Flood maps information content for insurance and re-insurance industries

Angela C. Taramasso and Giorgio RothGeo Risk Management Lab, University of Genoa,

Italy

SIGRAA Flood Insurance Risk Management

Integrated System

Presentation adapted from the official project documentation owner ANIA( Telespazio and AGRICUNSULTING)

Object - to develop a nation-wide integrated system to assess and manage insurance and re-insurance aspects of the flood risk

� Develops flood scenarios simulation at the national scale taking into account temporal and spatial correlation among flood-prone sites

� Combines hazard and vulnerability information through probabilistic algorithms to develop a complete portfolio flood risk assessment

� Provides a direct evaluation of insurance-specific parameters for any portfolio with confidence limits

� Web-GIS platform with high resolution geo-coding SW

� Advanced visualization features

� Identifies hierarchy of rivers segments with regards to the potential risk

� Includes and manages relevant official territorial data, including high resolution satellite data

� Includes remotely sensed surveys from laser scanner techniques for quasi-2D and 2D flood simulations

� Completes the official information where needed and computes flood forcing products (e.g. flow depth) where not available

� Data are homogenized, validated and corrected for the entire nation

Project stepStudy Areas Identification Reference Data base implementationExisting Hazard maps Collection & AnalysisEx-Novo Hazard maps production Scenarios SimulationInsurance/re-insurance risk parameters evaluationWEB-Based System Implementation

INDUSTRIAL/COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES

CLASSIFICATION

RANKING

SIGRA

Arno Basin

Historically flooded areasModeled flood prone areas

HYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC MODELINGMODELINGHYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC MODELINGMODELING

HYDROLOGIC MODELINGHYDROLOGIC MODELING

Liguria Region

0.50

0.80

0.90

0.95

0.98

0.99

0.995

0.998

0.999

-2

0

2

4

6

8

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Simulated Discharge for given T/ Simulated Discharge for T = 2.9 years

Gum

bel R

educ

ed V

aria

ble

Regional TCEV

Confidence interval (95%)

Simulated Discharge

Rainfall growth Rainfall growth curve (VAPI)curve (VAPI) Design ietographDesign ietograph

SemiSemi--distributeddistributedR/R modelR/R model

Discharge Discharge growth curvegrowth curve

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0 30000 60000 90000

Time [s]

Freq

uenc

y

D5

D14D11

D10

D8

D15

D17

Hydrograph with Hydrograph with assigned return periodassigned return period

HAZARD MAPPINGHAZARD MAPPING

HYDRAULIC MODELINGHYDRAULIC MODELING

SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

0.01 0.1 1 10 100

Pendenza, %

Tira

nte

Idric

o, m

1500

2500

StabilitàUmana

S , N/m

2 0/000

6 0/000 1 0/00 6 0/00

bassa pericolosità relativa

alta pericolosità

relativa

SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

0.01 0.1 1 10 100

Pendenza, %

Tira

nte

Idric

o, m

1500

2500

StabilitàUmana

S , N/m

2 0/000

6 0/000 1 0/00 6 0/00

SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

0.01 0.1 1 10 100

Pendenza, %

Tira

nte

Idric

o, m

1500

2500

StabilitàUmana

S , N/m

2 0/000

6 0/000 1 0/00 6 0/00

bassa pericolosità relativa

alta pericolosità

relativa

Idrogramma

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0 60 120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

600

660

720

780

840

900

960

1020

Tempo

Portata

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04Geom: PONTI

RS = 2.56675*

Station (m)

Elev

atio

n (m

)

Legend

WS 2 Q500

WS1 Q200

WS T50 Q50

Ground

Bank Sta

CrossCross--section descriptionsection description Hydraulic profile evolutionHydraulic profile evolution

Flooding areas Flooding areas determinationdetermination

I methodI method

II methodII method

III methodIII method

Hazard mapsHazard mapsdeterminationdetermination

Hydraulic levelHydraulic levelmapsmaps

VulnerabilityVulnerabilitycurvescurves

Vulnerability mapsVulnerability mapsdeterminationdetermination

0 200 400 600 80020

30

40

50

60

70

Varatello Plan: iscmlc

Main Channel Distance (m)E

leva

tion

(m)

Legend

WS PF 3

WS PF 2

Crit PF 3

Crit PF 2

WS PF 1

Crit PF 1

Ground

LOB

ROB

NATIONAL SCALE

SIGRA

National Scale

HAZARD MAPPINGHAZARD MAPPING

HYDRAULICHYDRAULIC MODELINGMODELING

Rainfall growth Rainfall growth curve (VAPI)curve (VAPI) Design ietographDesign ietograph SemiSemi--distributeddistributed

R/R modelR/R model

Discharge Discharge growth curvegrowth curve

Hydrograph with Hydrograph with assigned return periodassigned return period

Flooding areas Flooding areas determinationdetermination

I methodI method

II methodII method

Hazard mapsHazard mapsdeterminationdetermination

Hydraulic levelHydraulic level& velocity maps& velocity maps

VulnerabilityVulnerabilitycurvescurves

Vulnerability mapsVulnerability mapsdeterminationdetermination

Soglia Idrodinamica Tirante-Velocitàh = h (U )

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Velocità, m/s

Tira

nte

Idric

o, m 1500

2500

Stabilità umana

Spinta(N/m)

bassapericolositàrelativa

altapericolosità

relativa

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04Geom: PONTI

RS = 2.56 BR D ponte ferroviario Cuneo-Nizza

Station (m)

Ele

vatio

n (m

)

Legend

WS 2 Q500

WS1 Q200

WS T50 Q50

Ground

Bank Sta

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04Geom: PONTI

RS = 2.56675*

Station (m)

Ele

vatio

n (m

)

Legend

WS 2 Q500

WS1 Q200

WS T50 Q50

Ground

Bank Sta

CrossCross--section descriptionsection description Hydraulic profile evolutionHydraulic profile evolution

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 18000

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16Torrente Letimbro Plan: Plan 04

Distanza (m)

Quo

ta s

.l.m

(m)

Legend

WS PF 3

Crit PF 3

WS PF 2

Crit PF 2

WS PF 1

Crit PF 1

Ground

LOB

ROB

URBAN SCALE

Urban Scale

Depth of water

Velocity of water

� Reference area. The analysis and the generation of flood events is performed at this scale. The Italian territory is divided in 288 reference areas.

� Event. Single flood described at the reference area scale.� Scenario. All events within a 168 hours (7 days) duration.� Historical scenario. A real scenario, observed in the past.

Historical scenarios where derived from the AVI catalog.� Synthetic scenario. A scenario generated through a statistic

model, calibrated on the basis of the large scale knowledge provided by the AVI catalog.

� AEL, PML and MPL. Annual Expected Loss, Probable Maximum Loss and Maximum Possible Loss. They are needed to price insurances and to limit the overall risk assumed by a single company.

Scen

ario

s Si

mul

atio

n

SIGRA

3/11/1966

4/11/1966

5/11/1966

6/11/1966

AVI

, Ref

eren

ce A

reas

and

H

isto

ric S

cena

rios

7/11/1966

SIGRA

BUILDING

Characteristics:

• Material

• Floor

• Maintenance

• Protections

Vulnerability Tables

The SIGRA database contains:� a map of flood prone areas. For each location it

specify flood return period and flow depth. For a single target, this is enough to evaluate hazard and insurance risk parameters.

� 100.000 synthetic scenarios characterized by a space structure statistically similar to the one provided by the AVI historic catalog;

� the portfolio for which the estimation of insurance related parameters - AEL, PML and MPL - is needed (locations, values and vulnerabilities).

Through this procedure, the portfolio is excited by the ensemble of synthetic scenarios (providing space coherence). A damage is then associated to each event within each scenario taking into account 1) flood maps information at portfolio sites (providing

actual hazard), 2) the values of the expositions and 3) their vulnerability.The damage series is finally analyzed to give AEL, PML and MPL.

Thanks for your attention