mobile Handset History: 23rd Generation
Beginning of Smartphone Era with iPhone
19
Industry Definition of “Smartphone”
Open Operation System(OS)
Specification is disclosed to the third party
Broad application development environment
Mobile network capabilitye.g. Not Wi-Fi only handset
Apple: iOS、Google; Android、RIM: BlackBerry、Nokia: Symbian、Microsoft: Windows Phone(Windows Mobile)and Linux
What is Smartphone?
Smartphone?
20
Smartphone Market Projection
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
2015
21.4%
78.6%
41.0%
59.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
2015
2015年2010年
11.1%
88.9%
49.7%
50.3%
Global
Japan
【Unit: Million】
【単位:100万】
Data: Strategy Analytics, MCPC
Smartphone Not Smartphone
【西暦(年)】
21
Smartphone Industry Structure
Smartphone has its own ecosystem
Smartphone OS providers have strong power.
“Vertical integration structure”: Smartphone OS provider controls the service,
application and even handsets.
Service
Network
Application
OS/Platform
Handset
Smartphone
Market share
(Email, Search, Maps…)
*Smartphone market share: Top line: 2011.2Q, bottom: 20102Q22
Smartphone OS based handset market share
2010.2Q to 2011.2Q 2011.2Q
►Android and iPhone OS are becoming two most powerful players
►Nokia’s Symbian losing much market share
※Source:Strategy Analytics 23
Data Traffic Explosion caused by Smartphone
Source:”AT&T + T-Mobile: A World-Class Platform for the Future of Mobile Broadband”, AT&T, March 21, 2011.http://www.att.com/Common/about_us/pdf/INV_PRES_3-21-11_FINAL.pdf
AT&T’s iPhone brought huge revenue with the dramatically growing trafficHowever, the carriers worry to become “Dumb Pipe” only providing the network.
24
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
Sauce:Ciscohttp://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.htmlhttp://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
25
Smartphone Application Store
•”Application Store” is the place to provides third party developed
application and contents
•It makes the mobile industry even much more global
App Store by App;e Android Market by Google
26
Variation of Android Smartphone
27
Mobile Handset Vendor Profit
501
2,286
11,381
754
971
820
-1,091
2,225
-10004000
9000
Apple
Samsung
Nokia
HTC
RIM
LG
Motorola
SonyEricsson
Year 2007
【In million US dollars】
9,356
3,779
4,710
1,446
2,718
-607
-198
227
-1,0004,000
9,000
Apple
Samsung
Nokia
HTC
RIM
LG
Motorola
SonyEricsson
Year 2010
【In million US dollars】
Source:Strategy Analytics. Exchange rate as of August 2011 for both charts28
Analysis of the Mobile Phone Evolution
~ What are the futures phone like?
29
SmartphonesFeature PhonesBasic Phones
What the Future Mobile Handset Be Like?
Analog
1st Generation
Voice, SMS only
Network
Handset
Category
Function
Handset itself getting more intelligent
Digital
2nd Generation
Multimedia
capability
W-CDMA(UMTS)
3rd Generation
Application, PC
like function•Cloud computing,•handset commoditization…
?
4G/ LTE
Cloud computing
Next Generation
Extremely
limited
Data/
Internet Limited
More internet use, congested
Getting huge
No device intelligence
Low device intelligence
High device intelligence What do you
think???
30
Half of the mobile handset will be smartphone in 2015
Mobile handsets will be more commoditized and hard to differentiate the terminal itself
Mobile network will be getting much faster
More players flooding into mobile industry, such as internet company, SNS, and so on…
The 4th Generation Handset Factor
31
What are the future mobile phones and
services be like???
InfoCom Research, Inc.
Yoko MiyashitaChief Consultant
www.icr.co.jp
Email: miyashita-y@icr.co.jp
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