fuzzy cognitive mapping

A tool for social-ecological research and environmental management

Experiences from six European Case Studies

Martin Wildenberg, Michael Bachhofer

Mihai Adamescu, Geert De Blust, Ricardo Diaz-Delgadod, Kirsten G.Q. Isak, Flemming Skov and Riku Varjopuro

What are Social Ecological Systems?

Complex

Adaptive

We are part of them…and that's what makes them

especially messy

How to model Social Ecological Systems?

And what can FCM contribute ?

(By the way, this guy is a member of FCMappers)

How to model Social Ecological Systems?

Fuzzy Cognitive MappingHow does it work?

The case studies

Structure of maps

Structured data collection

Compare different knowledge systems

Social Learning & Education

Stakeholder involvment

Simulation

FCM Simulation in a nutshell

ji

N

jij

kj

ki

ki wAAA

1

)()()1(

= value of concept Ci at iteration step k+1

= value of concept Ci at iteration step k

= value of concept Cj at iteration step k

= weight of the link between Ci and Cj

)1( kiA

)(kiA

)(kjA

jiw

Three Scenarios

TREND

GLOB

LOC

+ Base Run

Trend

Glob

Loc

Base Run

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Trend

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Loc

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Comparison with ABM

~80% overlap in trends for three scenarios

Predicted trend in Farmers income is seen in 2008 Statistical Data

Pros - Cons

• (- )No time, no quantitative results

• (+) more process oriented• (+) participative• (+) faster

Thank You!

More information & Software at:www.FCMappers.net and yes – this site is a hobby…