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CMR
FlexPO2014
Shanghai
October 24, 2014
1
GLOBAL PLASTOMERS & ELASTOMERSMARKETS & TRENDS
2014-2020October 24, 2014
Mr. Pranav Bhupathi
FlexPO - 2014
CHEMICAL MARKET RESOURCES, INC.1560 West Bay Area Blvd., Suite 195, Friendswood, TX 77546, USA
Tel. (281)-557-3320, www.CMRHouTex.com
CMR
FlexPO2014
Shanghai
October 24, 2014
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Introduction
mPOP and mPOE are essentially the same product differentiated mainly by theirapplication and density Elastomers: Elastomers are those ethylene-based, metallocene-catalyzed polymers
having densities less than 0.885 g/cm3. They are used in (1) polymer modification, especially TPOs, (2) wire & cable, (3) foams, and other applications.
Plastomers: Plastomers are ethylene-based polymers with densities between 0.885 g/cm3 and LLDPEs. They are used primarily in film applications for (1) food packaging, (2) non-food packaging, and (3) stretch film.
Metallocene elastomers and plastomers, since their introduction in the early 90swhen consumption was concentrated primarily in the developed Western world,have only recently proliferated in usage on a global scale
These metallocene resins, which were originally positioned as a replacement formost commodity polyethylenes ultimately settled for being “Value AddedDifferentiated Commodities”
The last decade has witnessed a strong spurt in demand in developing marketsin Asia, along with new producers developing proprietary technologies to boostsupply in this market.
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FlexPO2014
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October 24, 2014
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Highlights of Metallocene PE Development
1991 Exxon commercialized Exxpol 1991 – Exact® 1993 Dow commercialized Insite® – Affinity® and
Engage® Chevron Phillips, Total, developed their metallocenes 1997(circa) Dow started Elite® m-LLDPE and Exxon
started Exceed® m-LLDPE. Metallocenes, originally positioned as a replacement for
most commodity PEs ultimately settled to being “Value Added Differentiated Commodities”
Post metallocene era: single site catalyst, late transition metal catalyst;
The Z-N System is still active and provides lots of alternatives
Advanced ZN products offering similar performance to mPEs have also been developed – Nova & Westlake
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Current Polyolefinic Product Positioning
HDPE
LLDPE
Z/N PlastmPOP/
POE
EP(D)M
hPP
RCP
ICP
mPOP/POE
100% C2 100% C3
Comonomer Increasing
Modulus
LDPESolution Platform &
metallocene technology is the key
Three Key Issues:
1) Reactor, 2) Catalyst, 3) Ability to handle amorphous material
Business of Olefin Polymerization
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Plastomers & Elastomers Applications
EP(D)M
EB mPOP/POE
PB mPOP/POE
EXACT®AFFINITY®ENGAGE®TAFMER®
VISTAMAXX®VERSIFY®TAFMER®
VISTALON®NORDELL®TAFMER®OTHERS
Impact modification of PPAutomotive interior &
exterior applicationsAppliance marketsMost TPO markets except
Soft TPOs
Automotive interiorSingle Ply RoofingConsumption in TPVsOther impact modification
applications
Cling layer in stretch filmsImpact modification of PP in
Automotive interiorImpact modification for
Household containers
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FlexPO2014
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Metallocene based Ethylene Polymers & Copolymers Have Been Most Important!
Over 90% of the metallocene based products consumed globally include Ethylene Based polymers & copolymers
mLLDPE comprises of nearly 70% of all metallocenes consumed globally
*Others include:m-HDPE/MDPE,EP Elastomers& Propylene based Plastomers/Elastomers
mLLDPE, 3,800, 71%
mPOP, 505, 9%
Others*, 350, 6%mPP, 230,
4%mPOE, 540,
10%
2014 Demand ~ 5,425 KTA
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Product Market Applications Other
Materials Used
Comments
mPOE
Polymer Modification
Automotive, soft touch handles and others
EPDM, SEBS, PVC
ethylene elastomers are able to disperse better in PP matrix exhibiting better properties.Automotive sector increasingly using TPO replacing PVC and do compete with TPU in soft applications.Better than PVC due to migration of fogging TPO has a cost advantage over EPDM with less amount used for required properties Metallocene elastomers is a cleaner product and lighter then EPDMEPDM has better oil and heat resistance then metallocene elastomers a requirement in under the hood application
Wire & Cable
For non oil resistant jacketing application.
EVA, EPDM,LDPE
Ethylene elastomers improves flexibility in LSNH(low smoke non halogen compounds)Able to add filler tolerances Improves processability to EPDM based wire and cable applicationAble to accomodat higher filler loading for halogen free applications
Advantages of m-POE/m-POPs by Market/Applications- An Overview
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Product Market Applications Other
Materials Used
Comments
mPOE
Foam Toys EVA
Able to produce lighter foams with equivalent hardnessAble to have better resilience than EVA (return to original shape)Better abrasion resistance than EVA
FootwearMid-solesOuter soles
EVA, PVC, EPDM, Natural rubber, SBS
Able to produce better consistency resinBetter reliance than EVA based solesHigher tensile and tear properties than EVALower shrinkage than EVAGood low temperature flexibility compared to PVC and lighter weightFast recycle time
Medical Applications Medical tubes PVC
able to offer flexibility and clarityProcessability Halogen free and advantage where PVC free applicaition is required
Advantages of m-POE/m-POPs by Market/Applications- An Overview
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Product Market Typical Applications
Other Materials
UsedComments
mPOP FilmsPackaging (Similar to mLLDPE)
LDPE
Metallocene plastomers have very good processasability High seal strength for pouch applicationLower density with downgauging potential
Advantages of m-POE/m-POPs by Market/Applications- An Overview
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FlexPO2014
Shanghai
October 24, 2014
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Global Market for Plastomers & Elastomers, 2014
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Market Characterization of mPOP– Growth Driver Tree Analysis, 2014
m-POP
Stretch Film
Food Packaging
Non-Food Packaging
Ice Bags
Frozen Foods
Fresh cut Produces Meat & Poultry
Others
Heavy Duty Bags & Sacks
Industrial Liners
Others
380 KTA
30 KTA
27 KTA
505 KTA 6.9 % AAGR
Cheese Pouches
HDPE Coextrudes
Wire and Cable
Polymer Modification
Others
Medical
21 KTA
30 KTA
10 KTA
8 KTA
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October 24, 2014
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Global Market for Plastomers & Elastomers, 2014
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October 24, 2014
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Market Characterization of mPOE– Growth Driver Tree Analysis, 2014
m-POE
Foam
Polymer Modification
Wire and Cable
TPE
Others
405 KTA
34 KTA
20 KTA540 KTA 6.8 % AAGR
Industrial And Construction
Footwear
Medical
Others
6 KTA
50 KTA
5 KTA
20 KTA
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Plastomers & Elastomers –Summary of Applications
Resin type Applications Competing Material
m-POP
Food Packaging EVA/LLDPE blends
Cling /Stretch Film LLDPE
Non Food Packaging Conventional LLDPE , LDPE
Polymer Modification EP(D)M, EPR
m-POE
Polymer Modification EP(D)M,EPR
Wire and Cable EP(D)M, EVA copolymers, LLDPE, and LDPE
Foam f-PVC, conventionalpolyethylene based foams
Industrial & Construction f-PVC, conventional polyethylenes
Footwear f-PVC, SBR, and TPU
Medical Applications PVC
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October 24, 2014
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Global Market Penetration of mPOEs in TPE Market -Substituting EPDM, 2000 - 2004 - 2014
EPDM84%
mPOE16%
EPDM61%
mPOE39%
EPDM37%
mPOE63%
2000
2014
2004
mPOE’s have continued to replace EPDM in TPE compoundingIn NA and EU they have almost 100% replaced EPDM in automotive bumpers
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Factors Influencing Market Penetration of Metallocenes
Following criteria influence the growth of mPEs:
Processability – Need to further improve on this viacatalyst/process modification to address customer’s needs
Cost Issue – Need to optimize cost/performance and strategizefor more market penetration
Technical Services – Need to work with the customers indeveloping high-end products
Competition from advanced ZN - Need to further developapplications beyond Adv. ZN.
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October 24, 2014
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Major Suppliers of Plastomersand Elastomers, 2014
Suppliers m-POP m-POE
Dow Chemical NA, EU NA, EU
Exxon Mobil Chemical Company (EMCC) NA,EU, SEA NA,SEA
Borealis EU -
Mitsui Chemicals - NEA, SEA
Japan Polyethylene Corp. NEA -Japan Polyethylene Co. NEA -
LG Chem - NEA
SK Chem - NEA
REGIONS: NA – North America SA - South America EU – Europe SEA – South East Asia NEA- North East Asia CN-China
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Metallocene Competitive LandscapeWe categorize producers in three groups In terms of Volume, Technology, and
Business Commitment First -Tier Players : Dow, ExxonMobil
Dow and ExxonMobil have the technology and first commercialization advantage
Dow and ExxonMobil are currently the market leaders Second Tier Players
Nova - mirror of Dow Chemical Company – explored Sclairtech System and BP Innovene via proprietary catalyst development
Chevron Phillips – initial successful grades set the stage for Chevron Phillips Total Petrochemical and LyondellBasell (via Equistar) developed few
grades, but the lack of R&D on metallocenes, subsequent financial situations have not helped them progress metallocene as well as they could
Westlake - Inherited the superior technology from Eastman – a combination of Eastman technology and BP Innovene-Eastman – Nova Catalyst system –Mxsten®
Mitsui is by far the most advanced – but limited to Japan and some Europe Borealis – A company that could not commercialize very well – still
positioned to commercialize soon. Other Emerging players
Korea – SK Energy, LG Chem, Daelim Thailand – SCG/Dow, Potentially PTT
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FlexPO2014
Shanghai
October 24, 2014
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Worldwide Metallocene Opportunities
U.S., Europe, Japan, and Korea will continue the production. Countries like China, ASEAN will develop metallocenes by themselves or
collaborate with U.S., Europe, Japan, or emerging technology developers likeKorea.
Converters will continue playing a big role in metallocene market penetration. Two Types of Opportunities:
Blending Opportunities Leapfrogging Opportunities
Western EuropeNorth America
South America
ME
Africa
China
Rest of Asia
Japan
Eastern Europe
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FlexPO2014
Shanghai
October 24, 2014
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C4 versus C8 Grade Development
In order to effectively compete in mPOE and mPOP – presence of Octene (C8) grades in the product portfolio is critical End-user preference – shifting towards C8 due to better
compatibility and lower density grades Most competitors offer C8 grades
Significance of producing C4 based mPOE/mPOP China and Rest of Asia – Wide use of C4 grades due to price
sensitivity Availability and price of C8 comonomer Supply security – While the supply of C4 is possible through
on purpose production, C8 on-purpose production is limited to Sasol and Dow
Supply has always been tight for C8 in Asia
Any new facility should have the ability to produce both C4 and C8 based mPOE & mPOP grades
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October 24, 2014
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Porter’s Five Forces for Plastomers and Elastomers
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Future Trends
There is significant opportunity to expand the production of mPOE and mPOP in Asia and globally Tight supply/demand Growth rates will continue to remain in the 8-10% in the next
5-10 years – Potentially higher depending on the level of penetration in the South & SE Asian markets
China & Rest of Asia will be the fastest growth markets and will contribute to the 25% of the mPOE/mPOP consumption by 2014 Potential to surpass 50% of the global demand by 2025 High Automotive growth Increasing demand in foam/footwear and polymer modification
markets
North America and Europe will continue to be the highest consumption regions in 2014 with moderate growth rates Slow growth in automotive market will be compensated by
increased EPDM replacement Demand will surpass the local supply – potential for new
entrants Portion of the new demand will be served by Asia
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FlexPO2014
Shanghai
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Discussion
Over T wo D ecades of B usiness R esearch Excellence
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