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Flood maps information content for insurance and re-insurance industries
Angela C. Taramasso and Giorgio RothGeo Risk Management Lab, University of Genoa,
Italy
SIGRAA Flood Insurance Risk Management
Integrated System
Presentation adapted from the official project documentation owner ANIA( Telespazio and AGRICUNSULTING)
Object - to develop a nation-wide integrated system to assess and manage insurance and re-insurance aspects of the flood risk
� Develops flood scenarios simulation at the national scale taking into account temporal and spatial correlation among flood-prone sites
� Combines hazard and vulnerability information through probabilistic algorithms to develop a complete portfolio flood risk assessment
� Provides a direct evaluation of insurance-specific parameters for any portfolio with confidence limits
� Web-GIS platform with high resolution geo-coding SW
� Advanced visualization features
� Identifies hierarchy of rivers segments with regards to the potential risk
� Includes and manages relevant official territorial data, including high resolution satellite data
� Includes remotely sensed surveys from laser scanner techniques for quasi-2D and 2D flood simulations
� Completes the official information where needed and computes flood forcing products (e.g. flow depth) where not available
� Data are homogenized, validated and corrected for the entire nation
Project stepStudy Areas Identification Reference Data base implementationExisting Hazard maps Collection & AnalysisEx-Novo Hazard maps production Scenarios SimulationInsurance/re-insurance risk parameters evaluationWEB-Based System Implementation
INDUSTRIAL/COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES
CLASSIFICATION
RANKING
SIGRA
Arno Basin
Historically flooded areasModeled flood prone areas
HYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC MODELINGMODELINGHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC MODELINGMODELING
HYDROLOGIC MODELINGHYDROLOGIC MODELING
Liguria Region
0.50
0.80
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
Simulated Discharge for given T/ Simulated Discharge for T = 2.9 years
Gum
bel R
educ
ed V
aria
ble
Regional TCEV
Confidence interval (95%)
Simulated Discharge
Rainfall growth Rainfall growth curve (VAPI)curve (VAPI) Design ietographDesign ietograph
SemiSemi--distributeddistributedR/R modelR/R model
Discharge Discharge growth curvegrowth curve
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0 30000 60000 90000
Time [s]
Freq
uenc
y
D5
D14D11
D10
D8
D15
D17
Hydrograph with Hydrograph with assigned return periodassigned return period
HAZARD MAPPINGHAZARD MAPPING
HYDRAULIC MODELINGHYDRAULIC MODELING
SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Pendenza, %
Tira
nte
Idric
o, m
1500
2500
StabilitàUmana
S , N/m
2 0/000
6 0/000 1 0/00 6 0/00
bassa pericolosità relativa
alta pericolosità
relativa
SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Pendenza, %
Tira
nte
Idric
o, m
1500
2500
StabilitàUmana
S , N/m
2 0/000
6 0/000 1 0/00 6 0/00
SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Pendenza, %
Tira
nte
Idric
o, m
1500
2500
StabilitàUmana
S , N/m
2 0/000
6 0/000 1 0/00 6 0/00
bassa pericolosità relativa
alta pericolosità
relativa
Idrogramma
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 60 120
180
240
300
360
420
480
540
600
660
720
780
840
900
960
1020
Tempo
Portata
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04Geom: PONTI
RS = 2.56675*
Station (m)
Elev
atio
n (m
)
Legend
WS 2 Q500
WS1 Q200
WS T50 Q50
Ground
Bank Sta
CrossCross--section descriptionsection description Hydraulic profile evolutionHydraulic profile evolution
Flooding areas Flooding areas determinationdetermination
I methodI method
II methodII method
III methodIII method
Hazard mapsHazard mapsdeterminationdetermination
Hydraulic levelHydraulic levelmapsmaps
VulnerabilityVulnerabilitycurvescurves
Vulnerability mapsVulnerability mapsdeterminationdetermination
0 200 400 600 80020
30
40
50
60
70
Varatello Plan: iscmlc
Main Channel Distance (m)E
leva
tion
(m)
Legend
WS PF 3
WS PF 2
Crit PF 3
Crit PF 2
WS PF 1
Crit PF 1
Ground
LOB
ROB
NATIONAL SCALE
SIGRA
National Scale
HAZARD MAPPINGHAZARD MAPPING
HYDRAULICHYDRAULIC MODELINGMODELING
Rainfall growth Rainfall growth curve (VAPI)curve (VAPI) Design ietographDesign ietograph SemiSemi--distributeddistributed
R/R modelR/R model
Discharge Discharge growth curvegrowth curve
Hydrograph with Hydrograph with assigned return periodassigned return period
Flooding areas Flooding areas determinationdetermination
I methodI method
II methodII method
Hazard mapsHazard mapsdeterminationdetermination
Hydraulic levelHydraulic level& velocity maps& velocity maps
VulnerabilityVulnerabilitycurvescurves
Vulnerability mapsVulnerability mapsdeterminationdetermination
Soglia Idrodinamica Tirante-Velocitàh = h (U )
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Velocità, m/s
Tira
nte
Idric
o, m 1500
2500
Stabilità umana
Spinta(N/m)
bassapericolositàrelativa
altapericolosità
relativa
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04Geom: PONTI
RS = 2.56 BR D ponte ferroviario Cuneo-Nizza
Station (m)
Ele
vatio
n (m
)
Legend
WS 2 Q500
WS1 Q200
WS T50 Q50
Ground
Bank Sta
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04Geom: PONTI
RS = 2.56675*
Station (m)
Ele
vatio
n (m
)
Legend
WS 2 Q500
WS1 Q200
WS T50 Q50
Ground
Bank Sta
CrossCross--section descriptionsection description Hydraulic profile evolutionHydraulic profile evolution
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 18000
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Torrente Letimbro Plan: Plan 04
Distanza (m)
Quo
ta s
.l.m
(m)
Legend
WS PF 3
Crit PF 3
WS PF 2
Crit PF 2
WS PF 1
Crit PF 1
Ground
LOB
ROB
URBAN SCALE
Urban Scale
Depth of water
Velocity of water
� Reference area. The analysis and the generation of flood events is performed at this scale. The Italian territory is divided in 288 reference areas.
� Event. Single flood described at the reference area scale.� Scenario. All events within a 168 hours (7 days) duration.� Historical scenario. A real scenario, observed in the past.
Historical scenarios where derived from the AVI catalog.� Synthetic scenario. A scenario generated through a statistic
model, calibrated on the basis of the large scale knowledge provided by the AVI catalog.
� AEL, PML and MPL. Annual Expected Loss, Probable Maximum Loss and Maximum Possible Loss. They are needed to price insurances and to limit the overall risk assumed by a single company.
Scen
ario
s Si
mul
atio
n
SIGRA
3/11/1966
4/11/1966
5/11/1966
6/11/1966
AVI
, Ref
eren
ce A
reas
and
H
isto
ric S
cena
rios
7/11/1966
SIGRA
BUILDING
Characteristics:
• Material
• Floor
• Maintenance
• Protections
Vulnerability Tables
The SIGRA database contains:� a map of flood prone areas. For each location it
specify flood return period and flow depth. For a single target, this is enough to evaluate hazard and insurance risk parameters.
� 100.000 synthetic scenarios characterized by a space structure statistically similar to the one provided by the AVI historic catalog;
� the portfolio for which the estimation of insurance related parameters - AEL, PML and MPL - is needed (locations, values and vulnerabilities).
Through this procedure, the portfolio is excited by the ensemble of synthetic scenarios (providing space coherence). A damage is then associated to each event within each scenario taking into account 1) flood maps information at portfolio sites (providing
actual hazard), 2) the values of the expositions and 3) their vulnerability.The damage series is finally analyzed to give AEL, PML and MPL.
Thanks for your attention
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