food and nutrition security in 2050 some lessons from the foodsecure project

Food and Nutrition Security in

2050: Some lessons from the

Foodsecure project

David Laborde Debucquet

IFPRI Policy Seminar, Jan 18 2017Visioning the future of Food SecurityCritical drivers to 2050, key vulnerabilities, and needed policy interventions

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 290693

• Interactive process• Overcome the limits of the Shared Socioeconomic

Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the Climate community• Quantifying Stakeholders vision

Analytical Framework

http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/WP38_scenarios.pdf

Scenario building

(stakeholders)

Quantitative assessment

(economic models)

2050 FNS Analysis

Stakeholder Integrated Research

Features: Building scenarios

Storylines

Governance

Inequalities

Diets

Quantification

Population

GDP

Yields

FOODSECURE stakeholder process

4 Foodsecure Scenarios

Illustrations

Population Yields

Modeling Framework

• The project toolbox used different simulation models from key institutions IFPRI, LEI-Wageningen Universtity, IIASA

• We use a specific version of the MIRAGRODEP Computable General Equilibrium for long term projections (from 2011 to 2050)

• Key features:– Endogenous behavior to match Stakeholders projections– Role of macroeconomic drivers e.g. Current account and

real exchange rate– Role of inequalities

• Drivers (education, factor productivity)• Implications (savings, food demand)

An heterogenous world

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

20

27

20

29

20

31

20

33

20

35

20

37

20

39

20

41

20

43

20

45

20

47

20

49

Evolution of 2nd decile compared to the average consumer, Ratio

Ecotopia

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

Increase in average per capita calories consumption

1%

Too Little Too Late

Food For All But NotForever

Prices will changeWheat Real Price, 1=2015

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

20

15

20

18

20

21

20

24

20

27

20

30

20

33

20

36

20

39

20

42

20

45

20

48

Paa

sch

eIn

dex

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e20

11

, R

MEA

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ONEPW

ECO

FFANF

TLTL

Meat Real Price, 1=2015

Wheat Real Price, 1=2015

-800,000

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

ON

EPW

ECO

FFA

NF

TLTL

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EPW

ECO

FFA

NF

TLTL

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EPW

ECO

FFA

NF

TLTL

Brazil SubSahAfrica WORLD

2050 - Pasture

2050 - Crops

Land use changes, 1000Ha

Conclusions

• Confronting stakeholders to rigorous assessment

• Role of Demographics

• Role of inequalities

• Understanding the drivers

• Beyond Agriculture: Role of Macroeconomics– Trade dimension http://www.ifpri.org/publication/macro

economics-agriculture-and-food-security-guide-policy-analysis-developing-countries