flacso mn kn singularity pp 18 june 07

Welcome to the Singularity

Arthur HarkinsJohn Moravec

Innovation Studies& CIDE

Two Singularity Pioneers

Victor Vinge, college professor and science fiction writer

Ray Kurzweil, National Technology Award Medal winner (1999) and author of The Singularity is Near

What is the Singularity all about?

Multiple interfaced technologies. IA, AI, nanotech, molecular biology, robotics,

advanced bandwidth compression, & VR. As the Singularity approaches, things go faster. Even moving slowly, a subjective year could go

by in about 30 seconds. That would give a college degree a 15 second

half-life.

Speed is driven by interfaced tech

“The original Moore's Law says that the number of transistors in a given area of silicon doubles every eighteen months. Today there is Moore's Law for chip speeds, Moore's Law for computer memory, Moore's Law for disk storage per dollar, Moore's Law for Internet connectivity, and a dozen other variants.”

(Singularity Institute 2005)

How will we feel the change?

“…the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).”

(Kurzweil AI.net 2005)

Why is the Singularity so very important?

The Singularity will make prediction impossible, and forecasting very,

very difficult. It also drives the knowledge and innovation industries.

Why is the Singularity so important?

The Singularity could signal the advent of a new form of life.

Why is the Singularity so important?

Conceivably, this life could replace Homo Sapiens.

Why is the Singularity so important?

The Singularity may force into existence its own human

resistance movement.

Why is the Singularity so important?

The resistance movement may try to slow or shut down the

Singularity.

Who/what could shut down the Singularity?

It is possible that a culture capable of this action already

exists - in the Middle East

Is there a calendrical table?

“…the hardware capacity for human-equivalent artificial intelligence will likely exist before the end of the first quarter of the next century, and may be reached as early as 2004.”

(Nick Bostrom, Ph.D., London School of Economics, 1997) [A bit too eager…]

Is there a time table?

Kurzweil forecasts the Singularity within about 30 years.

The effects are already beginning to appear.

The effects should be quite noticeable within 5-10 years.

Many people will likely not be happy.

How likely is the Singularity?

Very, since someone will probably bring it about even if almost no one assists.

Not very, since the “Meat People” will stop or kill other “Meat People” before they can trigger the Singularity.

But the Singularity is probably already triggered.

Is religion a source of control over the Singularity?

Of course, if it’s Jesuit, Jewish, Buddhist, Episcopalian, Unitarian, Shintoist, Confucian, Taoist, or Hubbardian.

But such religions are not evenly distributed across or within societies.

How will the Protestant Red States respond? The Muslim sects?

Transhuman-level impacts

We are already implanting chips for various purposes, including hearing repair, organ management (for the heart, most prominently), and for subsystem monitoring.

Logical extrapolations of chip implants are not certain, but do suggest that cyborgs are becoming commonplace.

Posthuman-level impacts

Are we going to become bots? Are we going to become electromagnetic,

virtually weightless, and capable of cheap and easy light speed travel?

Or are we going to become Borgs in hive societies?

When the “Meat People” meet the “Hardware People”

The “Meat People” may feel pressed. The “Hardware People” may feel nothing. The “Meat People” will try to enslave the

“Hardware People”. Will the “Hardware People” want to vote? Will they want to marry “Meat People?”

Have you noticed how ST New Generation handled AI?

They stuck to the human/humanity theme. They made Data alternately a savant and

a village idiot. They caused Data to fail when he tried to

create a child. They made Data’s brother a sociopath. They made the Borg….

Have you noticed how Spielberg handled AI?

He made the little AI boy a misfit. He made other mechs into “Negro”

inferiors or sexual appliances. He created an end to human life, as

studied by alien AIs. He sent a clear warning not to trust AIs.

Have you noticed how Lucas handled this matter?

He made the Bad Cyborg, Darth Vader. He made C3PO a “Negro” inferior. He created a threat to mech life in

symbolic battles with outnumbered humans and their “good” aliens.

He sent a clear warning about Asia.

Have you noticed how others handled this matter?

Mary Shelley created Frankenstein’s monster. Karel Capek created slave bots with rebellion in

their plans. Arthur C. Clarke created HAL. Ridley Scott created Ashe, the murderous droid Arnold created the Terminator. And don’t forget the ambiguously dangerous

Iron Giant.

In the context of personal knowledge production and innovation, how will each of us handle all of this?